German Army Report: Economy shrinking indefinitely

Very interesting, and I've seen it coming for a while now myself so I've been doing my best to transition my own household to a post-oil environment. We drive a total of 2500 miles per year, for two people. I surrounded the house with edible plants: raspberries, blueberries, hazelnuts, apple trees. I've expanded our garden (and my gardening knowledge) every year for the last five years, and we grow a fair amount of our own food now. Compost bins and soon a composting toilet (so we don't need much fertilizer, if any). Some solar power (but would like more). Rainwater harvesting and four big rain barrels. House and car paid for. Stash of gold and silver. Tools and the ability to build things (just finished a 3-meter-long elevated three-tiered plant stand for container gardening). Yada yada. If we lost all utilities and the grocery stores and gas stations all shut down, I actually think we'd be more or less okay until the unprepared cannibal hordes showed up to eat us. Heh.

Better to be proactive and prepare for a future with far less oil, transportation and food than to be reactive and let looming crises slap one around due to lack of preparation.

Best post on GLP all year.

GLP 2011 best post award OP.

seconded

Very interesting and, I fear, very accurate.

Que. the "oil is abiotic....i have no proof what so ever BUT IT IS" crowd in 5...4.....3.....2.....1.....

So a war like if Israel were to take out Irans nuclear reactors and Oil would be 250 to 300 she would come true

Indubitably.

I'll say it again the Germans are the smartest people in the world. Too bad the Anglo-Saxon apple fell so far from the tree.

Hmmm... the yanks have oil, it's just europe that's fooked... but they are in africa.

Germans always insecure, because so easy to cut them off, and they don't have a vast empire like the UK, USA and a few other European countries....

they dont want to have to get in bed with Russia for oil, because that will lead to the west europeans ganging up... plenty of oil about, it's just the yanks need to transform their motor industry to rest of the world standards... ie: efficiency.

having said that, bring it on... I'm bugged out already, and don't fancy contributing to our western mafia oligarchy.

It's all a big coincidence

I think this is the original report from 2010 correct?
[link to peak-oil.com]

yep, they started and lost 2 major wars and will also foul up WWIII. Brilliant really.

Interesting how the Army is tasked with this rather than some governmental agency.

I don't think we have anyone smart enough in the US Army to do that.

Doom, dooom, DOOOOOOOOOOOm, so mush DOOM so little time.

here's the report.
[link to peak-oil.com]

how did they start WWI?

The German military went around the German government with the report. The US military actually did the same thing. Google it.

If there's a "mobility crisis", then we've done it to ourselves. Or should I say that we let them do it to ourselves?

I'm pretty sure we got along just fine before the automobile. America once had the biggest & best passenger train network in the world. It went everywhere (even rural areas), all on steam power (basically free). We also had most extensive electric city streetcar networks on the planet too. Now I'd dare anyone to go find some of these rail lines still in use. Oh, you may find a handful of them here & there, and some of the new light rail lines, but nothing NOTHING like before. So they knew what they were doing when they took it all away & replaced it all with bigger roads, highways & more cars. Google: The Great American Streetcar Scandal to see what I mean.

And don't get me started on the creation of the suburbs & what that's done for our health & mobility. It all goes back to the automobile & making as much money as possible off of everyone. So that meant taking away public transit, creating suburbs, destroying the urban fabrics of our cities & decreasing population density.

So yeah, here we are now.

I forget which report was leaked first.


Leaked German Military Report Warns Of Apocalyptic Peak Oil Scenarios

Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]




US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015
• Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says
• Cost of crude oil is predicted to top $100 a barrel

The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."

The US military says its views cannot be taken as US government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with "an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to guide out future force developments."

The warning is the latest in a series from around the world that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a distant threat to a more immediate risk.

The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on the seriousness of the issue.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally about this upbeat stance.

Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America because the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically unstable Middle East.

But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may experience a decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the investment was not forthcoming.

Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College, London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the American military moves the debate on.

"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information is based on," he said.

"The Energy Information Administration (of the department of energy) has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades away". In light of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA still confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"

The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic upheaval. "One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest," it points out.

The US report is from the Guardian, Guardian is banned here, but I posted the text instead.

best news I've heard in a while

I don't think we have anyone smart enough in the US Army to do that.

On the contrary...do you think servicing and operating all this high-tech equipment is easy? You have a VERY biased and INCORRECT view of a modern soldier.

When I was in the Army as a 24-T (Patriot Missile Systems Mechanic) here's what I had to do to qualify to just be allowed to even touch the real equipment.

1st Pass boot camp. Learn all regulations and procedures about the uniform, conduct, maintenance of personal equipment. Pass 26 different mini-exams on basic things like tearing apart and re-assembling 2 different automatic weapons in a strict time-limit. Navigate unfamiliar terrain with nothing but a simple compass at night while being hunted. Properly use and maintain chemical weapons gear. Understand simple to complex small arms maneuvers. Quote from a book of rules on how to perform such tasks and guarding a post or following chains of command. Recite basic military history.

And most important, how to work together as a team...which is really what most of boot camp is trying to get through your thick skulls.

