TORNADO WARNINGS TO TX, LA AND ARK NOW!!!

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTY LATE
TONIGHT AS A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY REACH 32 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY
COLDER. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR COLLIER
COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES,
ESPECIALLY IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS.

HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA -DESOTO-
CHARLOTTE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...
NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...
PUNTA GORDA
1221 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...AROUND 5 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...UPPER 20S FOR THE INTERIOR AND USUALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

* IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS TONIGHT. PLAN TO COVER OR BRING THESE PLANTS INDOORS TO
AVOID THEM BEING DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. ALSO BE SURE TO BRING
PETS INSIDE.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
125 PM PST SUN FEB 17 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR AND LOW ELEVATION SNOW TO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION
FALLING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS. HOWEVER...THE SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 2000 AND
2500 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALLY LOWER SNOW LEVELS POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT THE LOWER FOOTHILLS...HIGHER VALLEYS...AND HIGHER
DESERT SLOPES MAY RECEIVE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL.

more flooding ahead for Miss/Alabama gee....... [link to www.weatherstreet.com]

What do you think about the severe potential for Central Alabama for Wed-Fri?

nasty i think... but lets see how it will go, but all forecasts agree

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Severe weather risk Monday afternoon from Houston to Little Rock. Here's the radar: [link to ow.ly]

716. TropicalAnalystwx1306:30 PM GMT em 18 de Fevereiro de 2013

The mid-level energy of Winter Storm Q is currently southeast of Anchorage, AK. This energy is expected to dig into the Southwest tomorrow and produce heavy snowfall across the West by Wednesday morning (California mountains are expected >1'). The system will really begin to take shape after that point, delivering a major blizzard (>1') for the northern Plains and a threat for severe weather across the South on Thursday.
[link to www.wunderground.com]

Looks like a pretty significant severe weather event for parts of Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST
WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF A SPLIT UPPER FLOW CURVING INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT CONCERNING THE
FIRST IMPULSE WITHIN THIS REGIME...A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER UP TO 1.5 INCHES AND MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AT LEAST IN A CORRIDOR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERSPREAD BY DIFLUENT UPPER
FLOW...JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG THE TRACK OF A
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE... WHERE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL
EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND VERTICAL SHEAR TO
SUPPORT SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONAL ON THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...THIS MAY INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE MAY PROGRESS
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES IS TOO LARGE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO ASCERTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 02/18/2013

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM-WRF 60-hrs out beginning to show accumulations in E. OK of nearly a foot thru Wednesday w/next storm. [link to twitter.com]

13 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Canadian model combines Great Lakes low into weak impulse over Maine Wednesday into a snow maker [link to twitter.com]

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.
THE GREATEST WINTRY THREAT ELSEWHERE IS FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
MORNING IF PRECIPITATION CAN ARRIVE BEFORE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

well, it's out there now... WINTER STORM Q [link to i.imwx.com] [link to i.imwx.com] [link to i.imwx.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Setup has the potential to bring a significant severe weather outbreak. Where? Details: [link to ow.ly]

Some Cells Moving Across the TX /LA border [link to radar.weather.gov]

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

Our first severe t'storm warning of the day is in eastern OK. Radar: [link to wxch.nl] Forecast: [link to wxch.nl]

First tornado warning of the day in Texas.

WFUS54 KHGX 181931
TORHGX
TXC339-407-471-182000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0001.130218T1931Z-130218T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
131 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 126 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9517 3035 9544 3042 9552 3062 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 232DEG 7KT 3043 9545

$$

The Weather Channel‏@weatherchannel

Tornado warnings just north of Houston thru 2pm: [link to wxch.nl] and 2:15pm CST: [link to wxch.nl] #txwx

Eric Fisher‏@EricFisherTWC

Weather pattern is looking very deja vu over the next 2-3 weeks. Extremely similar storm tracks, Plains to the Lakes over and over.

Well, March 1 "officially" begins our tornado season here in Dixie Alley, but they can and have been happening anytime of the year! Looks like an active period...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 200 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CUT AND SHOOT...OR 8 MILES EAST OF CONROE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...CUT AND SHOOT AND NORTH CLEVELAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182008Z - 182115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29259490 28939552 29419645 30279651 31289526 31669469
32359394 32309322 31779292 30949307 29929360 29259490 [link to www.spc.noaa.gov]

Think SPC will move the slight risk east to include Alabama overnight?

i think so, it's possible