Schwassmann-Wachmann 73P; Here's what I learned about its trajectory

What occured for extraterrestrials, as I suspect it, to transform in 1995 a comet into a weapon of massive super destruction? 1994 is the year that saw an upsurge of interest in the UFO Roswell crash, but also, to choke this, there was a hoaxed film of an alien autopsy; importantly, the United States of America decides behind the scenes to implement the National Missile Defense, i.e. the Star Wars program! This program cannot objectively be intended for a terrestrial potential enemy as claimed by the government. The enemy was extraterrestrial!


We see here that the government secrecy policy combined with the aggressive behavior of the military were enough for some extraterrestrials to prepare a preemptive shot at the Earth. In the next few days, we are precisely facing important strategic decisions for the fate of the world.


Consequently, vis-a-vis the nuclear armada created by humanity, vis-a-vis the laser program of directed energy weapons, certain ‘star visitors’ have taken "convincing" measures and decided on the use of a first public warning for MAY 25, 2006, a few weeks before the launching of the nuclear offensive against Iran, involving an escalating potential for planetary atomic war which, I point out it, would destroy whole or part of the planes of existence, invisible in our eyes, where the ‘star visitors’ live.

"It is a little like a bullet train that overtakes us as we travel parallel to it on the road. Our ways will cross, but not having the same speed, the train will be far in front of us at the time when we get to the level crossing."

In fact it's more like the train is on an elevated railway which crosses over a bridge above the road we're driving on. There isn't even a level crossing where we COULD meet it.

Let's think about this more calmly and logically for a minute. The primary orbit of this comet takes it past the Earth at a distance of about 6 million miles, so in order for anything from the break-up to reach us it'll have to have moved 6 million miles away from the main body (or bodies) since its separation.

Now, in order to change the orbit of one of these pieces it has to be subjected to a force, and this would be the same force that's causing the break-up of the comet - most likely outgassing and expanding/sublimating ices. The speed at which any piece moves away is going to be inversely proportional to its mass (basic physics) so the larger a fragment, the slower it'll be moving relative to the comet. The larger the fragment the less distance it'll move from the main orbit in a given time period.

The conclusion, which has already been stated many times, is that although we might (just might) get a few meteors from dust grains, we're not going to get anything large hitting us.

British Astronomical Association
Comet Section
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snip
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Apr 28 Hua Su and John Sachs report a Kreutz comet in real time C3 images
Apr 28 Sunskirting asteroid 2006 HY51 discovered
Apr 28 Update
"

[link to www.ast.cam.ac.uk]

snip
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27 April 2006
EARTH-GRAZING COMET CONTINUES ITS BREAKUP
"
In addition to ongoing ground-based visual observations, the Hubble Space Telescope and the Spitzer infrared space telescope are continuing to monitor the comet. The Arecibo and Goldstone planetary radars will begin their observations on April 30.

[link to www.spaceguarduk.com]

2006 April 28

* First reports of naked-eye sightings of component C of comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann have been received. It has to be stressed that the visibility and estimated brightness of a comet so close to earth and with such a large and faint coma is strongly dependent on sky background and instrumentation. Differences up to several magnitudes in brightness estimations are easily possible. Every observer is strongly encouraged to use the smallest possible instrument or the naked eye for serious brightness estimations as well as the darkest observing location. As paradox as it might sound: A comet visible to the naked eye might be seen drastically smaller or even not at all with a large telescope. (Comets Mailing List)

[link to www.fg-kometen.de]

on CNN
[link to www.cnn.com]

Hubble captures the shattering of a comet

Dhu!!!

updated photos here of fragments B, G and C (taken April 27, 2006)

[link to www.lpl.arizona.edu]

written earlier in 2006 (notice the components of comet 73p are at least one day apart) so, on the simulator, keep that in mind

this source says that Fragment E will be the closest to earth

[link to www.ast.cam.ac.uk]
quote:
In August 1979, Michael Candy reported the discovery of a comet on a plate taken by J Johnston and M Buhagiar while searching for minor planets; this had the motion expected for 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann, but with perihelion 34 days later than in a prediction by Brian Marsden. Missed again at the next return, it has been seen at the last three returns. At the 1995 return the comet underwent a major outburst near perihelion, reaching 5m when it was only expected to be 12m. Subsequently four components were observed, though calculations by Sekanina suggested that the fragmentation occurred after the outburst. Three fragments were recovered in 2001, but only a few visual observations were reported as the comet was poorly placed and the absolute magnitude had clearly faded a little from the previous return. The components have now separated in the date of perihelion by roughly a day.

