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Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 10503161
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08/06/2014 03:19 AM
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Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 03:30 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Keep in mind, this is just a linear calculation and is in no way accurate in terms of a realistic forecast. A lot of other factors will likely slow or fizzle out this disease before it reaches a critical mass.

There will be people who simply never get exposed to the virus, and there will be survivors. There will likely be a cure or vaccine if it goes pandemic.

I was just curios based on the current infection rate of one person infects 1.86 people that this disease is currently rating at what exponential linear forecast may look at if nothing is changed and it makes it out of Pandoras box.

Have a nice doomgasm.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 03:47 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
bump
Mortimer

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08/06/2014 04:04 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Wasn't that about the amount they said they wanted dead? They have their machines now.
Daughter out with my own way.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:08 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Wasn't that about the amount they said they wanted dead? They have their machines now.
 Quoting: Mortimer


The real doom will come if they, the Elites who want Ebola to wipe out the population are also making sure it's covertly spread when certain outbreaks take place in new locations.

It wouldn't take much to keep releasing and spreading the virus under the cover that it's a natural phenomena, the majority would be less the wiser and would consider such a threat tin hat material yet...

It's been discussed that this is the depopulation bioweapon of choice by Kissinger and that insane psychopath professor Eric Pianka called for 90% depopulation by ebola as his solution for over-population.

I'm sure Bill Gates and his deadly polio vaccine will be just as elated if this thing succeeds.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:17 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Wasn't that about the amount they said they wanted dead? They have their machines now.
 Quoting: Mortimer


The real doom will come if they, the Elites who want Ebola to wipe out the population are also making sure it's covertly spread when certain outbreaks take place in new locations.

It wouldn't take much to keep releasing and spreading the virus under the cover that it's a natural phenomena, the majority would be less the wiser and would consider such a threat tin hat material yet...

It's been discussed that this is the depopulation bioweapon of choice by Kissinger and that insane psychopath professor Eric Pianka called for 90% depopulation by ebola as his solution for over-population.

I'm sure Bill Gates and his deadly polio vaccine will be just as elated if this thing succeeds.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161



It's happening right now.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:19 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
It's happening right now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60202338


I don't doubt it, let's see how bad this gets in the following 2 months... it will be the tell if the rate of infection skyrockets higher than this forecast. If it does, it's being deployed covertly.
ComingUpRoses

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08/06/2014 04:24 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
bsflag
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:25 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Lol at the one star bandit... now make me a doom sammich!
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:26 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
bsflag
 Quoting: ComingUpRoses


Technically, it's not BS based on the current rate of infection... but in reality it's likely not going to see those kind of numbers but who knows, maybe it could.

Makes 2016 one hell of a Doom year if so ;)
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:28 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


Very good post OP, i suspect by the end of this month that will indeed be the figures.

The R0 seems to be about 1-2, so once this gets to above a certain threshold its going to be impossible to contain.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:29 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


Very good post OP, i suspect by the end of this month that will indeed be the figures.

The R0 seems to be about 1-2, so once this gets to above a certain threshold its going to be impossible to contain.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:32 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Very good post OP, i suspect by the end of this month that will indeed be the figures.

The R0 seems to be about 1-2, so once this gets to above a certain threshold its going to be impossible to contain.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.


It's based on the current rate of infection and the trend we are seeing so something to concider moving forward that in the future this could become a #1 killer globally.

It is pretty doomy for a virus, I don't know why people think it's no big deal. It's not the old ebola, it's the numa new ebola virus.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 06:14 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


Worrying indeed, but I fear you are greatly underestimating the crisis. The rate of spread is going to go exponential. We have no idea of the real numbers in the epicentre of the current outbreak, but they are likely much, much higher. Now that the virus has reached major cities, and much more mobile populations, and now that it has been admitted it spreads during the incubation period, then it has to go exponential, not linear.

