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Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 02:48 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161



So by March of 2016 all of Nigeria will be infected.

Pfffft. Thats nothing to worry about then.

We still have lots of time before its finished clearing house in Africa.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 02:53 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.


hahah
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 02:56 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


1 Aug 2014
Cases 1603
Deaths 887

4 Aug 2014
Cases 1711
Deaths 932
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 02:56 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here in the US we have large gatherings frequently, even for mundane tasks as going to work. Look at it like this, barring snot and spit, we know absolutely it is carried in fecal matter. Now what happens when you flush toilet full of poo?

So my doomsday vector of the Ebola virus, is simply someone not feeling great, going to a large university, football game, and using the public restrooms, at that point anyone who uses that restroom afterwards has potentially been exposed.

We have so many more ways to spread this to HUGE numbers in this nation I think the spread of Ebola in the developed world will greatly outpace that of Africa.

The cashiers of this nation, walmart and target workers, mcdonalds, taco bell and so on. All handling money, and debit cards for large numbers of customers daily, being exposed to potentially infected money, and customers. Once they feel unwell, that class of workers doesn't have paid sick days typically so they would try to work through it. I would venture as far as to say, in a large city with 2 unknown carriers, average daily activities of shopping, eating, and working could easily reach 200-1000 people.

Subways, taxis, and public transit in general is another huge issue in my eyes. One person goes to the hospital, but has to stop to take a crap, and grab a bottle of water out of a vending machine on the subway system of NYC, between hand rails, atomizing a toilet bowl of infected Ebola-shat, coughing and sneezing, and so on. How many people could that person infect? Not to mention the hospital as well, waiting room sitting for an hour or 3 before being seen, anticipate a bathroom break once an hour to crap if the patient is experiencing diarrhea.

Then with a 21 day incubation period, those who have caught it wouldn't even know, and most in this nation would pass off the initial symptoms as being stress, bad food, or other medical issues present.

Once this kicks off, I am hooking up the Hepa filter equipped shop van, taping and plastic on every window, inside and out, and blocking all light from leaving my home. I can maintain positive pressure inside the home of clean .3 micron filtered air, have enough food and water on hand rationed out can last 6 months. Have LP/natural gas generator I can vent the exhaust straight outside.
 Quoting: Midwest spooked 39539516


You are one of the few smart people in the states! All I ever hear is people saying "it won't spread here because people wash their hands..." OK. First of all, I see at least 3-4 people a week at my office who either DO NOT wash their hands (because they only peed) or who literally just splash some water on their hands and shake them out. It doesn't matter if YOU pooped or get your own poo on your hands, the point is, it's a public bathroom, and hundreds of people HAVE pooed in there and then touched the door handles and flushers and sink knobs. Also, like the above poster said, at games where there are public toilets, most people don't bother washing their hands. I always have sanitizing WIPES (better than just gel or spray because it actually wipes grime off with friction) and a water bottle to rinse, as well as clean towels to dry. I've never seen anyone else go to this extent, so it will most certainly spread. Also, kids are going to infect their parents and care givers. They will touch clothing or hair, then the parents will touch it and get the bacteria without realizing it.

ALWAYS wash for 30 seconds, use soap, and use a paper towel to turn the water off. Otherwise, your just getting the germs right back on your hands from the knobs. I seriously don't get how most people don't know this, or make fun of my "germ phobia." I'm not a germ phobe, I just don't like the idea of other people's shit on my hands. Sorry.

And to the person who said "sanitizer is your friend..." moran! You still need to physically wash the germs off to be most successful. Also, sanitizer doesn't work on some bacterial strains. You really want to put your fate in the hands of a 99cent bottle of CVS sanitizer?
 Quoting: monkeytine


Our children are home schooled this year, last year my daughter got sick more than a dozen times in pre-K, before school, she had been sick 2 other times. So yes schools are going to be a HUGE vector for Ebola as well.

Now I have read, and I do not have links handy, that Ebola being viral is largely unaffected by antibacterial hand sanitizers. I sent the wife to the store today to buy some pool shock, and 5 more gallons of bleach for sanitizing, along with lotion. Once it gets into a major metro area close to us, we will done our N100 masks, and nitrile gloves when outdoors. If someone asks we will just say we had to take some medication which has temporarily compromised our immune system, or something to the degree. In that case, when we arrive on the front porch (3 season screened, it will have plastic placed over the screen on both inside and outside. We will decon, gloves and mask, will go into a trashcan, clothing will go into a sealed bag which will be opened in a bucket of bleach water and left to soak. Yes I know what bleach does to clothing. To prevent aerosolizing any particulate matter on our skin, we have regular spray bottles which will have a bleach water mix inside.

