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James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years

 
Q
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01/24/2006 02:08 AM
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James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
My peace before quoting James Lovelocks new book.

James Lovelock is a rather prominant planetary scientist.
==
Warming then the ice age.

With the equator bulging slightly more than usual, increase in ultraviolet radiation from the sun and additional weight being exerted whilst earth is approaching the nutational cycle and precision of the equinoxes I am of the firm belief that the warming is occurring from all of the above systems.

Result of warming oceans also increase Co2 output and more than usual gases which in turn ups the effects of global warming. The only thing keeping temps slightly down at this point in time is our disgusting pollution that when fades will cause temps to rise even more drastically and in a very accelerated and alarming rate that is out of the normal Gaia cycle.

Due to these extra forces of exertion this in turn may also be causing the core to undergo more pressure, thus causing heating from the inside which may explain why the deep water of the oceans are heating. Above and beyond this it may also lend credence to the reasons of submerged volcanic activities.

There could also be a far out woo woo reason for the core heating in that it may be a crystalline type structure that is being energized from gamma bursts, the sun or other far out space emissions.

Maybe the earth core is tied into the synergetic feelings of human, animal, plant, mammal emotions that in turn could be adding to a turning up of inner heat.

James Lovelock ha recently released a book called revenge of Gaia that will make for some very interesting reading in relation to Climate change effects we could be soon facing.

James Lovelock worked in closely with the viking experiment in the search for life on Mars and was the founder of the original Gaia book that postulates the earth Mother is a giant super organism complete with many feedback systems (which I have always entirely believed) that help her sustain her own life.

Many great scientists turned a blind to this theory for a long time, though now; they seem to be giving it some serious thought.
===

From James Lovelock
-
Each nation must find the best use of its resources to sustain civilisation for as long as they can
Published: 16 January 2006
Imagine a young policewoman delighted in the fulfilment of her vocation; then imagine her having to tell a family whose child had strayed that he had been found dead, murdered in a nearby wood. Or think of a young physician newly appointed who has to tell you that the biopsy revealed invasion by an aggressive metastasising tumour. Doctors and the police know that many accept the simple awful truth with dignity but others try in vain to deny it.

Whatever the response, the bringers of such bad news rarely become hardened to their task and some dread it. We have relieved judges of the awesome responsibility of passing the death sentence, but at least they had some comfort from its frequent moral justification. Physicians and the police have no escape from their duty.

This article is the most difficult I have written and for the same reasons. My Gaia theory sees the Earth behaving as if it were alive, and clearly anything alive can enjoy good health, or suffer disease. Gaia has made me a planetary physician and I take my profession seriously, and now I, too, have to bring bad news.

The climate centres around the world, which are the equivalent of the pathology lab of a hospital, have reported the Earth's physical condition, and the climate specialists see it as seriously ill, and soon to pass into a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years. I have to tell you, as members of the Earth's family and an intimate part of it, that you and especially civilisation are in grave danger.

Our planet has kept itself healthy and fit for life, just like an animal does, for most of the more than three billion years of its existence. It was ill luck that we started polluting at a time when the sun is too hot for comfort. We have given Gaia a fever and soon her condition will worsen to a state like a coma. She has been there before and recovered, but it took more than 100,000 years. We are responsible and will suffer the consequences: as the century progresses, the temperature will rise 8 degrees centigrade in temperate regions and 5 degrees in the tropics.

Much of the tropical land mass will become scrub and desert, and will no longer serve for regulation; this adds to the 40 per cent of the Earth's surface we have depleted to feed ourselves.

Curiously, aerosol pollution of the northern hemisphere reduces global warming by reflecting sunlight back to space. This "global dimming" is transient and could disappear in a few days like the smoke that it is, leaving us fully exposed to the heat of the global greenhouse. We are in a fool's climate, accidentally kept cool by smoke, and before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.

By failing to see that the Earth regulates its climate and composition, we have blundered into trying to do it ourselves, acting as if we were in charge. By doing this, we condemn ourselves to the worst form of slavery. If we chose to be the stewards of the Earth, then we are responsible for keeping the atmosphere, the ocean and the land surface right for life. A task we would soon find impossible - and something before we treated Gaia so badly, she had freely done for us.

To understand how impossible it is, think about how you would regulate your own temperature or the composition of your blood. Those with failing kidneys know the never-ending daily difficulty of adjusting water, salt and protein intake. The technological fix of dialysis helps, but is no replacement for living healthy kidneys.

My new book The Revenge of Gaia expands these thoughts, but you still may ask why science took so long to recognise the true nature of the Earth. I think it is because Darwin's vision was so good and clear that it has taken until now to digest it. In his time, little was known about the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans, and there would have been little reason for him to wonder if organisms changed their environment as well as adapting to it.

Had it been known then that life and the environment are closely coupled, Darwin would have seen that evolution involved not just the organisms, but the whole planetary surface. We might then have looked upon the Earth as if it were alive, and known that we cannot pollute the air or use the Earth's skin - its forest and ocean ecosystems - as a mere source of products to feed ourselves and furnish our homes. We would have felt instinctively that those ecosystems must be left untouched because they were part of the living Earth.

So what should we do? First, we have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and realise how little time is left to act; and then each community and nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain civilisation for as long as they can. Civilisation is energy-intensive and we cannot turn it off without crashing, so we need the security of a powered descent. On these British Isles, we are used to thinking of all humanity and not just ourselves; environmental change is global, but we have to deal with the consequences here in the UK.