We already know that the guy who flew into Lagos infected at least three people, but they are suspicious of many more. But anyway, lets be ultra conservative and say he just infected two people. And then they each infected just two people (given that you have three weeks to infect before you know you are infected yourself, then it seems an absurdly low number). Then, by the end of August this year we should be somewhere around one and a half billion infected.

The linear model of spread is unrealistic because it assumes that something is going to be limiting the spread - because the infection rate will naturally increase as more people get it, thus going exponential - but in your model something is holding back that increase. In past outbreaks, or in outbreaks of other viruses that are treatable, then there can be retarding factors like that, but Ebola, when given an unlimited amount of fuel (ie. people) has no effective retarding factors other than effective quarantine. The quarantine can be natural (as in isolated villages etc) or man-made. Up until the point that the virus hitched a ride on board an airliner to a major city, such as Lagos, then although it was spreading, there was a natural retardation in the fact that the populations it was spreading through were poor, not very mobile, and confined mostly to that region of west Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. This meant that although the numbers were rising, they were rising in a slowed manner.

Now, however, the virus appears to be in developed countries. We are seeing the vanguard infected developing symptoms now - but they were likely infected weeks ago. So, considering the average citizen of western countries, especially those in cities, comes into close proximity/contact with hundreds, if not thousands of people per day, then it becomes absurd to believe that the average infected is not going to give it to more than two other people in the three weeks that they are incubating the virus. This is quite apart from anyone they infect whilst they are showing full Ebola symptoms.

This is now about social physics. I will be accused of fear mongering for saying this, but it isn't. It is just looking at the physics of the situation. We can wish it away, or try to believe the downplay of the officials, but this is the nightmare scenario that many people have talked about for decades. In all previous outbreaks there have been retarding factors in the spread. Those are now gone. You can't quarantine something at this point because it would be impossible to figure out who to quarantine. The fact is that the infected are likely all around us right now. I may be infected, you may be infected. We won't know until the obvious symptoms develop, and that could still be weeks away for millions of people.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 07:00 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Thanks for posting this stuff eh. Its probably the best discussion out of all the threads, mainly because it eliminates the hype factor and puts things into more concrete and relevant terms. YOU CANT mess with math, and even retarding the transmission rate paints a very real picture as to the sheer reality of the situation.

And your absolutely correct, it only takes one individual walking around unknowingly going to work, interacting with grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, etc. And all of those individuals interact with the populace more than anybody. Handling money is a huge one! Especially with flu like symptoms. Nobody washes or disinfects their hands every minute of every waking day. So as that person hands you your change or your goods, instant transmission. The person who stocks the shelves and produce at your local store has now unknowingly placed the virus on your soup, fruits, vegetables and everything in-between. So now one person has just passed things on in the thousands single handed. Based on the survival of this thing.

Or not.


Which reminds me, ive got to get groceries today. So much for organic keeping you healthy.

That said, if I hear any indication of the virus within 1000 miles of my vicinity i'm peacing out. Worst case scenario I loose my house and my business. At lease there's a cure for that and its been around for a long long time. BANKRUPTCY. At lease i'll live another day.
Indiana Jones

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08/06/2014 07:04 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
As mobile as our society is, the rate will be higher of infected persons ratio. IMO
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 07:38 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
If the virus begins to infect 1000s of people, it will mutate. For better or worse. A less deadly strain may actually make things worse overall. People will continue about their business even if they don't feel well -- infecting dozens. When the virus kills people within hours, the infected don't have the time or energy to spread it far. So imagine the death rate falls to 30% but the infection rate rises to 10 per 10,000 people. And at some point society would start breaking down. Violence and mayhem would cause new big problems. Yep, see if these numbers track for the next month. Watch Lagos. And pray.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 08:03 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
As mobile as our society is, the rate will be higher of infected persons ratio. IMO
 Quoting: Indiana Jones


I agree. Just looking at that one guy who flew into Lagos, he seems to have infected far more than two people.