Once it gets here, in our town that's when board the outside of the windows, get air filtration, water filter in home is reverse osmosis already, and we become complete shut ins. I am lucky in the fact that are as set up as possible right now. We have an LP tank outback 500 gallon, was filled last Friday, it will be used to power the generator and heater if and when the natural gas grid stops. That LP tank has been hidden on our privacy fenced property too, ever green bushes and extra 6' privacy fencing panels. The thing we do not have is a well, so we compensate by keeping water on hand. The old rule of 1 gallon per day per person is considering bathing, and cooking, as of last night we have a 275 gallon tank in the basement which is full of treated water, 50 gallon hot water heater, we also have 1 claw foot tub which holds around 60 gallons, plus 12 cases of bottled water. Next week I plan on picking up another 12 cases. We do have a rain water collection system in place, however I wouldn't consider it clean water, and if electrical grid drops, wouldn't be able to purify it either, so that water will be used to flush the toilets.

I just see so many potential vectors for Ebola to travel through in the developed world. I haven't prepped much for biological stuff, so have been playing catch up this last few weeks.
 Quoting: Midwest spooked 39539516


Bacteria are living things, which is why we can actually kill them. Infection prevention could include boiling water, hand-sanitizers, washing, etc. Anti-Biotic ointments and Anti-Biotic medication will kill bacteria if an infection took hold.

Virus are not living things; they are simply RNA or DNA covered by a protein coat. Chlorine can break up viruses. It's been a while since I used to read about this stuff, but there should be some minimal "wait period" after the bleach is applied. For example, at a gym shower, the cleaner will pour a whole bottle of bleach on the floor and let it air dry for 30 mins.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 02:58 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


1 Aug 2014
Cases 1603
Deaths 887

4 Aug 2014
Cases 1711
Deaths 932
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


Figures just released from the 4th, which is minus the figures from the 5th which i expected.

+108 Cases ( + my 24-48 trend per day would = 132-156 cases by the 5th which we dont have figures for.

The trend of which has been around 115-120 cases every 3-4 days since the 20th of July. Around 1-2 case every hour and 1 death and hour.

Baseline at this rate is about 5000 cases and 2500 deaths by years end without any increases..... and we have yet to see if this has hit Lagos in any serious way. If it has, oh shit, this is starting to look bad. This may be seriously out of control by OCT/NOV
YouAreDreaming  (OP)

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08/06/2014 03:01 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Wow my first super pin thanks GM! It's important info.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:01 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


1 Aug 2014
Cases 1603
Deaths 887

4 Aug 2014
Cases 1711
Deaths 932
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


Figures just released from the 4th, which is minus the figures from the 5th which i expected.

+108 Cases ( + my 24-48 trend per day would = 132-156 cases by the 5th which we dont have figures for.

The trend of which has been around 115-120 cases every 3-4 days since the 20th of July. Around 1-2 case every hour and 1 death and hour.

Baseline at this rate is about 5000 cases and 2500 deaths by years end without any increases..... and we have yet to see if this has hit Lagos in any serious way. If it has, oh shit, this is starting to look bad. This may be seriously out of control by OCT/NOV
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


I'm err'ing on the side of slightly higher figures than what we are seeing officially, however this is consistently 100+ cases every couple of days now for almost three weeks, coincidentally the max incubation period.

The next 3-6 weeks are going to be interesting.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:04 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


1 Aug 2014
Cases 1603
Deaths 887

4 Aug 2014
Cases 1711
Deaths 932
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


Figures just released from the 4th, which is minus the figures from the 5th which i expected.

+108 Cases ( + my 24-48 trend per day would = 132-156 cases by the 5th which we dont have figures for.

The trend of which has been around 115-120 cases every 3-4 days since the 20th of July. Around 1-2 case every hour and 1 death and hour.

Baseline at this rate is about 5000 cases and 2500 deaths by years end without any increases..... and we have yet to see if this has hit Lagos in any serious way. If it has, oh shit, this is starting to look bad. This may be seriously out of control by OCT/NOV
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


I'm err'ing on the side of slightly higher figures than what we are seeing officially, however this is consistently 100+ cases every couple of days now for almost three weeks, coincidentally the max incubation period.

