Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 6 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1515 (S18W50)
continued to produce M-class flares, the largest an M2/Sn at
06/0140Z. The region continued to grow to 900 millionths and
maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 1513
(N15W65) showed slight decay and is now considered an Hsx-alpha type
spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares for the next three days
(07-09 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm
conditions on days one and two (07-08 July) due to combined effects
from the CMEs observed on 03 and 04 July. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (09 July) as effects from the
CMEs subside.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 158
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 015/022-017/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/45/20
Minor storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/30