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Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55

 
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Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I independently determined the orbit of 2005 YU55 using nothing but observations from amateur astronomers. The result shows a slightly closer approach than when professional data is included, but it still passes us almost just as far away, at a safe distance of about ~242,528 km. It misses the moon according to this orbit by ~165,230 km.


Even the amateur data shows that earth is safe... for now ;). Yes, eventually some damaging rock will hit earth again, but not this one, at least not in our lifetime. Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant.

Unfortunately, 2005 YU55 won't be close enough to be visible to the naked eye, but it will put on a good show in telescopes. Provided the weather allows for it, I will be broadcasting a live view of the asteroid's close approach here on GLP.

Last Edited by Astromut on 10/28/2011 10:00 PM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Thanks Astro hf
TBar1984

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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I independently determined the orbit of 2005 YU55 using nothing but observations from amateur astronomers. The result shows a slightly closer approach than when professional data is included, but it still passes us almost just as far away, at a safe distance of about ~242,528 km. It misses the moon according to this orbit by ~165,230 km.


Even the amateur data shows that earth is safe... for now ;). Yes, eventually some damaging rock will hit earth again, but not this one, at least not in our lifetime. Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant.

Unfortunately, 2005 YU55 won't be close enough to be visible to the naked eye, but it will put on a good show in telescopes. Provided the weather allows for it, I will be broadcasting a live view of the asteroid's close approach here on GLP.
 Quoting: Astromut


It wasn't very nice of JPL to come out with a new report today...and change the Condition Code to 3 from 0. I don't like seeing that particular parameter grow larger. Still, a 3 is much better than an 8...
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon.
jerkit

Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not;
[link to www.freedomslips.com]

*sigh*

Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/28/2011 10:52 PM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I'll be waiting thumbs

popcorn
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
 Quoting: Astromut


Any ideas as to what it is made of?

Snip from article


Arecibo radar observations of asteroid 2005 YU55 made in 2010 show it to be approximately spherical in shape. It is slowly spinning, with a rotation period of about 18 hours. The asteroid's surface is darker than charcoal at optical wavelengths.

[link to www.jpl.nasa.gov]
shadasonic

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10/28/2011 11:11 PM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I independently determined the orbit of 2005 YU55 using nothing but observations from amateur astronomers. The result shows a slightly closer approach than when professional data is included, but it still passes us almost just as far away, at a safe distance of about ~242,528 km. It misses the moon according to this orbit by ~165,230 km.


Even the amateur data shows that earth is safe... for now ;). Yes, eventually some damaging rock will hit earth again, but not this one, at least not in our lifetime. Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant.

Unfortunately, 2005 YU55 won't be close enough to be visible to the naked eye, but it will put on a good show in telescopes. Provided the weather allows for it, I will be broadcasting a live view of the asteroid's close approach here on GLP.
 Quoting: Astromut


It wasn't very nice of JPL to come out with a new report today...and change the Condition Code to 3 from 0. I don't like seeing that particular parameter grow larger. Still, a 3 is much better than an 8...
[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon.
jerkit

Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not;
[link to www.freedomslips.com]

*sigh*
 Quoting: TBar1984


Hoagland is just getting horrible with these insider slips. Ten tears ago I somewhat listened with interest, now he is just trying to keep up with the other kooks. Thanks for the update ASTRO!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon.
jerkit

Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not;
[link to www.freedomslips.com]
 Quoting: TBar1984


Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then.
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
happydance
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Thanks Asto.. great information from you, as usual !hf
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10/28/2011 11:48 PM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I'll be going live at TWS too.
Senior Meteorologist -
Find my awesomeness on Facebook at [link to www.Facebook.com]
TBar1984

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10/28/2011 11:51 PM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon.
jerkit

Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not;
[link to www.freedomslips.com]
 Quoting: TBar1984


Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then.
 Quoting: Astromut


Yep, I'd say well timed. They are uploading the Hoagland section to YouTube now. Probably see it plastered all over the 'net shortly. Supposed to show up here; [link to www.youtube.com]

Would it be alright to mirror your video on my site?

Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/28/2011 11:59 PM
coldfiremx84

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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Can the gravity of said NEO possibly effect the orbit of the moon?
AstromutModerator  (OP)
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
You might want to checkout what the Hogman said on Freedom Slips tonight. You will be hearing about it soon anyway. R.C. Hoagland just said he has 'inside info' that YU55 is 'off' track and will hit the Moon.
jerkit

Freedom Slips is repeating the 'Terral Show' right now, I don't know if they will repeat the Collision Course show, with Hoagland, in an hour or not;
[link to www.freedomslips.com]
 Quoting: TBar1984


Thanks for the update! Seems like my video was perfectly timed then.
 Quoting: Astromut


Yep, I'd say well timed. They are uploading the Hoagland section to YouTube now. Probably see it plastered all over the 'net shortly. Supposed to show up here; [link to www.youtube.com]

Would it be alright to mirror your video on my site?
 Quoting: TBar1984


Hold off, I've got an update to make to it; I found data from two additional amateur observatories that I tossed in there. I came up with an even more accurate orbital solution as a result, and it now agrees with the official orbit to an even greater extent. I'm also generating uncertainty data to put into ORSA to visualize the "cone of uncertainty" during the time of close approach to see if it overlaps the moon at all or not.
astrobanner2
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
I was about to ask what 'fudge' factor was,

cheers Mut!
"If you do not go within
You WILL go without."

A wiser man than I

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Ensures eternal support."

"The more you give,
The more you have
To give."

A phellow earthling
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Can the gravity of said NEO possibly effect the orbit of the moon?
 Quoting: coldfiremx84


No, I computed the effect the asteroid would have on the moon's position earlier. The result was around 430 nanometers or so.
astrobanner2
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10/29/2011 12:23 AM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Can the gravity of said NEO possibly effect the orbit of the moon?
 Quoting: coldfiremx84


No, I computed the effect the asteroid would have on the moon's position earlier. The result was around 430 nanometers or so.
 Quoting: Astromut


Cool and very good info.

This thread brings to mind another question, though. Mostly from a historical perspective, has there ever been a major impact to the moon that we were able to observe? I don't remember hearing of any.

Hypothetically speaking, of something similar to this object did drive straight into the moon, what would that look like from Earth? Would it actually have any measureable effects to the moons orbit, or tidal influence, or anything?

Fascinating stuff!
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Here's the link to the refined solution:
[link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com]
It includes two additional observatories' data, and is a bit more refined in terms of observation inclusion bringing the root mean square error down by about a third. It's now to about half an arcsecond on RMS, which is great. I'll be uploading a new video with the improved elements as well as the uncertainty cone of the resulting orbit shortly.
astrobanner2
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Excellent.
cool2

Nonetheless, we should remain vigilant.
 Quoting: Astromut

Hear, hear...

Everybody write to their Congress critters reminding them to sufficiently fund anti-spacedoom efforts.
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Hi! My name is Halcyon Dayz and I'm addicted to morans.
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Can the gravity of said NEO possibly effect the orbit of the moon?
 Quoting: coldfiremx84


No, I computed the effect the asteroid would have on the moon's position earlier. The result was around 430 nanometers or so.
 Quoting: Astromut


Cool and very good info.

This thread brings to mind another question, though. Mostly from a historical perspective, has there ever been a major impact to the moon that we were able to observe? I don't remember hearing of any.

Hypothetically speaking, of something similar to this object did drive straight into the moon, what would that look like from Earth? Would it actually have any measureable effects to the moons orbit, or tidal influence, or anything?