All while getting about 3 hours sleep a night, heavy physical workloads. You run everywhere..never walk, if your standing around, in line for example, then the D.I.'s put a stop with ad-hoc push-ups and other fun stuff. Oh, and exercising 3-4 hours a day.

Passing that got you into the FIRST school.

16-T: Learn how to manually survey in radars and missile launchers. That's survey, with poles and mirrors and measuring devices and MATH. As in what engineering firms do. Basic maintenance on both 16KW and 100KW turbine generators. Pass a driving school for 2,5, and 10 Ton vehicles. Lean how to set up ALL of the equipment for a full Patriot Battery, including how to run cables, sight signal equipment, ect..

This was about 10 large books worth of information. You had to pass around 20 practical exams. In EIGHT WEEKS.

All of the above while still maintaining a 12 hour work day that includes cleaning your uniforms, tests and training on basic stuff, fire watches, C.Q. duty, guard duty, funeral duty, inspections, etc...

Passing THAT school finally meant you could earn the right to learn...

24-T:

Basic air-traffic controller school. We did a limited version of full air-traffic control. Since we were mostly interested in shooting down aircraft, we didn't do things like talk to the planes...we just learned how to spot ones that violated the "rules". Be able to configure a PATRIOT unit to different states of readiness, overcome equipment failures (using battle mode, etc..).

Learn the ECS (Engagement control station operation, maintenance and repair). Learn how to do data entry of the survey information and spot errors FAST. Learn how to "tune" your Radar for ground clutter, how to prioritize engagement of enemy aircraft, how to fight ECM with your available ECCM and A-Scope, how to prepare for use of nuclear weapons or respond to chemical weapon attacks.

Learn phased array radar troubleshooting and repair (RS).
Learn how the radar processed signals and what was likely wrong with it broke. This is around 5000 parts you needed to know.

LS (Launcher station) troubleshooting and repair. Repair the launcher, it's communications systems, learn how to properly maintain the missiles and how to do first-line repair on the 15 KW generators.

AMG (Antenna Mast Group) operation and repair. Although the 31-M MOS operated this vehicle we ended up repairing it.

Not to mention the TONS of things we needed to know about operating and repairing other simpler vehicles (like changing a 200lb spare tire or how to re-pack bearings on your 5-ton, etc).

By learn, I mean you had to know EVERY major part on EVERY piece of equipment and it's functions.

You had to know every switch, circuit breaker and major part by heart. How it's coolant flowed, how to render the high-energy parts safe to touch (pretty important), were the radiation splashed when the radar was in normal and "battle" power mode,etc etc..

There were 42 more practical exams in the course of 48 weeks of training. IF you failed TWO exams you were put up in front of a review board. The decided if you were allowed to continue the school. If they let you have another chance you got to try again. Fail ONE more test, and you were out. They might even send you back a few weeks to start a phase over.

THEN after passing that I got the privilege of going to my regular unit. At that point I was informed I didn't know shit and had to spend another 6-8 months learning my trade AND memorize the TSOP (Top-Secret SOP..rules of engagement), how to properly handle the encryption codes for IFF (COMSEC), learning all the little things the school didn't teach me on top of typical soldier B.S.

After a total of 2.5 years of training, passing exams, certifying my SOP knowledge, I was finally allowed to fire ONE missile at a drone.

Then I could practice for real warfare.

All of the above along with the a "normal" Army workload that would have most of you gimps crying for mommy.

For example: Digging foxholes aka firing positions. This is more complex than many of you realize..grenade sumps, proper drainage, positioning, firing plans, trip wires, fallback positions, properly challenging and recognizing friendlies, responding to chem attacks, etc..etc.. The list is endless.

The Army is a LOT harder and more demanding than MANY of you realize. They don't really need dummies and those guys ended up as cooks or drivers. Dumb guys get weeded out QUICKLY.

While the Infantry had it's share of dummies, some of the smartest guys I knew were 11B's. The amount of knowledge required to operate as infantry today is FAR greater than a WW-II soldier.

It takes YEARS of hard work to become proficient at your MOS.

So ist das Leben--hart aber dafür gemein.

Ist doch nix neues. Wissen wir seit 2005.

in europe we ve most times short distances .. what will happen to the countries with long distances like canada or the usa?

On the contrary...do you think servicing and operating all this high-tech equipment is easy? You have a VERY biased and INCORRECT view of a modern soldier.

When I was in the Army as a 24-T (Patriot Missile Systems Mechanic) here's what I had to do to qualify to just be allowed to even touch the real equipment.

1st Pass boot camp. Learn all regulations and procedures about the uniform, conduct, maintenance of personal equipment. Pass 26 different mini-exams on basic things like tearing apart and re-assembling 2 different automatic weapons in a strict time-limit. Navigate unfamiliar terrain with nothing but a simple compass at night while being hunted. Properly use and maintain chemical weapons gear. Understand simple to complex small arms maneuvers. Quote from a book of rules on how to perform such tasks and guarding a post or following chains of command. Recite basic military history.

And most important, how to work together as a team...which is really what most of boot camp is trying to get through your thick skulls.

