Baltic Dry Index....COLLAPSING | |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 1264381 United States 01/11/2012 07:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Looking at the 5y chart I agree with the above. However if it stays down then that could prove to be rather bad. Although if the cost savings are passed on to the consumers that could have benefits. "The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain." |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 8684292 Brazil 01/11/2012 07:58 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey guys, check this out: [link to www.ship.gr] The mark of the beast is everywhere... The multi-year bottom of the Baltic Dry Index during this recession was on December 5, 2008, at 663 points. Onde day before, on December 4, it closed at 666 points. On December 8, 2008, it rebounded to 671 points, and never went lower than 666 again... It was under 666 just for ONE DAY, and just 3 points. |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 1707881 United States 01/11/2012 08:05 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | yes... Keep an eye on it...it went down over 5% and 65 pts today alone...it could drop under 1000 pretty soon...and then it's time to really watch. It is true that it has dipped like this and nothing happened...i remember watching it 1 year ago and then it went back up...this drop is more dramatic though. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1468385 Canada 01/11/2012 08:13 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | yes... Keep an eye on it...it went down over 5% and 65 pts today alone...it could drop under 1000 pretty soon...and then it's time to really watch. It is true that it has dipped like this and nothing happened...i remember watching it 1 year ago and then it went back up...this drop is more dramatic though. Nothing happened then because we didn't have Navel War prices to be worried about. |
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BugsyMalone User ID: 5453827 Australia 01/11/2012 08:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey guys, check this out: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8684292 [link to www.ship.gr] The mark of the beast is everywhere... The multi-year bottom of the Baltic Dry Index during this recession was on December 5, 2008, at 663 points. Onde day before, on December 4, it closed at 666 points. On December 8, 2008, it rebounded to 671 points, and never went lower than 666 again... It was under 666 just for ONE DAY, and just 3 points. Good grief I never realised that. If I remember rightly the S&P 500 US stock index did the same thing. Closed at 666 during the GFC and never went lower.....it's extraordinary isn't it? There has to be a message in there somewhere eh? Bugsy says: "I told you there is weird stuff going on mum" |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 1459834 United States 01/11/2012 09:31 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The BDI often drops in early winter ... so I wouldn't worry YET. IF it breaks BELOW the low for 2011, 1043, THEN I would start to worry since it would indicate a slowing economy (world ... NOT US). Already Europe is showing signs of potentially falling into a recession ... which of course would both drive the index lower AND probably pull the rest of the industrialized world, ex China, with it. (which may be what is driving the index down at the moment) China's economy is clearly in a "Bubble", one driven by real estate and huge UNeconomic infrastructure build outs. When the Chinese bubble bursts is anybody's guess, it could actually continue forward for several more years, or could burst later this spring. It all depends upon how the Chinese Government and Central Bank deal with their bubble. fwiw Copper imports into China, which is the second key industrial commodity after oil, are at peak - never before seen - levels, which indicates that NO serious slowdown is yet occuring in China. The Baltic Dry Index, along with the LIBOR rate (London Interbank Lending Rate) are two of the key economic indicators that anyone doing modeling should pay attention to. One indicates REAL economic activity (along with the pricing of Copper), while the other indicates "stress" in the world's banking system. |
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MARTIAL LAW User ID: 1282080 United States 01/12/2012 09:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | down almost 90 today...wow! :martiallaw4: “The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.” Isaiah 43:2 When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze. Ecclesiastes 12:14 For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job! |
Nickadeemus User ID: 8713275 United States 01/12/2012 09:37 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
MARTIAL LAW User ID: 1282080 United States 01/12/2012 09:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good to see you're alive. We were worried you had gone to the dark side. Effing good to see you man. Nick® Haha! Dark side? NEVER...just took a little break! :martiallaw4: “The bravest are surely those who have the clearest vision of what is before them, glory and danger alike, and yet notwithstanding, go out to meet it.” Isaiah 43:2 When you pass through the waters, I will be with you; and when you pass through the rivers, they will not sweep over you. When you walk through the fire, you will not be burned; the flames will not set you ablaze. Ecclesiastes 12:14 For God shall bring every work into judgment, with every secret thing, whether it be good, or whether it be evil. ~9/11 Was An Inside Job! |
Nickadeemus User ID: 8713275 United States 01/12/2012 09:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good to see you're alive. We were worried you had gone to the dark side. Effing good to see you man. Nick® Haha! Dark side? NEVER...just took a little break! Smart man. Those are necessary every once in a while. There are so many special things around this world and so little time, "life" has to be more than just a screen. I just took a little hiatus myself. Of course, I almost ended up like Cane in Alien, but a break it was none-the-less. Salude brother and welcome back. Nick® Pure Life; Get it on... |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 1244400 01/13/2012 08:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hey guys, check this out: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8684292 [link to www.ship.gr] The mark of the beast is everywhere... The multi-year bottom of the Baltic Dry Index during this recession was on December 5, 2008, at 663 points. Onde day before, on December 4, it closed at 666 points. On December 8, 2008, it rebounded to 671 points, and never went lower than 666 again... It was under 666 just for ONE DAY, and just 3 points. It's just a number the only thing special is that it falls between 665 and 667. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 961432 United States 01/13/2012 09:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The BDI often drops in early winter ... so I wouldn't worry YET. IF it breaks BELOW the low for 2011, 1043, THEN I would start to worry since it would indicate a slowing economy (world ... NOT US). Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1459834 Already Europe is showing signs of potentially falling into a recession ... which of course would both drive the index lower AND probably pull the rest of the industrialized world, ex China, with it. (which may be what is driving the index down at the moment) China's economy is clearly in a "Bubble", one driven by real estate and huge UNeconomic infrastructure build outs. When the Chinese bubble bursts is anybody's guess, it could actually continue forward for several more years, or could burst later this spring. It all depends upon how the Chinese Government and Central Bank deal with their bubble. fwiw Copper imports into China, which is the second key industrial commodity after oil, are at peak - never before seen - levels, which indicates that NO serious slowdown is yet occuring in China. The Baltic Dry Index, along with the LIBOR rate (London Interbank Lending Rate) are two of the key economic indicators that anyone doing modeling should pay attention to. One indicates REAL economic activity (along with the pricing of Copper), while the other indicates "stress" in the world's banking system. Well written. I've also read a lot of analysts who claim the BDI is very difficult to manipulate, that is manipulation from central authorities to paint a picture other that what is really happening. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 1486841 Canada 01/13/2012 09:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | massive head and shoulders pattern forming. Index will fall off the map in a year. [link to investmenttools.com] |
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