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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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05/26/2017 01:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sounds like it was part of a filament that lifted off
 Quoting: Simple27


I guess, but strange language for sure, either it's a filament, a cme or a coronal hole storm but she says....the sun released a solar storm.....wtf?
 Quoting: Isis One


Dark matter they dont know much about !

not even believe it some times...
Anonymous Coward
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05/26/2017 01:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sounds like it was part of a filament that lifted off
 Quoting: Simple27


I guess, but strange language for sure, either it's a filament, a cme or a coronal hole storm but she says....the sun released a solar storm.....wtf?
 Quoting: Isis One


I found the wording strange too. Also worded as solar eruption on another video.

I suppose they aren't so sure?
 Quoting: Simple27


I think this is very interesting..........
 Quoting: Isis One


The Mistery
Isis One

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05/26/2017 01:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sounds like it was part of a filament that lifted off
 Quoting: Simple27


I guess, but strange language for sure, either it's a filament, a cme or a coronal hole storm but she says....the sun released a solar storm.....wtf?
 Quoting: Isis One


Dark matter they dont know much about !

not even believe it some times...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58787010


Cool
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/26/2017 01:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sounds like it was part of a filament that lifted off
 Quoting: Simple27


I guess, but strange language for sure, either it's a filament, a cme or a coronal hole storm but she says....the sun released a solar storm.....wtf?
 Quoting: Isis One


Dark matter they dont know much about !

not even believe it some times...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58787010


Cool
 Quoting: Isis One


its true Isis... you should know!
Helios Maximus

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05/27/2017 12:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
AR2659 has more than doubled in size (officially), yet we haven't even come close to a C-flare yet.
[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 147 Issued at 0030Z on 27 May 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2659 N14W45 043 0170 Dai 08 12 Beta

AR 2659 Still Growing-
:5/26-ar2659:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2659 (N14W45, Dai/beta) exhibited
areal growth and spot development this period but remained largely
unproductive
. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Magnetogram-
:5/26-2659_HMIBC:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/27/2017 12:52 AM
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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05/27/2017 01:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Stunning new images of Jupiter from Nasa's Juno probe reveal 'Earth-sized' cyclone-

Monstrous cyclones are churning over Jupiter's poles, until now a largely unexplored region that is more turbulent than scientists expected.

Nasa's Juno spacecraft spotted the chaotic weather at the top and bottom of Jupiter once it began skimming the cloud tops last year, surprising researchers who assumed the giant gas planet would be relatively boring and uniform down low.

"What we're finding is anything but that is the truth. It's very different, very complex," Juno's chief scientist Scott Bolton of the Southwest Research Institute said Thursday.

Pics and more here:
[link to www.telegraph.co.uk]

jupiter10/2011
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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05/27/2017 01:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


I guess, but strange language for sure, either it's a filament, a cme or a coronal hole storm but she says....the sun released a solar storm.....wtf?
 Quoting: Isis One


Dark matter they dont know much about !

not even believe it some times...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58787010


Cool
 Quoting: Isis One


its true Isis... you should know!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 58787010


I have my hunches....is that you cosmos?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 11:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3223
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1523 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2017 May 27 1530 UTC
Valid To: 2017 May 27 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.


===
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 174
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1505 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 May 27 1545 UTC
Valid To: 2017 May 27 1630 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 May 27 1446 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 11:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 220
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1546 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2017 May 27 1536 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: BOU

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
rachel3108

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05/27/2017 12:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 220
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1546 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2017 May 27 1536 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: BOU

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


Is that the proton spike that just occurred?

[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 12:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 220
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1546 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2017 May 27 1536 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: BOU

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


Is that the proton spike that just occurred?

[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: rachel3108


Yes the CME arival at ACE caused the proton spike. The earlier "IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 May 27 1446 UTC" message was the time it reached ACE as shown in your link.

You can also see the wind speed, density, magnetic field etc jump at the same time [link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]
joinca

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05/27/2017 03:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Our galaxy produces 9 trillion kilograms of antimatter a second—how?

Antimatter is rare in this Universe, but the Universe is a pretty big place, so even small quantities can add up fast. In our galaxy alone, there's a steady bath of radiation that indicates positrons are constantly running into their electron anti-partners and annihilating them. Over something the size of a galaxy, that means there are lots of the positrons around. Estimates have it that 9.1 trillion kilograms of antimatter are being destroyed each second.