At closest approach the fragments will be racing across the sky at around 4.5° a day, though they are separated by around ten degrees from each other. Their exact paths across the sky will only be determined after recovery due to uncertainties in the non-gravitational parameters for each fragment and the extremely close approach. The main fragment (C) is currently predicted to pass at 0.073 AU on May 13.22 when it is in Vulpecula. The other fragments (B and E) will follow it, approach closer and be further north in the sky (May 14.60, 0.065 AU; May 17.32, 0.052 AU); the pass of fragment E will replace the 1930 pass as the 9th closest cometary encounter and the other two will be 12th and 14th closest. After the encounter they rapidly head south and will be difficult to observe a week later.



With the orbit approaching so closely to the Earth, an associated meteor shower might be expected, and the comet has been linked to the Tau Herculid shower, though the radiant now lies in the Bootes - Serpens region. Strong activity was reported in 1930 by a lone Japanese observer, but little has been seen since then. It is likely that any future activity would be in the form of a short-lived outburst, confined to years when the comet is at perihelion.

according to the quote above, the pre break up parameters are invalid after the break up
each time the fragments break up, a new trajectory must be "figured"

so, has this been done since B and G fragments broke up?

I want you to really think about this.

What is the chance a bible code could come up with a code that predicts something will happen? Low, right? Although someone has done it with Moby Dick in the past.

Now what is the chance that this code could predict something and at the same time a meteorite breaks apart and is making an extremely close approach durring that exact timeframe?

If you just think about it, you will realise the odds are extremely low, and we will most likely have 3 impacts on May 5th.

codes are another form of divination
which is forbidden by God

''Your certainty makes you appear as a total fool...''

he's playing the odds!

He knows it's highly unlikely we'll get hit, and he's very probably right! (Now I'M doing it! )

What if he/she's wrong though, eh?

we really don't care what a paid debunker has to say
because they don't get paid to tell the truth

''is that although we might (just might) get a few meteors from dust grains, we're not going to get anything large hitting us.''

Mole, IF a few grains of dust will hit us, what is preventing slightly/much larger objects hitting us?

As I see it, there IS a chance, remote as it is, that something more substantial than dust will hit us. What do you think?

If you say dust will hit(just might), surely there's a remote chance of something bigger?

what's the point of this NOT being pinned BTW? It's always up there!

"With the orbit approaching so closely to the Earth, an associated meteor shower might be expected"

that is a quote from a scientific site, with any meteor shower comes meteorites

can anyone tell me what that means?

Q: Several questions are about a report that a comet will collide with Earth May 25 and the catastrophic results. In short, will this happen?

MATTHEW: We know of this report, too, and assure you—again with thanks to your space family’s technology—that this will not happen. For many years any celestial body that could have endangered Earth through continuing either on its natural path or deliberate direction by off-planet darkness, has been deflected. Although reports of predicted or potential global catastrophes such as this kind of collision would cause may be disseminated by persons wishing only to alert others, this kind of information is originated by darkly-influenced minds purely to cause fear.

It tells me they haven't got a clue what's going to happen!

Meteorite Myths
There are certain myths surrounding meteorites
and many persist despite reasonable scientific
evidence otherwise. Myths persist because the
true nature and associated phenomena of
meteorites are not understood by the general
public. Unfortunately, the main source of
knowledge concerning meteorites seems to
be from inaccurate movies and a lack of
scientific knowledge in general.

