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markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming

 
Houstonian
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05/04/2011 02:17 PM
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markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
and this is likely the only chance the FED et.al. have of keeping the US Dollar from collapsing ... food, gas, insurance and taxes will still go up ... but everything that can be used as collateral for financing is going down
Anonymous Coward
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05/04/2011 02:19 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
and this is likely the only chance the FED et.al. have of keeping the US Dollar from collapsing ... food, gas, insurance and taxes will still go up ... but everything that can be used as collateral for financing is going down
 Quoting: Houstonian


markets never go in a straight line. Commodity markets have been going up since 2000 and will continue to go up, and down, but in the longer term context of up.
Anonymous Coward
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05/04/2011 02:22 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
real estate market in complete freefall, what used to be $1,000,000 homes now selling for $250,000 obo and still nobody is buying them.
Houstonian  (OP)

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05/04/2011 02:23 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
just watch the US Dollar and the Long Bonds ... this looks like 1987 in MACRO
Anonymous Coward
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05/04/2011 02:25 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
the economy could slow down for real

inflation is eroding purchasing power, higher interest rates are making financing harder and more costly to get

several european countries are going to introduce some major austerity programs, which will also reduce demand

in china inflation is already an issue, real estate prices are very very high and a lot of debt has been issued also outside of the banking system - it´s not hard to foresee problems

in that case, commodities would go down a lot!
Anonymous Coward
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05/04/2011 02:25 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
gotta justify QE3!
Anonymous Coward
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05/04/2011 02:26 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
real estate market in complete freefall, what used to be $1,000,000 homes now selling for $250,000 obo and still nobody is buying them.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1345541


Link or stink
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
05/04/2011 02:28 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
just watch the US Dollar and the Long Bonds ... this looks like 1987 in MACRO
 Quoting: Houstonian


when problems in the european union start to make headlines again, the euro could depreciate markedly

that would prop up the dollar

if at the same time commodities slump, the impression could be that the dollar is rebounding and inflation is slowing. it could give some confidence in the dollar again (at least temporarily), even though nothing really has improved
Houstonian  (OP)

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05/04/2011 03:34 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
just watch the US Dollar and the Long Bonds ... this looks like 1987 in MACRO
 Quoting: Houstonian


when problems in the european union start to make headlines again, the euro could depreciate markedly

that would prop up the dollar

if at the same time commodities slump, the impression could be that the dollar is rebounding and inflation is slowing. it could give some confidence in the dollar again (at least temporarily), even though nothing really has improved
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1369940



at this point in the economic cycle ... commodity prices could collapse and initiate a deflationary rout ... just the thing ole' Bernanke says he has been avoiding, from what I can see, there is little chance of avoiding it

reality point is that if the FED et.al. do initiate a QE3 the US Dollar will likely fall to @50-55 on the Index, crude will hit 180$/bbl and unemployment will spike too
Houstonian  (OP)

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05/05/2011 01:50 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
looks like it is just beginning
Houstonian  (OP)

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05/17/2011 12:12 PM
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Re: markets are acting like a severe hard asset deflation wave is coming
looks even worse now ... this spasm higher in the $ can result in a very sharp down move to new lows and still have a deflationary environment. it is going to be very difficult to stimulate any aspect of the economy, expect unemployment to spike higher very soon





GLP