The next 3-6 weeks are going to be interesting.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


If the cases double in the next 3-6 weeks im going to liquidate some stuff and purchase 6 months of food and water.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:06 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
There's too many threads to keep track of, but I'll post this here.

If the medical personel is getting infected, they are either 1) not using full high-tech positive presure suits ("full gear"), 2) getting infected during decontamination, or 3) getting infected in a common area.

For item 2 above, imagine someone improperly taking off the gear. The outside of the gear would be contaminated. All you have to do is touch the outside of the gear and then rub your eye.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:08 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Wow my first super pin thanks GM! It's important info.
 Quoting: YouAreDreaming


GM and the MOD'S might save lives with the info thats been on GLP in the past few days. They should pat themselves on the back. This really could be serious.

I'm not super scared yet, but im watching this like a hawk.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:08 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Guys listen, this shit is scary. I get it, ok? I do. The human population of this world has always been kept in check by viruses, or some other method of sheer destruction. The Flu, Polio, Smallpox, you name it, these things have a purpose in nature. They keep populations under control.

Since the dawn of the industrial age we began to outsmart them all. We Vaccinate against the flu, we all but eradicated Polio in this country. We had beaten our enemies into near submission, and as a result, the worlds population has exploded. But our Genius is beginning to catch up with us. Anti-biotic resistant bacteria is on the rise, the flu is devising new ways to counter attack our defenses. And Ebola, well, lets just say it's doing what all viruses do. It's trying to survive, it's trying to find a way to use our own immune system against us. Think about this for a minute...

The Flu infects you, your body goes into defensive mode, realizing that it must expel the invader. So your own body fills your lungs with mucus and fluid, which forces you to cough. This is the real genius of the flu. It actually depends on your immune response to spread itself. And it doesn't have much time to do it either. Because your body begins to increase it's own temperature. Yes, having a fever is an immune response, not caused by the flu, rather it is literally your body attempting to make you so hot that the protein coat protecting the flu virus breaks down, allowing your white cells to attack.

This is what all viruses do. ALL of them. They find a way to exploit your natural immune responses to propagate themselves.

Ebola.... once just a hemorrhagic fever on steroids, now is a bona-fide menace. I work in a hospital laboratory at a major hospital in a major Metro Area. My wife works clinical micro for the same company. I'm very well versed in just about everything a STAT lab in a hospital can, and does do. My wife on the other hand, actually majored in micro, with emphasis on virology. So I wanted you all to know a few things about this outbreak that became apparent to us as it began to spread.

#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

#2. Africa is a mess. There is no way to tell how many are infected. Once upon a time Ebola would strike a village and wipe everyone out, and that was it. It would kill so fast that it could not spread out of the hotzone. Because of what I said above that is not the case anymore. On a continent where borders still mean very little to the native population, it is a scary mix. Even if the CDC or the WHO wanted to get accurate numbers, it would be hopeless due to the unknown number or people that distrust western medicine, refuse to get help, or wander around from village to village. The infrastructure simply does not have the same capabilities we do in the west.

#3. Even in the United States, out of all the various hospitals I have worked at, there is no hope of containing anything like this. One of the largest hospitals I worked at only had two reverse flow isolation rooms. TWO, let that sink in for a minute. If this thing goes as bad as some think it will, we are, quite literally, screwed. Patients only show up to the hospital when they go symptomatic. So by the time they get there, they've already infected their entire family, their work group, and anyone they got within a few feet of on the way to the hospital. When they get there the ER nurses would treat it either like Flu, or Sepsis. But the whole time the patient is infecting all of them. And all of them, in turn, begin to infect everyone else in the exact same way. If this is as virulent as the WHO thinks it might be, by the time people realize what is going on, there will be more sick people than there would be beds available at every hospital in the US combined.

