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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS
MEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR
ACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS
TO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.
THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL
STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO
DEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY
OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN
THE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
TURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
GOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND
EAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.

FORECASTER AVILA

Peace