X1.8 Solar Flare just popped! Intensity continuing to increase from sunspot 1598

Ooofah!



BAM!

CME?

Sunspot 1598 just unleashed an X-Class 1.81 solar flare, that may have an affect on the earth in the next couple days. Stay tuned for more after NOAA analysis.

Sunspot 1598 has unleashed three M class flares over the last 72 hours, and will be directly facing the Earth in the next 3 days. The first on Oct 20th, at around noon PST was an M Class 9.09 size flare, but was faced nearly 90 degree's away from the earth, so the affect should be minimum.

The second flare was a smaller M-Class 1.36 flare on the 21st at around 1pm, but was still aimed 82 degrees away from earth. The third flare that happened about 12:30 PST was smaller at M Class 5.06, was facing 15 degrees closer to Earth, but should still only have minor affects on the Earth. However the sunspot has also grown in size nearly 75% since then. The NOAA has predicted a 60% chance of more M-Class flares and a 5% chance of one or more X-class flares.

Oktober surprise!!!

With that sunspot coming into earth directing over the next 3 days, one can only wonder about what's to come. Since 1598 has started it has gradually climbed in intensity and it's still growing! The next 3 days will be very interesting and I will be watching 24/7...

We have an X
[link to solarimg.org]

damn, this could end up being intense. So was the x-flare earth directed? Is it going to hit us head on?

It was partially earth directed but not head on, will be a glancing blow. The next 3 days are what worries me...

Dammit. Serious?

why the next 3 days? whats worrisome if it wasnt earth directed?

Thread: Physical Pole Shift of Earth by March 2013+Ascension completed by October 2013

x flare and this to
[link to www.meteorscan.com]

Bigger X-flares to follow as we reach the end of the year. Thread: X-60+ class solar flare by December 20 2012

Look at sunspot 1598 since it started. They flares continue to rise and the spot is growing. If it's still intensifying and growing both, with what data you can view it will continue to spit flares out.

So the next one could be much larger and the next one after that and on and on. It's will facing earth for the next 72 hours. That's not a good equation!

Dude, Solar Guardian... Don't come in here with your thread hijacking epic fail predictions. Go post with Harold Camping...

kthx

Nice....here's a movie from the GONG network H-alpha scopes:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Perhaps we will get our October Surprise

Nice! thank you for that...

You won't be saying that when X-60 cuts off ur Internet and electricity...

I'm ready to dance for any scenario, are you?

Here's the culprit--Active region 1598-
:AR1598:

NOAA Space Weather Alerts issued:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 82
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 23 0336 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Oct 23 0313 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Oct 23 0317 UTC
End Time: 2012 Oct 23 0321 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Location: S10E53
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 567
Issue Time: 2012 Oct 23 0331 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 Oct 23 0315 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Oct 23 0316 UTC
End Time: 2012 Oct 23 0318 UTC
Duration: 3 minutes
Peak Flux: 620 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 156 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/23/2012 02:46 AM

I'm not worried about the next few days when the sun spot will be earth-facing. I have noticed that when the spots are earth-facing, the flares seem to cease. The biggest flares and most activity seem to consistently be directed away from earth. Anyone know why that is? Is something else drawing the sun's energy?

Please keep us posted.

...or someone is taking care of us?

This one shows no signs of decaying while it's been on the limb so far.

There doesn't appear to be much of a CME from this one. The SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs aren't showing much anyway....and no large proton event seen.

SDO Movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]


:131angstrom:

SDO images of event:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Yeah, we've been lucky so far. Right now I'm also concerned with AR1596 which is directly Earth-facing. Both regions are near the equator so we may not dodge the bullets this time.

AR1596-
:AR1596-10/-21:

Looks like it has grown a little bit.