Tropical Depression SIXTEENRight next to Florida right now- Now Ophelia, NOW UNPREDICTABLE!Now Hurricane status-Will be a Hurricane when She hits land

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Keeping an eye on this area as well....

Hmmmm.... better pic of Ophelia in a sense...
Just throwin out!

Peace

Ophelia will soon become a hurricane!

Zetas right again!



This is the 15th tropical storm/hurricane of the season, and we are just in the middle of the season!

Zetas rock!

I guess it depends on whos weather technology wins

[link to www.weatherwars.info]

tomarrow is 9/9 and 9/11 is right around the corner

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Looking now the red eye became more apparent...

Peace

Good work Earth420 :)

Keep it up.

The red is NOT the eye - the eye of a hurricane is a comparatively peaceful area. The red is the most active part. If you see a nice blue or white hole open up in the center of Ophelia on this type of imagery, THEN you´re seeing the eye (and also signs that Ophelia is turning into a major hurricane, which so far - thankfully - it is not).

Yes, the Zetas did predict this, didn´t they?

Hold onto your hats!

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHEILA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM COCOA BEACH NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. RAIN BANDS WITH STRONG WINDS IN SQUALLS
HAVE BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Peace

Still trying to figure on her path....

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER
VELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT. THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE
SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST. A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST
MEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE. THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. OPHELIA IS OVER
WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM AROUND 18Z.

STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY. OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS. THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-
SCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION. HOWEVER THE GFS
AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
NEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD
MOTION. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH

Peace

wind, rain, today, tomorow......

[link to radar.weather.gov]

System is already south of the forecast track by NHC,and as is being said moving nowhere fast,infact its barely drifting under very light steering currents.

Track is a right bastard to try and forecast as its moving SO slowly,however most models want this storm to do the loop and then surge back westwards as a ridge builds in from the east and north.but its not moving northwards like NHc,although may try and contniue to kid themslef it is,its clear as day its not moving north on radar.

Infact I´m shocked that I´ve not heard anything about thjis storm,a strong ridge like what is being shown by the models is what caused Jeanne to do the loop-de-loop last year,Looks like this system might try and do the same thing,provided it doesn´t keep drifting westwards into Florida!!!

It´s certainly going nowhere fast and is going to keep us all guessing for at least the next five days as to its actual track,but I wouldn´t completely bet against this storm eventually find its way into the Gulf,and there is the eventual risk of another NO hurricane,but thats a long way down the line and may not even landfall in Florida,may make landfall as far north as the Carolinas or as far south as S.Florida,although thats looking ultra unlikely now when it does eventually do a loop much of the southern East Coast will once again be put under the gun of Ophelia.

I see what you mean 410…

And also the likely paths this may take we wont know for sure on for maybe days now…

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

And maybe she’ll become a strong hurricane depending on any loops she makes….

Peace

Do I know you 410? "Person who knows weather"?

Hmmmm??

Peace

You are the best Earth! Keep us informed, we are watching and listening now.

Kisses

Kisses to you as well sweetheart! I really like to watch these things, but especially when they aren’t predictable! hehe

Peace

You are our eyes. Thanks again!

[link to www.alertnet.org]

Go here look at the pic...

this is the "loop" they are thinking about?

Peace

HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...STILL NOT
MOVING...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Peace

Snip of discussion...

OPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
GFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING
WESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS...HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE
DOING SO. THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP
BUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL. SINCE
THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE NEED TO SEE
WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
WESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD
AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION...AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.

Peace

HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

...OPHELIA CONTINUES MEANDERING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

OPHELIA IS STATIONARY AND A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION MAY OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES...130 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Peace

Snip of discussion...

OPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
AREAS...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
GFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING
WESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS...HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE
DOING SO. THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP
BUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL. SINCE
THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS...I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY
SHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE NEED TO SEE
WHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE
WESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD
AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION...AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.

Peace

"Yes, the Zetas did predict this, didn´t they?"

Show us where they predicted that this tropical storm would become a hurricane. Provide a link where they SPECIFICALLY said that this storm was coming.

"You are the best Earth! Keep us informed, we are watching and listening now."

Actually, you don´t need Earth420. No offense to Earth, but you could get these updates yourself by going to the NHC web-site. Oh, wait, that´s right... the "Zetas" are forecasting all the weather these days according to you. Perhaps you should go to "ZetaTalk" and get the low down. I mean, why rely on Earth to bring you the information. Do the "Zetas" do local forecasts? Or do they only make vague comments based on already known trends worldwide?

Earth420! It´s getting interesting!!!

October yes!


And Cb, you know my back ground... nuff said I think... Im ready, in this "mindset" and this is what I do...

You didnt offend me anyhow... I knew of unpredictable, extreme weather and to be ready for it from zetatalk...

I represent this, but dont force this...

Peace!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There´s a rock radio station near me named 94.9 ZETA....I wonder if...ZETAS ROCK....

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE
02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER
THAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z
WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.

OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 020/5. OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST
AND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE
BEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR
CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
WEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE
ONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS
MIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
CYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT
INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

OPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER
WATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
MOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG. OPHELIA
SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW
THE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Its become a tropical storm again, but they are saying major hurricane within the next 36 hours... Keepin an eye on!

Peace

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983
MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65
KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP
IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A
DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.
ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC
THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED
STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK
AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST
TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.

BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST...
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

Peace

I predict that the Attention Whore OP, will continue to bump it´s own threads repeatedly in a desperate attempt to keep a thread on the front page in order to satisfy it´s need for attention.

Keepin updated... all you have to do is come to this thread and read... its here...

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS
MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR
ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS
TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.
THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL
STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY
OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN
THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND
EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

FORECASTER AVILA

Peace

Nice copy and paste from GoldenCatfish´s thread! And the attention whore strikes again!