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Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 05:35 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
What is the possibility that the Chikungunya virus which presents similar symptoms could confuse the medical system to the point of paralysis. Cases are increasing in the U.S. as the Ebola spreads in Africa. In fact many viruses have similar symptoms so confusion seems inevitable. The headache, fever and joint pain are common symptoms and sorting through who has what seems like a near impossible task.

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60532823


OP, help me out here. Although this virus starts out with symptoms that are common, this is still a virus associated with hemorrhagic fever. There are only five viruses that cause hemorrhagic fever. Ebola is the one that is out there as a threat right now.

Viruses associated with hemorrhagic fever all have similar symptoms different than other viruses. They cause various bleeding disorders - thus the name hemorrhagic. The culprit is disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIH). DIH is a process in which small blood clots form in blood vessels throughout the body, removing platelets necessary for clotting from the bloodstream and reducing clotting ability. [link to en.wikipedia.org] Thus hemorrhage is the main issue. The blood test for diagnosis of hemorrhage is a simple white cell count, platelet count and blood clotting tests which shows an increase in prothrombin (PT) and activated partial thromboplastic times (PTT). These tests are common - a CBC and Hepatic Function tests (liver function) that are run by most any hospital lab.

My question is at what point in the cycle of an Ebola virus does the white cells and platelets begin to decrease and PT and PTT levels (blood clotting times) begin to increase sufficiently to be suspicious? Other hemorrhagic viruses show these blood level increases and decreases within days.

I worked for a pharmaceutical research company up until 8 years ago. I was part of a team that revived an old study on the viruses that included hemorrhagic fever. It was apparent that platelet counts decreased and PT and PTT tests increased in fairly early stages of a hemorrhagic virus and was used for early detection in patients in infected hot zones. As well, Petechia (red spots on the skin that is caused by minor hemorrhage) was an early sign along with broken capillaries in the eyes and other similar minor hemorrhage symptoms. Among multiple studies done in various countries that were hosts to these viruses (Lassa, Dengue etc.), with well over a thousand subjects, the early stage symptoms were similar, even though there were some distinct characteristics of each virus. The end result of this was that a specific antiviral did work in approximately 85% to 90% if given in early stages. Once moderate to heavy hemorrhage began, the results were far less. Unfortunately, the affects of the antiviral were almost as hazardous as the virus for some people. We're not talking about a simple antiviral for viruses like this.

My second question to you is....why all the hype about the need for exotic blood tests done in biocontainment labs? If there is a definitive Ebola outbreak anywhere in the world, wouldn't there be a protocol set in place to use tests more easily obtained in a quick manner when early stage symptoms occur? I know a specific protocol was used in the past in hot zones because of the excessive length of time for specific testing....If there is an outbreak of Ebola in the US and a person has physical symptoms and suspicious lab work, I'd want to bet it is Ebola without the exotic test.

Again, there are definitive protocols for handling patients with possible symptoms in hot zones, including those seeking help in an emergency room. To state that patients with fevers, vomiting and diarrhea would be left to sit in an ER waiting room to infect others is absurd. Triage is generally set up outside in tents to keep infected patients separated from other patients. This certainly is far from ideal and isn't any guarantee but it is better than jamming infected people in an ER with patients with other issues. I think it is a possibility that this is coming soon, very soon.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 59909649


All the hype about referred tests is because in the beginning, there wouldn't be any protocol. Before anyone knows there is an outbreak it will be business as usual.

Regardless, yes, running some Coags, and checking a patients plt count, would tell you alot. But why the hell would you need to check coags on a 22 year old with a fever, who never even left the country, let alone spent time in west Africa? Explain that to his insurance provider.

The Scenario I outlined in the OP and through the thread is what will happen if an outbreak happens, but hasn't gone widespread yet. Meaning people are infected, but no one realizes how many or who yet.

I'm sorry you think that people with fevers, vomiting, and diarrhea is absurd. I think it is also. and I feel very bad every day at work when I see exactly that. If you do not believe me, pick an ER in you city, and just go sit in the waiting area, read a book. watch the process. It's just standard protocol.

What you are talking about is containment in a hotzone, something that a few thousand people between CDC, WHO, and USAMRID, know all about. General practice MD's, ER Nurses, shit, even in the ICU, none of them know anything about that.

There are almost six thousand hospitals in this country, close to 1 million beds combined, something like 300-400,000 nurses, untold numbers of ancillary staff. Thats all. Those kind of numbers desperately trying to find space for and keep up with a viral infection that they wouldn't even know has hit yet, and 99% of them don't know shit about viral quarantine procedures.

