Tracking Phobos-Grunt low-points *(COMING DOWN IN A MATTER OF HOURS)* | |
armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 8043225 ![]() 01/10/2012 01:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
FuzzyLumpkin User ID: 1569457 ![]() 01/10/2012 01:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You have my support. I have been keeping an eye on the Grunt as well. Let me know if you have any guess on re-entry; I can't figure this one. Don't forget your helmet if you go out! ![]() Last Edited by Rev. FuzzyLumpkin on 01/10/2012 01:50 PM The FuzzyLumpkin |
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yeswecan User ID: 1521885 ![]() 01/10/2012 01:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I have decided today that I am going to monitor as much as possible the low-points of phobos-grunt throughout the day. Quoting: armouredkitten I started recording data two passes ago, where its low point was 107.12 mi. Its low point for the next pass was 106.98mi, meaning a drop of .14 miles. The third low point I have recorded today was just a minute ago at 106.83mi, which is a drop of .15 miles. Earlier after the second low-point that i recorded, i determined that it would take at most 50 passes (given that it drops .14 miles each pass) to reach below 100 miles, where the atmosphere will begin interfering a lot more intensely. Around 90 miles, antennae begin ripping off and wind drag is sure to bring it down a lot more swiftly. 50 passes every 90 minutes is at most 187 hours. Again, that is if it drops .14 miles each time. Though, the drop margin seems to be increasing. Anybody else interested in this willing to help? I want to get as much data on this as possible so we have a better idea of when/where we can expect it to fall. I'm pretty sure it is 100km, or almost 70 miles where the atmosphere begins. |
armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 8043225 ![]() 01/10/2012 02:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 8043225 ![]() 01/10/2012 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
HyruleRupee User ID: 7968262 ![]() 01/10/2012 02:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You have my support. I have been keeping an eye on the Grunt as well. Let me know if you have any guess on re-entry; I can't figure this one. Quoting: FuzzyLumpkin Don't forget your helmet if you go out! ![]() LOVE your name!!!!! Was he from Power Puff Girls?????? I always liked MOJO JOJO!!!! ![]() "If You Don't Love Jesus, Go To Hell" ......Billy Joe Shaver --------------------------- "I've got a fever, and the only RX is, MORE COWBELL" --------------------------- |
armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 8043225 ![]() 01/10/2012 03:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to en.wikipedia.org] "A major cause of orbital decay for satellites in low Earth orbit is the drag of Earth’s atmosphere. During solar maxima the Earth's atmosphere causes significant drag up to a hundred kilometers higher than during solar minima" -Why are you wearing that stupid man suit? :armouredkitten: |
DanG User ID: 1487452 ![]() 01/10/2012 03:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 8451631 ![]() 01/10/2012 03:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Cool OP. This guy has stablized video of phobos grunt right at the top [link to legault.perso.sfr.fr] Directly Here [link to legault.perso.sfr.fr] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 8451631 ![]() 01/10/2012 03:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm certainly glad the predicted orbit changed from yesterday, it was supposed to pass directly over me this weekend -and- low enough to be visible . . . Quoting: DanG 1487452 ![]() visible? [link to legault.perso.sfr.fr] You really need to worry about real possibilities. Heart attacks, cancer, automobile crashes and falls in the home. |
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Strawberrymittens User ID: 7321694 ![]() 01/10/2012 08:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1487452 ![]() 01/10/2012 08:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I'm certainly glad the predicted orbit changed from yesterday, it was supposed to pass directly over me this weekend -and- low enough to be visible . . . Quoting: DanG 1487452 ![]() visible? [link to legault.perso.sfr.fr] You really need to worry about real possibilities. Heart attacks, cancer, automobile crashes and falls in the home. it WAS projected as a 0.7 mag numbnuts |
armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 6036358 ![]() 01/11/2012 09:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 8043225 ![]() 01/11/2012 10:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | suspicions that the drop rate is now .363 miles Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/11/2012 10:54 AM -Why are you wearing that stupid man suit? :armouredkitten: |
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armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 1749122 ![]() 01/12/2012 12:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I see this thing coming down as early as tomorrow afternoon if it continues to increase its fall rate as such. There's no way to know for sure when the winn will drag it down but it is known that solar activity can greatly affect the atmosphere's drag on satellites. so I would also keep an eye on www.solarimg.org/artis/ Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/12/2012 12:25 PM -Why are you wearing that stupid man suit? :armouredkitten: |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1749122 ![]() 01/12/2012 01:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Once phobos reaches the height of 120 km (75 miles) above the Earth's surface it will have only around 30 minutes left before re-entry (less than one third of an orbit). Re-entry is generally accepted as commencing from orbit around at around 80km altitude. At this point the acceleration due to drag becomes appreciable (greater than 0.1G) thus causing further irreversible loss of altitude and increase in drag. At peak deceleration extreme heating, due to friction, and drag forces can destroy the objects integrity and disintegrate part or all of the object. This continues to around 45km altitude when the remaining objects have slowed and deceleration forces decrease. Remaining objects continue a ballistic trajectory, impacting the earths surface. |
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armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 1749122 ![]() 01/12/2012 01:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I've also notice the high point is now about 117mi so that number is coming down even quicker. It is definitely falling faster and faster. Just two days ago the drop rate was .15 miles per pass and now it is double that. So if that trend continues (which physics says, it will), then I can guarantee this thing will come down this saturday. .3 miles per pass avg for today at 18 passes per day is 5.4 miles. that puts the low point after today around 95 miles. .5 miles per pass avg for tomorrow at 18 passes per day is 8 miles, which is 87 miles low. .6 miles per pass for saturday at 18 passes per day puts it at 10.8 miles, which is 76 miles. So saturday night or sunday morning. My bet's on saturday due to "unforseen" changes in atmosphere as well as fall rate in general. Last Edited by ArmouredKitten on 01/12/2012 01:46 PM -Why are you wearing that stupid man suit? :armouredkitten: |
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armouredkitten (OP) User ID: 1749122 ![]() 01/12/2012 01:48 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I gotta ask the question. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547638 Where are you getting your orbital data from exactly. I am tracking the satellite on [link to www.n2yo.com] and have been recording its low points as well as other pertinent data. Simple mathematics does the rest for you. last pass it's low point was 99.93, this pass it was 99.63. That is a drop rate double of the .15 miles per pass of two days ago. -Why are you wearing that stupid man suit? :armouredkitten: |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 8547638 ![]() 01/12/2012 02:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I gotta ask the question. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547638 Where are you getting your orbital data from exactly. I am tracking the satellite on [link to www.n2yo.com] and have been recording its low points as well as other pertinent data. Simple mathematics does the rest for you. last pass it's low point was 99.93, this pass it was 99.63. That is a drop rate double of the .15 miles per pass of two days ago. I hope you know that the NASA/NORAD orbital parameters that the site uses for generating the orbit data are only updated once a day. When the object starts skimming the atmosphere those numbers won’t mean jack shit as the object will start tumbling and skipping across the atmosphere, it cam rise and well as "dig" into the atmosphere on any skip. The lower that thing gets the more random its actions will become. How do I know this, well I used to track ham radio satellites years ago, and I know that when they come to the end of their life their final orbits were pure guess work once they started re-entering the atmosphere. I’m not shrilling, Just letting you know. |