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Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!

 
Shelgeyr
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User ID: 29026
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06/26/2014 12:50 PM
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Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
I've been screaming for years that "complex iterative models", while arguably useful for guidance in certain circumstances (the article I link to below refers to them as "closed systems"), they can NEVER give you precise predictions. That's not what they're for. Turns out I'm not alone in this!

Hosted by Al Gore (seemingly at a Man/Bear/Pig conference???), and borrowing a whole lot of dice from RPG gamers, those radioactive fetishists at Nuking Politics explained an experiment which convinced me that when you try to model the weather you're only going to get wrong answers. And maybe eaten by polar bears. They weren't clear about the odds of that last part.

The article is called "$Trillions on a Roll of the Dice"

[link to www.nukingpolitics.com]

Pass the word, because folks - this is one experiment you CAN try at home!
Shelgeyr  (OP)

User ID: 6321116
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06/27/2014 01:30 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
bump

This is strange - I wonder why GLP does not see me as OP of this thread (if you can call this a thread), because technically I am.
Shelgeyr  (OP)

User ID: 6321116
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06/27/2014 01:32 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Oh well never mind - I guess it does after all!

Sorry!
Vash

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06/27/2014 01:33 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Did you know…. that polar bears have survived interglacial periods?

They simply 'turn into' Grizzly Bears in habit, build and colour of fur.

Just my 2c.

hmm
....

"If there is evil in this world, does it have mercy?"
[link to s328.photobucket.com] <-- some artwork --:~:
Shelgeyr  (OP)

User ID: 6321116
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06/27/2014 01:45 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Did you know…. that polar bears have survived interglacial periods?

They simply 'turn into' Grizzly Bears in habit, build and colour of fur.

Just my 2c.

hmm
 Quoting: Vash


I had never heard of that. I know they can interbreed easily enough, so I always assumed they were two extremely close branches, differentiated almost entirely by environment. I'm not claiming that's the case - merely assuming so. I actually have no idea, having no first-hand experience with bear biology.
Vash

User ID: 20063747
Canada
06/27/2014 01:50 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Did you know…. that polar bears have survived interglacial periods?

They simply 'turn into' Grizzly Bears in habit, build and colour of fur.

Just my 2c.

hmm
 Quoting: Vash


I had never heard of that. I know they can interbreed easily enough, so I always assumed they were two extremely close branches, differentiated almost entirely by environment. I'm not claiming that's the case - merely assuming so. I actually have no idea, having no first-hand experience with bear biology.
 Quoting: Shelgeyr


Whilst I have nothing 'first-hand', I do know for absolute certain that the fossil record of Polar Bears persists through interglacial periods.

Personally I just can't believe that Ice is seen as so necessary. Most of the biosphere's history contains no ice caps, and additionally, the Permian-Triassic extinction (deadlier even than the event that killed all reptilian dinosaurs) was as severe as it was, due to the icecaps growing on landmasses.


1dunno1
....

"If there is evil in this world, does it have mercy?"
[link to s328.photobucket.com] <-- some artwork --:~:
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 2451997
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06/27/2014 08:41 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Did you know…. that polar bears have survived interglacial periods?

They simply 'turn into' Grizzly Bears in habit, build and colour of fur.

Just my 2c.

hmm
 Quoting: Vash


I had never heard of that. I know they can interbreed easily enough, so I always assumed they were two extremely close branches, differentiated almost entirely by environment. I'm not claiming that's the case - merely assuming so. I actually have no idea, having no first-hand experience with bear biology.
 Quoting: Shelgeyr


Whilst I have nothing 'first-hand', I do know for absolute certain that the fossil record of Polar Bears persists through interglacial periods.

Personally I just can't believe that Ice is seen as so necessary. Most of the biosphere's history contains no ice caps, and additionally, the Permian-Triassic extinction (deadlier even than the event that killed all reptilian dinosaurs) was as severe as it was, due to the icecaps growing on landmasses.


1dunno1
 Quoting: Vash


Yer talking way over my head. Limits any meaningful contribution Imight make to just yelling "ManBearPig!" , so here goes... (ahem)

MANBEARPIG!!!

I am super, super cereal, you guys!
Anonymous Coward
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06/27/2014 08:52 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
I have been saying the same thing as you for years.
Dirtyboy

User ID: 59691092
United States
06/27/2014 09:14 AM

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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Too many variables to find and actual good model. It is hard enough to predict weather. I am amazed looking at Accuweather 30 day predictions and how they are very close. Occasionally a storm throws the predictions but for the most part they are close.
Dirtyboy
Think beyond impossible.
Dace
HelpTard

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06/27/2014 09:24 AM

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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!

....not even this one?
Shelgeyr  (OP)

User ID: 6321116
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06/29/2014 02:20 AM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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06/29/2014 12:16 PM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!

....not even this one?
 Quoting: Dace


Sexy weatherbabe, but that was WAY too much Snooptard to get thru just to see a chick in a bikini.

Not a Snoop fan.
Shelgeyr  (OP)

User ID: 57586969
United States
06/29/2014 11:46 PM
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Re: Climate Models Can't Be Trusted!
Wonder who's in da house at this hour?

Think I'll send a

bump

your way!

(I really can't pull off the lingo, can I? No street cred.)





GLP