Unfortunately our nation is now so urbanised as to be like a large city and we have only a small acreage of agriculture and forestry. We are dependent on the trading world for sustenance; climate change will deny us regular supplies of food and fuel from overseas.

We could grow enough to feed ourselves on the diet of the Second World War, but the notion that there is land to spare to grow biofuels, or be the site of wind farms, is ludicrous. We will do our best to survive, but sadly I cannot see the United States or the emerging economies of China and India cutting back in time, and they are the main source of emissions. The worst will happen and survivors will have to adapt to a hell of a climate.

Perhaps the saddest thing is that Gaia will lose as much or more than we do. Not only will wildlife and whole ecosystems go extinct, but in human civilisation the planet has a precious resource. We are not merely a disease; we are, through our intelligence and communication, the nervous system of the planet. Through us, Gaia has seen herself from space, and begins to know her place in the universe.

We should be the heart and mind of the Earth, not its malady. So let us be brave and cease thinking of human needs and rights alone, and see that we have harmed the living Earth and need to make our peace with Gaia. We must do it while we are still strong enough to negotiate, and not a broken rabble led by brutal war lords. Most of all, we should remember that we are a part of it, and it is indeed our home.

The writer is an independent environmental scientist and Fellow of the Royal Society. 'The Revenge of Gaia' is published by Penguin on 2 February
Q (OP)
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01/24/2006 03:31 AM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
Climate cange can already be seen vividly in the melting of Earths ice sheets, glaciers and masses, the land ice sheet of Greenland and Antartica, and the floating sea ice of the Artic Ocean.

Tthis summer the Artic ice melted so much that it shrunk to a lower extent than ever previously recorded.

This wont cause the sea level to rise, but the Greenland and Antartic ice most definately will.

When the ice age kicks in we could see most of Europe's cities burried under one mile of ice!

Measurements show they are now RAPIDLY melting and contributing to sea level rise that will threaten every costal community on the globe.

We have little option bt to prepare for such consiquences that now loom around the immediate corner.

It wont be long until we start seeing wide spread and dramatic effects of our world as we knew it.
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2006 04:00 AM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
The sad thing is we cant even get all the countries of the world to even agree that climate change is happening. If our 'leaders' won't even admit it then what message does this send to the people of the earth?.

Climate change is inevitable, but the rate at which the climate changes can be slowed. We still waste so much energy on a daily basis. Individually we need to take responsibility for contributing as little to climate change as possible. Walking to the shops, always turning lights off, turning our heating down a few degrees. As a society we can also try to come up with new ideas for saving energy - why not turn off every other street light after 11pm when most people are in bed?. Fit all office blocks with timing devices to shut off the lights at night - how many times do you drive through cities to see empty office blocks lit up like Xmas trees? Wherever you work, encourage your employers and employees to be as energy concious as possible.

It wont stop what is happening, but it might buy us more time, time we can use to try and adapt to the change.
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
2100 said;

The sad thing is we cant even get all the countries of the world to even agree that climate change is happening. If our 'leaders' won't even admit it then what message does this send to the people of the earth?.
===

A very bleak message of our total ignorance of Gaia for greed, lust, control, domination and money is the message being conveyed. It is our separation and division that always leads to our demise.

When are we going to learn that we need to respect Gaia, until we learn to nurture her spirit and physical forms as we can respect our own bodies, mind and spirit; then we will never succeed and advance our civilization to take up residence in other parts of the universe.

Are we going to become another failed great civilization due to our plundering forward with in due to our total ignorance of Gaia and her celestial ancestors.

A global viewpoint has tried to be conveyed from some great scientists but it does seem governments and the like do not wish for people to here this as media attention is constantly drawn towards fear, death, terror and consumerism like there is some kind of manifest or wish to destroy Gaia and her occupants.

2100 said;
Climate change is inevitable, but the rate at which the climate changes can be slowed. We still waste so much energy on a daily basis. Individually we need to take responsibility for contributing as little to climate change as possible.
-

I agree with you whole heartedly and add further that need to care for Gaia, respect her, nurture her and have this as a primary. By learning to care for the Garden then perhaps we might start to merge and care for each other more. Things like loving the water, making sure there is no less fortunate. That everyone has clean drinking water and to manage the production of foods without using chemicals.

These things can be done if it becomes at the for-front of our culture and thought.

Why can learn to live in after places to allow Gaia to grow, have her earthquake and Tsunamis, perhaps these are feedback systems to tell us humans that these places are to be left pure as they may be arteries and capillaries to a delicate system that must remain free of contamination thus helping sustain Gaia’s health.

We will learn her ways or she will reset our ways again! The greatest and most prominent species on the planet gets mighty stupid with all that intellect and ends up being reset through total and utter ignorance.

When will we learn to adapt and change our ways, to think holistically? Our chance to to begin right now or perhaps weight till the next large cycle as we rebuilt and re-learn from scratch all over again.
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2006 06:18 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
bump
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01/24/2006 07:01 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
"The sad thing is we cant even get all the countries of the world to even agree that climate change is happening. If our 'leaders' won't even admit it then what message does this send to the people of the earth?"

Just read a few threads on GLP related to global warming. There are plenty of idiots here who refuse to accept that climate cahnge is happening, so why should a few politicians be any different?