You're right that eventually protocols would be changed, and proper isolation procedures would kick in, but by the time it does, things would be spinning out of control.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601


Thank you for clearing up that you are referring to early stages of an epidemic OP.

It is shocking that at early stages, certain symptoms would not be flagged at ERs as suspicious. This should be taking place now, not after we have multiple confirmed cases within the US.

I suppose I read too many case histories of people with Hemorrhagic Fever and saw how apparent the symptoms were at an early stage. I read about broken blood vessels in the eyes turned into hemorrhaging from the eyes, how gradual increasing liver and kidney levels turned into liver and kidney failure, and in a small number of cases, hearts that literally seemed to explode when blood vessels appeared to disintegrate, case by case. Most of all, I saw how early intervention made a huge difference in survival. But as you said, this happens in hot zones of known breakouts and until it gets to that point, protocols will not be put in place, but it will be a day late and a dollar short. And yes, many people will die due to the delay...for what? To avoid panic. People read the news and the panic will be there regardless. I'd rather be safe than fear panic and I think that the average person would agree.

For those that are laughing in the face of the possibilities, well....maybe they should just go do some reading and then decide if it is worth risking for the almighty "it will never happen here".

Thanks for your thread and the information you've supplied.

Meanwhile, this independent virologist posts a lot of articles and updates for Ebola. It's worth a look to see what he has dug up:
[link to fluboard.rhizalabs.com]

Here is one of the articles he has posted today:
[link to translate.google.com (secure)]

Looks like it is still TBD. If true, our worst fears have come to pass.
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 05:54 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Another link (2nd down)I found from the following site on a thread about whether or not Ebola has gone airborne:
[link to fluboard.rhizalabs.com]

Article about the emergence of the Zaire Ebola Virus:
[link to www.nejm.org]
windowlicker

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08/07/2014 06:11 PM

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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I'd just like to say that I'm amazed with all the attention this thread received. I hope it helped someone out there. Hopefully knowledge of how the hospital system works, and what the average capabilities of your average hospital are, this will better prepare you for any kind of emergency. Not just for a viral epidemic, but for other things as well.
 Quoting: Aravoth


Thank you for the time and effort you put in to sharing this information. It is oh so important and enlightening! When I think of the limitations in the current health system to handle even something such as a mass casualty scenario it's frightening. I foresee shortages of IV fluids pretty early on. Even now, there is a lack of fluids and Baxter imports from Spain to cover needs. As for blood products? Mass casualty scenarios already stress what supplies are available and we already don't have enough donors. Can you imagine what will happen when Ebola depletes what supplies there are when there are even fewer viable and healthy donors to tap in to?

Stay safe!

Last Edited by President Elect windowlicker on 08/07/2014 06:12 PM
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 06:32 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Even if this is true, this whole ebola thing should be a wake-up call to us all that we are ill-equipped to handle a pandemic.

ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man
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08/07/2014 07:26 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


Exactly.
There is 0.00% chance to Ebola to become a pandemic or to spread and kill too much people. The strain is weakening more and more once cross the African borders it behaves completely different. Its like this strain need the right conditions to be a mass killer. Outside the African territory is other story.
Galfeslaf

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08/07/2014 08:33 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


Exactly.
There is 0.00% chance to Ebola to become a pandemic or to spread and kill too much people. The strain is weakening more and more once cross the African borders it behaves completely different. Its like this strain need the right conditions to be a mass killer. Outside the African territory is other story.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34290394


They have crack in Puerto Rico?
Aravoth  (OP)

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08/07/2014 10:57 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


Exactly.
There is 0.00% chance to Ebola to become a pandemic or to spread and kill too much people. The strain is weakening more and more once cross the African borders it behaves completely different. Its like this strain need the right conditions to be a mass killer. Outside the African territory is other story.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34290394


Give it time to figure us out.
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 11:42 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
And again, all of this is based on traditional field triage methods. putting people in groups, and bringing the most serious cases in first. For a hospital, that means respiratory distress, and chest pain, period. I you are at that stage with Ebola, you won't even make it into the hospital. You would come in with a headache, fever, or sore throat, none of which are an emergency.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35282601


DING DING DING

This. This is what non-healthcare people don't seem to get, and it's the reason this virus is so damn scary to us.

Yes, Ebola can and often does lead to a horrific death like something out of a gore-porn film. But it starts with a headache and some aching. You have a headache and ache? Ok, you either are just achy and have a headache, or you have one of a million viruses. The first on that list isn't likely to be Ebola, so until a full-blown pandemic is in effect you will not be treated like you have Ebola.