All while getting about 3 hours sleep a night, heavy physical workloads. You run everywhere..never walk, if your standing around, in line for example, then the D.I.'s put a stop with ad-hoc push-ups and other fun stuff. Oh, and exercising 3-4 hours a day.

Passing that got you into the FIRST school.

16-T: Learn how to manually survey in radars and missile launchers. That's survey, with poles and mirrors and measuring devices and MATH. As in what engineering firms do. Basic maintenance on both 16KW and 100KW turbine generators. Pass a driving school for 2,5, and 10 Ton vehicles. Lean how to set up ALL of the equipment for a full Patriot Battery, including how to run cables, sight signal equipment, ect..

This was about 10 large books worth of information. You had to pass around 20 practical exams. In EIGHT WEEKS.

All of the above while still maintaining a 12 hour work day that includes cleaning your uniforms, tests and training on basic stuff, fire watches, C.Q. duty, guard duty, funeral duty, inspections, etc...

Passing THAT school finally meant you could earn the right to learn...

24-T:

Basic air-traffic controller school. We did a limited version of full air-traffic control. Since we were mostly interested in shooting down aircraft, we didn't do things like talk to the planes...we just learned how to spot ones that violated the "rules". Be able to configure a PATRIOT unit to different states of readiness, overcome equipment failures (using battle mode, etc..).

Learn the ECS (Engagement control station operation, maintenance and repair). Learn how to do data entry of the survey information and spot errors FAST. Learn how to "tune" your Radar for ground clutter, how to prioritize engagement of enemy aircraft, how to fight ECM with your available ECCM and A-Scope, how to prepare for use of nuclear weapons or respond to chemical weapon attacks.

Learn phased array radar troubleshooting and repair (RS).
Learn how the radar processed signals and what was likely wrong with it broke. This is around 5000 parts you needed to know.

LS (Launcher station) troubleshooting and repair. Repair the launcher, it's communications systems, learn how to properly maintain the missiles and how to do first-line repair on the 15 KW generators.

AMG (Antenna Mast Group) operation and repair. Although the 31-M MOS operated this vehicle we ended up repairing it.

Not to mention the TONS of things we needed to know about operating and repairing other simpler vehicles (like changing a 200lb spare tire or how to re-pack bearings on your 5-ton, etc).

By learn, I mean you had to know EVERY major part on EVERY piece of equipment and it's functions.

You had to know every switch, circuit breaker and major part by heart. How it's coolant flowed, how to render the high-energy parts safe to touch (pretty important), were the radiation splashed when the radar was in normal and "battle" power mode,etc etc..

There were 42 more practical exams in the course of 48 weeks of training. IF you failed TWO exams you were put up in front of a review board. The decided if you were allowed to continue the school. If they let you have another chance you got to try again. Fail ONE more test, and you were out. They might even send you back a few weeks to start a phase over.

THEN after passing that I got the privilege of going to my regular unit. At that point I was informed I didn't know shit and had to spend another 6-8 months learning my trade AND memorize the TSOP (Top-Secret SOP..rules of engagement), how to properly handle the encryption codes for IFF (COMSEC), learning all the little things the school didn't teach me on top of typical soldier B.S.

After a total of 2.5 years of training, passing exams, certifying my SOP knowledge, I was finally allowed to fire ONE missile at a drone.

Then I could practice for real warfare.

All of the above along with the a "normal" Army workload that would have most of you gimps crying for mommy.

For example: Digging foxholes aka firing positions. This is more complex than many of you realize..grenade sumps, proper drainage, positioning, firing plans, trip wires, fallback positions, properly challenging and recognizing friendlies, responding to chem attacks, etc..etc.. The list is endless.

The Army is a LOT harder and more demanding than MANY of you realize. They don't really need dummies and those guys ended up as cooks or drivers. Dumb guys get weeded out QUICKLY.

While the Infantry had it's share of dummies, some of the smartest guys I knew were 11B's. The amount of knowledge required to operate as infantry today is FAR greater than a WW-II soldier.

It takes YEARS of hard work to become proficient at your MOS.


If they are that smart, why are they burning the fuel
we need to fight useless wars?

How much fuel is burned by our air force just to fly
missions in Afghanistan and in other remote regions?

Try to imagine the logistics of getting fuel to these
remote areas and who profits from the whole circus?

They might be smart, but they are insane!

If they are that smart, why are they burning the fuel
we need to fight useless wars?

How much fuel is burned by our air force just to fly
missions in Afghanistan and in other remote regions?

Try to imagine the logistics of getting fuel to these
remote areas and who profits from the whole circus?

They might be smart, but they are insane!

During World War I, the German Empire was one of the Central Powers that ultimately lost the war. It began participation with the conflict after the declaration of war against Serbia by its ally, Austria-Hungary.


[link to en.wikipedia.org]

They will do it again, both start it and lose it! WWIII!

For the near future the study foresees that a very large increase in oil prices would harm the energy-intensive agricultural systems that produce much of our food. Not only could the costs of fertilizers and pesticides become prohibitive, but the massive amount of oil-dependent transportation needed to move agricultural products long distances could make food unaffordable for many.

That is a temporary problem the less people eat the more people die the less food needs to be produced