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Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:35 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I'm hoping for an early winter with frigid temps.
If ebola could survive western hemisphere weather
it would have already been here.
Duke Silver

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08/06/2014 04:36 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


And your area of expertise is?

This ebola strain is different and the medical community is scared
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60392737


My expertise is GLP and years and years of doom hype that didnt come. Just a few weeks ago it was ww3 with mh17.

we will be ok.
 Quoting: T-Man


My point exactly. By the first week of October of this year the ebola doom theme will be forgotten and replaced by another doom theme.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44550379


Well IMO there is a difference between false ww3 predictions, some comet that's going to destroy the world, etc...and Virus doom.

Virus doom is real. Every so often, a virus comes through and takes out millions of people. Back before mass transit even. Or people crammed in office buildings together all day.

I'm not saying Ebola is going to wipe out millions...but of any of the doom scenarios, a virus wiping out millions WILL happen again at some point, it's the only guaranteed doom.
“People have only as much liberty as they have the intelligence to want and the courage to take.”
- Emma Goldman
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:36 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


And your area of expertise is?

This ebola strain is different and the medical community is scared
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60392737


contrary to common belief, a person being an expert on one, dumb, isolated subject doesnot automatically make everyone else an idiot an incapable of intelligent and fruitful conjecture, just like the “expert” does.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:36 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Epic thread OP.

Question: If this strain of the virus has evolved with a lessor mortality rate, does the weakened condition of the host present a "target rich" environment that more deadly strains of any number of other viri?

If yes, doesn't it mean even the common cold could be deadly to the recovering infected?i
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9908226


Yes that is very possible, secondary infections are not at all uncommon with any virus. Although it's not the presence of another virus usually. In my experience thats usually the time that bacteria makes a move and starts to make you septic. You body makes every effort to rid the virus that it becomes so weak that you body cannot fight off bad bacteria already living in your body.

A good example of this is C-Diff, or MRSA. You have it right now, all of us do. MRSA is on your skin, and C-diff is in your intestine. But because you are healthy it is essentially inert.

The reason these things break out in hospitals is because when a patient presents with an infection viral or bacterial, the treatment often times results in a diminished immunity to other things. The end result is c-diff or MRSA finally gains the upper hand, and a patient who presented with something else, ends up fighting off something worse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601


Thank you OP for this answer.

I'm thinking along the lines of cascading effects leading to a massive die off of human population.

What we could see is a health care system not necessarily so inundated with dying Ebola patients but instead Ebola infected patients becoming ill patients who become carriers of the virus.

The Ebola virus doesn't kill them, but weakens them to the point that they are susceptible to other illnesses.

Those secondary infections along with their weakened state COULD kill them but also help to spread the virus.

That happens right now in hospitals. Go in for one ailment, contract pneumonia and your life ends not by your initial sickness but by the secondary infection.

Think about that, multiplied exponentially.

Through evolution, we already have "super bugs" that are not treatable with antibiotics.

If we have a serious rise in individuals seeking care/medication in hospitals it only heightens the probability that what was a controlled outbreak could become a massive strain on an already strained system.
NewsBee

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08/06/2014 04:40 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
EXCELLENT Thread...
Bansheegrrl

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08/06/2014 04:41 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Epic thread OP.

Question: If this strain of the virus has evolved with a lessor mortality rate, does the weakened condition of the host present a "target rich" environment that more deadly strains of any number of other viri?

If yes, doesn't it mean even the common cold could be deadly to the recovering infected?i
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9908226


Yes that is very possible, secondary infections are not at all uncommon with any virus. Although it's not the presence of another virus usually. In my experience thats usually the time that bacteria makes a move and starts to make you septic. You body makes every effort to rid the virus that it becomes so weak that you body cannot fight off bad bacteria already living in your body.

A good example of this is C-Diff, or MRSA. You have it right now, all of us do. MRSA is on your skin, and C-diff is in your intestine. But because you are healthy it is essentially inert.

