Calculation for the amount of expected 6+ and 7+ for November and December.
Results will be compiled 1st of January 2018.
51 days left of 2017.
Average amount of 6+ during the last 10years: 149,1.
Minimum amount of 6+ during the last 10years: 124.
Totals as of November 2017: 84.
This means we should have
1,27 6+ PER DAY to get to average.
Or 0,78 PER DAY to catch up the lowest amount.
Average amount of 7+ during the last 10years: 17,2
Minimum amount of 7+ during the last 10years: 12
Totals as of November 2017: 5
This thus means we should have anywhere from 7-12 7+ to catch up.
Which means roughly ONE EVERY WEEK.
Downgrading does not affect the big picture, what matters is 2017 and the lack of quakes.
It's a logical fallacy to think only 2017 quakes would have been downgraded.
See you in 2018. Happy holidays beforehand! :)
-Finland