Until the majority of people realise just how serious the situation is, then we don't have much hope of doing anything about it.
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01/24/2006 07:23 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
so why should a few politicians be any different?
---
Cause they are supposed to be informed by top level advisors in an array of interdisciplinary areas. Governments should be using this info to asses and provide appropriate priorities and plans.

I somewhat think the Governments are well informed on this subject and are simply acting out decoy operations so as to not alarm the public ahead of schedule. The FEMA camps and alike are being setup for this very reason.

The governments do not intend on providing a solution for the world’s population simply because the problem is too immense and the logistics are simply inconceivable.

So I guess it’s a wait and see approach with a reactionary response, people will be running in all directions with no plans to execute, sadly this will cause disarray and a large number of deaths, but what can be done to stop this course of action.

The ones whom have plans and are calm and methodical in their reactions to the possible climatic consequences will likely survive the major onslaughts of events providing they stay away from the crowds.

Divine grace will lead some to places of safety whilst others have already planned and prepared for disaster scenarios.

In some cases no amount of planning will help as unpredictable and daunting events occur that defy most peoples imaginations.

I guess the only hope we have of doing anything about this; is by planning and learning from our mistakes, be sure our children and their children fix the great many errors made and learn to live more in harmony with Gaia.
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01/25/2006 02:34 AM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
Russian scientists drill Antarctica to the bottom

Antarctica is the world's most secure bank

A scientist is keen on drilling deeper wells in Antarctica if he happens to explore the ice-clad continent. One of the projects dealing with the scientific drilling in Antarctica is called European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica. Scientists analyzed the core samples taken from a depth of more than 3,000 meters. The most important results have to do with the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the earth's atmosphere, which showed the highest levels for the last 650,000 years.

Antarctica is the world's most secure bank. The Antarctic ice is especially valuable because the air bubbles frozen in the ice keep intact the air makeup since time immemorial. EPICA project involved participation of 10 European countries. Scientists drilled to 3,270 meters or the equivalent to 900,000 years traveled backwards in a time machine.

Russian scientists have drilled the ice to nearly 3,700 meters reaching the time equivalent of 440,000 years. The drilling is conducted above the underground lake in the vicinity of the Russian station Vostok. Russian scientists intend to continue drilling though the main objectives of their research are glaciology and paleontology. They are going to reach the underground lake after drilling the last 130 meters. The underground lake may have some unknown life forms.

"The concentration of carbon dioxide is 30% higher today than in any era examined by ice core samples while the level of methane is 130% higher," said Tomas Stocker at the University of Bern. "The gas concentration rate has increased spectacularly, these days it is 200 times higher than it was 650,000 years ago. The findings prove that carbon dioxide plays an immense role in the formation of climate on Earth," added he.

The highest concentration of green gases over the last 650,000 years brings out quite a bit of confusion in terms of climate change forecasting. After analyzing the core samples from Antarctica, European glaciologists concluded that the present warming period equaled the interglacial period that took place 400,000 years ago and lasted for 28,000 years.

Scientists are still in disagreement over the alleged link between the concentration of carbon dioxide and climate change. Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Kapitsa is confident that increasing levels of the carbon dioxide does not result in the greenhouse effect. Many scientists of note believe that man-made gas emissions can not lead to changes of the earth's thermal conditions. There is a different kind of dependence revealed by climate restoration technique on the basis of various data including those of the Antarctic core samples.

The warming caused by different reasons led to an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in days of old. Perhaps the circumstance can be explained by the fact that 95% of all carbon monoxide is dissolved in the ocean. The higher goes the temperature, the less gas water can retain. Once the warming period sets in, the ocean begins to breathe and "spit out" carbon dioxide in amounts that defy imagination. The findings of the Russian drilling operation in Antarctica indicate that climate warming always preceded the increase of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. The findings contradict the greenhouse effect theory and scientific foundations the Kyoto protocol is based upon. Notwithstanding the findings, the fight for gas emissions reduction and clean atmosphere is still worthwhile.

[link to english.pravda.ru]
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
Frm here -> [link to www.godlikeproductions.com]


The sun "charges" our atmosphere, and this has an impact on the core of the earth as well as the surface temperatures

from Mir Station research:

[link to space-env.esa.int]

A clear feature of the results is the great dynamism of the electron environment. It is found that disturbed periods in the radiation belts correlate well with solar rotation. This is clear evidence for a recurring connection between long-standing solar stream features and the earth's magnetosphere, which trigger injections and acceleration of energetic electrons. This was particularly clear in the period March-May 1995, but has also been present since then in September-October 1995, and March-April 1996. Also of interest is the clear seasonal pattern in these enhancements. After a high-speed stream arrives, the energetic flux increases. Before it does so, however, the flux is seen to drop-out . This is a feature also seen on other spacecraft. The time-scales for dropouts and subsequent increases must say something about energetic particle dynamics in the magnetosphere and this will be the subject of further research. The radiation belts move quite substantially in response to the varying activity. This feature is even stronger correlated with the solar rotation period. The motion is determined essentially by injection of energetic electrons at higher L values and either a diffusion to lower L value or differential loss rates at different L values.



These pictures are very revealing.

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

They come from a section called planet under pressure.

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

CLIMATE CHANGE: KEY STORIES


CO2 'highest for 650,000 years'
Q&A: Blair's climate strategy
Water builds the heat in Europe
'Gas muzzlers' challenge Bush
PM pessimistic on climate treaty
Climate summit postponed
Q&A: The Kyoto Protocol

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]
Q
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01/27/2006 06:11 AM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
bump for those that missed
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
A triple fold effect occurring with water supplies.