The reason these things break out in hospitals is because when a patient presents with an infection viral or bacterial, the treatment often times results in a diminished immunity to other things. The end result is c-diff or MRSA finally gains the upper hand, and a patient who presented with something else, ends up fighting off something worse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601

bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55863393


NOT BS... that's standard biology...antibiotics and antivirals lower our ability to fight off everything else and can cause our own "good" bacterias to turn on us...
"It's a metaphor, see: You put the killing thing right between your teeth, but you don't give it the power to do its killing." ~ Augstus Waters
Azadok61

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08/06/2014 04:42 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
What has had me interested is that fact this has made the leap from forested to urban environment and is currently running outside of season.. Like the plague has a season you normally find ebola outbreaks within it's seasons (most typically dry conditions at the end of rainy season) with it seemingly breaking out of these known constraints the question is does it have the legs for further adaptations. I really hope not, but it worth noting each time it breaks free of known constraints..
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61272265


To me the disease has no longer mutated naturally , to many changes within its last known design , it has made three or more changes which from what I have read and what OP inferred indicates it has been tweaked or nature is no longer taking baby steps .
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 04:45 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
m.
bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9908226


Lmao, Secondary infections are BS? I'd encourage you to put it to the test then.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:46 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
"I used to work in a hospital, something is different about this Ebola"

Of course, because we have so much experience with this virus...

More lying fear mongering
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61032671


I didn't "used" to, I do.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601



I used to work in a hospital lab and I agree with what you have said here. This isn't fear porn, it's being told like it is. Nobody knows at this point how this will play out, but when people start coming into the ER or the doc in a box stand alone units, this thing will really spread. The trouble with it is it presents as so many other viruses do- fever, aches, sore throat, stomach trouble, vomiting, diarrhea- it could be anything. The long incubation period is the kicker and we all seriously need to be taking precautions right now. Washing hands, stop touching your face, use bleach wipes to wipe down tables, etc.

I think his post was very honest and accurate- read into it what you will. Hospital labs only have so much equipment and even the bigger hospitals with the big bucks only can handle so many of these types of patients at one time. If it breaks lose, the hospitals and doctor's office will be inundated and a breeding ground for more people to catch it. Be watching the news in your area and if you have any doctor, nurse, EMT friends, ask them what they are seeing- best indicator for your area.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:50 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
...


Yes that is very possible, secondary infections are not at all uncommon with any virus. Although it's not the presence of another virus usually. In my experience thats usually the time that bacteria makes a move and starts to make you septic. You body makes every effort to rid the virus that it becomes so weak that you body cannot fight off bad bacteria already living in your body.

A good example of this is C-Diff, or MRSA. You have it right now, all of us do. MRSA is on your skin, and C-diff is in your intestine. But because you are healthy it is essentially inert.

The reason these things break out in hospitals is because when a patient presents with an infection viral or bacterial, the treatment often times results in a diminished immunity to other things. The end result is c-diff or MRSA finally gains the upper hand, and a patient who presented with something else, ends up fighting off something worse.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601

bsflag
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55863393


NOT BS... that's standard biology...antibiotics and antivirals lower our ability to fight off everything else and can cause our own "good" bacterias to turn on us...
 Quoting: Bansheegrrl


intestines have waste and skin has hair stop the fear mongering
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55863393


Google this yourself- this is accurate information. If you doubt what OP is saying, why don't you provide back up information to support? Stop trying to derail this thread- let's get as much information out there as we can to help each other.
Rife man.
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08/06/2014 04:52 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
While the message of the OP is inspiring, you dont understand virology and thats obvious.

Use a frequency generator
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 04:56 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
bump
frostback

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08/06/2014 04:58 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
OP really sorry your well thought out and sober presentation of the facts had to be over run with TARDS, I'm with you on this let's hope it burns out before too many folks decide to hop on planes and head to the west.
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”
― Sun-Tzu, A Arte da Guerra
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Obama is the leading edge of the new Dark Age. It will last 1000 years until a new golden age.
Citizenperth

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08/06/2014 04:58 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I agree with everything OP said...

isolation.... them or you......

all rules currently for pandemic are being broken... i have no idea why.....

Last Edited by CitizenPerth on 08/06/2014 04:59 PM
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Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:01 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


^^^^^this^^^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44550379


So, the people that have already died just imagined ebola killed them?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547422


Well no. But im not seeing anyone around me ending up with ebola. Thats what i ment. Surely its bad for those people. I should have said it will do nothing for me.
 Quoting: T-Man


Well, it's like this... Viruses take time to spread. tounge
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:02 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
OP

How big is the chance to find a cure before it overtakes Europe (or other continents) ??
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:02 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
OP, thank you. This is pretty much what I've been trying to tell people. So many people are not appreciating the details that make this outbreak so different, but it is in the details that the devil is.