#4. Testing blood for anything is not as simple as looking under a microscope. And hospital labs are not set up for exotic virology. We run basic Chemistries, Cardiac enzymes, blood counts, sed rates, drug levels, bacterial cultures, all the basic hands on shit. The kind of things that old people usually present for, blood loss, infection, and cardiac events. Anything exotic gets sent out. Sometimes to the State lab, most of the time specimens get sent across the country to Quest Diagnostics, or to other organizations actually set up for it. Your average city hospital is pitifully, laughably, not ready for anything of this nature. Sure, running a CBC can tell if you are dehydrated, it can tell of you are loosing blood, it can tell if you are fighting "something" off. It just can't tell what. A sed rate can determine if you have excess inflammation, but it can't tell you why. A Lactic Acid level can indicate Sepsis, but it can't tell you from what. The point is, at the early stages of an outbreak, people will get treated for run of the mill things. Because nothing a hospital can test immediately will be able to tell anyone that you are carrying the most deadly hemorrhagic fever currently known. Honestly, if a person came into a busy ER with a fever, the triage nurse would put them in the waiting room until a non urgent room opened up in the back. They simply have no way to know who is carrying what.

I'm not saying we're all gonna die. This thing could fizzle out. And everything could be fine. What I am trying to illustrate here is that just because a lab exists in a hospital, does not mean that it can tell you everything. There are triage algorithms that work for everyday field medicine, but nothing for an outbreak. Thinking that living in a developed nation will curb the spread is ridiculous. If anything, it makes it worse. Our commute, our workplaces, our homes, our methods of entertainment, all of those things that we love so much about living in the the west, are the things that viruses depend on to spread.

If this virus truly has found a way to transmit easier, the healthcare system would be completely overloaded with something they simply can not handle.

Anyway, I'm not trying to scare anyone, I just hope people can be realistic about the capabilities of hospital containment, hospital laboratory testing, and the fact that the healthcare system, in ANY country, could not handle a massive outbreak.

So don't expect miracles from front line hospital staff, we don't have the tools, and we certainly do not have the manpower. Ask anyone in the medical field how much overtime they could work if they felt like it, don't even get me started on how thinly stretched people in the industry are. Though I suppose if this does turn into something, that will become apparent very, very fast.

Good luck, don't freak out, wash your hands, be prepared, hug your kids.

That is all.
 Quoting: Aravoth 35282601


Thread: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:12 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
There's too many threads to keep track of, but I'll post this here.

If the medical personel is getting infected, they are either 1) not using full high-tech positive presure suits ("full gear"), 2) getting infected during decontamination, or 3) getting infected in a common area.

For item 2 above, imagine someone improperly taking off the gear. The outside of the gear would be contaminated. All you have to do is touch the outside of the gear and then rub your eye.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45799893


Another angle to consider is asymptomatic carriers infecting others.

Asymptomatic infected have been confirmed with ebola before, there was a paper back in 2000 in the lancet.

What we don't know is do non symptomatic infected people spread it around. Blood would be a given but that would be hard to contract like HIV, but do they shed via sweat/mucus/semen etc.
ComingUpRoses

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08/06/2014 03:12 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
you are crazy if you think we are being told real numbers
YouAreDreaming  (OP)

User ID: 10503161
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08/06/2014 03:13 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
There's too many threads to keep track of, but I'll post this here.

If the medical personel is getting infected, they are either 1) not using full high-tech positive presure suits ("full gear"), 2) getting infected during decontamination, or 3) getting infected in a common area.

For item 2 above, imagine someone improperly taking off the gear. The outside of the gear would be contaminated. All you have to do is touch the outside of the gear and then rub your eye.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45799893


Another angle to consider is asymptomatic carriers infecting others.

Asymptomatic infected have been confirmed with ebola before, there was a paper back in 2000 in the lancet.

What we don't know is do non symptomatic infected people spread it around. Blood would be a given but that would be hard to contract like HIV, but do they shed via sweat/mucus/semen etc.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521


Also makes me wonder if mosquitos can vector the virus or not... hope not.
Anonymous Coward
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Croatia
08/06/2014 03:17 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Hey OP...

Can I suggest a thread name like:

EBOLA: CONFIRMED DEATHS: XXX, INFECTED: XXX, pgXXX

So we can have a thread covering confirmed death toll of virus. Of course if you have interest in such coverage. pgXXX would be page of last confirmed update... Just a suggestion...

Take care...
iamalive
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08/06/2014 03:18 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Egomaniac
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YouAreDreaming  (OP)

User ID: 10503161
Canada
08/06/2014 03:24 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Hey OP...

Can I suggest a thread name like:

EBOLA: CONFIRMED DEATHS: XXX, INFECTED: XXX, pgXXX

So we can have a thread covering confirmed death toll of virus. Of course if you have interest in such coverage. pgXXX would be page of last confirmed update... Just a suggestion...