As it gets hotter, evaporation increases, water diminishes, populations grow and the need to drink more water due to population and heat increases; thus we have a major effect occurring with water supplies around the world.

Here is one example (with pictures) showing the dramatic effect of water reduction occurring in Egypt.

===
March 2001
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

December 2005
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

Nearly six years of regional drought and rapidly increasing demand for water have resulted in decreasing water levels in lakes throughout East Africa. Water levels in Africa’s largest lake, Lake Victoria, have dropped by about 1 meter (3 feet) over the past 10 years. The drought has similarly impacted the source regions of the Nile River, reducing water flows downstream into Egypt and Lake Nasser.

This pair of images documents recent drops in water levels in the Toshka Lakes region of Egypt. The Toshka Lakes and the New Valley surrounding the lakes constitute a major Egyptian project to claim a huge area of desert for agriculture and industry by diverting Nile River water from Lake Nasser. The initial flooding occurred in the late 1990s, when Lake Nasser water levels were at an all-time high. The flooded regions of the Toshka Lakes west of Lake Nasser have decreased greatly over the years, exposing the former dune fields (dunes appear as islands in the lake and along the shoreline of the top image), and leaving a “bath-tub ring” of wetlands (dark region) surrounding the lake shorelines. As both the drought and development continue, this region of Egypt is sure to change.

Astronaut photograph ISS012-E-11639 was acquired December 11, 2005, with a Kodak 760C digital camera using an 180 mm lens, and is provided by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment and the Image Science & Analysis Group, Johnson Space Center. The earlier image, STS102-716-25, was taken from the Space Shuttle on March 15, 2001 using a Hasselblad film camera equipped with a 250 mm lens. The International Space Station Program supports the laboratory to help astronauts take pictures of Earth that will be of the greatest value to scientists and the public, and to make those images freely available on the Internet. Additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

January 9, 2006

RESEARCHERS CONFIRM ROLE OF MASSIVE FLOOD IN CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate modelers at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) have succeeded in reproducing the climate changes caused by a massive freshwater pulse into the North Atlantic that occurred at the beginning of the current warm period 8,000 years ago. Their work is the first to consistently model the event and the first time that the model results have been validated by comparison to the record of climate proxies that scientists regularly use to study the Earth’s past.

“We only have one example of how the climate reacts to changes, the past,” said Gavin A. Schmidt, a GISS researcher and co-author on the study. “If we’re going to accurately simulate the Earth’s future, we need to be able to replicate past events. This was a real test of the model’s skill.”

The study was led by Allegra LeGrande, a graduate student in the department of earth and environmental sciences at Columbia University. The results appear in a paper being published in this week’s edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

The group used an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model known as GISS Model E-R to simulate the climate impact of a massive freshwater flood into the North Atlantic that happened about 8,200 years ago after the end of the last Ice Age. As retreating glaciers opened a route for two ancient meltwater lakes known as Agassiz and Ojibway to suddenly and catastrophically drain from the middle of the North American continent.

At approximately the same time, climate records show that the Earth experienced its last abrupt climate shift. Scientists believe that the massive freshwater pulse interfered with the ocean’s overturning circulation, which distributes heat around the globe. According to the record of what are known as climate proxies, average air temperatures apparently dropped fell as much as several degrees in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate researchers use these proxies—chemical signals locked in minerals and ice bubbles as well as pollen and other biological indicators—as indirect measures of temperature and precipitation patterns in the distant past. Because GISS Model E-R incorporates the response of these proxies in its output, the authors of the PNAS study were able to compare their results directly to the historical record.

The researchers prodded their model with a freshwater pulse equal to between 25 and 50 times the flow of the Amazon River in 12 model runs that took more than a year to complete. Although the simulations largely agreed with proxy records from North Atlantic sediment cores and Greenland ice cores, the team’s results showed that the flood had much milder effects around the globe than many people fear—including the dramatic shifts in climate depicted in the 2004 movie ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.

According to the model, temperatures in the North Atlantic and Greenland showed the largest decrease, with slightly less cooling over parts of North America and Europe. The rest of the northern hemisphere, however, showed very little effect, and temperatures in the southern hemisphere remained largely unchanged. Moreover, ocean circulation, which initially dropped by half after simulated flood, appeared to rebound within 50 to 150 years.

“This was probably the closest thing to a ‘Day After Tomorrow’ scenario that we could model,” said LeGrande. “The flood we looked at was even larger than anything that could happen today. Still, it’s important for us to study because the real thing occurred during a period when conditions were not that much different from the present day.”

The GISS climate model is also being used for the latest simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to simulate the Earth’s present and future climate. “Hopefully, successful simulations of the past such as this will increase confidence in the validity of model projections,” said Schmidt.

The study was funded by NASA, National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship, and the National Science Foundation.
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[link to earthobservatory.nasa.gov]

January 4, 2006

GLOBAL WARMING CAN TRIGGER EXTREME OCEAN, CLIMATE CHANGES, SCRIPPS-LED STUDY REVEALS


New research produced by scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, helps illustrate how global warming caused by greenhouse gases can quickly disrupt ocean processes and lead to drastic climatological, biological and other important changes around the world. Although the events described in the research unfolded millions of years ago and spanned thousands of years, the researchers say the findings provide clues to help better understand the long-term impacts of today’s human-influenced climate warming.

