**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 5073178 United States 10/30/2012 12:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 12:21 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | "Nearly one-in-three Ohio voters (32%) have already cast their ballots. Obama leads 62% to 36% among these voters." [link to www.rasmussenreports.com] |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 12:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Giftedest User ID: 10743044 United States 10/30/2012 12:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 12:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 12:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Something else in this Gallup survey also helps shed some light on what we're seeing in these sometimes counter-intuitive state polls. As the headline states, Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 12:40 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | quote: But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008. |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 12:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Gallup is showing that only 15% of the public has already voted. Moreover, they've broken down early voting by region and show that in the Midwest only 13% of voters have already voted. And yet, many polls in places like Ohio show a much higher percentage of early voters, some as high as 30%, which you can bet skews the data. In other words, those polls can't be correct. Quoting: Fire Watch Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the likelihood that some states, that are members of that set, have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26594951 United States 10/30/2012 12:49 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Exacty why Barry will further shred the Constitution which specifies that "on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every second year" national elections are to be held--and neither the Civil War, WW1 or WW2 or plenty of other big storms over the last 230 years have stopped elections from proceeding for all who were able to get to the polling places. Emperor Barry will decree otherwise, in hopes that the Billions of borrowed $ he gives to people too lame to buy insrance to protect their property against losses will buy him some more freeshitarmy votes, like doubling the number of foodstamp mooches driving new cars and investing in colorful tattoos instead of feeding themselves, and careless breeders pooping out mutts on Medicaid, or "so I can call my grandchildren" "obamaphone " leeches. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 12:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Exacty why Barry will further shred the Constitution which specifies that "on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every second year" national elections are to be held--and neither the Civil War, WW1 or WW2 or plenty of other big storms over the last 230 years have stopped elections from proceeding for all who were able to get to the polling places. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26594951 Emperor Barry will decree otherwise, in hopes that the Billions of borrowed $ he gives to people too lame to buy insrance to protect their property against losses will buy him some more freeshitarmy votes, like doubling the number of foodstamp mooches driving new cars and investing in colorful tattoos instead of feeding themselves, and careless breeders pooping out mutts on Medicaid, or "so I can call my grandchildren" "obamaphone " leeches. You may be right but I believe it will backfire. Fence sitters (and a lot of others) would be scared shitless! |
Desert Fox User ID: 8786935 United States 10/30/2012 12:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Judethz User ID: 20521597 United Kingdom 10/30/2012 01:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 01:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. |
Giftedest User ID: 10743044 United States 10/30/2012 01:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:17 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 01:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:24 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup I think you like to see/hear yourelf speak. I suspect that you are/were a teacher. I don't have anything to prove to you and I don't wish to play your game. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 26593513 Australia 10/30/2012 01:27 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:28 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:30 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Desert Fox User ID: 8786935 United States 10/30/2012 01:42 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Judethz User ID: 20521597 United Kingdom 10/30/2012 01:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. I need a conclusion that I can either agree or disagree with. It's 5 AM over here, I've just woke up and I ain't had no koffee. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your conclusion is based on faulty reasoning. If only 13% of midwest voters have cast their ballots, there exists the probability that some states that are members of that set have actually cast their early ballots at the reported rates. Which is to say that the 13% could be some measure of central tendency, arithmetic mean or median, and not necessarily a robust statistic. So Gallup's 13% is not a robust measure as other members in that set have lower early voting statistics that are causing the positive skew. Quoting: Wonkish Well that's clear as mud. It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. :blackcat: I need a conclusion that I can either agree or disagree with. It's 5 AM over here, I've just woke up and I ain't had no koffee. : ) |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 01:48 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Wonkish It is clear, intuitive, and rational. I am sorry that you seem to be having a difficult time understanding such material. You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless. I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 11748204 United States 10/30/2012 01:51 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Fire Watch You will have to take that up with the author of the article... as I stated I was just quoting Gallup. I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless. I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions. You said I was mindlessly believing a misstatement. So temporary mindlessness? |
Desert Fox User ID: 8786935 United States 10/30/2012 02:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Quoting: Desert Fox I am afraid you are right...I am not convinced that Romney will win however. Nor am I, but highly hopeful, as it is looking more likely every day. :TOMABANEFOX: It's more humane this way ya know, or burn on totem pole. Choice is yours. |
Anonymous Coward 10/30/2012 02:04 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: Wonkish I pointed out the flaws in the reasoning and your response is "take that up with the author of the article" without any attempt to negate what was stated. Why not attempt to show the falsity of my statements instead of mindlessly believing a false statement? It should also be noted that you were not quoting Gallup in that particular post. You copied/pasted a snippet from Breitbart. Breitbart != Gallup I'm surprised, and a bit taken aback, that a MOD would call a paying member mindless. I never 'called' you mindless. If I was to have called you mindless, it would have meant that the set of all your actions could be classified as mindless---every element in such a set would would be 'mindless.' Such a statement would not be true and could easily be negated by existential quantification. Also, proving such a statement would have required me to overcome a level a burden that could not be done in a rigorous manner due to the irrationality of man. Perhaps you should try to not reason in an emotional manner and you will not arrive at fallacious conclusions. You said I was mindlessly believing a misstatement. So temporary mindlessness? I take it Logic is not a subject that you are familiar with... |