Jim Berkland´s Earthquake Forecast - Aug 17-24th

Contributed by Jim Berkland
Thursday, 11 August 2005
The August 17-24, 2005 Seismic Window includes the last of only three perigean spring tides this year, where a syzygy is less than 25 hours from perigee.

The full Moon of August 19 comes only 12 hours after a very close lunar perigee of less than 223,000 miles. The slightly closer perigee and full Moon of July 21 were triggers for abundant seismic activeity and my record for the July Window was four of four, including the only major quake in the world since June 15th (to date).


The rare 4.2M quake near Los Angeles on July 24th had only an 18% chance of occurring and it frustrated a critical former USGS employee who had bet me that it would not occur. He agreed tp pay the price by no longer harassing me daily on my Website, with his ill-conceived charges of "liar" or "fraud".


A 3.6M quake struck 120 miles SE of Mt. Diablo on July 24th.


Several quakes of 3.1-3.3M struck Mt. St. Helens on July 21-22.


A 7.2M quake near the Nicobar Islands on July 24th was the only major quake in the world from June 15 thru Aug 10th, and counting.

For August 17-24, 2005 I predict with 80% confidence that there will be one or more earthquakes meeting each of the following criteria:


1) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Mt. Diablo (37.9N; 121.9W)


2) 3.5-6.5M within 140 miles of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W)


3) 3.0-5.5M with an epicentral address of Washington of Oregon.


4) 7.0+M major quake globally, probably in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where about 80% of the world´s strongest quakes have occurred in the past.


Also my prediction for a 6.0+M quake for California this year has already been met by the 7.2 and 6.7M quakes west of Eureka on June 14th, but I am extending my predicition for Southern California based upon the second greatest seasonal rainfall (37.25") n Los Angeles just three years after the record drought of 2001-2002 when only 4.35" fell during the entire season.



I should note that there were record floods in the Mojave Desert in the spring of 1992, followed by the 7.3M Landers quake on June 28, 1992, the day before a total solar eclipse (perfect syzygy.)

Also significant is the 1979 article by USC scientists (Uand, McRaney, Teng and Prebish) entitled A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (in) "Earthquake Prediction and Seismicicy Patterns" by Max Wyss (Birkhauser Verlag.) These authors found that all twelve quakes of 6+M in the Mojave Desert area between 1915-1917 were preceded by a pattern of one or more drought years followed by a year with excessive rainfall (with a seismic lag time of 4 to 24 months.)


I used the same effect when I predicted in late 1983 that a 6+M quake would hit Santa Clara County during 1984 (probably in March, April or October) because of the all-time record rainfall for San Jose in 1983. No such quake had struck since 1911, and it had followed a record January rainfall of 12.5".


The former record precipitation year had been 1889. Amazingly, in each case (1889 and 1983) the year following the two record rainfall years was the occasion for rare quakes of 6.6 and 6.2M. Even more amazing is that both of those quakes were on April 24rh.


Southern California is due this year for another 6+. Is this the month?

link

[link to syzygyjob.net]