Take care...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61270319


I wasn't logged in when creating the thread so cannot edit the main post.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 61270319
Croatia
08/06/2014 03:35 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Hey OP...

Can I suggest a thread name like:

EBOLA: CONFIRMED DEATHS: XXX, INFECTED: XXX, pgXXX

So we can have a thread covering confirmed death toll of virus. Of course if you have interest in such coverage. pgXXX would be page of last confirmed update... Just a suggestion...

Take care...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61270319


I wasn't logged in when creating the thread so cannot edit the main post.
 Quoting: YouAreDreaming


Ah sorry to hear that, thnx for answer. Anyway it would be nice to have one centralized ebola thread with thread name about most important fact - death toll... I don't know how it will unfold but the statistical analysis looks scary. What scares me the most is it ability to spread with ease combined with the death rate. What an irony, only thing that can save us from nuclear war is Ebola...
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:39 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161



So by March of 2016 all of Nigeria will be infected.

Pfffft. Thats nothing to worry about then.

We still have lots of time before its finished clearing house in Africa.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56537535


As predictions go, this ain't bad. Totally verifiable from month to month. We'll have to wait and see if October can really accomplish the numbers you've predicted. If so...there's a real possibility of indoor tomato plants.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:41 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Oh....also....high transmission possibilities come the Holidays should inevitably lead to spikes in the data over time. So far....we haven't seen that yet...but who knows.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 03:43 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Hey OP...

Can I suggest a thread name like:

EBOLA: CONFIRMED DEATHS: XXX, INFECTED: XXX, pgXXX

So we can have a thread covering confirmed death toll of virus. Of course if you have interest in such coverage. pgXXX would be page of last confirmed update... Just a suggestion...

Take care...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61270319


I wasn't logged in when creating the thread so cannot edit the main post.
 Quoting: YouAreDreaming


Ah sorry to hear that, thnx for answer. Anyway it would be nice to have one centralized ebola thread with thread name about most important fact - death toll... I don't know how it will unfold but the statistical analysis looks scary. What scares me the most is it ability to spread with ease combined with the death rate. What an irony, only thing that can save us from nuclear war is Ebola...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61270319


Why do people put any faith in the official death toll numbers?

Even if you thought that government statistics were reliable (I would ask what you doing on this forum if you did)...

Look at the facts of what we're discussing with these numbers, here are some points to consider:

Understanding the new numbers today.

Looking at the new numbers today there was an cases per day drop. The case per day numbers reflect the numbers from July 23-27th instead of the last two reports. However that does not mean things are necessarily getting better. Fluctuations in cases per day have many causes and we will have to wait on the next 3 report to really see what is going on. Reasons for fluctuations are as follows. 1. System overload as more and more testing is accruing the results can take longer to achieve. 2. Collecting the dead. A jump can sometimes be seen when the dead are collected from an area and processed. 3. Most common is a result of the infection cycle an increase can occur as a new group becomes symptomatic. The case numbers per day then can decrease for a short period till the next exposed group starts showing symptoms. Due to the fact the most don't show symptoms in the first week.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60035161


You're missing a lot of factors such as:

1. Hospitals are turning people away because they're overcrowded.

2. Doctors and nurses are apparently literally RUNNING from people suspected of having Ebola.

3. Many Africans refuse to see doctors because they don't trust them.

4. Many cases of Ebola in West Africa will never be recognized for obvious reasons.

5. Do you think the bodies being dumped in the streets were ever screened for Ebola?

6. There are a lot false negatives involved with Ebola.

There are probably other factors that we're both missing. Right now, everyone's in the dark.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61056835


I realize I didn't list every factor. You are correct that the others you mention are factors. I think number 6 confuses a lot of people. They seem to think it is one simple test. Which it is not. Different stages require different tests. There have been a great deal of gaps in safety even when safety measures are taken. One other factor also are many of the dead are being buried with decontamination according to one of the Doctors on location.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60035161
Bansheegrrl

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08/06/2014 04:02 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I am a commercial construction superintendent in Mississippi and I worry about how many people I come in to contact with each week from all over the country. On our site there are probably forty workers, half are local folk from the surrounding four counties, but the rest are from states all over the country. I sign for packages and talk to drivers from FedEx, UPS, and various shipping companies from around the country every day. I deal with construction workers from all over the place. If ebola starts to spread in this country, I can' wear a tyvex suit, mask, gloves, and rubber boots at work. Even if I could the cost is prohibitive if I properly wore all that stuff and discarded it every day. I would have to quit my job and shelter in place out in the woods at my home. But there would then be no paycheck and no money. The bills would still have to be paid even during a pandemic. So what does one do? Stay at work and make a living and risk getting sick until the last possible phase during a pandemic??? Risk sickness, risk bringing it home to your family.....or quit your job for your families sake and then not pay the bills? Everyone may have to make this decision one day soon. But by the time you have to shelter in place, you may already be sick.

