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Odds of fuel rod removal disaster

 
Unixlike
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User ID: 43480752
United States
10/30/2013 09:50 PM
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Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
POLL: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
 almost no chance of failure
 10% or less that the rods will burn
 10-25%
 25-50%
 50-75%
 Guaranteed DOOM! Rods will burn. We die.
 Blank (View Results) 



I've not really been as doomish about Fuku as some others. Sure, the ongoing radiation release has been huge and there is/will be an impact. But it is in my opinion not a life changing event for most of us.

That said, I absolutely believe that if TEPCO screws up this fuel rod removal and a thousand rods catch fire then all bets are off. Doom is on. There is no way to deny the calamity of such an event. The debate will be whether the death toll will be in the hundreds of millions or in the billions.

What kind of odds are we facing that TEPCO screws up and burns the rods? What say you?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 46821329
Canada
10/30/2013 09:53 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
Will they attempt removal on 11th day of the 11th month, because well we know that those numbers spell disaster traditionally.
pmb1

User ID: 48201619
United States
10/30/2013 09:57 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
Will they attempt removal on 11th day of the 11th month, because well we know that those numbers spell disaster traditionally.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46821329


In that case then lets hope they don't do it on that day. I have a bad feeling things will get a lot worse before they ever get better.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 49171216
Croatia
10/30/2013 10:00 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
It's false flag event ..

They know already what will happen ..
Saddletramp

User ID: 726900
Puerto Rico
10/30/2013 10:02 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
GLP Effect...it's all good.
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."

"We don't rent pigs!"
Unixlike  (OP)

User ID: 43480752
United States
10/30/2013 10:04 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
I love those who vote 100% doom. You have to admire their peerless enthusiasm and unfaltering determination.
my sorces say
User ID: 46265441
United States
10/30/2013 10:05 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
They melted last week.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34982889
United States
10/30/2013 10:11 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
I said less than 10%, but my real guess is less than 1%. That's still not the same as "safe," considering the consequences.
digitalFoo

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United States
10/30/2013 10:11 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
mij21
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User ID: 49196422
United Kingdom
10/30/2013 10:13 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
The worst has already happened according to the NRC FOIA Documents pertaining to fukushima back in 2011.

The damage to the Fukushima Daiichi facility was much greater and the ability to respond was much more difficult than we have been led to believe. There is a reference to a 46 foot tsunami, the height of which was measured by TEPCO on the walls of Unit’s 1 and 2. There is evidence SFP #4 went dry and had a ‘zirc fire’.
[link to hatrickpenry.files.wordpress.com]

SNIP.

The trick is to convince the American public, and indeed the world, that the worst-of-the-worst has not already happened at Fukushima. Even if that means a media campaign of fear-mongering based around a fantasy doomsday scenario involving the collapse of Unit 4 and its spent fuel pool. Interestingly enough, all the alternative and mainstream media outlets that are promoting this bogus Unit 4 doomsday scenario are the same ones who have chosen not to report on the Nuclear Regulatory Agency’s Freedom of Information Act documents pertaining to Fukushima. These documents tell the true story of Fukushima: the multi-agency cover-up that downplayed and concealed the radioactive plume and fallout, the reality of a prolonged station blackout that produced three ‘China Syndrome’ meltdowns, and the Unit 4 spent fuel pool zirconium fire and subsequent ‘melt on the floor’ of the fuel rods.

The sad reality is that the effects of a nuclear plant meltdown or spent fuel pool fire can be so sudden and so severe that the possibility exists that no safety precautions can be taken quickly enough to avoid the consequences completely. In the case of the Fukushima catastrophe, it took about a week to produce a measurable plume that traveled south down the coast and then swept inland across Tokyo. These plumes were laden with aerosolized plutonium. I ask you: how do you evacuate Tokyo in less than a week? How will we evacuate New York if Indian Point has an accident and produces a plume? Where do you relocate a city of millions of people?

So you see, the reality of the potential of a meltdown or meltdowns is so horrific, it must be hidden from the public at all costs. And when a meltdown does occur, the truth of its severity and its effects must also be hidden from the public at all costs. Can you imagine what it would have been like if TEPCO, the Government of Japan, the NRC and the White House had been up front and 100% honest about the disaster from the start? What would have happened if officials announced that 1) a plutonium laden plume was drifting towards Tokyo and 2) multiple plumes and fallout were heading across the Pacific towards the West Coast of the US? What would have happened if officials were up front and honest about the triple ‘China Syndrome’ and Unit 4 ‘melt on the floor’ and its effects? No matter how you slice it, it would be ugly, very ugly.

