Tropical Depression TWELVE-They are showing straight into Florida, now Hurricane Katrina, now saying 9 dead, now Cat 5

Right into Florida... not much warning or me seeing this days in advance *sigh*
Cant catch um all...

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Peace

Oh wow... a tropical depression. Excuse me while I continue about my daily life.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800
FT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS
A SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY
INDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT
FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE
GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION
OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB
DATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48
HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE
WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON
CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO
EASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE
CENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY
THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A
PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY
INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A
REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY´S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE
DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS
SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR´S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH
THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE
THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.

FORECASTER STEWART

Peace

Oh wow! Continue on then!
This might form into something more then just a depression....
Its always good to keep an eye on...

Peace

this is the EXACT LOCATION where Hurricane Andrew formed exactly 13 years ago tomorrow, August 24th, and within 24 hours it was a category 5, and you know the rest of the story

right now the ocean temperature there in the southeast atlantic at the coastline is 89 degrees, take a look at this sea temp map link

[link to www.weather.com]

and the sun has sent us three M-class flares today, which will be arriving earth shortly

----- Quote -----
this is the EXACT LOCATION where Hurricane Andrew formed exactly 13 years ago tomorrow, August 24th, and within 24 hours it was a category 5, and you know the rest of the story
-----------------

Wrong... Hurricane Andrew became a tropical depression on August 16, and a full-fledged hurricane on August 22. It made *landfall* on August 24.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Here was it´s path:
[link to www.hurricaneadvisories.com]

As you can see, Andrew reached hurricane strength much further out than this current tropical depression is located.

OMFG! The 12th tropical depression!

If this keeps up, there´s likely to be:

a) Another tropical depression! OMFG!!!

b) More End Of The World predictions!!! OMFG!!!

c) More errant earthquake and volcano reports!!! OMFG!!!

d) All of the above!!! OMFG!!!

"----- Quote -----
this is the EXACT LOCATION where Hurricane Andrew formed exactly 13 years ago tomorrow, August 24th, and within 24 hours it was a category 5, and you know the rest of the story
-----------------

Wrong... Hurricane Andrew became a tropical depression on August 16, and a full-fledged hurricane on August 22. It made *landfall* on August 24."

They are ALWAYS wrong. It´s uncanny how consistent they are in their postdictions, innit?

8945 When was the last time we had 12 tropical depressions by this time in the Hurricane Season?

Peace

----- Quote -----
8945 When was the last time we had 12 tropical depressions by this time in the Hurricane Season?
-----------------

Seems every year someone asks that question, and every year it´s not quite as "OMGWTF!" as you people would like us to believe...

So Earth420, do you still believe that they name tropical depressions?

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...SAN SALVADOR...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT
160 MILES... 255 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.3 N... 75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB


Yes guys... Im glad of how you think of me... it will come quite handy in this future of ours...

We have not in recorded history had this many!! Thats what I thought! Touch on me, Ill touch on you, its all good in the neighborhood...


Peace

[link to www.hurricaneadvisories.com]



[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

Compare the two and you will see, tropical depression 12 has plenty of time to become a major hurricane.

Checked it out. No big deal, maybe thats why you didnt sense it. The big boys should be shortly spinning off of the African Coast...

Do you have good links for those off of Africa? Sats or what homie?

Thanks!

Peace

"8945 When was the last time we had 12 tropical depressions by this time in the Hurricane Season?"

A few years back. It was in all the papers!!!

Where were you? Everyone was talking about it.

Of course, TPTB don´t wan´t people to recollect and all that paranoid shit.

Clim Hazzard, and OTHER "debunkers,"
it´s not WHAT you say that is annoying and hurtfull...it´s HOW you say it.

why not try to tone it down a bit? Otherwise, you might piss me off and i´ll have to find you and kick your pathetic little ass.

Be nice to people...or reap it.

dave

12 = 9+1+1+1

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]

It has a bunch of different Satellite shots. If you go to the bottom left hand side, the eastern Atlantic...It is updated every 6 hours.

The main site is noaa.gov
click on NOAA national Hurricane center

Then left hand scroll side click on Satellite Imagary

8945 do you have links please?

Thanks! We will have more this year then any other, break all records that we have kept in our recorded history...

and why?
Bottom line, global warming, from the inside out!

Peace

H A A R P

OFFICIAL GLP EMOTICON FOR HAARP:

#####

[link to images.google.com]


looks just like it

Hmmm Zazz... Im pulling

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

What does it mean though.... just drawn to this sat... Just throwin out!

Peace

Testing the new version... Just pop one up out of nowhere

You can see them spin up coming off of the coast of Africa, starting to spin and feeder bands starting to form. It was a suprise to see a couple form very early this year. It will be interesting to see what will come spinning off of Africa this year in the Sept/Oct timeframe.

Unless, and I dont think this is the case the water and atmosphere flow has changed just enough to start things up eariler in the season. We will see though!!!

for the person above --i have some links of Andrew(its actual trac etc) and other stuff on my site--might help --

www.AdMalls.com ----it updates a lot

What will be interesting about this depression will be what it does after it crosses Florida and re-enters the Gulf of Mexico!!!

Hi everyone,this isn´t a joke,there is a real threat of this becoming a hurricane before it even reaches Florida.

Let´s do a small equation,slow moving depression(now TS likely)+hot waters+relaxing shear= SYSTEM SHOULD GET STRONGER!!!!

The labor day hurricane of 1935 went from being a tropical storm to a possible 200mph hurricane,central pressure estimated at 892mbs,the only other hurricane to go sub 900 was Gilbert,which got down to 888mbs.

Of course the atmopsheric condtions aren´t good enough for it to do that sort of bombing but at the speed its moving at it has a good 48hrs over hot waters close to the Gulf stream.ULL that is still giving some shear(although this is relaxing)looks like its heading away so shear should decrease and with SSt´s hot and it mocing so slowly its only a matter of time before it undergoes decent organisation with a few decent convective bursts,keep watch of this both Florida and all GOM coasts.

Just so all know,expect next advisory to call for TD-12 to become Katrina,recon found winds at flight level just recently of 48mph,at 925mbs which should equal about 40mph at surface level,so expect a 35kt TS,providing no stronger winds are found,and with another 48hrs over sea and in ever better condtions,a category-1 hurricane heading to the north of Miami is likely,then out to the GOM as a moderate TS before re-organising and having a shot at becoming a major hurricane,depending on track of course!!!

It need sto be watched,it certainly isn´t doomsday,but it may just cause alot of mess.

[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]