[link to imca.repetti.net]

"Mole, IF a few grains of dust will hit us, what is preventing slightly/much larger objects hitting us?"

The distance any "fragment" - from a microscopic grain of dust to a house-sized boulder - can move from the comet's original orbit is determined by its velocity and the time it's been travelling. The velocity in turn is determined by the force applied to it and its mass.

Larger pieces have more mass and therefore will have lower velocities (for similar forces) - and therefore will spread less from the original orbit. Remember we're talking about large pieces travelling over 6 million miles, which would require very large forces to be applied, and the outgassing just isn't going to supply enough energy to do that.


"As I see it, there IS a chance, remote as it is, that something more substantial than dust will hit us. What do you think?

If you say dust will hit(just might), surely there's a remote chance of something bigger?"

If you want to consider vanishingly small chances, then yes, I will have to say that there's a non-zero probability that some large piece of this comet could have broken off in the past and could now be about to impact the Earth. However the probability of this is going to be equivalent to the probability of impact by just about any piece of space rubble of the same size. In other words, there's a chance we'll get hit by a substantial meteorite at some point in time, and the presence of this disintegrating comet doesn't really change it in any significant way.


"with any meteor shower comes meteorites"

Not necessarily. Most showers are essentially just dust clouds, and nearly all meteorites are "sporadics".

if you find a meteorite, you can sell it for big bucks

with your debunking skills in high gear

where do any meteorites come from? if not from passing comets?

[link to www.exodus2006.com]

bible codes are divination

Bible codes are not science.
Besides, these don't really refer to this comet or time period specifically.

To understand what lies ahead, we should focus more on facts about this monster. I find it interesting that the CNN article shows the break up of frag B, but claims that it is the whole comet. Most of the public is unaware of how many fragments there are and how much they are fragmenting.
Actually, most of the public is entirely unaware of the comet.

[link to www.serve.com]

Observing Tau Herculids

The duration of this shower extends from May 19 to June 19. Maximum occurs on June 9, from an average radiant of RA=236 deg, DECL=+41 deg, with the average magnitude then being about 4.

History

The discovery of this meteor shower occurred as a result of the discovery of its parent comet. The latter discovery occurred on May 2, 1930, when plates exposed by A. Schwassmann and A. A. Wachmann (Hamburg Observatory), during a regular minor planet survey, revealed the diffuse image of a comet. The saga of the Tau Herculids unfolded a short time later at Kwasan Observatory (Kyoto, Japan).

Observations of Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 were made daily at Kyoto, and, after a few positions had been obtained, Watanabe computed a preliminary parabolic orbit. From this orbit, Shibata deduced a radiant point and predicted a shower would soon occur.

Beginning on the night of May 21, several Japanese observers, most of whom were located at Kwasan Observatory, began watching the skies for the predicted shower. Searches were fruitless until May 24, when a careful watch around Boötes revealed a stationary meteor at RA=230 deg, DECL=+48 deg. The next evening, several more meteors were seen radiating from a point slightly less than a degree east of the previous night's position.

Observations of this shower ceased for a short time following May 25, since Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 had attained naked-eye visibility at the end of May, but by June 3 the Tau Herculids were again under scrutiny and were noted coming from a radiant of RA=232 deg, DECL=+46 deg. Further observations were made on the 6th and 7th as the radiant continued its southeastward trek, but the fairly weak activity observed up to this point suddenly changed on June 9, when 59 meteors (most of which were described as fainter than 4th magnitude) were detected in one hour. Rates were slightly higher on the next evening when 36 meteors were seen in 30 minutes. On the former date, short-trailed meteors were used to determine the radiant position as RA=236.25 deg, DECL=+41.5 deg. Weak displays had again returned when observations resumed on June 12 and 13, and the shower was last detected on June 19, from a radiant of RA=244.5 deg, DECL=+39 deg.

