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REPORT ABUSIVE REPLY
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Message Subject
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Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly.
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
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Post Content
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I did some similar calcs myself, im expecting figures published in the next couple of days to be about 150-200 cases and 50-100 deaths up from the AUG 1st figures.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60771521 1603 Deaths 887 4 Aug 2014 Cases 1711 Deaths 932 Figures just released from the 4th, which is minus the figures from the 5th which i expected. +108 Cases ( + my 24-48 trend per day would = 132-156 cases by the 5th which we dont have figures for. The trend of which has been around 115-120 cases every 3-4 days since the 20th of July. Around 1-2 case every hour and 1 death and hour. Baseline at this rate is about 5000 cases and 2500 deaths by years end without any increases..... and we have yet to see if this has hit Lagos in any serious way. If it has, oh shit, this is starting to look bad. This may be seriously out of control by OCT/NOV I'm err'ing on the side of slightly higher figures than what we are seeing officially, however this is consistently 100+ cases every couple of days now for almost three weeks, coincidentally the max incubation period. The next 3-6 weeks are going to be interesting. If the cases double in the next 3-6 weeks im going to liquidate some stuff and purchase 6 months of food and water.
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