Schwassmann-Wachmann 73P; Here's what I learned about its trajectory | |
Unsure(c) User ID: 15255 United Kingdom 04/25/2006 07:34 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good description ! Are you indicating that the fragments might be moving slower than the main body and therefore will rear end us or be in our path when we move into that bit of space ?? Also from what you calculate what side of the earth will be most at risk of any rougue pieces and what are we talking about ? baseballs or houses ?? Unsure(c) - Why i am uncertain - that's for sure !!! |
ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 07:50 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Continuing, If this comet was in one piece, we would have to conjer up all the GLP teotwawki spirit we could in order to get that comet to veer off its course and strike us. But is not in one piece, it has broken apart. Instead of a rifling effect of a .22 bullet, it has become the scatter-shot as though fired from a shotgun. Remembering the "spread pattern" produced by a shotgun (remembering the Chaney mishap on the ranch in Texas), the farther it gets from the barrel of the gun, the wider the spread pattern. Could we get hit by one of fragments? How about the moon? more in a moment... |
ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 07:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Unsure, Exactly. If any fragment is lagging behind, impact could occur (moon or Earth). If we expand the analogy above to being planes flying in the air, with long banners attached at the tail, then it becomes well within the realm of reason that the banner attached to the passing plane would slap us before it got clear of us. |
Unsure(c) User ID: 15255 United Kingdom 04/25/2006 07:57 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Science what size are we talking about ? As i asked is it baseballs or houses ? Also what do you suppose the fragments are made of, will these be able to get past earths atmosphere ? Also by striking the moon surely it would require a massive strike to have any effect on lunar orbit ?? Unsure(c) - Why i am uncertain - that's for sure !!! |
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ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 08:26 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Unsure, My Starry Night program lists 73P as being 20km in diameter. As far as striking the Earth or the moon, let's forget for a moment "why" the comet has fragmented and "why" the comet fragments have seperated from each other a bit. I'll come back to that once I have studied it a bit more. For now, we know we are looking at several objects coming in with a wider footprint than a single 20 km object. In other words, the path of destruction is wider for anything in its way. With respect to the timing of the passage, here's what I derived from the software visually. As 73P moves to overtake the Earth, it gets even with, and slightly above, on May 5. At that time the difference between the two bodies is about 0.1 au. The moon is also moving in a counter-clockwise motion around the Earth, and at this time the moon is moving up in between the Earth and 73P. Keeping with the race-car analogy, on May 5 you could look out your right window and you would see 73P along side but a bit higher. Coming up quickly in between would be the moon. By May 12, the moon is basically right outside your right window. This is also the time when the moon will be full, since the sun is always out your left window (remember we are on a circular racetrack representing the Earth's orbit). To add to this, it just so happens that Jupiter is right out your right window as well...way out there, but basically in line. So what I am outlining is a line-up of the sun, Earth, moon, and Jupiter. By May 12-13, 73P has moved ahead a bit and is directly in front of you but a little higher, in what appears to be a successful move to pass you out. On May 13, 73P is crossing the orbital path of the Earth but slightly higher...so in reality, 73P never actually crosses a point where Earth will travel. On that day the distance between 73P and Earth is 0.079 au. More to follow... |
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ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 08:31 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Continuing, On May 24, comet 73P has finally reached the Earth's orbital plane. The point where it would "Disappear into the ground" is farther ahead and off to the left. The distance between Earth and 73P is .13 au. With respect to the moon, the moon is orbiting the Earth counter-clockwise. From May 5 through May 20, the moon is outside the Earth's orbit. Per the analogy, it moves from behind the back bumper, up to the right side, and crosses the front bumper from right to left during this timeframe. It is only logical to assume then, if some kind of "lagging fragment" is going to cause trouble, it would be more dangerous for the moon, since the moon is a little closer to 73P's path. Although it is only .002 au away from the Earth, it could act in a fashion similar to a "Block" in a game of American football. So, how high is 73P when it is out in front of the Earth? Will we have to "Duck" to get under the path of the comet's many fragments? Let me look... |
Halcyon Dayz User ID: 84549 Netherlands 04/25/2006 08:44 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If it was thermal stress, the pieces will be a lot closer together then when it was caused by something more violent (collision). The further out, the smaller the fragments, in either scenario. 1 AU = 150,000,000 km. Reaching for the sky makes you taller. Hi! My name is Halcyon Dayz and I'm addicted to morans. |
ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 09:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Continuing, From the viewpoint of the center of the sun, looking out directly at Earth, 73P is 5 degrees above Earth's orbital plane on May 4. It takes 20 days for the comet to move down to Earth's orbital plane, crossing it on May 24. So, during this timeframe 73P moving down towards the Earth's orbital plane at about .25 degrees per day (5 divided by 20). Using the distance to Earth as a constant (1 au), 5 degrees of seperation from the vantage point of the sun equates to a distance of 0.087156 au. The "Drop per day," then, is 0.004363 au per day. |
