Yu55 IMPACT WARNING... TODAY.. Excellent Analysis...

At only 400m in size... if this thing WERE to impact Earth it'd be far from an ELE.

It would take something at or approaching 1-mile across in size to effect enough damage on the planet upon impact to begin the extinction of life on Earth.

Would the damage from Yu55, IF IT HIT, be horrible... yes and no. It depends on where it hits. If it hit in the middle of Antarctica then the results would be negligible. A ground impact would probably be something 100 times the size of the Tunguska incident which would be quite significant.

A water (ocean) impact would probably create a tsunami that would take out up to 100 miles of land wherever it crashes.... again, quite significant.


I still doubt that this whole YU55 issue is going to result in an Earth impact.....

here is my thread from last night on the possible damage from an asteroid this size. it is the transcript from a pbs documentary

Thread: *I'm going to go ahead and call BS on the person that said yu55 was too small to cause significant damage***

I have read Yu55 is 1400 feet across... no matter where this hits, IF it does, it's going to make quite an impact (pun intended).

the one that hit arizona was 130feet and made a 3000foot crater this one is 1300feet
this thread help you imagine the size difference
2005 YU55 is a bowling ball... VS the marble that made the AZ crater
Thread: 2005 YU55 is a bowling ball... VS the marble that made the AZ crater

A fair few people seem to believe that NASA would publish data that shows a confirmed impact.

It doesn't matter if they would or wouldn't, amateur data alone is enough to show it won't impact.

thx Mut will you be tracking this with the glp scope for us? link?

It doesn't matter if they would or wouldn't, amateur data alone is enough to show it won't impact.

Thanks Astro, appreciate your input. I will be relieved when it does actually pass as my folks live out on Long Island.

It appears NASA, JPL is NOT TOO CERTAIN it knows the exact path of Yu55. It's condition code has been DOWNGRADED... they are less than certain the gravitational effects of moon and earth on this body... the JPL website source indicates a RMS fit of .40482 which means the date is fitting the projected trajectory model very poorly... Oh shit!

No, that is not what that means. 0.40482 RMS is a good fit. They know its orbit well for this century, they're trying to determine it even better to rule out impacts in future centuries.

No, that is not what that means. 0.40482 RMS is a good fit. They know its orbit well for this century, they're trying to determine it even better to rule out impacts in future centuries.

Thanks Astro... Is this RMS figure a measure of what we know know about it's orbit to date or it's projected future orbit ?

For comparison, the amateur data taken by itself produces a fit of about .5 RMS, but even that's more than enough to rule out an impact on this encounter. The condition code has been decreased from 3 a week ago to 1 now, that means they're more sure of it now, not less.

I am reading 9 high degree of uncertainty and 0 low degree of uncertainty. It was a 0 over the last several months and was recently downgraded to a 2... you're reporting a 1, but still downgraded. Can you explain this?

Soooooooooooo um we are still here. Doom off.

Stay alert... it's not over yet. We have the FEMA FCC EAS today and the MASSIVE PACWAV11 Tsunami drill taking place. There are enough unanswered questions, irregularities and odd coincidences about all this that a four year old could clearly see all the disinformation. Perhaps it's paranoia on my part, but my inner sense tells me something is not right and if i have learned anything in my 52 years of trench warfare, it is trust your inner sense... it's always correct.

Ummmm. I think it's paranoia on your part, amigo.

Could very well be... old guys get that way