Flavia Nunes and Richard Norris investigated the chemical makeup of tiny ancient sea creatures at various locations around the world. They probed a four- to seven-degree warming period that occurred some 55 million years ago during the closing stages of the Paleocene and the beginning of the Eocene eras.

The unique data set they constructed uncovered for the first time a monumental reversal in the circulation of deep-ocean patterns around the world and helped the researchers conclude that it was triggered by the global warming the world experienced at the time. The research, published in the January 5 edition of the journal Nature, is one of the few historical analogs for large-scale sea circulation changes tied to global warming.

“The earth is a system that can change very rapidly. Fifty-five million years ago, when the earth was in a period of global warmth, ocean currents rapidly changed direction and this change did not reverse to original conditions for about 20,000 years,” said Nunes. “What this tells us is that the changes that we make to the earth today (such as anthropogenically induced global warming) could lead to dramatic changes to our planet.”

The global warming of 55 million years ago, known as the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), emerged in less than 5,000 years, an instantaneous blip on geological time scales (the researchers indicate that 5,000 years can be considered an upper limit and they believe the warming could have unfolded much more quickly than geological records can show them). The PETM set in motion a host of important changes around the globe, including a mass extinction of deep-sea bottom-dwelling marine life. Fossil records indicate key migrations of terrestrial mammal species during this time—including evidence of the first horses and primates in North America and Europe—likely allowed by warm conditions that opened travel routes not possible under previously colder climates.

Nunes and Norris analyzed carbon isotopes, chemical signatures that reveal a host of information, from the shells of single-celled animals called foraminifera. Such organisms exist in a variety of marine environments and their vast numbers per research sample allow scientists to uncover a range of details about the state of the seas.

“It’s really interesting how a tiny little shell from a sea creature living millions of years ago can tell us so much about past ocean conditions,” said Nunes. “We can tell approximately what the temperature was at the bottom of the ocean. We also have an approximate measure of the nutrient content of the water the creature lived in. And, when we have information from several locations, we can tell the direction of ocean currents.”

In the Nature study, the scientists analyzed foraminifera called Nuttalides truempyi from 14 sites around the world in deep-sea sediment cores maintained by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program. The isotopes were used as nutrient “tracers” to reconstruct changes in deep-ocean circulation through the PETM period. Nutrient levels tell the researchers how long a sample has been near or isolated from the sea surface, thus giving them a way to track the age and flow path of deep sea water.

The results revealed that deep-ocean circulation abruptly switched from “overturning”—a conveyor belt-like process in which cold and salty water exchanges with warm surface water—in the Southern Hemisphere, where it virtually shut down, and became active in the Northern Hemisphere. The researchers believe this shift drove unusually warm water to the deep sea, likely releasing stores of methane gas that led to further global warming and a massive die off in deep sea marine life.

Overturning is a fundamental component of the global climate conditions that we know today. For example, overturning in the modern North Atlantic Ocean is a primary means of drawing heat into the far north Atlantic and keeping temperatures in Europe relatively warmer than conditions in Canada, for example. Today, “new” deep-water generation does not occur in the Pacific Ocean because of the large amount of freshwater input from the polar regions that prevents North Pacific waters from becoming dense enough to sink to more than intermediate depths. In the case of the Paleocene/Eocene period, however, deep-water formation was possible in the Pacific Ocean because of the global warming-induced changes. The Atlantic Ocean also could have been a significant generator of deep waters during this period.

In the paper, the authors note that modern carbon dioxide input from fossil fuel sources to the earth’s surface is approaching the same levels estimated for the PETM period, which raises concerns about future climate and changes in ocean circulation. Thus they say the Paleocene/Eocene example suggests that human-produced changes may have lasting effects not only in global climate, but in deep ocean circulation as well.

“Overturning is very sensitive to surface ocean temperatures and surface ocean salinity,” said Norris, a professor in the Geosciences Research Division at Scripps. “The case described in this paper may be one of our best examples of global warming triggered by the massive release of greenhouse gases and therefore it gives us a perspective on what the long-term impact is likely to be of today’s greenhouse warming that humans are causing.”

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Science Support Program. IODP is sponsored by NSF and Japan’s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The JOI Alliance (JOI, Texas A & M University Research Foundation and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University) manages scientific drilling operations conducted aboard the U.S.-sponsored drilling vessel, on behalf of IODP.
idol_harobed

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01/29/2006 10:56 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
A hotter Earth is good for reptiles.

KD
I am what I read.
Q (OP)
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01/29/2006 11:30 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
More reptiles, but less food for them as land dwellers, amphibians and ocean creatures diminish.

I guess they will turn cannibalistic.

So in short they will dominate for a little while, though short lived - hehe
:)
reborn seeker nli
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01/29/2006 11:34 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
..
Cockroaches shall inherit the Earth!

monster
Q (OP)
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01/30/2006 06:00 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
LOL

Some more to add, this was on the headlines of GLP today.

I remember a few years ago when Blair gagged his chief scientists for making some noise about climate change being a greater threat than the apparent war on terror.

My,my, how the table is starting to turn as it is becoming all to obvious to ignore.

Its about time the heads of heads started turning their heads to attention of this important issue than needs to be addressed.

Better late than never I guess.

===============
[link to news.independent.co.uk]

Climate Poses Increased Threat, Admits Blair

Independent UK
2006-01-30

Tony Blair has admitted that the risks of climate change may be more serious than previously thought.