It seems to me that when a country desires both national security and nuclear power at the same time, it desires the impossible. Furthermore, how can one have a rational discussion about national security if one does not include a frank, open discussion about the decommissioning of all nuclear plants? Which is a greater threat to the American public, Iran’s nuclear program or our own nuclear program? Why would Iran build a nuclear bomb to use against the US when we have hundreds of stationary bombs, in the form of reactors and fuel pools, already positioned throughout the country, with incredible payloads far beyond the capacity of any bomb or missile? Think of the possibilities: terrorist attack, sabotage, earthquake, tsunami, earthquake AND tsunami, flooding from a broken dam upriver, or even the old-fashioned accident that aging reactors are bound to have from time to time…why do we leave ourselves so vulnerable?

About the Fukushima Unit 4 Spent Fuel Pool:

The evidence, from the NRC FOIA documents pertaining to Fukushima, has led me to believe that:

1) The March 11th, 2011 earthquake caused immediate structural damage to the Unit 4 building. Spent fuel pool coolant began to drain out through a crack or cracks that were a result of the earthquake.

2) There was an H2 explosion and a wall or walls of the SFP #4 were ‘blown out’.

3) On March 15th 2011, the hot offload of fuel experienced a zirconium cladding fire and subsequent meltdown to the floor of the spent fuel pool. According to the IAEA, SFP #4 was on fire and emitting radiation directly to the atmosphere for at least 9 hours and 10 minutes before TEPCO claimed it was extinguished.

4) 75% or more of the radiation contained in SFP #4 may have been released into the atmosphere. Modeling was done on a 100% release.

5) Any fuel rods recovered (official numbers vary on what the inventory was) will be ones that were unused and ‘cool’…probably less than 25% of inventory. It is possible that all fuel rods were affected and none will be salvageable.

The Evidence:

To be clear: I cannot prove that the spent fuel pool of Unit 4 has been destroyed or damaged. Nor can the nuclear apologists prove that the pool is full of water and the fuel rods are intact. It should be noted that those who claim that the damage to SFP 4 was minimal and that the rods will be recovered have only their rhetoric to back them up. They offer no proof. YouTube videos alleging to be of the Unit 4 spent fuel pool could be any spent fuel pool in the world. Is it not evidence in and of itself that they have not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that their claims are true? How hard would it be to hold a current newspaper in front of a video camera and then make an inspection of Units 1-4 for the world to see? Do you believe TEPCO? Do you believe the NRC? Do you believe the Government of Japan or our own government? All of these entities have extensive track records of deception and dishonesty and they all have reason to hide the truth, especially in the case of the Fukushima disaster.
[link to hatrickpenryunbound.com]
Dangerwalt

User ID: 48506843
Brazil
10/30/2013 10:16 PM

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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
They melted last week.
 Quoting: my sorces say 46265441


damned
Just one any....

The first symptom of stupidity is to think that we already know everything...

:hollowichigo:
Sungaze_At_Dawn

User ID: 1744109
Canada
10/30/2013 10:19 PM

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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
I'm going blank with this ,becaues I know that they use those dates, and what this could be, BUT, I am holding light and envisioning that not only does it go well, BUT, a bunch of people in the nuclear industry start to go, why are we doing this, why don't they bring out the clean tech and reverse sine and go to the news, and people mediate and pray and the asshats don humble robes, paint big zero's on their heads, and serve the people on bended knee, thats what im picturing we win.

Thought creates!

Don't hold in doom, but start to picture the world you want!

Last Edited by Sungaze_At_Dawn on 10/30/2013 10:20 PM
The Devil tries to convince everyone he doesn't exist.
The state tries to convince everyone they cannot resist.
Do not go quietly into the good night. Rage Rage against the dying light!
Sikhed

User ID: 47626355
United States
10/30/2013 10:22 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
Well they got to do something! Doing nothing is just stoopid.

Wonder why they can't just bury the whole mess in concrete like they did with Chernobyl.
:doom360:
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
10/30/2013 10:29 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster
I used to work in heavy construction. We refurbished dams and bridges and things like that. I don't ever remember being on a crew that had a catastrophic failure or anything even close. And we weren't working like a mistake is the end of the world and is going to kill everybody on the site and then some.

Have a little faith. Nobody working there wants to die. That will be their #1 incentive for doing it right. You'd be surprised what construction people can do. I worked on a few fucked up one of a kind projects myself. You just look it over and figure out some way to get it done. We had some pretty smart and creative people in our outfit and I'm sure they will too. We always managed to do the job. I don't see why they won't.

That said, It's the things you can't plan for that bite you in the ass. Like the defective boom cable on the crane breaking when you lift the load. I'm sure they'll have new ones installed just for that job and there will be three guys standing there watching every move while the rigger spools up the new one.

All you have to do is pray nothing crazy happens. The guys will figure out the rest.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 49196422
United Kingdom
10/30/2013 10:35 PM
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Re: Odds of fuel rod removal disaster





GLP