I agree entirely with you OP. I've spent enough time in and out of our hospitals here in the UK, and have relatives who work in the ambulance service, to know that our health service, as great as it is, will not be able to cope with more than a handful of cases. I also have noted the same observations about how this time Ebola seems way more contagious, even when being incubated.

The two points that I think are most concerning are the fact that the only effective treatment of Ebola in the past has been quarantine. Whilst part of the quarantine was man-made, the nature of the virus (ie. being 90% lethal), and the fact that the outbreaks were in small, poor, low mobility, isolated populations, aided greatly in the effective quarantine. This meant, as OP said, that the virus could literally burn itself out. In this outbreak quarantine has already been rendered useless. The other alarming point is that, despite official denials, even Médecins Sans Frontières (the organisation with the most experience of dealing with Ebola - 15 previous outbreaks) seem to consider that this time not only is it a massive 21 day incubation, but that people are contagious during incubation.

This is very different to other Ebola outbreaks, and it is entirely on a different level of dangerous to any known influenza or even viruses like AIDS. As for people who say they will 'worry when there are thousands dying' - well, it is just an idiotic thing to say. The virus has only just started spreading exponentially in large international urban cities (like Lagos), so considering the incubation, we are only going to be seeing relatively low numbers with actual Ebola symptoms manifesting themselves right now... but as the days go, though the official figures (which as OP pointed out, are next to useless) won't reflect it, the virus will be spreading to millions. In a few weeks there will be an explosion of people with symptoms, but by then tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions more will already be incubating the virus.

Lets hope for a miracle.
Galfeslaf

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08/06/2014 05:03 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Thanks OP.

Also, I highly encourage you to start deleting the troll/shill posts if you can. Some people will feel assured that nothing will happen if they are reading these moronic posts. Either someone is throwing a lot of money to the shill dept, or a whole lot of people must love tickling their duodenums with their noses. I don't know which.

I do know that their posts and opinions are worthless though. Try to remove them, if possible. Make sure they know they've wasted their time by their lashing out at reason to assuage their fears.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:04 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Do you really think that if there was an Ebola outbreak that hospital will simply let someone with a fever and other such symptoms wait in the emergency room, and then wait for lab results to come back from the other side of the country?

I don't think so.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60249311


You miss the point. The moment they enter the emergency room (well, actually the moment they start travelling to the emergency room), they will be infecting people. Sure, the hospital may isolate them - but it can't isolate them until they arrive and are seen to have symptoms. Even then, if it is busy - which ERs usually are - it won't happen immediately. And if there are many people turning up with symptoms, just where do you think they will put them?

Seriously, comments like yours, with all due respect, just show how people are not thinking about the realities.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Lets hope for a miracle.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064


Don't count on one to come. If human nature has taught me anything, it's that rules or guidelines don't keep desperation into account.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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08/06/2014 05:07 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
OP

How big is the chance to find a cure before it overtakes Europe (or other continents) ??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53633906


Zero, we can't even cure the common cold. Really the only thing you can do is treat symptomatically. Combat dehydration with fluid challenges, combat blood loss with units of blood. Etc.

Again, I'm NOT saying this will overtake anything. I'm saying if it happens, the world is laughably unprepared.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:10 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Thanks OP.

Also, I highly encourage you to start deleting the troll/shill posts if you can. Some people will feel assured that nothing will happen if they are reading these moronic posts. Either someone is throwing a lot of money to the shill dept, or a whole lot of people must love tickling their duodenums with their noses. I don't know which.

I do know that their posts and opinions are worthless though. Try to remove them, if possible. Make sure they know they've wasted their time by their lashing out at reason to assuage their fears.
 Quoting: Galfeslaf


Agree- good idea! I hate to see someone come on here with truth and trying to help and their whole message is over run by people talking nonsense and derailing the information.