A lot of people seem to have difficulty understanding why this is so serious. I think this is, in large part, due to the nature of the spread. Many people are using fundamentally flawed information as their start point for analysis; i.e. the official figures. There are a couple of things to bear in mind with the official figures for both infected and dead. One is that the official figures from this part of Africa are going to be substantially lower than reality due to the poor reporting infrastructure and number of people not seeking medical assistance from the authorities. But another, that almost no one is taking into consideration, is the time delay. If the official figures are even just a few days old then, as the rate of spread increases exponentially, they are massively lower than the actual, current reality.

The rate will accelerate. This is what everyone needs to the understand. If you accelerate the actual rate of infection then we are looking at a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. People will say that this is BS because it hasn't happened in previous outbreaks. But the truth is that this would have happened in previous outbreaks if the retarding factors previously mentioned hadn't come into play from the outset. These factors enabled the virus to be effectively contained. That is no longer possible.

As for mutation, it is a good point. But this is all going to unfold so quickly that I doubt it will have much bearing on events for most of us. Millions are likely already infected. And when you have million of infected unknowingly passing it around, then everyday the infected number rises by millions. That is happening now. We just won't see the symptoms for a few weeks.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 08:12 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Major Doom!
Indiana Jones

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08/06/2014 08:25 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
As mobile as our society is, the rate will be higher of infected persons ratio. IMO
 Quoting: Indiana Jones


I agree. Just looking at that one guy who flew into Lagos, he seems to have infected far more than two people.

A lot of people seem to have difficulty understanding why this is so serious. I think this is, in large part, due to the nature of the spread. Many people are using fundamentally flawed information as their start point for analysis; i.e. the official figures. There are a couple of things to bear in mind with the official figures for both infected and dead. One is that the official figures from this part of Africa are going to be substantially lower than reality due to the poor reporting infrastructure and number of people not seeking medical assistance from the authorities. But another, that almost no one is taking into consideration, is the time delay. If the official figures are even just a few days old then, as the rate of spread increases exponentially, they are massively lower than the actual, current reality.

The rate will accelerate. This is what everyone needs to the understand. If you accelerate the actual rate of infection then we are looking at a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. People will say that this is BS because it hasn't happened in previous outbreaks. But the truth is that this would have happened in previous outbreaks if the retarding factors previously mentioned hadn't come into play from the outset. These factors enabled the virus to be effectively contained. That is no longer possible.

As for mutation, it is a good point. But this is all going to unfold so quickly that I doubt it will have much bearing on events for most of us. Millions are likely already infected. And when you have million of infected unknowingly passing it around, then everyday the infected number rises by millions. That is happening now. We just won't see the symptoms for a few weeks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064


I fear that you may be correct. I don't think it is in the millions just yet. But I do believe it is much much higher than they are reporting.

Also, there have been several patients that tested negative to start, then wound up having the disease.

I don't think we should go into "panic" mode, but we should be watching this very carefully

Last Edited by Indiana Jones on 08/06/2014 08:26 AM
Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 08:28 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Major Doom!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46739242


Yes, and yet the level of ignorance about it is absolutely shocking still (even on GLP). People are comparing it to the flu and AIDS, people are averaging out numbers and infection rates, people are hanging on meaningless 'official' numbers, and people are, seemingly, unable to fathom the dynamics of exponential spread. I've even heard people say, offline, that Ebola only effect black people so we need not worry.

There is not a facepalm big enough to express how stupid many otherwise intelligent people are seeming to be relating to this outbreak.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 08:31 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
For those people who don't consider it possible for the infected to already number millions, please do tell me what retarding factors you are considering when contemplating the spread?

The only effective retarding factor with Ebola is quarantine. Is anyone seriously suggesting that we have managed to quarantine this virus? Plucking a handful of people out of society and putting them in quarantine hospital wards, after they have already been out and about spreading the virus, is not even remotely effective quarantine. So, what are these limiting/retarding factors?

