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Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW

 
Baltar
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05/11/2012 06:21 PM
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Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
KING WORLD:

“If we see the yield on the US 10-Year Note break below the 1.8% level, what it’s to signal to bond traders around the world is that we have a deflationary wave coming.

I think the reason the 1.8% level has been a floor so far is because most traders are convinced the Bernanke-led Fed will not allow deflation to occur.”

Dan Norcini continues:

“If you look at the following weekly chart of the US Ten-Year Note, notice the yield has never closed, on a weekly basis, below the 1.8% level. It has penetrated that level on more than once occasion, but always recovered to close back above that level by Friday.

If we were to see a weekly close below the 1.8% level, that would definitely confirm the market would be expecting a serious bout of deflation.

[link to kingworldnews.com]

Last Edited by Baltar on 05/11/2012 06:41 PM
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
Anonymous Coward
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05/11/2012 06:28 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
If they pull the trigger on QE3, Obama loses the election.
It's really just that simple.

"The Era of Bailouts is OVER!"
Barack Obama, 2010.
Baltar  (OP)

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05/11/2012 06:44 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
If they pull the trigger on QE3, Obama loses the election.
It's really just that simple.

"The Era of Bailouts is OVER!"
Barack Obama, 2010.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6089715


We are much closer to a 2008 credit event than most people believe

JPM just the start

GS and MS were falling as fast today, and Morgan Stanley is in weaker shape

The indicators to watch are Commercial Paper and Libor Euribor...
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
Baltar  (OP)

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05/14/2012 04:34 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
If they pull the trigger on QE3, Obama loses the election.
It's really just that simple.

"The Era of Bailouts is OVER!"
Barack Obama, 2010.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6089715


We are much closer to a 2008 credit event than most people believe

JPM just the start

GS and MS were falling as fast today, and Morgan Stanley is in weaker shape

The indicators to watch are Commercial Paper and Libor Euribor...
 Quoting: Baltar


The USD is now 80.67 and climbing

Keep an eye on the 10 year this week:

[link to www.treasury.gov]

and

Top U.S. Treasury Forecaster Says 10-Year Yield to Drop

[link to www.bloomberg.com]

FTN Financial Chief Economist Christopher Low, the most accurate forecaster of Treasury note yields last year, said Europe’s financial turmoil and slow growth may push 10-year yields to a record low of 1.5 percent.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
MarketSellOff
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05/14/2012 04:45 AM

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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
What a perfect time I chose to buy a stock rant
Baltar  (OP)

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05/14/2012 09:01 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
10 year yield falls under 1.79 - uh oh...does it keep going?

[link to www.businessinsider.com]

Government Bond Yields Are Collapsing All Over The Place


While Italy and Spain and Greece get the headlines, the actual reality with respect to government bond yields is that they're collapsing all over the place.
Pretty much anyone with their own printer or in close proximity to a printer (Germany) is seeing record or near-record low yields.

The US 10-year has fallen to 1.79%.


Last Edited by Baltar on 05/14/2012 09:02 AM
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
Baltar  (OP)

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05/14/2012 09:03 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
What a perfect time I chose to buy a stock rant
 Quoting: MarketSellOff


Never too late to sell some covered calls...

..or buy some puts

If this truly begins to unwind, there are a few piggies out there which are ripe for a tumble, like AMZN with a forward PE of 180

But we'll know soon enough.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 09:07 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
Who cares if they drop, just makes it easier to pay off the debt, it's an a increase in govt. interest rates that will sink this turd.
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2012 09:07 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
Or it could mean the fed is really doing a good job gobbling up all those treasuriea
whiteangel

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05/14/2012 10:35 AM

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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
bump
Keep your heads down and your mouths shut
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Baltar  (OP)

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05/18/2012 11:36 AM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
bump
 Quoting: whiteangel


bump...it's happening
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius
anon2121416
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05/18/2012 12:37 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
Looks like the wheels are coming off
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2012 01:07 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
OP - this link is for you:
[link to chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2012 01:11 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
Is the a real story or just financetards getting hard on soft doomporn?
Baltar  (OP)

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05/23/2012 12:11 PM
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Re: Crash Looming : If 10 Year Bond loses 1.8% Watch out BELOW
KING WORLD:

“If we see the yield on the US 10-Year Note break below the 1.8% level, what it’s to signal to bond traders around the world is that we have a deflationary wave coming.

I think the reason the 1.8% level has been a floor so far is because most traders are convinced the Bernanke-led Fed will not allow deflation to occur.”

Dan Norcini continues:

“If you look at the following weekly chart of the US Ten-Year Note, notice the yield has never closed, on a weekly basis, below the 1.8% level. It has penetrated that level on more than once occasion, but always recovered to close back above that level by Friday.

If we were to see a weekly close below the 1.8% level, that would definitely confirm the market would be expecting a serious bout of deflation.

[link to kingworldnews.com]
 Quoting: Baltar




@zerohedge 10 Y 1.71%

!!!

crash underway...bounces are dead cat bounces

China cannot do another round of stimulus, and frankly even if they could, there is a diminishing impact:

China Is Stimulused Out

The economy still has a hangover from the last blowout.

[link to online.wsj.com]
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.
~Marcus Aurelius





GLP