OP- besides bleach, what can people be using out and about to wash their hands with when they have been in crowded areas? I can't find any products with chlorhexidine gluconate. What do you think?
Madmacs

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08/06/2014 05:10 PM

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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
remember a few years ago and everyone was panicking about some flu...and Purell made a fortune because everyone was buying it and bathing in it...and nothing happened...


whatever
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:11 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Guys listen, this shit is scary. I get it, ok? I do. The human population of this world has always been kept in check by viruses, or some other method of sheer destruction. The Flu, Polio, Smallpox, you name it, these things have a purpose in nature. They keep populations under control.

Since the dawn of the industrial age we began to outsmart them all. We Vaccinate against the flu, we all but eradicated Polio in this country. We had beaten our enemies into near submission, and as a result, the worlds population has exploded. But our Genius is beginning to catch up with us. Anti-biotic resistant bacteria is on the rise, the flu is devising new ways to counter attack our defenses. And Ebola, well, lets just say it's doing what all viruses do. It's trying to survive, it's trying to find a way to use our own immune system against us. Think about this for a minute...

The Flu infects you, your body goes into defensive mode, realizing that it must expel the invader. So your own body fills your lungs with mucus and fluid, which forces you to cough. This is the real genius of the flu. It actually depends on your immune response to spread itself. And it doesn't have much time to do it either. Because your body begins to increase it's own temperature. Yes, having a fever is an immune response, not caused by the flu, rather it is literally your body attempting to make you so hot that the protein coat protecting the flu virus breaks down, allowing your white cells to attack.

This is what all viruses do. ALL of them. They find a way to exploit your natural immune responses to propagate themselves.

Ebola.... once just a hemorrhagic fever on steroids, now is a bona-fide menace. I work in a hospital laboratory at a major hospital in a major Metro Area. My wife works clinical micro for the same company. I'm very well versed in just about everything a STAT lab in a hospital can, and does do. My wife on the other hand, actually majored in micro, with emphasis on virology. So I wanted you all to know a few things about this outbreak that became apparent to us as it began to spread.

#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

#2. Africa is a mess. There is no way to tell how many are infected. Once upon a time Ebola would strike a village and wipe everyone out, and that was it. It would kill so fast that it could not spread out of the hotzone. Because of what I said above that is not the case anymore. On a continent where borders still mean very little to the native population, it is a scary mix. Even if the CDC or the WHO wanted to get accurate numbers, it would be hopeless due to the unknown number or people that distrust western medicine, refuse to get help, or wander around from village to village. The infrastructure simply does not have the same capabilities we do in the west.

#3. Even in the United States, out of all the various hospitals I have worked at, there is no hope of containing anything like this. One of the largest hospitals I worked at only had two reverse flow isolation rooms. TWO, let that sink in for a minute. If this thing goes as bad as some think it will, we are, quite literally, screwed. Patients only show up to the hospital when they go symptomatic. So by the time they get there, they've already infected their entire family, their work group, and anyone they got within a few feet of on the way to the hospital. When they get there the ER nurses would treat it either like Flu, or Sepsis. But the whole time the patient is infecting all of them. And all of them, in turn, begin to infect everyone else in the exact same way. If this is as virulent as the WHO thinks it might be, by the time people realize what is going on, there will be more sick people than there would be beds available at every hospital in the US combined.

#4. Testing blood for anything is not as simple as looking under a microscope. And hospital labs are not set up for exotic virology. We run basic Chemistries, Cardiac enzymes, blood counts, sed rates, drug levels, bacterial cultures, all the basic hands on shit. The kind of things that old people usually present for, blood loss, infection, and cardiac events. Anything exotic gets sent out. Sometimes to the State lab, most of the time specimens get sent across the country to Quest Diagnostics, or to other organizations actually set up for it. Your average city hospital is pitifully, laughably, not ready for anything of this nature. Sure, running a CBC can tell if you are dehydrated, it can tell of you are loosing blood, it can tell if you are fighting "something" off. It just can't tell what. A sed rate can determine if you have excess inflammation, but it can't tell you why. A Lactic Acid level can indicate Sepsis, but it can't tell you from what. The point is, at the early stages of an outbreak, people will get treated for run of the mill things. Because nothing a hospital can test immediately will be able to tell anyone that you are carrying the most deadly hemorrhagic fever currently known. Honestly, if a person came into a busy ER with a fever, the triage nurse would put them in the waiting room until a non urgent room opened up in the back. They simply have no way to know who is carrying what.