It should be noted that by the first days of June the prediction of a possible strong meteor shower had been published in newspapers around the world, but Kaname Nakamura was the only observer to note a strong display. Even Issei Yamamoto, director of the Kwasan Observatory, noted that "Mr. Nakamura was practically the only observer" among staff members of the observatory. However, Yamamoto did point out that a radiant position of RA=237.5 deg, DECL=+41 deg had been determined by K. Siomi (Hukutiyama, Japan) on the night of June 12-13. Thus, the shower seems to have been confirmed. Unsuccessful, however, were the meteor section members of the British Astronomical Association. They noted that bright moonlight interfered with their observations on June 5, 7 and 9, so that no display of any kind was noted. From this data it seems the Tau Herculids possess a very sharply defined maximum, with meteors being predominantly faint.

Attempts to locate past appearances of this shower have revealed few possibilities. Most promising, however, are a series of radiants determined by John Koep and Philip Trudelle (both of Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin) between May 22 and June 5, 1916. The radiants are as follows: May 22.1, RA=224.5 deg, DECL=+25.3 deg (Koep), May 27.18, RA=230.3 deg, DECL=+27.4 deg (Trudelle), May 27.75, RA=231.0 deg, DECL=+27.5 deg (Koep), May 28.17, RA=232.1 deg, DECL=+26.8 deg (Trudelle), May 30.64, RA=232.7 deg, DECL=+28 deg (Koep), June 4.2, RA=234.4 deg, DECL=+27.5 deg (Koep), and June 5.18, RA=235.8 deg, DECL=+25.6 deg (Trudelle).

Admittedly, the declination is nearly 20 deg too far south in May and about 10 deg too far south in June, however, as will be shown in the "Orbit" section below, the shower's orbit is closer to the Tau Herculids.

The only other pre-1930 detection of this shower came during June 3-7, 1918, when William F. Denning detected 4 very slow "Theta Coronids" from a radiant of RA=230 deg, DECL=+34 deg.

Following the 1930 shower, attempts at further observations proved fruitless. J. P. M. Prentice (Stowmarket, England) watched on May 20, 22, 23 and 24, 1931. His total observing time amounted to 11 hours and 20 minutes, but no activity was noted. Stars to magnitude 6 were visible some of the time. Additional attempts to reobserve this shower---usually during the years of the comet's predicted perihelions---occurred on several occasions during the 20 years following 1931, but no traces of the shower were ever noted. However, using photography during the early 1950's, the Harvard Meteor Project revealed the stream to still be producing meteors.

The first detection of the photographic Tau Herculid meteors among the 1950's data was made by Richard B. Southworth and Gerald S. Hawkins in 1963. They detected just two meteors, but the similarity of the derived orbit to Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 was close. A further look at possible photographic meteors associated with this comet occurred in 1971, when Bertil-Anders Lindblad (Lund Observatory, Sweden) identified 14 meteors from the Harvard Meteor Project. The average orbit "suggests good agreement in all orbital elements, and the proposed comet-meteor relation may now be considered very probable."

The last extensive search for meteors of this stream came in 1974, following a prediction by K. Kono. With Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 coming toward a mid-March 1974 perihelion, Kono predicted that a shower might occur on June 1.0 from RA=146 deg, DECL=+54 deg (the comet's orbit having underwent some changes since its 1930 apparition). Harold Povenmire noted that observations for 2 hours on June 1 by members of the Florida Fireball Network revealed only one meteor from the radiant, though moonlight was interfering.

Other recent observations of this shower continue to show extremely weak activity:

1976---During 19 hours and 20 minutes of observing during June 1 to 25, Bert Matous (Grandview, Missouri) saw only 4 Tau Herculids.
1977---John West (Bryan, Texas) saw 2 Tau Herculids in 4 hours on May 26 and 28, C. Smith (Bryan, Texas) saw 3 in 3 hours. Matous saw 17 in 12 hours 30 minutes during June 6-11, while Norman McLeod (Florida) recorded 5 in 15 hours and 9 minutes during May 21/22-June 11/12.
1979---F. Roy (Pte. Gatineau, Quebec, Canada) saw 3 meteors in 2 hours 15 minutes on June 3/4. (Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 was recovered for the first time since 1930, and passed perihelion on September 2.)
1982---West saw 4 meteors in 4 hours on May 22/23 and 27/28, while M. Zalcik (Edmonton, Alberta, Canada) observed 2 in 3 hours on May 23/24.
1984---David Swann (Dallas, Texas) saw no meteors during 2 hours on May 29/30, one during 2 hours on May 31/June 1 and one during 1 hour 30 minutes on June 1/2. Bill Katz (Willowdale, Ontario, Canada) observed during 6 hours on June 3/4. Tau Herculids were noted each hour with the highest hourly rate being six and the lowest being two. This marked some of the highest rates in recent years. (The comet was approaching a January 11, 1985, perihelion.)

From an examination of the apparent observations of this comet, it seems that a few meteors have managed to venture to the opposite end of the comet's orbit, however, this still amounts to less than one meteor per hour near maximum. On the other hand, it seems activity is still strongest during years when the comet is near perihelion. Since the meteor stream is probably fairly young, it may be possible that a sharply defined and fairly strong maximum might occur during years the comet reaches perihelion, as in 1930 and 1984. The 1916 activity came roughly two years after a perihelion passage of Schwassmann-Wachmann 3.

Orbit

Orbit "A" represents an elliptical orbit computed from Nakamura's positions of 1930, using the semimajor axis of Schwassmann-Wachmann 3. Orbit "B" represents the orbit obtained from 11 photographic meteors collected from papers published by McCrosky and A. Posen in 1961, Jacchia and F. L. Whipple in 1961, and Babadzhanov in 1963. Also listed is orbit for comet Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 in 1930.

76030 - you say impact on May 5th

where did that date come from

that is next week, and up until now I have only heard May 12th and May 25th

thanks

Let the games Begin..!!

Source of loud "booms" in Port Angeles still a mystery..

April 28th, 2006 - 11:05am

(Port Angeles) -- A series of explosions that rocked most of the Port Angeles area remains a mystery. Police dispatchers received calls from all around the area last night about 11:30 reporting the series of "booms". But police have been unable to uncover what may have caused the noises. Callers to Newsradio 1450 KONP reported a series of five explosions that shook their houses. One caller reported her glass sliding door shattered. No earthquake activity was reported overnight in the Port Angeles area.

[link to www.konp.com]

"with your debunking skills in high gear"

You can call it debunking, I call it taking a scientific approach.

"where do any meteorites come from? if not from passing comets?"

Like I said, most of them are sporadics - i.e. just random space junk which happens to get too close to our good ole home planet...

QUOTE:
"with your debunking skills in high gear"



The predicted near misses by the known fragments of comet 73P in May 2006

[link to www.exodus2006.com]

Fragment B - May 15th
Fragment C - May 12th
Fragment E - May 16th
Fragment G - May 15th
Fragment H - May 15th
Fragment J - May 15th
Fragment K - May 16th
Fragment L - May 15th
Fragment M - May 15th
Fragment N - May 14th
Fragment P - May 14th
Fragment Q - May 14th
Fragment R - May 15th


Fragment S - May 25th

This one comes closest.

Eric Julien predicts an impact into the sea this day.

Bible codes for the 23rd May:
The 23rd of May 2006, He judged!
God is here.
Fragment T - May 16th
Fragment U - May 14th
Fragment V - May 14th
Fragment W - May 19th


Fragment X - May 30th

Now updated - see below

3, 039,655 miles

(4,891,850 Km)
Fragment X updated - 16th May
Fragment Y - May 10th
Fragment Z - May 15th
Fragment AA - May 17th
Fragment AB - May 16th
Fragment AC - May 16th
Fragment AD - May 16th
Fragment AE - May 15th
Fragment AF - May 12th
Fragment AG - May 16th
Fragment AH - May 16th
Fragment AI - May 15th
Fragment AJ - May 15th
Fragment - May 15th
Fragment AL - May 15th
Fragment AM - May 14th
Fragment AO - May 15th
Fragment AP - May 12th