The Prime Minister's concern is revealed today in a book that contains compelling evidence from some of the world's leading scientists of the growing threat to the planet.

Reassessments of major risks to the Earth, such as the melting of the great land-based ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which would raise sea levels disastrously, or the slowing down of the Gulf Stream, which would plunge Britain into a new ice age, show that they may be triggered by temperature rises well within those already predicted for the coming century.

The fresh appraisals indicate that the situation is far more dangerous than that set out in the last report of the main scientific body monitoring global warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). That study, the IPCC's third assessment report, known to scientists as the TAR, said there was "new and stronger evidence" that much of the warming already observed in recent decades had been caused by human activities, such as the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases from power stations and motor vehicles. Most ominously, it predicted a global mean temperature rise of between 1.6C and 5.8C by the end of the century.

However, the TAR was published in 2001, which with climate change is now a relatively long time ago - both in terms of the understanding of the science of global warming, and of the speed with which climate-related events, such as extreme heatwaves and the melting of the Arctic sea ice, now seem to be occurring.

The next IPCC study, the fourth assessment report, is not due until 2007. So in the meantime, the British Government has sponsored a project to bring the science of global warming up to date, taking in all the latest developments, based on a conference held at the headquarters of the UK Meteorological Office in Exeter last year.

Today the records of the conference are being published in a book entitled Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change - and Tony Blair says in the foreword: "It is clear from the work presented that the risks of climate change may well be greater than we thought."

The book publishes the Exeter conference's remarkable and menacing findings. These included the unexpected announcement from the head of the British Antarctic Survey, Professor Chris Rapley, that the huge West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be starting to disintegrate - an event which alone would raise sea levels around the world by 16ft.

The last IPCC report - the TAR - dismissed worries about the ice sheet's stability. Professor Rapley, reporting that ice was now flowing into the sea from it at enormous rates, said that that judgement had to be revised. "The last IPCC report characterised Antarctica as a slumbering giant in terms of climate change," he said. "I would say it is now an awakened giant. There is real concern."

Another new concern raised at the conference was the acidification of the oceans, caused by the same greenhouse gas responsible for global warming. The huge volumes of carbon dioxide produced by industry and transport are not only raising temperatures, but turning the world's oceans acid as the CO2 is dissolved in seawater, and putting an enormous array of marine life at risk. Ocean acidification may wipe out much of the microscopic plankton at the base of the marine food web, and have a knock-on effect up through shellfish to major human food species such as cod. It is already having a serious impact on organisms such as coral, and putting a question-mark against the future of coral reefs.

The Exeter conference report itself makes no bones about the seriousness of the situation. It says: "Compared with the TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change across a wide range of systems, sectors and societies. In many cases the risks are more serious than previously thought." It goes on: "A number of critical temperature levels and rates of change relative to pre-industrial times were noted. These vary for the globe, specific regions and sensitive ecosystems. For example a regional increase above present levels of 2.7C may be a threshold that triggers melting of the Greenland ice-cap, while an increase in global temperatures of about 1C is likely to lead to extensive coral bleaching.

It warned of increasing damage if temperatures rose about 1C to 3C above current levels. Serious risk of large-scale irreversible system disruption, such as reversal of the land carbon sink and possible destabilisation of the Antarctic ice sheets, is more likely above 3C. "Such levels are well within the range of climate change projections for the century."

Referring to the possible collapse of the Gulf Stream, the report says: "While a clear temperature threshold has not been identified for shutdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, studies were presented suggesting that a shutdown becomes more likely with increasing temperature."
[link to wwaw.godlikeproductions.com]
the (real) mccoys
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01/30/2006 09:29 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
everybodys,
got the fever.
that is something you all know!

fever isn't,
such a new thing,
fever started long time ago!
Q
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01/31/2006 09:11 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
January 24, 2006

2005 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR IN A CENTURY
The year 2005 may have been the warmest year in a century, according to NASA scientists studying temperature data from around the world.

Climatologists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City noted that the highest global annual average surface temperature in more than a century was recorded in their analysis for the 2005 calendar year.

Some other research groups that study climate change rank 2005 as the second warmest year, based on comparisons through November. The primary difference among the analyses, according to the NASA scientists, is the inclusion of the Arctic in the NASA analysis. Although there are few weather stations in the Arctic, the available data indicate that 2005 was unusually warm in the Arctic.

In order to figure out whether the Earth is cooling or warming, the scientists use temperature data from weather stations on land, satellite measurements of sea surface temperature since 1982, and data from ships for earlier years.

Previously, the warmest year of the century was 1998, when a strong El Niño, a warm water event in the eastern Pacific Ocean, added warmth to global temperatures. However, what’s significant, regardless of whether 2005 is first or second warmest, is that global warmth has returned to about the level of 1998 without the help of an El Niño.

The result indicates that a strong underlying warming trend is continuing. Global warming since the middle 1970s is now about 0.6 degrees Celsius (C) or about 1 degree Fahrenheit (F). Total warming in the past century is about 0.8° C or about 1.4° F.

“The five warmest years over the last century occurred in the last eight years,” said James Hansen, director of NASA GISS. They stack up as follows: the warmest was 2005, then 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.

Over the past 30 years, the Earth has warmed by 0.6° C or 1.08° F. Over the past 100 years, it has warmed by 0.8° C or 1.44° F.

