Jet Stream Broken: Possible ARkStorm Forming off Coast of California Could Rain on Cali for Months and Form an Inland Sea

Video of Weather Expert Satellite Images

A satellite view of the weather over the Pacific Ocean and the U.S. currently shows a strong low pressure system off the coast of California that due to a "broken" gulf stream could stall in its present position for months.

In other words, there is the potential for what is called an ARkStorm (Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) to form. An ARkStorm is one which stays in one position and constantly feeds moisture onto the land nonstop for a period of months.

If such a phenomenon were to occur it could result in the development of an inland sea in the Central Valley of California - like an inland Gulf of Mexico.



Skip from 04:50 to 06:30 on the video
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What is an ARkStorm?

An ARkStorm is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "superstorm" scenario developed and published by the United States Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP).

[link to urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu]

It describes an extreme storm that could drop ten feet of rain on California, a storm which would likely impact much of California causing up to $725 billion in damages and repair (most caused by flooding), and affect a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to intense California storms which occurred in 1861 and 1862.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

The "ARkStorm Scenario," prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey and released at the ARkStorm Summit in Sacramento on Jan. 13 – 14, 2011 combines prehistoric geologic flood history in California with modern flood mapping and climate-change projections to produce a hypothetical, but plausible, scenario aimed at preparing the emergency response community for this type of hazard.

[link to www.usgs.gov]

ARkStorm - West Coast Storm Scenario

The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide.

Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities.

Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour.

Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes.
Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding.

Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore.

Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties.

Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 billion property repair costs.

This means that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

The Massive Storms of 1861-1862

Beginning on Christmas Eve, 1861, and continuing into early 1862, an extreme series of storms lasting 45 days struck California.

The storms caused severe flooding, turning the Sacramento Valley into an inland sea, forcing the State Capital to be moved from Sacramento to San Francisco for a time, and requiring Governor Leland Stanford to take a rowboat to his inauguration.

[link to urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu]

William Brewer, author of “Up and down California,” wrote on January 19, 1862, “The great central valley of the state is under water—the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys—a region 250 to 300 miles long and an average of at least twenty miles wide, or probably three to three and a half millions of acres!”

In southern California lakes were formed in the Mojave Desert and the Los Angeles Basin. The Santa Ana River tripled its highest-ever estimated discharge, cutting arroyos into the southern California landscape and obliterating the ironically named Agua Mansa (Smooth Water), then the largest community between New Mexico and Los Angeles.

The storms wiped out nearly a third of the taxable land in California, leaving the State bankrupt.

The 1861-62 series of storms were probably the largest and longest California storms on record.

However, geological evidence suggests that earlier, prehistoric floods were likely even bigger.

There is no scientific evidence to suggest that such extreme storms could not happen again.

[link to urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu]

Last Edited by Biochemky on 04/01/2012 04:01 AM