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The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis

 
Robot Emotions
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08/24/2011 09:01 PM
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The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
The New Madrid Fault

History

The name of the fault comes from the town of New Madrid, MO. At the time of the quakes, it was the largest town on the Mississippi River between St. Louis and Natches, MS. Memphis was founded in 1819, Little Rock in 1821, so at the time, it was the nearest thing to the epicenter with a name people recognized.

Three Main Shocks, One Huge Aftershock

December 16, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.7 2:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
December 17, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.0 7:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
January 23, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.5 southeast Missouri
February 7, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.7 along Reelfoot Fault Missouri/Tennessee border

1811, December 16, 08:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the first main shock
2:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.7

This powerful earthquake was felt widely over the entire eastern United States. People were awakened by the shaking in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Charleston, South Carolina. Perceptible ground shaking was in the range of one to three minutes depending upon the observers location. The ground motions were described as most alarming and frightening in places like Nashville, Tennessee, and Louisville, Kentucky. Reports also describe houses and other structures being severely shaken with many chimneys knocked down. In the epicentral area the ground surface was described as in great convulsion with sand and water ejected tens of feet into the air (liquefaction).

1811, December 16, 13:15 UTC Northeast Arkansas - the "Dawn" Aftershock
7:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.0

A large event felt on the East Coast that is sometimes regarded as the fourth principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 sequence. The event is described as "severe" at New Bourbon, Missouri, and was described by boatman John Bradbury, who was moored to a small island south of New Madrid, as "terrible, but not equal to the first". Hough believes that this large aftershock occurred around dawn in the New Madrid region near the surface projection of the Reelfoot fault.

1812, January 23, 15:15 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
9:15 am local time
Magnitude ~7.5

The second principal shock of the 1811-1812 sequence. It is difficult to assign intensities to the principal shocks that occurred after 1811 because many of the published accounts describe the cumulative effects of all the earthquakes and because the Ohio River was iced over, so there was little river traffic and fewer human observers. Using the December 16 earthquake as a standard, however, there is a general consensus that this earthquake was the smallest of the three principals. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

1812, February 7, 09:45 UTC, New Madrid, Missouri
3:45 am local time
Magnitude ~7.7

The third principal earthquake of the 1811-1812 series. Several destructive shocks occurred on February 7, the last of which equaled or surpassed the magnitude of any previous event. The town of New Madrid was destroyed. At St. Louis, many houses were damaged severely and their chimneys were thrown down. The meizoseismal area was characterized by general ground warping, ejections, fissuring, severe landslides, and caving of stream banks.

source: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]



Fast Forward 200 years...


Events of August 23, 2011

Colorado -- Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 05:46:19 UTC (8/22/11, 11:46pm local time)
5.3 quake, depth ~4km
source: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
Strongest quake in 40 years in Colorado.

Virginia -- Tuesday, August 23, 2011 at 17:51:04 UTC (8/23/11, 1:51pm local time)
5.8 quake, depth ~6km
source: [link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
Strongest quake in Virginia since 1897. Predictions for this strength of quake in that region are for about six events per 10,000 years. Rare indeed. source: [link to www.washingtonpost.com]

These two events draw an almost perfect straight line through New Madrid's historic epicenters, especially if we account for map distortion due to curvature of the earth. Looking at this map below, we can see that extending the line to the west has it run very near the site of the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906, estimated at 7.8 - 8.3 depending on which study you go by. Coincidence? Perhaps, but it could indicate a trend of large events.

IMAGE: [link to i.imgur.com]

So, we know that there has evidently been some pressure building on the Atlantic slope of the Rockies, as evidenced by the location of the Colorado quake. And we know some pressure has been building on the Atlantic slope of the Appalachians, evidenced by the Virginia quake. It leaves us to wonder how much pressure is stored in the Mississippi valley. Recent seismicity in the entire mid-Great Plains and Ozark region has increased in recent years, with mild quakes even in unlikely places such as North Texas and Oklahoma. Compound the natural tensions with man-made stress such as aquifer depletion and "fracking" from natural gas drilling.

IMAGE: [link to i.imgur.com]

Modern studies have shown little surface evidence for a mechanism for stress-loading in the current geological era, so future events may be very hard to predict for New Madrid if the existing geologic stress is leftover from past climatological and geological eras.
source: [link to geology.com]



Who's in Danger:

Major Cities
Memphis, TN: 646,889
Greater St. Louis, MO metro area: 2,845,298
Greater Nashville, TN metro area: 1,582,264

Mid-sized Cities
Clarksville, TN: 139,929 (home of Ft. Campbell, ~45,000 regular Army)
Evansville, IN: 350,261
Jackson, TN: 65,211
Jonesboro, AR: 67,263

That's over 5 million people without counting the hundreds of small towns in the region. Also at risk is just about anyone living in the 100 year floodplain area of the Mississippi River. If a geologic shift were to cause it to change its course slightly, it could easily wipe away entire small towns that more or less line it from source to mouth.



