2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

While we still can... might as well enjoy it... life's too short... unless ur a vampire lol lol



...but keep ur eyes peeled... im telling ya Jan. 15th is gonna be hella of wintery mess... Its natures Birthday gift to me... dont know if Nature is celebrating or mourning it


Be cool RJ

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/05/2013 12:23 AM

There will never be a Cocaine Avalanche for you again! But really, I do expect a cold shot at least in the Eastern parts of the USA around Jan 20th. In the Midwest before. Just nothing like a "deadly arctic outbreak", haha.

Down here in the deep South, our worst problem is getting a system along the Southern Stream to phase with the Northern Stream at the right time to not give us anything but rain.

Brutal Cold Waves Could be Heading for the U.S.

On the other hand...maybe not.

So it's basically the concept of the movie the day after tomorrow?

Thank you so much!

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

@MEschoolweather @GavinPartridge @Netweather - It's a major cold outlier in terms of very cold conditions for the UK - [link to www.meteociel.com] …

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Caution urged as it's a big change from last update, but latest EC32 shows a much colder outlook for 2nd half of January. Greenland block.

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

00Z EC model continues to bring in colder weather by next week - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … - EC ENS will be particularly important today.

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

The N Hem view of the 240hr EC model is crazy in terms of the extent of northern blocking! - [link to www.meteociel.fr] … ooodles of potential.

7 h Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

That is one 'dead' stratospheric vortex! - [link to wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de] … - Fascinating period of weather on the way for the UK in the next month.

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

00z GFS ENS 2m temp anom chart clearly highlights a large portion of Central/N Europe heading into the 'freezer'... [link to twitter.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

That's a trend that needs watching. High pressure initially over the UK migrating towards Greenland longer term = sustained cold/very cold.

2 hMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Excellent evolution from the 06Z GFS - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

Posted 53 minutes ago

[link to www.weer.nl]

Excellent new. Dutch weather organisation Meteo Consult is picking up the stratospheric developments as well. It´s becoming ´mainstream´. [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Brad Panovich9:45 AM - Public<br>The polar vortex has shifted into Siberia right now. This is a big reason we will be warming on the other side of the globe. Long term guidance shows the vortex shifting back to North America late this month. I'll be watching where this goes over the next few weeks. Those temperatures in Siberia are around -50° to -60° right now [link to icons-ak.wunderground.com]

Down to -50C: Russians freeze to death as strongest-in-decades winter hits

Russian Times

Russia is enduring its harshest winter in over 70 years, with temperatures plunging as low as -50 degrees Celsius. Dozens of people have already died, and almost 150 have been hospitalized.

­The country has not witnessed such a long cold spell since 1938, meteorologists said, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than the seasonal norm all over Russia.

Across the country, 45 people have died due to the cold, and 266 have been taken to hospitals. In total, 542 people were injured due to the freezing temperatures, RIA Novosti reported.

The Moscow region saw temperatures of -17 to -18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.

Over the weekend, meteorologists predict temperatures will plunge even lower in the Moscow region, hitting -25. The Russian capital is also expected to be swept with snow, RIA Novosti reported.

Temperatures have been 7 degrees lower than the norm for five days already, which is considered an anomaly, according to the Meteonovosti.ru website
[link to www.2012thestream.com]

The online news portal of TV5

SEOUL - A prolonged cold spell sent the mercury plummeting throughout South Korea Thursday, with temperatures dropping to their lowest levels in decades, the country's weather agency said.

The South Korean capital city of Seoul recorded a temperature of minus 16.5 Celsius in the morning, the lowest in 27 years since a minus 16.9 C was recorded in 1986, the Korea Meteorological Administration said.

A cold wave watch for Seoul and its surrounding Gyeonggi Province, and a cold wave alert for the central part of the country have been issued, the agency said.

The morning low dropped to minus 24.3 C, the lowest temperature in the country, in Cheorwon, a mountainous town near the inter-Korean border, according to the KMA. Temperatures were recorded at minus 24.1 C in Paju, a border town in Gyeonggi Province, and minus 22.6 C in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province.

In Seoul, 136 injuries from falls were reported as of 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Seoul Metropolitan Fire & Disaster Headquarters.

