SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Likewise for your updates also! Much obliged. ~

SUNSPOT AR2775: A new sunspot is growing in the sun's southern hemisphere. Numbered AR2775, it is inset in this magnetic map of the sun's surface from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: [link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

The +/- magnetic polarity of AR2775 marks it as a member of new Solar Cycle 25. About half a dozen dark cores, each about the size of the Moon, are scattered across 75,000 km of solar terrain, making AR2775 a small sunspot. Only if it continues to grow will it pose a threat for significant flares. Stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

It's very mean looking. Staring directly us too.

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]


Pepperidge farms remembers.

AURORAS WITHOUT A SOLAR STORM: Yesterday, there was no solar flare, no coronal mass ejection (CME), no solar activity of any kind. Then this happened:
[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

"On Oct. 11th we saw this amazing outburst," reports Markus Varik of Tromsø Norway. "We headed out with a small group of adventurers on what seemed like Mission Impossible. There was no hope of finding auroras. But never say 'never.' We got the complete palette of colors."

There is an explanation: Just as Varik headed out, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field. Slow-moving solar wind poured through the gap, sparking auroras. This kind of unpredictable display can happen at any time around the Arctic Circle, where magnetic cracks often surprise observers--no solar storm required.
[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

Wow it looks more intense than a regular Aurora. ~ Wonder what would happen if there WAS a Flare or CME when these 'cracks' occur.

And apparently totally okay to stand underneath...

...or totally okay in general somehow.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

Okay it's looking really mean today and just has a plasma flare up. Has grown from what it looks like and is clearly heating up rapidly.

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Magneto gram , two clearly defined black cores. And they're arcing.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Can see the plasma arc here too at the very beginning of the 171 loop.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

RARE RED AURORAS: Arctic photographer Rayann Elzein sees auroras all the time over Utsjoki, Finland. But the auroras he saw last night were different. "They were red," he says. "Almost only red."

"Rarely have I seen anything like this before," says Elzein. "I double-checked the white balance on my camera to make sure nothing was wrong. But it was the same color temperature as on all my other northern lights pictures."

[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

This storm is killing me. Yikes.

Anyone know which particles cause red aurora?

Edit, looked it up, oxygen but at very high altitudes (over180 miles up)

Last Edited by Isis One on 10/13/2020 01:09 AM

S-27....I TRIED TO POST TO THIS LATE LAST NIGHT OR EARLY THIS MORNING..BUT, I GOTZ DA...BANE...PROB. FROM SOME OTHER THREAD.

I WAS TRYING THEN TO SAY .....UNDER A BLOOD RED SKY. UH. CAPS.

Flux is still lifting big time , huge spikes over the past 24 hours and a gradual uplifting of the steady mean on short to long.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

2775 highly destabilized - multiple flare ups and plasma bursts today. We are still in the red zone for this one.

Can also see ANOTHER MASSIVE sunspot already formed and coming around on the southern hemisphere at the same longitude as 2775

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

And this is all evident in the flux level - Which continues to see a consistent, slowly gradual lift at increasingly greater intensity of spikes over the past 24 hours and is only showing further indication of continuing to rise.

We have as much impacting us as if there was a B-class flare - but there isn't even a flare

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Continuum image shows just how destabilized the region is on that sunspot coming around to us.

The very , very center of it's core is even showing up as a red dot because it's so big.



[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Also here is a gif taken from the SUVI real time - retrograde Mercury (I think) blocking out the camera for about 30-45 minutes.

Happened again today also can see it on the SUVI hourly.

[imgur] [link to imgur.com (secure)]

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Looks like Russia is ahead in the space race - unless I missed NASA's mention of this..............

Russian scientists predict that a magnetic storm is approaching Earth on October 20 and will last for several days, reaching its highest intensity peak on October 25

According to the forecast, the initial class G1 magnetic storm will begin on October 20 and intensify from 21 to the 25, when it reaches its highest peak, the G2. After that, the Earth’s magnetosphere will be under a strong magnetic storm for three days and on October 29 it will normalize.

[link to www.revyuh.com (secure)]

They use the Enlil model to make these long term forecasts

MORE RED AURORAS: "Is this the new normal?" wonders Rayann Elzein of Utsjoki, Finland. "For the second night in a row, we have photographed red auroras--an extremely rare event."

[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

In the night of Oct. 13th, auroras appeared out of nowhere, and immediately, I noticed that the green layer was topped by a red layer!" says Elzein. "The same thing happened on Oct. 12th."


[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]


[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

How are they able to predict a magnetic storm? Not aware of any values they could be basing this off of. Enjoying your posts AC. Love how you bring life to the data!

Last Edited by Isis One on 10/15/2020 01:24 AM

Ha, answered my question, Tx.

Last Edited by Isis One on 10/15/2020 01:24 AM

Oh thank you for sharing , good to know! ~ Never heard of or paid attention to the model that NASA does indeed have and they probably just never look at it either.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Only up to the 20th but it looks rough.





Thank you! Surely you know it IS all life though we might disagree on the particulars of how it came to being and our purpose of adherence. ~

And that was a different AC who fortunately answered because I didn't even know what that is myself!

But yes apparently NASA does have the Enlil model for their solar wind prediction center. We seem to be in the middle of a crossfire - yet somehow in a very narrow least affected zone - which is still going to be affected.

I would of course speculate that no model is 100% accurate and certainly could be less , or more , severe than they can calculate. ~

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Sunspot 2776 official

So as we leave the red zone of 2775 , the massive one in approach has been dubbed 2776.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Unlike the previous threatening sunspots we've had these past couple months , this one was already formed long before the others , it is much bigger and being aged very much increases the chances of an eruption while we're in the red zone.

Still NO OFFICIAL UPDATE OR WARNINGS from NASA's alert center , however we continue to see volatile spikes in the flux and average threshold maximums consistently increasing and probably because it's automatic - the events are auto-updating.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

It probably will become the new normal for the immediate future at least! Pretty good indicator of things as well when these rare celestial events are taking place with sudden frequency.

Right up in time for whatever happens , seen or unseen , on October 31. ~

GROWING SUNSPOT: New-cycle sunspot AR2776 has quadrupled in size since it first appeared on Oct. 14th. It is not yet large enough to pose a threat for strong solar flares, but it is a good target for backyard solar telescopes.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

EPIC RED AIRGLOW: It looks like auroras, but it's not. On Oct. 12th, photographer Ruslan Merzlyakov went to Thy National Park Thy in northern Denmark for a good view of the Milky Way. This is what he saw instead:

[imgur] [link to i.imgur.com (secure)]

"To my surprise, this epic red airglow rippled across the entire sky," says Merzlyakov.

Airglow is caused by chemical reactions in the upper atmosphere.

[link to spaceweather.com (secure)]

Couple of C Flares:

https://imgur.com/a/lSV6Vme

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

SUVI viewer caught them , lower right. It actually looks like the same eruption point generated two flares back to back , even created a retraction.

[link to weather.msfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Doesn't look like the ENLIL model saw that one coming either. ~