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BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA

 
Fire Marshall
User ID: 58580
United States
12/31/2005 07:49 AM
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BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA
ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT DEC 31 2005

...ZETA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 37.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1040
MILES...1670 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
Atma

User ID: 57474
United States
12/31/2005 07:51 AM
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Re: BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA
Sounds like another one they really don't know what it is going to do.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 310817
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

A BURST OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C...
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT
A SMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
DEPICTED IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA. THE 50-KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A CDO
FEATURE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY COULD EVEN BE 55-60 KT... BUT I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY ANY FURTHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATES ZETA HAS SLOWED ITS NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS ZETA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH... AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE PRIMARY DILEMMA WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST IS WHEN WILL ZETA WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...
AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. SINCE ZETA IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
THREE RUNS OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING... AN ADDITIONAL
12-24 HOURS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS MODEL REAMINS POORLY INITIALIZED... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE happy_bunnyS-UKMET CONSENSUS.

LIKE THE FORECAST TRACK... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 45 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM... WHICH IS LIKELY MUCH TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SINCE ZETA IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DELTA AND EPSILON... THE SHIPS SHEAR
CALCULATIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ZETA. SINCE THE 300 MB
FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE WESTERLY AT ONLY
15-20 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS... THEN LESS SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART
Atma

User ID: 58581
United States
12/31/2005 07:54 AM
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Re: BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA
"THE
OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE happy_bunnyS-UKMET CONSENSUS."

Thanks for the IP Ban happy_bunny bitch.
Fire Marshall (OP)
User ID: 58580
United States
12/31/2005 08:06 AM
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Re: BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA
IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS.
!!

Are they microwaving Zeta?
Atma

User ID: 58581
United States
12/31/2005 08:58 AM
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Re: BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ZETA
Don't know about microwaving. I've never really believed in the weather wars thing.

It's hard to believe this thing formed in such cool water though.





GLP