The low temperatures caused water pipes to freeze and burst across the country, including in Seoul where a total of 108 reports were filed overnight, it added.

The cold spell also hit North Korea, with the morning lows plunging to minus 22 C in some regions, according to the weather office.

Citizens in the North Korean capital city of Pyongyang saw the coldest weather with the morning low recorded at minus 19 C, the KMA said.

The severe cold weather was caused by a frigid continental high-pressure system and the chill from the northwestern region, the agency said.

The wave of exceptionally cold weather will continue and temperatures will remain lower than average all week, with morning lows in Seoul to hover around minus 14 C on Friday morning, it said.


Link


China chills hit 28-year low, trapping ships in ice
By: REUTERS
January 5, 2013 8:31 PM


Temperatures in China have plunged to their lowest in almost three decades, cold enough to freeze coastal waters and trap 1,000 ships in ice, official media said at the weekend.

Since late November the country has shivered at an average of minus 3.8 degrees Celsius, 1.3 degrees colder than the previous average, and the chilliest in 28 years, state news agency

Xinhua said on Saturday, citing the China Meteorological Administration.

Bitter cold has even frozen the sea in Laizhou Bay on the coast of Shandong province in the east, stranding nearly 1,000 ships, the China Daily newspaper reported.

Zheng Dong, chief meteorologist at the Yantai Marine Environment Monitoring Center under the State Oceanic Administration, told the paper that the area under ice in Laizhou Bay was 291 square km this week.

Transport around the country has been severely disrupted.

Over 140 flights from the state capital airport in central Hunan province were delayed, while heavy snowfall forced the closure of some sections of the Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway, the China Daily said.

Temperatures in the northeast fell even further, reaching a 43-year low of minus 15.3 degrees Celsius, about 3.7 degrees below the previous recorded average.

One truck driver in southeastern Jiangxi province, caught in a 5 km (3.1 miles) queue caused by a pileup that happened after heavy snowfall, told China Daily the snow and extreme cold had caught him unawares.

Link
[link to www.wunderground.com]

Z

interestingweather, on 05 January 2013 - 14:15 , said:


Does all stratosphere warming in the winter mean cold weather?

If it propagates downward into the troposphere it will normally initiate
a -AO response (blocking high pressure over the Arctic).This in turn
pushes cold air out of the Arctic to more southerly latitudes.
Not everywhere will be colder it depends where the blocks further south
set up.
Considering where the warming started and what the stratosphere and NWP
synoptic models are showing us it looks a good bet that we will be in
the firing line for some of the bitter Arctic air that is forced out from
the Arctic. [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Wow,look at the 12z ECMWF monster high in Canada on the 240 hour timeframe that drops the artic air to the western half of the U.S. [link to i61.photobucket.com]

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Counting down to the 12z EC ENS. Will be available for viewing in 30mins tops.... I#interestingtimes

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi 3 h

Forecast from US generated model Jan 15-25 for Europe. [link to twitter.com]

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi 5 h


Snow at over 65% still. will take hit next 8 days, then likely roar to over 70% later Jan into Feb [link to twitter.com]

[link to www.meteo.psu.edu]

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Impressive. While not just as cold the EC ENS mean supports the EC Det model for the high pressure to migrate to the NW of the UK by 240hrs.

Saturday, January 5, 2013When Will The Snow Come Back?
By Andrew at 1:07 PM
Snow has dropped off the radar for a while now, and questions are arising- when will the snow be back?

The problem is something called zonal flow. The term zonal flow refers to when the jet stream is displaced north and moves in a monotonous west-to-east line. This monotonous jet stream formation then stirs up above normal temperatures in the East and Central US, and commonly stays until a new pattern comes along. My weekly forecast for the next 7 days is shown above (see Week 1 and Week 2 explanations by clicking here), and I am expecting a zonal flow formation to set up during this time period. This comes as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moves into Phases 5-7, which are best known for being favorable for warm weather. So we can pretty much rule out the next 7 days for any snowstorms across the nation.

