Users Online Now: 1,509 (Who's On?) Visitors Today: 26,744 Pageviews Today: 63,015 Threads Today: 34 Posts Today: 738 01:05 AM

Message Subject Why 2005 YU55 is a MAJOR concern.
Poster Handle Astronut
Post Content

1. On November 8th YU55 will become A lunar distance of 0.85, also 0.00217 AU (325,000 km; 202,000 mi) from Earth. The closest approach of any outer space object to earth in human history.
Quoting: zaphryn

:2011md:
2. YU55 will also become 0.00160 AU (239,000 km; 149,000 mi) from the moon. It's position will form a triangle with the earth and the moon.
Quoting: zaphryn

Any three points always form a triangle.
3. YU55 is 1,500 feet in diameter and round shaped like a planet. It also seems to be evenly picking up Dust and ice particles along with it.
Quoting: zaphryn

Yes, it's big, which is why it's receiving so much attention. I have not seen any evidence that it's surrounded by debris. The hill sphere for an asteroid that small is itself vanishingly small, so if any particle were going to orbit it, it would have to remain VERY close to the asteroid.

Why it should be of worry?
3 reasons.

1. When it creates that triangle with earth and the moon the gravity of both Earth & Moon will be powerful enough to change it's trajectory and degrade it's speed.

The change in its trajectory due to the earth and moon's gravity is already accounted for in the calculations. It will still miss us.
Also, if the earths gravity is powerful enough to satellite the moon around it, when the moon is 1,700 miles in diameter why isn't it strong enough to pull in a rock that's only 1,500 feet in diameter and has far less mass?
Quoting: zaphryn

You seem to have a profound misunderstanding of the way orbital dynamics work. The mass of the asteroid has nothing to do with it. It would have to hit the atmosphere just right at just the right speed to slow down enough and be captured as a satellite of earth, which isn't going to happen.
2. The Sun will push the Earths magnetic sheild away from the Sun. The Moon will be
traveling thru it, and during the month of November if any Solar Activity is present, the asteroid will be significantly affected.
Quoting: zaphryn

The trajectory of the asteroid is not going to be affected by passing through earth's magnetotail, regardless of solar activity, if it even does so (I haven't verified that part for myself and based on the other things you've said I'm not prepared to take your word for it).
3. Due to the Moon's hot core, it can not
hold a very strong magnetic field.
Quoting: zaphryn

No, due to the fact that the moon is about as geologically dead as any body in the solar system can be, it doesn't have a magnetic field. It only has small amounts of crustal magnetism.
Without orbital mechanics,
Quoting: zaphryn

Which we have, which is how we can predict the specifics of this encounter in the first place.
The other is why we didn't see it before 2005, does it show up on the old Mount Palomar Photographic plates?
Quoting: zaphryn

Most of the time it's dimmer than magnitude 21. The only time it would be bright enough to show up on the Palomar Sky Survey plates is during a close approach. The Sky survey was not designed to rapidly scan the sky, each exposure was rather long, about an hour each.
I also found that Robert S. McMillan who discovered this thing says that we don't have anything to fear as far as hitting earth goes until 100 years from now. I went to Nasa's JPL and looked at it every date from 2012 to 2140. The only two times it ever comes even close to us is listed below.

april 17th 2021 .028

november 7th 2022 .0366 au

after 2022 I couldn't find a single date it came anywhere near us. So why are they falsely projecting a concern for the future? Could there be concern now?
Quoting: zaphryn

All they said is that they ruled out any impact in the next hundred years, that doesn't mean they fear an impact 101 years from now, or even 130, just that for at least the next hundred years we're clear.