Current warmth seems to be occurring nearly everywhere at the same time and is largest at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the last 50 years, the largest annual and seasonal warmings have occurred in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula. Most ocean areas have warmed. Because these areas are remote and far away from major cities, it is clear to climatologists that the warming is not due to the influence of pollution from urban areas.

For more information about global temperature trends on the Web, visit:
[link to data.giss.nasa.gov]
Q
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02/03/2006 11:41 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
[link to www.news.com.au]

TWO major glaciers in Greenland have recently begun to flow and break up more quickly under the onslaught of global warming, according to a new study which has raised the spectre of millions drowning from rising sea levels.

The report by the University of Swansea's School of the Environment and Society said the Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim glaciers had doubled their rate of flow to the ocean over the past two years after steady movement during the 1990s.
This spurt meant that current environmental models of the rate of retreat of Greenland's giant ice sheet – which could add seven metres to the height of the world's oceans if it disappears – had underestimated the problem.

"It seems likely that other Greenland outlets will undergo similar changes, which would impact the mass balance of the ice sheet more rapidly than predicted," the study said.

It said the fact that the two major outflow glaciers had shown the same sudden acceleration despite being more than 300km apart suggested the cause was not local but more likely climatic or oceanic in origin.

"In both of these glaciers the acceleration and retreat has been sudden, despite the progressive nature of warming and thinning over some years," the report said.


Advertisement:
"The longevity of this flux increase is unknown but could be substantial," it added.
The report followed a warning earlier this week from Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research – a branch of the Meteorological Office – that the Greenland ice sheet could be disappearing faster than previously thought.

The ice sheet contains one-tenth of the world's freshwater reserves.

Scientists predict that global average temperatures will rise by between one and six degrees Celsius this century unless urgent action is taken now to cap and reduce carbon emissions.

Even a rise of three degrees could result in cataclysmic species loss, melting polar icecaps raising sea levels by many metres and wholesale famine and disease.

Greenland is only part of the picture, and there is also evidence of local warming and melting on the giant Western Antarctic ice sheet.

Scientists said on Monday the world had to halt greenhouse gas emissions and reverse them within two decades or watch the planet spiralling towards destruction.

The first phase of the global Kyoto protocol on cutting greenhouse gas emissions runs until 2012, and negotiations have only just started on finding a way of taking it beyond that.

The United States, the world's biggest polluter, has rejected both the protocol in its current form and any suggestion of expanding or extending it.
Q
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04/01/2006 08:02 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
sheesh, I lost a month of data in here, I will attempt in updating it to the end of March over the next weeks.
====

Rapid temperature increases above the Antarctic

30-Mar-2006

30 year weather balloon record

A new analysis of weather balloon observations from the last 30 years reveals that the Antarctic has the same 'global warming' signature as that seen across the whole Earth, but is three times larger than that observed globally. The results by scientists from British Antarctic Survey are reported this week in Science.
Although the rapid surface warming in the Antarctic Peninsula region has been known for some time, this study has produced the first indications of broad-scale climate change across the whole Antarctic continent.

Lead author Dr John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey says,

"The rapid surface warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and the enhanced global warming signal over the whole continent shows the complexity of climate change. Greenhouses gases could be having a bigger impact in Antarctica than across the rest of the world and we don't understand why. So far we haven't been able to determine the mechanisms behind the warming.

"The warming above the Antarctic could have implications for snowfall across the Antarctic and sea level rise. Current climate model simulations don't reproduce the observed warming, pointing to weaknesses in their ability to represent the Antarctic climate system. Our next step is to try to improve the models. "
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2006 08:35 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
Curiously, aerosol pollution of the northern hemisphere reduces global warming by reflecting sunlight back to space.
*****
but, persistant contrails (an aerosol) causes heat traps
this article is cleverly worded disinfo
Anonymous Coward
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04/15/2006 06:27 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
2006-04-15

The world's temperature is on course to rise by more than three degrees Centigrade despite efforts to combat global warming, Britain's chief scientist has warned.

Sir David King issued a stark wake-up call that climate change could cause devastating consequences such as famine and drought for hundreds of millions of people unless the world's politicians take more urgent action.

Britain and the rest of the European Union have signed up to a goal of limiting the temperature rise to two degrees. In his strongest warning yet on the issue, Sir David suggested the EU limit will be exceeded.

According to computer-modelled predictions for the Government, a three-degree rise in temperatures could put 400 million more people at risk of hunger; leave between one and three billion more people at risk of water stress; cause cereal crop yields to fall by between 20 and 400 million tons; and destroy half the world's nature reserves.

Environmentalists warned that Greenland's ice cap could melt, raising sea levels by six metres. In Britain, the main threat would come from flooding and "coastal attack" as sea levels rose.

In a BBC interview yesterday, Sir David said it was essential that the world began to make the necessary changes now. "We don't have to succumb to a state of despondency where we say that there is nothing we can do so let's just carry on living as per usual. It is very important to understand that we can manage the risks to our population - and around the world," he said. "What we are talking about here is something that will play through over decades - we are talking 100 years or so. We need to begin that process of investment. It is going to be a major challenge for the developing countries. There are no certainties here. If you ask me where do we feel the temperature is likely to end up if we move to a level of carbon dioxide of 550 parts per million - which is roughly twice the pre-industrial level and the level at which we would be optimistically hoping we could settle - the temperature rise could well be in excess of three degrees Centigrade. And yet we are saying 550 parts per million in the atmosphere is probably the best we can achieve through global agreement."

