Godlike Productions - Discussion Forum
Users Online Now: 1,280 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 34,605
Pageviews Today: 56,737Threads Today: 13Posts Today: 309
12:35 AM


Rate this Thread

Absolute BS Crap Reasonable Nice Amazing
 

Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*

 
armouredkitten
Offer Upgrade

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 01:20 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I have decided today that I am going to monitor as much as possible the low-points of phobos-grunt throughout the day.
I started recording data two passes ago, where its low point was 107.12 mi. Its low point for the next pass was 106.98mi, meaning a drop of .14 miles. The third low point I have recorded today was just a minute ago at 106.83mi, which is a drop of .15 miles.

Earlier after the second low-point that i recorded, i determined that it would take at most 50 passes (given that it drops .14 miles each pass) to reach below 100 miles, where the atmosphere will begin interfering a lot more intensely. Around 90 miles, antennae begin ripping off and wind drag is sure to bring it down a lot more swiftly. 50 passes every 90 minutes is at most 187 hours. Again, that is if it drops .14 miles each time. Though, the drop margin seems to be increasing.

Anybody else interested in this willing to help? I want to get as much data on this as possible so we have a better idea of when/where we can expect it to fall.

Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/15/2012 01:55 AM
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 01:32 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
No support?

bump
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
FuzzyLumpkin

User ID: 1569457
United States
01/10/2012 01:46 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
You have my support. I have been keeping an eye on the Grunt as well. Let me know if you have any guess on re-entry; I can't figure this one.

Don't forget your helmet if you go out!
hayseed

Last Edited by Rev. FuzzyLumpkin on 01/10/2012 01:50 PM
The FuzzyLumpkin
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 7645989
United States
01/10/2012 01:50 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
rockets will direct it to the chosen target on earth
yeswecan
User ID: 1521885
United States
01/10/2012 01:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I have decided today that I am going to monitor as much as possible the low-points of phobos-grunt throughout the day.
I started recording data two passes ago, where its low point was 107.12 mi. Its low point for the next pass was 106.98mi, meaning a drop of .14 miles. The third low point I have recorded today was just a minute ago at 106.83mi, which is a drop of .15 miles.

Earlier after the second low-point that i recorded, i determined that it would take at most 50 passes (given that it drops .14 miles each pass) to reach below 100 miles, where the atmosphere will begin interfering a lot more intensely. Around 90 miles, antennae begin ripping off and wind drag is sure to bring it down a lot more swiftly. 50 passes every 90 minutes is at most 187 hours. Again, that is if it drops .14 miles each time. Though, the drop margin seems to be increasing.

Anybody else interested in this willing to help? I want to get as much data on this as possible so we have a better idea of when/where we can expect it to fall.
 Quoting: armouredkitten


I'm pretty sure it is 100km, or almost 70 miles where the atmosphere begins.
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 02:23 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I'm pretty sure it is 100km, or almost 70 miles where the atmosphere begins.
 Quoting: yeswecan 1521885


I'm not sure exactly, my only source of reference for that data is a mrcometwatch video.

We'll see, though.
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 02:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
106.69miles @ 102.9 azimuth
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
HyruleRupee

User ID: 7968262
United States
01/10/2012 02:50 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
You have my support. I have been keeping an eye on the Grunt as well. Let me know if you have any guess on re-entry; I can't figure this one.

Don't forget your helmet if you go out!
hayseed
 Quoting: FuzzyLumpkin


LOVE your name!!!!! Was he from Power Puff Girls?????? I always liked MOJO JOJO!!!!afro
"If You Don't Love Jesus, Go To Hell" ......Billy Joe Shaver
---------------------------

"I've got a fever, and the only RX is, MORE COWBELL"
---------------------------
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 03:37 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

"A major cause of orbital decay for satellites in low Earth orbit is the drag of Earthís atmosphere. During solar maxima the Earth's atmosphere causes significant drag up to a hundred kilometers higher than during solar minima"
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
DanG
User ID: 1487452
United States
01/10/2012 03:40 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I'm certainly glad the predicted orbit changed from yesterday, it was supposed to pass directly over me this weekend -and- low enough to be visible . . .
hiding
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8451631
United States
01/10/2012 03:54 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
Cool OP.

This guy has stablized video of phobos grunt right at the top
[link to legault.perso.sfr.fr]

Directly Here
[link to legault.perso.sfr.fr]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8451631
United States
01/10/2012 03:56 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I'm certainly glad the predicted orbit changed from yesterday, it was supposed to pass directly over me this weekend -and- low enough to be visible . . .
hiding
 Quoting: DanG 1487452


visible?
[link to legault.perso.sfr.fr]

You really need to worry about real possibilities.
Heart attacks, cancer, automobile crashes and
falls in the home.
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/10/2012 04:06 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
106.54 miles this pass. a drop of .16 miles. so far a pretty consistent increase in the drop by .01 miles (or 528 feet) each pass.
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
Strawberrymittens

