SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Upcoming spot has a nice loop, big loop.

[link to ibb.co (secure)]

This cycle has started somewhat fast. If december holds more than 30 spots avg, and it continues to show activity, by the end of next year it could be 150-200. It this pace keeps even brief momentum.

SPOTLESS NO MORE

Old ar2786 has returned today and has been re-numbered AR2974.

From official Dept. of Commerce website-

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was very low. A new spotted region rotated onto the SE
limb and was numbered Region 2794 (S17E78, Hsx/alpha). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 356 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Dec 2020
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2794 S17E78 347 0120 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
2792 S22W43 108
2793 S15W20 085
II. Regions Due to Return 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

***So far no flaring and old '86 seems to be the same gentle giant we remember from last rotation. Pure Alpha now.


Have a peek for yourself via SDO:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 12/20/2020 10:23 PM

Yes, old '86 still has a sizable magnetic footprint. Check it out in the AIA 171a movie:

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Cycle 25 has barely begun... both M-flares detected were from the far side and the Northern hemisphere has barely produced a spot yet.

The Sun is a chaotic system and we'll see great outbursts and strange lulls in activity. It's truly amazing to live at a time when we have such advanced sensing mechanisms in place and, for the most part, accessible to the public and billions around the globe.

Heliophysics is one of the few cutting-edge sciences you can research in real-time from your laptop or phone.

I 'm thrilled to see a non-spotless day!



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 12/20/2020 10:47 PM

Great find, OE. I hope he's correct, as this is last solar cycle I'll be alive to witness, LOL.

I almost always find MSM articles about solar activity to cringeworthy and stupid. At least this reporter highlighted that our knowledge of the sun's mechanics is rudimentary at best (and probably completely wrong).

Mr. McIntosh has a novel view of solar magnetism and he seems to put forth a plausible theory. This is why we WATCH...so much is yet to be learned about Sol

If we can't figure out how the sun operates, how can we pretend to know how trillions of other stars function? Quasars, Pulsars, Magnetars, Black Holes, Red Giants, etc.,...????

We really don't know crap.

From the above linked article-

For now, the panel has remained quiet about his research, but McIntosh says that — if his predictions are realized — the field will have a lot of work to do.
“This work is pointing in a direction which says much of the past physics isn’t quite right,” he said. “If we’re right, it points to a quite different way in how the sun works.”

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: A minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storm is possible on Dec. 23rd when a fast-moving stream of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a northern hole in the sun's atmosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the solar wind arrives.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

https://imgur.com/2sqwmUC

I think it came early.

I'm proud to announce before SWPC we have a new sunspot which I'll take the liberty to name AR2795. I believe its the return of 2789 (maybe). Neither NOAA nor SolarHam has it listed as a returning region.

Latest HMI intensitigram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

More good news-

We may have a new active region in the northern hemisphere. This AR appears very bright in the STEREO Ahead EUVI and will come over in a few days time.

Courtesy of our friends at SOLARHAM.com:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 12/22/2020 11:30 PM

Good eye, Hugh!

Merry Christmas to you, GLP darling!

Merry Christmas!

Wow!

New AR 2795 has a pulse. A dozen B-flares including a B7 and 2 B6's.

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

It may be a Beta-Gamma, more complex than 2794.

HMI Latest Magnetogram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 359 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Dec 2020
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2794 S16E40 346 0180 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
2795 S17E67 319 0040 Cro 09 06 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
2792 S22W85 111
2793 S15W62 088
II. Regions Due to Return 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
2790 S22 267

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 12/24/2020 12:11 AM

Why is HPI so high?

50.9 GW

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Solar wind
speed: 592.3 km/sec
density: 2.3 protons/cm3

Merry Christmas Everyone

A MAGNETIC CANYON THE SIZE OF MARS: Sunspot AR2795 is splitting apart. A magnetic canyon as wide as Mars has formed in the sunspot's leading core, shown here in a composite image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://imgur.com/eS8VT2I

Sunspots are islands of magnetism floating on the surface of the sun. AR2795 looks a bit like Hawaii. SDO's magnetic map reveals a deep fissure in the "Big Island." This could be a sign of intensifying turbulence in the magnetic dynamo deep beneath the sunspot. If so, more fractures may be in the offing.

Amateur astronomers with safely-filtered solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

THE LAST AURORAS OF 2020: A stream of solar wind is heading for Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Dec. 29th. The minor jet of gas flowing from a small hole in the sun's atmosphere might be enough to spark the last auroras of 2020 around the Arctic Circle.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Merry Christmas Simple and every one!!

AURORA SURPRISE: There were no geomagnetic storms on Dec. 26th. So where did these auroras come from? "Last night, the Northern Lights made a remarkable appearance over Utsjoki in the far north of Finland," reports Rayann Elzein, who photographed the display in temperatures that plunged to -36 C:

https://imgur.com/KBvs7dK

"It was so cold ... but worth the chill to witness this beautiful show," says Elzein. "For about 30-40 minutes, the auroras danced overhead with super fast movements. The highlight was a bright purple nitrogen fringe!"

Elzein lives in the right place to see auroras without geomagnetic storms. The Finnish Lapland is located beneath Earth's persistent auroral oval. A gentle rain of solar wind electrons, guided to Earth by our planet's curved magnetic field, creates a polar ring of Northern Lights that intersects the latitude of Utsjoki. Often dim but sometimes surprisingly bright, auroras appear there on most dark nights--no storm required.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SUNSPOTS AT SUNRISE: As 2020 comes to an end, photographers are starting to notice something they haven't seen in a while: little black spots. "I saw them at sunrise this morning in the Alps," says Michel Willemin who sends this picture from Plateau de Diesse, Switzerland:

https://imgur.com/xHhTS81

"Two sunspot groups were clearly visible," he says.

For much of the past 4 years, Solar Minimum has supressed the production of sunspots, keeping the solar disk blank and featureless. "The re-appearance sunspots in 2020 is a clear sign of rising solar activity," notes Willemin. Indeed, Solar Cycle 25 is rapidly gaining steam; 2021 promises many more "little black spots" and, with them, solar flares, CMEs, and geomagnetic storms. Sunrise is just the beginning.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Guys I have a question that you will probably laugh at me for asking but need to ask anyway as I don’t know the answer, but if we had a carrington style event of some sort that knocked out the power grid globally, what would happen to all the nuclear reactors around the world?

It's a good question. It's on a lot of peoples minds, I'm sure.

Bottom line is in time they would all melt down.
Not sure currently what type of back up (cooling) systems they have been working on recently. But over time (6mths?)they would be toast.

That’s kind of what I thought, thank you for answering, I appreciate it .

That’s kind of what I thought, thank you for answering, I appreciate it .

diesel generators would still work to run pumps for cooling water; they would be ok, probably..

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: NOAA forecasters say there is a chance of geomagnetic unrest today, Dec. 30th, when a minor stream of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field. The gaseous material is flowing from a small hole in the sun's atmosphere. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially during the hours around local midnight.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

On January 2nd at 8:51am EDT

Earth Will Reach Its Closest Point to the Sun this Weekend


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]