If there are no effective retarding factors, then it is perfectly sensible to assume the virus has now infected millions worldwide and hence the rate of spread is accelerating.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 08:36 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


I say pin this everyone of them number has a name.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 10503161
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08/06/2014 10:21 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Worrying indeed, but I fear you are greatly underestimating the crisis. The rate of spread is going to go exponential. We have no idea of the real numbers in the epicentre of the current outbreak, but they are likely much, much higher. Now that the virus has reached major cities, and much more mobile populations, and now that it has been admitted it spreads during the incubation period, then it has to go exponential, not linear.

We already know that the guy who flew into Lagos infected at least three people, but they are suspicious of many more. But anyway, lets be ultra conservative and say he just infected two people. And then they each infected just two people (given that you have three weeks to infect before you know you are infected yourself, then it seems an absurdly low number). Then, by the end of August this year we should be somewhere around one and a half billion infected.

The linear model of spread is unrealistic because it assumes that something is going to be limiting the spread - because the infection rate will naturally increase as more people get it, thus going exponential - but in your model something is holding back that increase. In past outbreaks, or in outbreaks of other viruses that are treatable, then there can be retarding factors like that, but Ebola, when given an unlimited amount of fuel (ie. people) has no effective retarding factors other than effective quarantine. The quarantine can be natural (as in isolated villages etc) or man-made. Up until the point that the virus hitched a ride on board an airliner to a major city, such as Lagos, then although it was spreading, there was a natural retardation in the fact that the populations it was spreading through were poor, not very mobile, and confined mostly to that region of west Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. This meant that although the numbers were rising, they were rising in a slowed manner.

Now, however, the virus appears to be in developed countries. We are seeing the vanguard infected developing symptoms now - but they were likely infected weeks ago. So, considering the average citizen of western countries, especially those in cities, comes into close proximity/contact with hundreds, if not thousands of people per day, then it becomes absurd to believe that the average infected is not going to give it to more than two other people in the three weeks that they are incubating the virus. This is quite apart from anyone they infect whilst they are showing full Ebola symptoms.

This is now about social physics. I will be accused of fear mongering for saying this, but it isn't. It is just looking at the physics of the situation. We can wish it away, or try to believe the downplay of the officials, but this is the nightmare scenario that many people have talked about for decades. In all previous outbreaks there have been retarding factors in the spread. Those are now gone. You can't quarantine something at this point because it would be impossible to figure out who to quarantine. The fact is that the infected are likely all around us right now. I may be infected, you may be infected. We won't know until the obvious symptoms develop, and that could still be weeks away for millions of people.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064


I agree that the x1.86 multiplier can change but that is where it is statistically today based on the current information hence why it gives a theoretical forecast.

There was a thread discussing that it spiked to %346 percent infected:
Thread: Ebola Cases increase by 345% in 4 days!!

So here is a recalculation increasing the Rate of Infection ROI to 5% each month and let's see what happens.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62 ROI: 1.86
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 203 Dead: 122 ROI: 1.95
May, 2014 - Infected: 417 Dead: 250 ROI: 2.05
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 898 Dead: 539 ROI: 2.15
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 2,031 Dead: 1,218 ROI: 2.26
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 4,821 Dead: 2,892 ROI: 2.37
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 12,016 Dead: 7,210 ROI: 2.49
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 31,448 Dead: 18,869 ROI: 2.62
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 86,421 Dead: 51,853 ROI: 2.75
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 249,365 Dead: 149,619 ROI: 2.89
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 755,513 Dead: 453,308 ROI: 3.03
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 2,403,461 Dead: 1,442,077 ROI: 3.18
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 8,028,264 Dead: 4,816,958 ROI: 3.34
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 28,157,589 Dead: 16,894,553 ROI: 3.51
May, 2015 - Infected: 103,695,185 Dead: 62,217,111 ROI: 3.68
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 400,969,208 Dead: 240,581,525 ROI: 3.87
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 1,627,993,821 Dead: 976,796,293 ROI: 4.06
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 6,940,388,486 Dead: 4,164,233,092 ROI: 4.26

If the multiplier grows even at 5% each month, it gives us less than a year before the entire planet is infected, much less time to resolve the problem et al.

I do believe this is airborne based on the 100+ protective gear health workers infected. That tells me it's far more contagious than what the CDC/WHO claims.