I guess we will have to wait and see. When the first case of Ebola hits our area, maybe that is the time to quit my job...if I am not sick already.
 Quoting: Jack Stowage 61267611


So true...So many of us are not equipped to "shelter in place" for weeks-months. I may have some extra food and such stashed, but it's mostly just in case there is a snowstorm and the power goes out for a few DAYS.
I work from home and am doing school online, but that doesn't mean my kids don't go to school, I go to the store,the post office, etc. By the time it reaches critical mass, the reality of holding fast is something that we couldn't pull off.
"It's a metaphor, see: You put the killing thing right between your teeth, but you don't give it the power to do its killing." ~ Augstus Waters
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:09 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I am a commercial construction superintendent in Mississippi and I worry about how many people I come in to contact with each week from all over the country. On our site there are probably forty workers, half are local folk from the surrounding four counties, but the rest are from states all over the country. I sign for packages and talk to drivers from FedEx, UPS, and various shipping companies from around the country every day. I deal with construction workers from all over the place. If ebola starts to spread in this country, I can' wear a tyvex suit, mask, gloves, and rubber boots at work. Even if I could the cost is prohibitive if I properly wore all that stuff and discarded it every day. I would have to quit my job and shelter in place out in the woods at my home. But there would then be no paycheck and no money. The bills would still have to be paid even during a pandemic. So what does one do? Stay at work and make a living and risk getting sick until the last possible phase during a pandemic??? Risk sickness, risk bringing it home to your family.....or quit your job for your families sake and then not pay the bills? Everyone may have to make this decision one day soon. But by the time you have to shelter in place, you may already be sick.

I guess we will have to wait and see. When the first case of Ebola hits our area, maybe that is the time to quit my job...if I am not sick already.
 Quoting: Jack Stowage 61267611


So true...So many of us are not equipped to "shelter in place" for weeks-months. I may have some extra food and such stashed, but it's mostly just in case there is a snowstorm and the power goes out for a few DAYS.
I work from home and am doing school online, but that doesn't mean my kids don't go to school, I go to the store,the post office, etc. By the time it reaches critical mass, the reality of holding fast is something that we couldn't pull off.
 Quoting: Bansheegrrl


They have camps for people like you just waiting. You probably wont have to worry about it though, your kids will bring it home to you before then.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:09 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
OP,

Good thread.

You should also try to find a running actual stats so that we can adjust your model to the trend we are seeing play out.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:10 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I got your "theoretical ebola spread" right here - NOTHING FROM NOTHING LEAVES NOTHING. There is no ebola crisis. This is a psyop.

You'd best consider your future before you continue pushing such tptb nonsense.

Idol1bsflag
Bansheegrrl

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08/06/2014 04:14 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
You mention people dying from specific diseases but what about all the people who require specific MEDICATION to survive?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61056835


Not just to survive, but to function in society and even have a somewhat normal life. Like the mentally ill for example.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61056835


What about those on regular anti-anxiety or anti-depressants? those aren't the kinds of things you can just STOP cold turkey. That can cause some nasty effects too...

I know most preppers say to have three months supply of meds on hand - problem is that most5 insurance co's are really cracking down on refills, etc. so you usually run out and have no "extra pills" before a new scrip gets approved.

Also, think of all the people on diabetic meds, BP meds, epilepsy, auto-immune, ...the list is crazy long. All it takes is a crack in the infrastructure we so depend on, and there's going to be more than just people sick with Ebola running around...
"It's a metaphor, see: You put the killing thing right between your teeth, but you don't give it the power to do its killing." ~ Augstus Waters
Bansheegrrl