I'm not saying we're all gonna die. This thing could fizzle out. And everything could be fine. What I am trying to illustrate here is that just because a lab exists in a hospital, does not mean that it can tell you everything. There are triage algorithms that work for everyday field medicine, but nothing for an outbreak. Thinking that living in a developed nation will curb the spread is ridiculous. If anything, it makes it worse. Our commute, our workplaces, our homes, our methods of entertainment, all of those things that we love so much about living in the the west, are the things that viruses depend on to spread.

If this virus truly has found a way to transmit easier, the healthcare system would be completely overloaded with something they simply can not handle.

Anyway, I'm not trying to scare anyone, I just hope people can be realistic about the capabilities of hospital containment, hospital laboratory testing, and the fact that the healthcare system, in ANY country, could not handle a massive outbreak.

So don't expect miracles from front line hospital staff, we don't have the tools, and we certainly do not have the manpower. Ask anyone in the medical field how much overtime they could work if they felt like it, don't even get me started on how thinly stretched people in the industry are. Though I suppose if this does turn into something, that will become apparent very, very fast.

Good luck, don't freak out, wash your hands, be prepared, hug your kids.

That is all.
 Quoting: Aravoth 35282601


Thanks for this. The more info we all have, the better.

I'm well placed to work from home and my house is 100 yards or more from all neighbors. My worry is my husband who has to show up at work, and my 20-something daughter who of course would not take to being home-bound.

What are people's thoughts on their young adult children? What will you do to keep them safe?
jpop

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08/06/2014 05:11 PM

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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I agree with everything you wrote except:


#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

The mortality rate hasn't gone down.
Some of the most extreme cases had a 100% mortality rate, but that is because they were the first cases and nobody knew anything about the virus.

The other 5 outbreaks were in the low 80% range
.
6 out 14 cases of Zaire Ebola had the same mortality rate or lower than the current outbreak which is between 60%-75%

2008 Democratic Republic of Congo 44%, 2007 71%
2001-2002 Congo 75%
1996 Gabon 75%, again in 1996 68%, 1997 60%
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:11 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


^^^^^this^^^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44550379


already wrong. it caused you to type utter crap in glp again. and has killed people, and apparently pays for your rent -- per words, or hour still unknown -- because it is a secret. right? right???
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61252436



Mark your calendar doomtard. Watch and learn


crazyjak
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08/06/2014 05:13 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


you mean besides killing the thousands it has already killed?
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:17 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
The human cattle on GLP is already begging for a vaccine.
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2014 05:18 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Guys listen, this shit is scary. I get it, ok? I do. The human population of this world has always been kept in check by viruses, or some other method of sheer destruction. The Flu, Polio, Smallpox, you name it, these things have a purpose in nature. They keep populations under control.

Since the dawn of the industrial age we began to outsmart them all. We Vaccinate against the flu, we all but eradicated Polio in this country. We had beaten our enemies into near submission, and as a result, the worlds population has exploded. But our Genius is beginning to catch up with us. Anti-biotic resistant bacteria is on the rise, the flu is devising new ways to counter attack our defenses. And Ebola, well, lets just say it's doing what all viruses do. It's trying to survive, it's trying to find a way to use our own immune system against us. Think about this for a minute...

The Flu infects you, your body goes into defensive mode, realizing that it must expel the invader. So your own body fills your lungs with mucus and fluid, which forces you to cough. This is the real genius of the flu. It actually depends on your immune response to spread itself. And it doesn't have much time to do it either. Because your body begins to increase it's own temperature. Yes, having a fever is an immune response, not caused by the flu, rather it is literally your body attempting to make you so hot that the protein coat protecting the flu virus breaks down, allowing your white cells to attack.

This is what all viruses do. ALL of them. They find a way to exploit your natural immune responses to propagate themselves.

Ebola.... once just a hemorrhagic fever on steroids, now is a bona-fide menace. I work in a hospital laboratory at a major hospital in a major Metro Area. My wife works clinical micro for the same company. I'm very well versed in just about everything a STAT lab in a hospital can, and does do. My wife on the other hand, actually majored in micro, with emphasis on virology. So I wanted you all to know a few things about this outbreak that became apparent to us as it began to spread.