Without accurate data this is all speculation but something to put some perspective on how fast and crazy it could be.

Since this is a little script I programmed, I added in a multiplier of 1.05% to the original +5% increase per month on the ROI... it's far more doomworthy if what you say is correct that the multiplier grows exponentially too.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62 ROI: 1.86
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 203 Dead: 122 ROI: 1.95
May, 2014 - Infected: 438 Dead: 263 ROI: 2.15
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 1,092 Dead: 655 ROI: 2.49
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 3,308 Dead: 1,985 ROI: 3.03
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 12,791 Dead: 7,674 ROI: 3.87
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 66,280 Dead: 39,768 ROI: 5.18
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 483,273 Dead: 289,964 ROI: 7.29
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 5,206,195 Dead: 3,123,717 ROI: 10.77
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 87,006,523 Dead: 52,203,914 ROI: 16.71
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 2,368,515,378 Dead: 1,421,109,227 ROI: 27.22
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 110,276,479,124 Dead: 66,165,887,474 ROI: 46.56
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 10503161
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08/06/2014 10:27 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Thanks for posting this stuff eh. Its probably the best discussion out of all the threads, mainly because it eliminates the hype factor and puts things into more concrete and relevant terms. YOU CANT mess with math, and even retarding the transmission rate paints a very real picture as to the sheer reality of the situation.

And your absolutely correct, it only takes one individual walking around unknowingly going to work, interacting with grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, etc. And all of those individuals interact with the populace more than anybody. Handling money is a huge one! Especially with flu like symptoms. Nobody washes or disinfects their hands every minute of every waking day. So as that person hands you your change or your goods, instant transmission. The person who stocks the shelves and produce at your local store has now unknowingly placed the virus on your soup, fruits, vegetables and everything in-between. So now one person has just passed things on in the thousands single handed. Based on the survival of this thing.

Or not.


Which reminds me, ive got to get groceries today. So much for organic keeping you healthy.

That said, if I hear any indication of the virus within 1000 miles of my vicinity i'm peacing out. Worst case scenario I loose my house and my business. At lease there's a cure for that and its been around for a long long time. BANKRUPTCY. At lease i'll live another day.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 57077199


What we know is that Ebola is spreading, and the number of cases are increasing (not decreasing) per month which shows an exponential rate of infection is at play but again we are speculating here. I've added some new variables to play with to see what different forecasts might look like if the multiplier is tampered with and increases or changes.

Ebola is no longer contained in Africa. There is no widely available cure.

If it's airborne we are lucky if we will be around by next year as that significantly changes the rate of infection especially in dense population centers.
frostback

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08/06/2014 10:42 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
As mobile as our society is, the rate will be higher of infected persons ratio. IMO
 Quoting: Indiana Jones


I agree. Just looking at that one guy who flew into Lagos, he seems to have infected far more than two people.

A lot of people seem to have difficulty understanding why this is so serious. I think this is, in large part, due to the nature of the spread. Many people are using fundamentally flawed information as their start point for analysis; i.e. the official figures. There are a couple of things to bear in mind with the official figures for both infected and dead. One is that the official figures from this part of Africa are going to be substantially lower than reality due to the poor reporting infrastructure and number of people not seeking medical assistance from the authorities. But another, that almost no one is taking into consideration, is the time delay. If the official figures are even just a few days old then, as the rate of spread increases exponentially, they are massively lower than the actual, current reality.

The rate will accelerate. This is what everyone needs to the understand. If you accelerate the actual rate of infection then we are looking at a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions. People will say that this is BS because it hasn't happened in previous outbreaks. But the truth is that this would have happened in previous outbreaks if the retarding factors previously mentioned hadn't come into play from the outset. These factors enabled the virus to be effectively contained. That is no longer possible.