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08/06/2014 04:26 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
I am a commercial construction superintendent in Mississippi and I worry about how many people I come in to contact with each week from all over the country. On our site there are probably forty workers, half are local folk from the surrounding four counties, but the rest are from states all over the country. I sign for packages and talk to drivers from FedEx, UPS, and various shipping companies from around the country every day. I deal with construction workers from all over the place. If ebola starts to spread in this country, I can' wear a tyvex suit, mask, gloves, and rubber boots at work. Even if I could the cost is prohibitive if I properly wore all that stuff and discarded it every day. I would have to quit my job and shelter in place out in the woods at my home. But there would then be no paycheck and no money. The bills would still have to be paid even during a pandemic. So what does one do? Stay at work and make a living and risk getting sick until the last possible phase during a pandemic??? Risk sickness, risk bringing it home to your family.....or quit your job for your families sake and then not pay the bills? Everyone may have to make this decision one day soon. But by the time you have to shelter in place, you may already be sick.

I guess we will have to wait and see. When the first case of Ebola hits our area, maybe that is the time to quit my job...if I am not sick already.
 Quoting: Jack Stowage 61267611


So true...So many of us are not equipped to "shelter in place" for weeks-months. I may have some extra food and such stashed, but it's mostly just in case there is a snowstorm and the power goes out for a few DAYS.
I work from home and am doing school online, but that doesn't mean my kids don't go to school, I go to the store,the post office, etc. By the time it reaches critical mass, the reality of holding fast is something that we couldn't pull off.
 Quoting: Bansheegrrl


They have camps for people like you just waiting. You probably wont have to worry about it though, your kids will bring it home to you before then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24156714


^^thanks!!
Actually, the best thing we've got going is that we live in a remote rural environment. So when I get the next chance to do a big shopping trip I'll stock up and hope we don't have to use it. i got no problem keeping the kids home if things start to look squirrely...
I'd off myself before going to one of those camps...
"It's a metaphor, see: You put the killing thing right between your teeth, but you don't give it the power to do its killing." ~ Augstus Waters
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:28 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
You mention people dying from specific diseases but what about all the people who require specific MEDICATION to survive?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61056835


Not just to survive, but to function in society and even have a somewhat normal life. Like the mentally ill for example.

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61056835


What about those on regular anti-anxiety or anti-depressants? those aren't the kinds of things you can just STOP cold turkey. That can cause some nasty effects too...

I know most preppers say to have three months supply of meds on hand - problem is that most5 insurance co's are really cracking down on refills, etc. so you usually run out and have no "extra pills" before a new scrip gets approved.

Also, think of all the people on diabetic meds, BP meds, epilepsy, auto-immune, ...the list is crazy long. All it takes is a crack in the infrastructure we so depend on, and there's going to be more than just people sick with Ebola running around...
 Quoting: Bansheegrrl


This is not to constitute individual medical advice. I can only say I have a child who takes meds that can't be stopped all at once if so it would result in side effects. I have addressed lack of meds with the Doctor when we were going through a change in insurance. I was told if she started to run out to half the dosage for a week or two. Reduce again for another week. After a few weeks of reduction the side effects from removing the medication should be reduced. However you will still have to deal with the effects of the original condition.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:29 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
Here is a quick calculation I created to see in theory based on the monthly increases of Ebola starting at 1.86 in March to the size of the world's population how long could this disease kill and spread if left unchecked and that spread rate is not slowed and no cures are found. Why does Ebola scare us in our worse nightmares? These numbers tell you why.

Mar, 2014 - Infected: 104 Dead: 62
Apr, 2014 - Infected: 194 Dead: 116
May, 2014 - Infected: 360 Dead: 216
Jun, 2014 - Infected: 670 Dead: 402
Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,247 Dead: 748
Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,319 Dead: 1,391
Sep, 2014 - Infected: 4,313 Dead: 2,588
Oct, 2014 - Infected: 8,022 Dead: 4,813
Nov, 2014 - Infected: 14,921 Dead: 8,953
Dec, 2014 - Infected: 27,753 Dead: 16,652
Jan, 2015 - Infected: 51,621 Dead: 30,973
Feb, 2015 - Infected: 96,016 Dead: 57,610
Mar, 2015 - Infected: 178,590 Dead: 107,154
Apr, 2015 - Infected: 332,177 Dead: 199,306
May, 2015 - Infected: 617,849 Dead: 370,709
Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,149,199 Dead: 689,519
Jul, 2015 - Infected: 2,137,510 Dead: 1,282,506
Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,975,768 Dead: 2,385,461
Sep, 2015 - Infected: 7,394,928 Dead: 4,436,957
Oct, 2015 - Infected: 13,754,567 Dead: 8,252,740
Nov, 2015 - Infected: 25,583,494 Dead: 15,350,096
Dec, 2015 - Infected: 47,585,299 Dead: 28,551,179
Jan, 2016 - Infected: 88,508,656 Dead: 53,105,193
Feb, 2016 - Infected: 164,626,099 Dead: 98,775,660
Mar, 2016 - Infected: 306,204,545 Dead: 183,722,727
Apr, 2016 - Infected: 569,540,453 Dead: 341,724,272
May, 2016 - Infected: 1,059,345,243 Dead: 635,607,146
Jun, 2016 - Infected: 1,970,382,153 Dead: 1,182,229,292
Jul, 2016 - Infected: 3,664,910,804 Dead: 2,198,946,482
Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10503161