Fukushima Part 2?

Nuclear plants in the US in relation to Seismic zones
IMAGE: [link to www.greenpeace.org]
source: [link to www.greenpeace.org]
At least 4 nuke plants within 200 miles, a dozen within 300 miles. The 1811 event was felt on the East coast, over 400 miles away. It could be that seismic waves will propagate with more strength farther than they would in other areas of the country, which have mountainous boundaries to slow and deflect the waves. Think of it like tossing a stone into calm water versus choppy water. The waves will propagate with greater strength much farther in calm water.

We only need look at Japan to see what the nightmare potential is for nuclear reactors in seismic areas or flood zones.


I live in the area, what can I do?

Watch for earthquake lights - reported to appear very shortly before seismic events. They've been likened to the appearance of an aurora, from white to bluish, but have also been reported in colors ranging the entire spectrum. Reports indicate them lasting from a few seconds to many minutes, and visible from up to 200 miles from the epicenter. Speculated to be caused by intense electrical fields generated by piezoelectricity, generated by crystals in rock formations under stress, and channeled into the atmosphere by the earth's magnetic field, where the free electrons excite gasses into a glowing plasma state. If this theory is true, the New Madrid area is prime for it, because of the enormous amounts of pure quartz deposited in the Ozark region. [link to en.wikipedia.org]

Prepare an earthquake kit - There are so many preparedness sites on the internet, it would be foolish to go into any detail about it here, but you should at least have emergency water, food, first aid, and blankets ready. See [link to 72hours.org] for an easy to follow disaster prep site.

Have a plan - Even if you are the type who spends your last dime on Ramen noodles and internet service every month with nothing left over for prep supplies, you should have a plan on what to do in the event of a major disaster; where to go, who to meet, how you'll get there in various scenarios, etc. Don't just have a vague idea in your head. Sit down and write it out, look around on the net at other people's published plans to get ideas. It could save you or your family's life to not only have supplies, but have a plan of action as well.

And last but not least, despite all the doom and gloom, don't live your life in anxiety or fear over things you cannot control. You probably don't fret about getting run over crossing the street, and that is much, much more likely to happen than being killed in a major disaster. But disasters do happen, and knowledge is your best defense.

--note to mods, all sources are public domain and cited where copied directly, and paraphrased or rephrased and cited where the info was not clearly public domain. And feel free to put the images inline (please!)

Last Edited by Robot Emotions on 08/24/2011 10:11 PM
C'est la vie

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08/24/2011 09:17 PM
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Re: The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
OP, thank you so much for all of this info! I've been watching events and thinking it could be time for the NM to go. I live in St. Louis and have a plan. Hope this thread will get others to do the same!
That's Life!
TheTortureKing
It’ll End in Tears

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08/24/2011 09:29 PM

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Re: The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
Nice post OP. Informative and well laid out.

bump
TK
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08/24/2011 09:31 PM
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Re: The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
Very good analysis, OP. A refreshing change from the usual post. I live in the NewMad area so this info is useful. Five stars.
Robot Emotions  (OP)

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08/24/2011 09:34 PM
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Re: The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
OP, thank you so much for all of this info! I've been watching events and thinking it could be time for the NM to go. I live in St. Louis and have a plan. Hope this thread will get others to do the same!
 Quoting: C'est la vie


Well if even one person found it useful, then I suppose it was worth my time writing it. Thanks!

New Madrid is almost impossible to forecast because traditional methods of fault movement don't apply here. There is no fault line they can go set sensors on either side of to measure movements over time, so there is no basis for data collection and analysis of known stress build-up. The truth of it is, nobody has much of a clue if or when something major will happen there again.

Last Edited by Robot Emotions on 08/24/2011 09:35 PM
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 09:40 PM
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Re: The New Madrid Fault, a GLP Exclusive Analysis
got my earthquake bag ! took em 3 months to get it to me though.. huge demand i guess...


i hope central Illinois will be in the clear ! or... ill be on vacation beginning in September , do it th3n!
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 09:41 PM
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Thanks OP , the best post on GLP !!! Folks we need a Pin !!!
Mulletman

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08/24/2011 09:57 PM
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bump

Shin this Pit!
BringTheDoom.com - Wake up and smell the Doom!
me777

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08/24/2011 10:12 PM

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Thank you,OP hf
When thy judgments are in the earth, the inhabitants of the world will learn righteousness.
Isaiah 26:9

"Exposing Those Who Contradict"
[link to bible-truths.com]

"For as in Adam ALL die, so also in the Messiah will ALL be made alive."
[link to www.tentmaker.org]
Robot Emotions  (OP)