As for mutation, it is a good point. But this is all going to unfold so quickly that I doubt it will have much bearing on events for most of us. Millions are likely already infected. And when you have million of infected unknowingly passing it around, then everyday the infected number rises by millions. That is happening now. We just won't see the symptoms for a few weeks.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064


IMHO containment is almost out the window, there are just to many hot spots and as you stated above there is absolutely no way we can relay on the numbers that are being resented for the infected, the dead, the contacts, or the geography I really hope that it will burn out naturally but alas I think that window closed as well.
Without a complete lock down this will reach the west (if in fact it hasn't already) then look out
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”
― Sun-Tzu, A Arte da Guerra
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 10:46 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
With that many dead in such a short time, we'll get more nuclear meltdowns. Hospitals will the last place anyone wants to be, they'll be death traps. All of society will break down and everyone will end up dead.

With 430+ nuclear plants all over the world, if 90% of the world's population is wiped out, there won't be enough people to man the nuclear power plants.

You can't shut them down like turning off a light, it takes decades to decommission the plants.

It takes highly skilled, highly trained individuals to man the plants. Once those people start dying, it will be impossible to find replacements.

The nuclear power plants will be doomed and earth and all life will be doomed too.

So if TPTB plan to somehow kill 90% of the population and magically stop all the death right there (even if they could pull that off), the other 10% will be sure to die as well.

It's an impossible plan.

Thread: Killing off 90% of humanity is in impossible goal
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 10:51 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
And your absolutely correct, it only takes one individual walking around unknowingly going to work, interacting with grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, etc.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 57077199


What about disturbed people doing that and more intentionally?

Thread: HIV positive people sometimes try to infect others and...Ebola?

For those who need to relax:

Thread: Ebola Outbreak Therapeutic Doom Album
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 10:53 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
IMHO containment is almost out the window, there are just to many hot spots and as you stated above there is absolutely no way we can relay on the numbers that are being resented for the infected, the dead, the contacts, or the geography I really hope that it will burn out naturally but alas I think that window closed as well.
Without a complete lock down this will reach the west (if in fact it hasn't already) then look out
 Quoting: frostback


No Ebola is not contained, they are saying it is out-of-control, and it's not local to Africa anymore. Many people in other countries are being observed and could have it.

It's the ones that slip out from containment and travel abroad even briefly spreading the disease that starts to cause concern.

People are only being quarantined if showing signs of infection of if they are known to have come in contact with an infected person.

It's all the nobodies that will kill us all lol... the ones that slip through the retardation factors.

That's already happening so Ebola is not an African problem.

Not anymore.
Azadok61

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08/06/2014 10:56 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Very good post OP, i suspect by the end of this month that will indeed be the figures.

The R0 seems to be about 1-2, so once this gets to above a certain threshold its going to be impossible to contain.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


It's based on the current rate of infection and the trend we are seeing so something to concider moving forward that in the future this could become a #1 killer globally.

It is pretty doomy for a virus, I don't know why people think it's no big deal. It's not the old ebola, it's the numa new ebola virus.


Look at the black plague of the middle ages ashen horse and sail ship was the only method of transmission of the infected travelers.

Then look at the influenza outbreak in the early twentith century and how quickly that traveled by motorized ship .

Now take today's travel systems , the long gestation period of the disease itself and i believe , unfortunately , your numbers are way off . In three weeks time the tale will be told if a vaccine and or cure is not found . The numbers will become so great in four to five months time that society will shut down until the plague runs its course .
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 11:12 AM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Could the following facts cause a huge spike in your numbers?

And your absolutely correct, it only takes one individual walking around unknowingly going to work, interacting with grocery store clerks, gas station attendants, etc.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 57077199


Later this month, millions and millions and millions of foreign university students will be returning to/traveling to universities in other countries. That includes millions from all African countries going all over the world for extended visits in every country in the world.

Then there are the guest professors who do the same, no doubt there are thousands and thousands of those.

Foreign African students spend 10 months or so studying in other countries. They return home for the Summer break, just in time to get infected with Ebola without realizing it. Then they return to their schools for the Fall semester and it's game over.

The clock is ticking.

Thread: Ebola Educational Doom?