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Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.

 
Greg_B.
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03/14/2011 11:29 PM
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Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
So many threads, so many exlaimation points. Enough. In this thread, we compile only substantiated information about the Japan situation and discuss *rationally* what the possible scenarios are for the rest of the world.

I know nothing about Nuclear Energy, Power Plants, or economics. My job here will be to watch the thread and mod anything that sounds like s.w.a.g. or paranoia.

The foremost thing on everyone's mind, I'm guessing, is are we in trouble in the U.S. from this radiation? Or will it be contained and peter out in Japan and over the Ocean?

How might it affect the ocean and it's life?

How screwed is Japan, in reality?
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
hIndsIght

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03/14/2011 11:30 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
DOOM! 5a




Just kidding, the situation is horrific.
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:34 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
I just heard them say that the radiation is immediately affecting health so Im guessing it's very bad,if its immediate.
Greg_B.  (OP)

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03/14/2011 11:37 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
How quickly can that spread, in Japan? It's a pretty small place, Japan, how long until it's just everywhere over there? Is anyone safe in Japan?
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:37 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Good Thread.

Two items:

1. Japanese Leaders did not instruct individuals to use copious amounts of soap and water to wash off if they were exposed and/or live within the 30km. Why didn't they tell people to do this? Instead they told them to simply "dust off", and seemed more concern for air-dried laundry.

2. #4 Reactor houses 783 spent fuel rods.
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:39 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Theory : They delayed necessary actions because they were hoping to save the reactors.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1266868
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03/14/2011 11:41 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Nobody has a clue. What sources can you trust? Theoretically a BWR is designed to contain a melt down if it ever occured. Now we are hearing reports that they can not keep water in the containment vessel indicating it's not intact. I dont know if it was bad design, bad mateials used for construction, or just radioactive steam being vented. If you start hearing reports from credible sources that we have rates above 1 CGy/hr Japan is in deep trouble and depending on duration and weather other nations may be too. At present all I've seen is speculation with no data from the so called experts.
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:43 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Good Thread.

Two items:

1. Japanese Leaders did not instruct individuals to use copious amounts of soap and water to wash off if they were exposed and/or live within the 30km. Why didn't they tell people to do this? Instead they told them to simply "dust off", and seemed more concern for air-dried laundry.

2. #4 Reactor houses 783 spent fuel rods.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1094616


Whats your source for 783 fuel rods. That is over 3 tons of material.
Greg_B.  (OP)

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03/14/2011 11:43 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Theory : They delayed necessary actions because they were hoping to save the reactors.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1272930


Or at least contain the situation.
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
Greg_B.  (OP)

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03/14/2011 11:45 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
Nobody has a clue. What sources can you trust? Theoretically a BWR is designed to contain a melt down if it ever occured. Now we are hearing reports that they can not keep water in the containment vessel indicating it's not intact. I dont know if it was bad design, bad mateials used for construction, or just radioactive steam being vented. If you start hearing reports from credible sources that we have rates above 1 CGy/hr Japan is in deep trouble and depending on duration and weather other nations may be too. At present all I've seen is speculation with no data from the so called experts.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1266868

My feeling is that there aren't all that many experts, and those who are may not be in a position to talk.

"Designed to Contain a Meltdown" sounds a LOT like "Unsinkable Ship" and we know how that sort of story tends to go.
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:48 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
The disturbance in the force will be felt globally..

I don't see how it's physically possible to evac 13 Million (greater Tokyo) when it gets to that. Seriously, sobering times to come. It will take generations to heal the trauma locally and perhaps globally.

I don't care who/what 'God' anybody has.. or none at all..
'pray' if you will, in your own ways for the sake of humanity. These are human beings. Compassion. It IS in all of us for a reason.

It is only just beginning.
Anonymous Coward
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03/14/2011 11:52 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
They have had plenty of time to get the data. Either from ground emplaced equipment or aerial. The lack of any timely reporting makes my suspect it's bad news. The asian culture of saving face isn't helping either.
Greg_B.  (OP)

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03/14/2011 11:56 PM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
The disturbance in the force will be felt globally..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1295356


Interesting you use that phrase. The exact time of the quake I woke up and couldn't go back to sleep. Had no idea what was happening and didn't find out until several hours later. I'm in Detroit, nowhere remotely near it. Did I feel a disturbance in the force?
I'm not too fond of Signatures. Why would I want to end every post the same way?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2011 12:04 AM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
The disturbance in the force will be felt globally..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1295356


Interesting you use that phrase. The exact time of the quake I woke up and couldn't go back to sleep. Had no idea what was happening and didn't find out until several hours later. I'm in Detroit, nowhere remotely near it. Did I feel a disturbance in the force?
 Quoting: Greg_B.


Indeed Sir.
and your personna/presence feels familiar..
ever been a shoddie?
(if you dont understand, its ok, just ignore.)
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2011 12:10 AM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
I personally believe this can still go either way, what we have not seen thus far is a massive sustained release of radiological materials into the atmosphere. The thermal imaging available these days is phenomenal and even from a satellite the heat plume signature of an open ongoing dispersal would be quite glaring... heck even the FLIR (IR) units on most military helicopters can pick up heat signatures or in this case a potential plume from quite a very long way away.

Using Chernobyl as an example... a significant mass of radiological material was ejected 3000+ ft straight into the air and prevailing winds carried that materials aloft and deposited it all over Europe.

We have not seen this so far... no plumes, no excessive heat signatures, no nearby countries detecting high concentrations in the air.

If it gets hot enough in 1, 2, or 3 to melt through the 6in thick walls of the tempered molybdenum-manganese-nickel alloy reactor vessels then you will surely be able to detect heat plumes of radiolocical materials escaping from those reactors.

If there is a full blown reactor breach(s) and a giant cloud of material is sent aloft from any or all of these reactors then estimates are anywhere from 4-8 days to cross the pacific and reach North America. The further it has travels the better for human lives in North America. The death rates drop significantly for every mile it has to travel. The long term consequences for the Japanese Mainland are dire if this happens, the effective impact on Marine life in the Pacific would be somewhat different. Remember this is not like a little poison fouling a large body of water, you have to get this inside of you physically for it to cause damage to a biological system man, fish, whale, or anything. It will enter the food chain but at what levels remains to be seen.

I'm still optimistic that they are gradually reducing the temps at 1, 2, and 3 thus reducing the odds that these three are totally out of control. The fire at #4 and possible storage of spent fuel rods... is another story.
Armchair Agent
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03/15/2011 12:15 AM
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Re: Sanity Only: Discuss reality of Japan situation rationally. Moderated.
The radioactive isotopes will contaminate the cleanup effort and of course because so many of the reactors are in meltdown condition giving off lethal doses of radiation they can't even get close enough to pump water on them anymore.

I believe it will progress to a level like Chernobyl only worse since the Japanese are to smart to send people in on suicide missions.

The cores will melt through their steel casings and start sinking into the ground. When they get deep enough, Japan will bomb the area and then when the dust settles pour huge amounts of concrete over the area to prevent further explosive radiation emissions.

The area will be unlivable for at least 50 years. Huge human and economic toll, with birth defects and people getting terminal cancer for years to come. Not to mention the amount of radioactivity that will be spread via the jet stream which could even affect the West Coast.

It is REAL WORLDWIDE DOOMAGE!!! look at the hit the Asian stock markets are already taking.

[link to finance.yahoo.com]

I put this up NOT because I'm one of them, but because that is who's in charge and it will be apparent in this century.

Idol1





GLP