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08/24/2011 10:13 PM
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Heh, edit, edit, edit. I'll get all the spelling errors eventually.
spell
Cortez

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08/24/2011 10:17 PM
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Nicely Done my friend hf
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:18 PM
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always good to see that our country is set up for destruction because they built nuclear reactors on fault lines and flood zones.
~Andariel~

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08/24/2011 10:20 PM
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Excellent summary :)
Space, the final frontier...or is it?
Knowledge is power
Anti-GLP Effect

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08/24/2011 10:23 PM

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uhoh
So I have written it, so it shall be done! [link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:23 PM
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The Colorado and Virginia quakes have NOTHING to do with the New Madrid fault!

<geeze>




.
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:25 PM
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Excellent synopsis, well presented and clearly good research. Thank you, hf
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:25 PM
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How about the Wabash fault? It is the one that has been more active recently...and very well might be its turn.

New Madrids lil bro coming of age...

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:26 PM
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December 16, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.7 2:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
December 17, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.0 7:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
January 23, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.5 southeast Missouri
February 7, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.7 along Reelfoot Fault Missouri/Tennessee border
 Quoting: Robot Emotions:


Were was the moon on those dates? Was it full?
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:30 PM
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The Colorado and Virginia quakes have NOTHING to do with the New Madrid fault!

<geeze>


How do you know this...explain.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1519287
11:11

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08/24/2011 10:32 PM
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Thanks Op great post. Now that you have scared the shit out of me Im going to bed.
Tawandaaaa

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08/24/2011 10:33 PM
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Gut feeling tells me that when this one hits, it will be in the middle of the night.

Nice collection of info OP. +1 Karma for you.

Last Edited by Tawandaaaa on 08/24/2011 10:33 PM
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:36 PM
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The Colorado and Virginia quakes have NOTHING to do with the New Madrid fault!

<geeze>




.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1519287


The thinking is that the North American plate is moving it runs across those lines.
Anonymous Cowherder
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+5 internets and +1 karma to you

Last Edited by Anonymous Cowherder on 08/24/2011 10:36 PM
Repeal the 17th Amendment and the Reapportionment Act of 1929!

Thread: First steps down the road to a return to the Constitutional Republic that we were intended to be.

Restore the Republic.

Thread: The Bill of Rights does NOT include age requirements!

It's a flower, not something to be feared.

cow - Moo!
hillcrest3

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08/24/2011 10:37 PM
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thanks, OP rose
Water always wins.
Pangn

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08/24/2011 10:37 PM
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My current concern is that Virginia has not had an aftershock in 24 hours now. This soon after a quake..

Just seems odd.

Add that with the EQ clouds I caught pictures of tonight (with orbs!) and something just doesn't feel right. Will post if I feel ear popping sensations like I did with the last one.
Barn Owl

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08/24/2011 10:38 PM
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Amazing post! Thank you for summing this up for us.

hf
Mrs. Henry Jones, Jr. (oh Indy!)
Robot Emotions  (OP)

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08/24/2011 10:39 PM
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December 16, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.7 2:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
December 17, 1811 - Magnitude ~7.0 7:15am local time, northeast Arkansas
January 23, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.5 southeast Missouri
February 7, 1812 - Magnitude ~ 7.7 along Reelfoot Fault Missouri/Tennessee border
 Quoting: Robot Emotions:


Were was the moon on those dates? Was it full?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1432652


Just out of curiosity, I plugged the date, time, location into Stellarium and it shows that Jupiter was almost straight overhead, and the moon, sun, and Venus were aligned directly on the other side of the planet at the time of the first quake. So it was Sun - Venus - Moon - Earth - Jupiter in a line. I'm not sure how accurate Stellarium is but it seems like a good astrolab program, so it probably isnt too far off.
J.H.F.C.
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08/24/2011 10:39 PM
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Excellent summary :)
 Quoting: ~Andariel~



I always agree with ~Andariel~ ... She's really bright.
Anti-GLP Effect

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08/24/2011 10:44 PM

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Just FYI, if you calculate the midpoint between the epicenters of the eqs which occured on Colorado (37.07 degrees latitude, -104.70 degrees longitude) and Virginia (37.936 degrees latitude, -77.933 degrees longitude), you get 37.503 degrees latitude, -91.3165 degrees longitude - which is located in Missouri, where the New Madrid fault lies.

Last Edited by The Opened Scroll on 08/24/2011 10:45 PM
So I have written it, so it shall be done! [link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
charlie
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08/24/2011 10:45 PM
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Nice!! Thanks 5 Star
Anonymous Coward
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08/24/2011 10:55 PM
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siren2 Thread: ELENIN - NUCLEAR - NETWORK WARNING!!! beavis





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