Dee User ID: 536 United States 04/25/2006 09:11 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Rick Wiles had some words to say about this near trajectory last night. Thank you for the great analogy Science Only.. [link to www.trunews.com] |
ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 09:20 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Using Halycon Dayz information above, on or about May 4, 73P is about 13 million kilometers "above" the Earth as seen from the vantage point of the center of the sun...dropping at about 654,500 kilometers per day. On May 13, about the time the comet crosses to the inside of Earth's orbit (directly in front of our race car, the elevation of the comet will be roughly 7 million kilometers above the Earth. The distance seperating the Earth and 73P at that time will be roughly 12 million kilometers. ****----****----****----**** Combining all the information above, if there are pieces of this comet that are trailing, then the most dangerous pieces will be those that are farther behind, below, and to the right of the comet's published path. If a fragment is not too far behind, then it is going to have to be a fairly good amount below the published path, or a fair way to the right. If a fragment was going to hit the Earth or moon, then: If the fragment is not too far behind, but much lower, impact would occur in the first half of May. If the fragment is not too far behind, but much to the right, then impact would occur in the second half of May. If the fragment is a good ways back, but more aligned with the normal path of the comet, then impact would occur between the middle of May and the middle of June. So, now we can look at the distribution of the fragments to see if any of the above scenarios are worth studying. Does anyone know anything about the distribution of the fragments? |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 74098 Colombia 04/25/2006 10:02 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, and with Earth's ever increasing gravitational pull (like a bowling ball spinning in molasses constantly gathering more material as one scientist put it) It will be interesting to see if Earth get's skinned during this freak encounter. They can't even keep the space station in proper orbit because Earth is constantly reeling it in. And losing the moon an inch a year with it's eliptical orbit? I don't think so. More like it will gain 2 inches a year on the low side. Smacko! |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 75343 Guatemala 04/25/2006 10:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Your search string '73P' matched the following 38 records: Please select from the list below. [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 [1995] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-B [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-C [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-E [2001] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-G [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-H [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-J [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-K [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-L [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-M [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-N [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-P [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-Q [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-R [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-S [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-T [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-U [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-V [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-W [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-X [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-Y [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-Z [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AA [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AB [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AC [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AD [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AE [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AF [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AG [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AH [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AI [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AJ [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AK [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AL [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AM [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AN [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AO [2006] Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3-AP [2006] |
ScienceOnly (OP) User ID: 84962 United States 04/25/2006 10:03 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
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Mrdjs7 User ID: 79015 United States 04/25/2006 10:05 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Wouldn't it be nice if it hit the white house when all "Relevent" people are there? Sorry, off topic a bit. I can dream. Thanks for the thread! Informative! At least someone is keep track of this! .........This Space For Rent......... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 84505 United States 04/25/2006 10:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SO, did you factor in the near earth asteroid 2006 GY2 [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] closest approach to earth on: May 16 6.7 Lunar distances |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 85435 United States 04/25/2006 10:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You can get the general idea of what the OP is saying here [link to neo.jpl.nasa.gov] Choose the comet Zoom all the way in Center Comet/Asteroid |
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