Fascinating stuff!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 718510


The moon's been hit by far larger objects throughout its history. More minor impacts are seen by amateurs all the time on the night side of the moon where you can see brief flashes from the collisions, but they're too small to form any noticeable new craters, at least as seen from earth. YU55 would probably make a detectable crater as seen from earth, that would be the most novel thing about it.
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Booting into linux to run the ORSA simulation of the orbital solution, I'll be back in a few.
astrobanner2
TBar1984

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10/29/2011 12:36 AM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Here's the link to the refined solution:
[link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com]
It includes two additional observatories' data, and is a bit more refined in terms of observation inclusion bringing the root mean square error down by about a third. It's now to about half an arcsecond on RMS, which is great. I'll be uploading a new video with the improved elements as well as the uncertainty cone of the resulting orbit shortly.
 Quoting: Astromut


Your position puts it 258,755 KM from Friday's JPL position. Not bad. Let me know when you get the New Video up.

Using the solution from here [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] , Starry Night gives Earth CPA 171,975 km on 11/8/22:21GMT, Moon CPA 141,012 km on 11/9/06:28GMT

Using the solution from here [link to 2005yu55.jimdo.com] , I get Earth CPA 231,375 km on 11/8/22:41GMT, Moon CPA 161,833 km on 11/9/06:39GMT

1dunno1

Last Edited by TBar1984 on 10/29/2011 02:46 AM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
clappa BRAVO Astro!
Don't get mad - Get a Pepsi!
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
No anomolies included in the calc.,solar inflces etc.,etc... jus sayin.
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
No anomolies included in the calc.,solar inflces etc.,etc... jus sayin.
 Quoting: EDGEM12012 4229572


As the half an arcsecond RMS proves, "solar inflces" etc are negligible. If they weren't, they would manifest as a large RMS and large cone of uncertainty.
astrobanner2
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
how big is this and has it passed us before?
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
astronut is a god
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Thank you for the info! hf
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Here's the refined solution with data from 2 additional amateur observatories incorporated, complete with uncertainty analysis at the end. There's no doubt about it, the asteroid will miss both the earth and the moon:



For TBar, feel free to mirror:
[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by Astromut on 10/29/2011 02:54 AM
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Joshua James

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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
Good info astro. Thank you. Thanks also for enduring all the hate in the past like a champ. That said, is it A) possible for a Florida boy to view it with a 4", and B) whens the best time?
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
That said, is it A) possible for a Florida boy to view it with a 4", and B) whens the best time?
 Quoting: Joshua James


The night of November 8th will be best. Do we change daylight savings before then? I can't remember, they've changed the date too much. I practically think of everything in terms of GMT time now anyway. Anyway, anytime after it gets dark but before midnight, and really even a while thereafter, will be the best time to view it. It's going to be moving really, really fast compared to other asteroids you might look for, so spotting it without goto will be hard.

As for whether your scope can see it or not, theoretically yes it can based on the size. I'm assuming you live in a place in Florida that is not under particularly pristine skies, zenith limiting magnitude 4 or thereabouts and that you're using a low magnification eyepiece to find it. If that's true, you'll only be able to see it that night during the time of peak brightness and it'll be very dim; you would have to be using averted vision and even then you would only just barely see it.

Last Edited by Astromut on 10/29/2011 02:53 AM
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Re: Amateur-Determined Orbit of 2005 YU55
That said, is it A) possible for a Florida boy to view it with a 4", and B) whens the best time?
 Quoting: Joshua James


The night of November 8th will be best. Do we change daylight savings before then? I can't remember, they've changed the date too much. I practically think of everything in terms of GMT time now anyway. Anyway, anytime after it gets dark but before midnight, and really even a while thereafter, will be the best time to view it. It's going to be moving really, really fast compared to other asteroids you might look for, so spotting it without goto will be hard.

As for whether your scope can see it or not, theoretically yes it can based on the size. I'm assuming you live in a place in Florida that is not under particularly pristine skies, zenith limiting magnitude 4 or thereabouts and that you're using a low magnification eyepiece to find it. If that's true, you'll only be able to see it that night during the time of peak brightness and it'll be very dim; you would have to be using averted vision and even then you would only just barely see it.
 Quoting: Astromut


Okay. I'm probably better off using a good set of binoculars then. Thanks again, peace! Keep up the good work broski!





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