Tony Blair appears resigned to not securing a "Kyoto mark 2" agreement under which countries would set firm targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions, which is opposed by the Bush administration, India and China. But he is trying to win international agreement on a goal of stabilising temperatures and carbon emissions at current levels when the Kyoto agreement expires in 2012, mainly through cleaner energy technology.

Sir David made a thinly veiled attack on President Bush's approach after his chief climate adviser James Connaughton said recently he did not believe anyone could forecast a safe carbon dioxide level and that cutting greenhouse gas emissions could harm the world economy. Sir David said politicians who believed they could simply rely on new technologies to produce cleaner fuels should start listening to the scientists. "There is a difference between optimism and head in the sand," he said.

But the Government's critics accused Sir David of being defeatist. Tony Juniper, director of Friends of the Earth, said: "It is technologically possible to significantly reduce our emissions and deliver two degrees [Centigrade]. Professor King should be pressing for Government policies to deliver on this rather than accepting the current lack of political will and talking of three degrees as an inevitability.

"The best thing Tony Blair could do is to bring in the climate change law called for in The Big Ask campaign which would enable the UK to show the world that it is possible to reduce emissions by delivering on our targets at home."

Peter Ainsworth, the shadow Environment Secretary, said: "Sir David King's pessimism on climate change is disturbing. All credible scientific evidence, including his own, clearly implies that a rise in global temperature of over two degrees Centigrade would threaten to unleash rapid and catastrophic climate change, leading to economic and social disaster. The world's poorest people would be hit first and hardest. With effective political action at international, national and local levels, we can not only avert this disaster, but also create lasting prosperity based on clean, new technologies. Defeatism can only pave the way to a miserable future."

Tony Grayling, associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, said: "We are not bound to get to three degrees. Even with technology we have got, we can stay within two degrees." He urged the Government to set a target of cutting its carbon dioxide emissions by 90 per cent by 2050. It has pledged to reduce them by 60 per cent by 2050 but admitted last month it would miss its goal of cutting them by 20 per cent of 1990 levels by 2010.

SEAS RISE

2100, and the world's temperature has risen by 3C. The ice cap covering Greenland is in retreat, eventually adding 7 metres to sea levels, and the west Antarctic ice sheet starts melting. Arctic summer sea ice disappears, killing the polar bear. You can sail to the North Pole. Coastal urban populations in Africa and Asia are at risk.

RAINFOREST RETREATS

The Amazon breaks down as rainfall decreases, causing the forest to collapse into savannah. It deals a devastating blow to global biodiversity - the basin is home to millions of species of wildlife - and the earth's ability to recycle carbon emissions. The ocean and the soil become net carbon contributors, further speeding global warming.

WEATHER WORSENS

Climate increasingly volatile as warming adds energy to weather systems. Events of the past decade foreshadow floods (Bangladesh, India), drought (east Africa), hurricanes and cyclones (Mozambique, Nicaragua and Honduras), forest fires (the Mediterranean, Alaska and Russia) and insect plagues (Canada) that wrack the globe.

DROUGHT SPREADS

Africa's Great Lakes shrivel; Malawi's wetlands dry up and acute water shortages threaten fishing and farming livelihoods (40 per cent of its GDP). Worldwide, 3bn people face severe "water stress", with possible water wars in Central Asia and Africa. Mass migration out of North Africa. By 2100, Peru faces drought as its glaciers melt.

ECOSYSTEMS COLLAPSE

A fifth of the world's surface has changed significantly, from melting Arctic tundra to vanishing cloud forest in Queensland, Australia (exterminating the native Golden Bowerbird, above). A 3.7C rise would kill or critically endanger 40 per cent of Africa's mammals. Up to 38 per cent of Europe's birds and 20 per cent of its plants are extinct or at risk.

FAMINE GROWS

Snow melts earlier in the year so water sources dry before crops finish growing in areas such as the Sierra Nevada and northern India, left. Up to 400 million people at risk of hunger as 400 million tons of cereal crops are lost, with Africa hit worst. Crop yields fall for the first time since the agricultural revolution in Europe, Russia and America.

What if...

55 Percentage of the world's population would be exposed to dengue fever - up from 30 per cent in 1990. Insect-borne diseases like dengue and malaria, which already claim 1.3m lives a year, would spread away from the equator towards the poles.

3bn Population at risk of water shortages as rising temperatures dry surface water and reduce rainfall.

54 Percentage of mammals that will die in South Africa (worst-case scenario). Up to 40 per cent of the country's birds, 70 per cent of butterflies and 45 per cent of reptiles will also be extinct or critically endangered.

1/2 Nature reserves that will no longer be able to fulfil their conservation objectives, due to dying species or habitats.

-10c British temperature drop during wintertime, once global warming reaches the point where it disrupts Atlantic Ocean currents and switches off the Gulf Stream, which currently warms our island. The North Atlantic marine ecosystem could also collapse when half the plankton die. It is not known exactly what the "tipping point" temperature for this is, but 3C would be close.
Johnny Danger

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04/15/2006 06:36 PM
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Re: James Lovelock: The Earth is about to catch a morbid fever that may last as long as 100,000 years
A hotter Earth is good for reptiles

--------------------------------------

lol

KD

--------------------------------------

I posted a story on here this morning, that got a little play. But the Forum PTB found it not that important. But I think this is quite important. Do a search for my thread, or check the list. It's on there. Got some great Feedback.

John





GLP