In Week 2, we see a significant change occur in the jet stream pattern. High pressure has formed in the Gulf of Alaska, leading to low pressure holding its ground in the West US and the Rocky Mountains. The jet stream accommodates this predicament by pulling the strongest upper level winds south, and then pushing them far north as high pressure builds across the East Coast. This is a good example of the negative phase of the Pacific North American (PNA) index. In the negative phase, low pressure builds over the West US and, as physics dictates, high pressure then forms in the East US to balance out the low pressure. The negative PNA pattern brings about cold weather in the West and warm weather in the East. This pattern is probably the most favorable for the Plains, and that is where I expect to see the next snowstorm.

I anticipate low pressure to enter the Southwest, eject into the Southern Plains and move northeast on a track known as a Great Lakes Cutter. This cutter gets its name for going through the Great Lakes region, hence Great Lakes Cutter. This system should move through Oklahoma to Wisconsin, giving snow to the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Given the high moisture content of the storm system, heavy, flooding rains would be expected across the lower Midwest, Gulf Coast and Ohio Valley regions. I expect this storm to hit between the 11th and the 13th of January.

This negative PNA pattern continues for several days, with the trough responsible for below normal anomalies in the West beginning to slide east very slowly. When the trough breaks free, it should move northeast into Southern Canada, where a meeting with a piece of the polar vortex could be in order. A strong cold front could follow this trough, and that could very well be what kicks off the brutally-cold Late January into February. This would happen around the 20th of January.

So it's looking dry for the next week thanks to the infamous zonal flow pattern. A negative PNA pattern will then emerge in the wake of the zonal flow, and I expect heavy snow to hit the central Plains and Upper Midwest around the middle of the month, with flooding rains in the Lower Midwest and eastern Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Beyond that, things get unusually murky thanks to the incoming Arctic outbreak that will start in the West and bleed East.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Still urge caution but there is a definite shift in the 12Z EC ENS towards a Greenland high as per the 12z ECM model. Need model consistency

Posted 38 minutes ago

I have read that there are two further sudden stratos warmings to come and dates given are 17/18 and 31/1. Will be interesting to see how these dates fare.

BFTP [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

12z ECM ENS mean [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … v 12z ECM Det model [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … - Lot of similarities...

What we can conclude:

- Arctic Oscillation extremely negative. High pressures on pole, 3-core low pressure at lower latitudes;

- Entry cold in Central Europe, which was to begin a few days before and that has nothing to do with the SSW. This entry would be blocked cold in France due to the presence of dorsal Atlantic in our vicinity;

- Newfoundland tending to block despite showing an "average depressionária", if we see that the operation has 980 mbar and the average is above 1000 mbar, it is concluded that there must exist a minority of members with low pressures to pull the average down, although most members predict this block;

- Brutal cold starter the way from Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Gives idea, and this is also borne out by the GFS, the pole dips below by Russia. This event, along with the blocking of Newfoundland will be the key to the second half of January.

Having regard to the products of long term forecasting available (GFS ensembles and ECMWF, and forecast to 32 days of the European model) is quite expected a brutal pattern change to occur between the 15th and 20th of January. The high pressure will settle in the higher latitudes of the Atlantic, probably in Greenland or Iceland. In Central and Eastern Europe should be a strong entry cold, with very low geopotential at 850 hpa and tempearturas below -20 º C.

The question lies in the behavior of the Atlantic between 30 ° and 50 ° of latitude. If you block, with blocking anticyclone to the north and the depressions of Newfoundland, it is inevitable that the Siberian also reach Western Europe. If you do not block, and currently is the most likely, we will have a succession of depressions coming from the Azores / Madeira and leave enough rainfall throughout the country, style 2009/10.

Before that, in the next 3/4 days stay will anticyclonic conditions, it is expected that from Tuesday the anticyclone begins to be worn by troughs and / or cut-offs which give some (little) precipitation, especially north. On the following weekend, it is likely that the predominant anti-cyclonic return, but now with a little more cold, for from day 15/20 terms then the pattern change announced. [link to www.meteopt.com]

Joe Bastardi&#8207;@BigJoeBastardi

ECMWF ensembles Bow to GFS with Alaska ridge situation day 10-15. Rare win for GFS if right

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Here's the ECM ENS mean 850mb temp anom chart for the 14th...Far from mild! [link to twitter.com]

11 minMatthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Stratospheric temps at 10hPa continuing to rise sharply as the #SSW continues to take place - [link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov] …