User ID: 7321694
United States
01/10/2012 08:44 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
Altitude 106.2mi
8:30pm EST
Speed 4.69
jumpy
The universe seems neither benign nor hostile, merely indifferent to the concerns of such puny creatures as we are. - Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1487452
United States
01/10/2012 08:46 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I'm certainly glad the predicted orbit changed from yesterday, it was supposed to pass directly over me this weekend -and- low enough to be visible . . .
hiding
 Quoting: DanG 1487452


visible?
[link to legault.perso.sfr.fr]

You really need to worry about real possibilities.
Heart attacks, cancer, automobile crashes and
falls in the home.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8451631


it WAS projected as a 0.7 mag
numbnuts
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 6036358
United States
01/11/2012 09:18 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
Funny, just last night I saw a commercial for allstate where they said "obscure space junk crashing into your home? Yup, we cover that too"
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/11/2012 10:27 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
welp n2yo.com is down.
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 8043225
United States
01/11/2012 10:40 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
suspicions that the drop rate is now .363 miles

Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/11/2012 10:54 AM
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 5064785
United States
01/11/2012 07:59 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
103.35 miles just now
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
walt

User ID: 8659754
Zambia
01/12/2012 09:09 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
100.53 the new low just now
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 09:36 AM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
Wow, 3 miles in 12 hours
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5855012
United States
01/12/2012 12:05 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
99.93 miles just now
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 12:23 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I see this thing coming down as early as tomorrow afternoon if it continues to increase its fall rate as such.

There's no way to know for sure when the winn will drag it down but it is known that solar activity can greatly affect the atmosphere's drag on satellites. so I would also keep an eye on www.solarimg.org/artis/

Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/12/2012 12:25 PM
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 01:29 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
Once phobos reaches the height of 120 km (75 miles) above the Earth's surface it will have only around 30 minutes left before re-entry (less than one third of an orbit). Re-entry is generally accepted as commencing from orbit around at around 80km altitude. At this point the acceleration due to drag becomes appreciable (greater than 0.1G) thus causing further irreversible loss of altitude and increase in drag. At peak deceleration extreme heating, due to friction, and drag forces can destroy the objects integrity and disintegrate part or all of the object. This continues to around 45km altitude when the remaining objects have slowed and deceleration forces decrease. Remaining objects continue a ballistic trajectory, impacting the earths surface.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 01:33 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
99.63 just now: a drop of .3 miles from last pass
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1423419
United States
01/12/2012 01:34 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
99.63mi Just now
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1423419
United States
01/12/2012 01:38 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
99.63mi Just now
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1423419


I've also notice the high point is now about 117mi so that number is coming down even quicker.
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 01:42 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
99.63mi Just now
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1423419


I've also notice the high point is now about 117mi so that number is coming down even quicker.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1423419


It is definitely falling faster and faster. Just two days ago the drop rate was .15 miles per pass and now it is double that. So if that trend continues (which physics says, it will), then I can guarantee this thing will come down this saturday.

.3 miles per pass avg for today at 18 passes per day is 5.4 miles. that puts the low point after today around 95 miles.
.5 miles per pass avg for tomorrow at 18 passes per day is 8 miles, which is 87 miles low.
.6 miles per pass for saturday at 18 passes per day puts it at 10.8 miles, which is 76 miles. So saturday night or sunday morning.

My bet's on saturday due to "unforseen" changes in atmosphere as well as fall rate in general.

Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/12/2012 01:46 PM
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8547638
United Kingdom
01/12/2012 01:45 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I gotta ask the question.

Where are you getting your orbital data from exactly.
armouredkitten  (OP)

User ID: 1749122
United States
01/12/2012 01:48 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I gotta ask the question.

Where are you getting your orbital data from exactly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547638


I am tracking the satellite on [link to www.n2yo.com] and have been recording its low points as well as other pertinent data.
Simple mathematics does the rest for you. last pass it's low point was 99.93, this pass it was 99.63.
That is a drop rate double of the .15 miles per pass of two days ago.
-Why are you wearing that stupid man suit?

:armouredkitten:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 8547638
United Kingdom
01/12/2012 02:03 PM
Report Abusive Post
Report Copyright Violation
Re: Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)*
I gotta ask the question.

Where are you getting your orbital data from exactly.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547638


I am tracking the satellite on [link to www.n2yo.com] and have been recording its low points as well as other pertinent data.
Simple mathematics does the rest for you. last pass it's low point was 99.93, this pass it was 99.63.
That is a drop rate double of the .15 miles per pass of two days ago.
 Quoting: armouredkitten


I hope you know that the NASA/NORAD orbital parameters that the site uses for generating the orbit data are only updated once a day.

When the object starts skimming the atmosphere those numbers wonít mean jack shit as the object will start tumbling and skipping across the atmosphere, it cam rise and well as "dig" into the atmosphere on any skip.

The lower that thing gets the more random its actions will become.

How do I know this, well I used to track ham radio satellites years ago, and I know that when they come to the end of their life their final orbits were pure guess work once they started re-entering the atmosphere.

Iím not shrilling, Just letting you know.





GLP