I haven't read all 5 pages yet, but here are some things that could make the actual death toll much much higher:

1. Virus mutation to a more deadly type or to become aerosolized.

2. When people start dying off, crucial services such as clean water and power will go dark, as well as supply lines for food, medicine, and sanitary supplies, leading to many many secondary deaths by diseases such as cholera, malaria, TB,, as well as by people who rely on those crucial services and supplies to stay alive (diabetics, heart patients, etc.)

3. When the food and water runs out, there will be rioting and looting, which will lead to many, many deaths from violence.

4. Fires, floods, tornados, earthquakes etc. will become much more lethal due to lack of people working in the emergency services. Think how bad a Katrina would be if the entire world were to shut down and hide in their homes.

I believe the mutation to a deadlier form is the most likely scenario, which will only speed up all the other things on the list.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:35 PM
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Re: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
All the details at link.

[link to www.air-worldwide.com]

Modeling a Modern-Day Spanish Flu Pandemic

February 21, 2013
Editor’s Note: The 1918 influenza pandemic killed tens of millions of people around the world, making it one of the deadliest infectious disease outbreaks in modern history. In this article, Nita Madhav, a Principal Analyst in AIR’s Research and Modeling Group, characterizes the historic 1918 pandemic and estimates the effects of a similar pandemic occurring today using the AIR Pandemic Flu Model (scheduled for release in Summer 2013).

Why Was the 1918 Pandemic So Devastating?

Compared to other flu viruses, the virus that caused the 1918 pandemic was highly transmissible (as measured by the basic reproduction number, R0, the number of new infections generated by an infected person entering into a population with no immunity to the disease). For seasonal flu, the average R0 value is around 1.30, but the median R0 for the 1918 pandemic was much higher, ranging from 1.80 to 2.48. In some regions, the R0 of the pandemic pathogen even soared to 4.50. The notably high transmissibility of the 1918 pathogen may have been due, in part, to genetic factors that amplified the virus’s replication ability.

In addition to being highly transmissible, the 1918 virus was highly virulent, as measured by the case fatality rate (CFR), or the percentage of sick individuals that later die of the disease. During the 1918 pandemic, the CFR ranged between 2.0% and 5.0%, while seasonal flu today typically has a CFR of 0.2% in developed countries. Recent research has shown that certain mutations in multiple genes of the 1918 virus contributed to its marked virulence.


igure 3. Mortality rates caused by a modern-day recurrence of the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, as estimated by AIR (Source: AIR)

The stochastic “modern day Spanish flu” event generated for the AIR model produces an age CFR profile similar to that of the actual 1918 pandemic. Specifically, the stochastic pandemic event exhibits increased mortality rates among young- to middle-aged adults (25–34 years of age), yielding a “W”-shaped mortality profile very similar to the mortality profile of the actual 1918 pandemic. This “W”-shaped profile can be attributed to the ability of the simulated virus to cause a cytokine storm, demonstrating the model’s ability to capture the effects of this complex syndrome.

Table 1. Mortality and life insurance losses estimated by AIR for seven countries due to a modern-day recurrence of the 1918 influenza pandemic (Source: AIR)
Country
Number of Deaths
Industry Life Insurance Losses
(USD billions*)

Australia
15,000– 26,000
0.8–1.4

Canada
20,000–37,000
2.1–3.8

France
36,000–62,000
2.1–3.7

Germany
48,000–85,000
1.8–3.3

Japan
83,000–145,000
8.9–15.2

UK
36,000–64,000
3.1–5.5

U.S.
188,000–337,000
15.3–27.8

*All losses converted from local currency to USD using exchange rates as of 12/31/2012.





GLP