Enhanced Tornado Dynamics for Mississippi Valley: Full Discussion and Forecast

Graphic: [link to www.theweatherspace.com]

TWS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH 001
TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER
TheWeatherSpace.com
1:35 PM EST SUN JAN 22, 2012

THE TWS TORNADO FORECAST CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ...

EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS ...
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ...
WESTERN TENNESSEE ...
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ...
WESTERN ALABAMA ...

EFFECTIVE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ...

THIS IS AN ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH, THE STRONGEST OF ALL TWS TORNADO WATCH PRODUCTS ...

LONG TRACKING AND VIOLENT TORNADOES LIKELY ...

DISCUSSION ... TRYING A NEW THING WITH TORNADO WATCHES THAT LAST A VERY LONG TIME AND INFORMATION THAT NEEDS TO BE GIVEN COULD COVER A LARGE AREA, THUS INSTEAD OF WATCH BOXES, PUZZLE PIECE WATCH BOXES ARE BEING TESTED.

A VERY POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THIS HOUR. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE BEST ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHERE THE LIFTING WILL BE PRESENT, THUS EXPLOSIVE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE ARE INDICATIONS THAT LIFTING IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER WILL BE WEAK, THUS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN AND THE LINE MAY END THERE. AS A PRECAUTION THOUGH THIS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH PRODUCT HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE LOUISIANA BORDER.

THE STORMS WILL FORM IN A HIGH SHEARED / MODERATE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. WITH SUCH A STRONG LOW, MID, UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE AREA, SUPERCELLS ARE A CERTAIN, WITH A 100% CHANCE OF TORNADOES WITH THEM. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS WEAKER IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, THUS QUICK DAMAGING WIND DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THERE, WITH NOT MUCH OF A TORNADO WINDOW TO WORK WITH.

STORMS ON THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN END WILL PROMOTE THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS DUE TO BETTER DIRECTION SHEARING. THESE WILL BE THE STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WESTERN TENNESSEE ZONES. THIS IS YOUR POTENTIAL FOR LONG TRACKING AND VIOLENT TORNADOES.

AS THE LINE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS, WEAKER DYNAMICS WILL END THE VIOLENT TORNADO THREAT, BUT YOU'LL STILL HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES, A TORNADO WATCH NORTH OF THIS ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH ZONE WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FOR THE NIGHT HOURS, EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ... THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TWO LINE DEVELOPMENTS, ONE OF THOSE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE, PRODUCING VIOLENT SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS, THE OTHER ACROSS NORTHERN TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH ZONE.
ALTHOUGH LIFTING IS NOT AS STRONG AS EASTERN ARKANSAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE, THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS GREATER, PERHAPS THE BEST VALUES OF THE EVENT. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SOUTHERN END EVENT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL BE LIKELY AND THIS IS THE REASON THE ENHANCED TORNADO WATCH IS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THESE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES PROMOTE THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED VIOLENT SUPERCELL CHANCE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WELL INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL REGULAR TORNADO WATCH BOXES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THIS: PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI NORTH OF THIS WATCH ... SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ... WESTERN KENTUCKY ... POSSIBLY EXTENDING ALSO TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ...

SO LOOK FOR THOSE ON THE MAIN SITE'S TORNADO WATCH WIDGET LOCATED ON THE UPPER RIGHT OF ALMOST ALL OF THE WEBPAGES, WHICH CAN SCROLL DOWN AS WELL IF MORE THAN ONE TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED ...

THIS WATCH IS IN PLACE TO INFORM SPOTTERS IN THE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND IN NO WAY SHOULD BE USED FOR PRIMARY PREPARATIONS. SOME TORNADOES GO WITHOUT A REPORT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF SPOTTERS ACTIVATED IN A RURAL AREA.


... K. MARTIN

Last Edited by KMartin on 01/22/2012 01:51 PM