#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

#2. Africa is a mess. There is no way to tell how many are infected. Once upon a time Ebola would strike a village and wipe everyone out, and that was it. It would kill so fast that it could not spread out of the hotzone. Because of what I said above that is not the case anymore. On a continent where borders still mean very little to the native population, it is a scary mix. Even if the CDC or the WHO wanted to get accurate numbers, it would be hopeless due to the unknown number or people that distrust western medicine, refuse to get help, or wander around from village to village. The infrastructure simply does not have the same capabilities we do in the west.

#3. Even in the United States, out of all the various hospitals I have worked at, there is no hope of containing anything like this. One of the largest hospitals I worked at only had two reverse flow isolation rooms. TWO, let that sink in for a minute. If this thing goes as bad as some think it will, we are, quite literally, screwed. Patients only show up to the hospital when they go symptomatic. So by the time they get there, they've already infected their entire family, their work group, and anyone they got within a few feet of on the way to the hospital. When they get there the ER nurses would treat it either like Flu, or Sepsis. But the whole time the patient is infecting all of them. And all of them, in turn, begin to infect everyone else in the exact same way. If this is as virulent as the WHO thinks it might be, by the time people realize what is going on, there will be more sick people than there would be beds available at every hospital in the US combined.

#4. Testing blood for anything is not as simple as looking under a microscope. And hospital labs are not set up for exotic virology. We run basic Chemistries, Cardiac enzymes, blood counts, sed rates, drug levels, bacterial cultures, all the basic hands on shit. The kind of things that old people usually present for, blood loss, infection, and cardiac events. Anything exotic gets sent out. Sometimes to the State lab, most of the time specimens get sent across the country to Quest Diagnostics, or to other organizations actually set up for it. Your average city hospital is pitifully, laughably, not ready for anything of this nature. Sure, running a CBC can tell if you are dehydrated, it can tell of you are loosing blood, it can tell if you are fighting "something" off. It just can't tell what. A sed rate can determine if you have excess inflammation, but it can't tell you why. A Lactic Acid level can indicate Sepsis, but it can't tell you from what. The point is, at the early stages of an outbreak, people will get treated for run of the mill things. Because nothing a hospital can test immediately will be able to tell anyone that you are carrying the most deadly hemorrhagic fever currently known. Honestly, if a person came into a busy ER with a fever, the triage nurse would put them in the waiting room until a non urgent room opened up in the back. They simply have no way to know who is carrying what.

I'm not saying we're all gonna die. This thing could fizzle out. And everything could be fine. What I am trying to illustrate here is that just because a lab exists in a hospital, does not mean that it can tell you everything. There are triage algorithms that work for everyday field medicine, but nothing for an outbreak. Thinking that living in a developed nation will curb the spread is ridiculous. If anything, it makes it worse. Our commute, our workplaces, our homes, our methods of entertainment, all of those things that we love so much about living in the the west, are the things that viruses depend on to spread.

If this virus truly has found a way to transmit easier, the healthcare system would be completely overloaded with something they simply can not handle.

Anyway, I'm not trying to scare anyone, I just hope people can be realistic about the capabilities of hospital containment, hospital laboratory testing, and the fact that the healthcare system, in ANY country, could not handle a massive outbreak.

So don't expect miracles from front line hospital staff, we don't have the tools, and we certainly do not have the manpower. Ask anyone in the medical field how much overtime they could work if they felt like it, don't even get me started on how thinly stretched people in the industry are. Though I suppose if this does turn into something, that will become apparent very, very fast.

Good luck, don't freak out, wash your hands, be prepared, hug your kids.

That is all.
 Quoting: Aravoth 35282601

I concur with this person completely.

Background:
MT or Ms nowadays (b.s. medical lab)
USAF medical lab.
Been out of this field for a while, but still have many years experience.

Folks the only people that know more about infectious are pathologist, virologist, few doctors of vet med, and few epidemiologist.

Regular MD, or d.o. do not come close in hours on infectious as we do. Vet med spend twice to 3 times.

Please listen, prepare, and hope for best





GLP