The full article is here: [link to arstechnica.com (secure)]


cool2
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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05/27/2017 05:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 220
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 1546 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2017 May 27 1536 UTC
Deviation: 19 nT
Station: BOU

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


Is that the proton spike that just occurred?

[link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: rachel3108


Yes the CME arival at ACE caused the proton spike. The earlier "IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 May 27 1446 UTC" message was the time it reached ACE as shown in your link.

You can also see the wind speed, density, magnetic field etc jump at the same time [link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


SOHO Interplanetary Shock-spotter (Beware of Dog):

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Real-time Magnetopause & Bow Shock model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Weak effects thus far from the CME, but the Bz is beyond 16 South so we may see some storming.

ACE Solar Wind plots;
[link to www.solarham.net]
mag-sphere
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 06:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Anyone else spot that NOAA completely screwed up their sudden impulse expected warning?

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 May 27 1545 UTC
Valid To: 2017 May 27 1630 UTC

BUT

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2017 May 27 1536 UTC

Sudden impulse was observed 9 minutes before the warning came into effect!
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 06:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
K-index 4 now with 5 expected.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1354
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2204 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2017 May 27 2204 UTC
Valid To: 2017 May 28 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1979
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2202 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2017 May 27 2202 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 06:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
USAF Wing Kp prediction thinks we are going to 7. But then it often seems less reliable than a random number generator!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

4 hour latest prediction (in Kp) = 7.0
50% confidence interval = [5.3, 8.3]
Isis One

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05/27/2017 06:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
USAF Wing Kp prediction thinks we are going to 7. But then it often seems less reliable than a random number generator!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

4 hour latest prediction (in Kp) = 7.0
50% confidence interval = [5.3, 8.3]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


Interesting.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Helios Maximus

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05/27/2017 06:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
USAF Wing Kp prediction thinks we are going to 7. But then it often seems less reliable than a random number generator!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

4 hour latest prediction (in Kp) = 7.0
50% confidence interval = [5.3, 8.3]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


It was a very slow CME so there may be a prolonged period of geomagnetic disturbance. If the Bz stays South for a while we may see some stronger effects, but I'll be very surprised if we see a Kp of 7 (G3).

Current Solar Data:
[link to www.n3kl.org]

mag-plasmatail
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
USAF Wing Kp prediction thinks we are going to 7. But then it often seems less reliable than a random number generator!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]

4 hour latest prediction (in Kp) = 7.0
50% confidence interval = [5.3, 8.3]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


It was a very slow CME so there may be a prolonged period of geomagnetic disturbance. If the Bz stays South for a while we may see some stronger effects, but I'll be very surprised if we see a Kp of 7 (G3).

Current Solar Data:
[link to www.n3kl.org]

:mag-plasmatail:
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


May be a slow CME but it still got from ACE/DSCOVR half an hour earlier than the central NOAA forecast!

How did they do that badly with a "now casting" forecast issued half an hour in advance? The Kp 4 warning started at 15:30 but the sudden impulse at 15:45. Doesn't make sense.
Simple27

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05/27/2017 07:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I got an alert on my phone of a geomagnetic storm taking place
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Kp 5 now.

No 6 expected yet...

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1111
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2255 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2017 May 27 2255 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Kp 5 now.

No 6 expected yet...

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1111
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2255 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2017 May 27 2255 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 73634047


And here comes 6 expected now

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 386
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2320 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2017 May 27 2320 UTC
Valid To: 2017 May 28 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
6 now reached. Will we get a 7 expected?

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 432
Issue Time: 2017 May 27 2323 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2017 May 27 2322 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
chuckle
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
chuckle
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74958915


I love the way the issued the "6 expected" warning a massive 2 minutes in advance!!

ahhh
Simple27

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05/27/2017 07:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The Planetary Kindex has reached a level of 6.
A moderate geomagnetic storm is in progress.
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert...

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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05/27/2017 07:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Damn

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 07:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
chuckle
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 74958915


The Sun is Monitoring this thread and He's playing with US hihihihi
Simple27

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05/27/2017 07:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz: -20.3 nT south

[link to spaceweather.com]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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05/27/2017 08:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bz: -20.3 nT south

[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Simple27

Wing Kp projection now at 7.7 for what it's worth.

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]





GLP