My hospital went big. When they built their newest tower they put an iso room on each floor. Because of the expense of keeping those rooms inspected and the infrequency of their use as iso rooms (I think we've put ours in negative pressure twice, positive once in the two years I've been there), they have taken the expensive air exchanging systems for all but two of those offline. They're now just used as regular rooms with a little neato panel outside the door and a few extra vents in the room.


No one is scared of Ebola because it is killing less than a thousand people over in Africa. People are scared of Ebola because it is *infecting* thousands of people, and those people are living long enough to travel around, and THEN killing them. Yeah, Africa doesn't have a lot going for it in sanitation or healthcare but guess what? We have slums in our little westernized world too. I know, we're not supposed to acknowledge that. But that's where it would start, and from there who knows. People living right next to those slums are often your servers, cooks, baggers, stockers...

No one, not one single country, is equipped to handle this if it goes wide, and if you think otherwise you are a fool.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35992722


hesright
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 11:44 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


^^^^^this^^^^^
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44550379


So, the people that have already died just imagined ebola killed them?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8547422


Of course not. It's real just like the 36,000 that died in the USA last year of the flu. Am I going to panic and freak out like all the doomsters on these threads? Absolutely not.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44550379


So the regular flu is pure doom, but Ebola is no big deal? wtf
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2014 11:59 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I'm more interested in what OP didn't say so as to ascertain their motivations for this post. What does it actually accomplish other than spreading panic? How can it possibly help anyone reading it ? It induces an emotional response without offering any guidance. Fear porn plain and simple. OP is a Fear Shill.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 56222621


what was the purpose in going to school so you could learn to type that horseshit?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61252436


clappa
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2014 12:10 AM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Do you really think that if there was an Ebola outbreak that hospital will simply let someone with a fever and other such symptoms wait in the emergency room, and then wait for lab results to come back from the other side of the country?

I don't think so.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 60249311


You miss the point. The moment they enter the emergency room (well, actually the moment they start travelling to the emergency room), they will be infecting people. Sure, the hospital may isolate them - but it can't isolate them until they arrive and are seen to have symptoms. Even then, if it is busy - which ERs usually are - it won't happen immediately. And if there are many people turning up with symptoms, just where do you think they will put them?

Seriously, comments like yours, with all due respect, just show how people are not thinking about the realities.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064


Obamacare-fucked ERs are going to be the Hot Zones in every city. Damed if you do and dead if you don't
AZ40
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08/08/2014 12:36 AM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
I'd just like to say that I'm amazed with all the attention this thread received. I hope it helped someone out there. Hopefully knowledge of how the hospital system works, and what the average capabilities of your average hospital are, this will better prepare you for any kind of emergency. Not just for a viral epidemic, but for other things as well.
 Quoting: Aravoth



Yes, very helpful, thanks much, OP.
Aravoth  (OP)

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08/08/2014 09:55 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
If the current news coming out about all this is to be believed then it looks like we are even worse off than we previously thought.

Rumors now that more have been infected by Dr. Sawyer
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

and reports of a person in Canada showing symptoms.


Make no mistake, the international response to this has been dreadful. Nothing is contained, WHO even admitted that the official number of infected represents only a small percentage of those actually infected.


I said in this thread earlier, that once you see cases springing up in cities with major airports it could very well be going global.

Again, be aware of what I said in the beginning of this thread with regard to how the hospital system works.

Do not be one of those people that thinks the hospital can save them once things go bad.

This thing is getting scarier by the day.
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2014 10:18 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


And you know this how?

Please, Share your wisdom with us.

I'm all ears.

*Waiting*
geerod

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08/08/2014 10:22 PM

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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
some new info on keeping healthy against the Ebola virus.

stock up now fellow GLP'ers.

Link to website below:

[link to jimstonefreelance.com]
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2014 11:00 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
:greathread: Very informative ..anyone who has worked in the healthcare industry knows that what you said is the truth.
 Quoting: Abi ~


THIS^^^ On a half shell...
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2014 11:41 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Guys listen, this shit is scary. I get it, ok? I do. The human population of this world has always been kept in check by viruses, or some other method of sheer destruction. The Flu, Polio, Smallpox, you name it, these things have a purpose in nature. They keep populations under control.

Since the dawn of the industrial age we began to outsmart them all. We Vaccinate against the flu, we all but eradicated Polio in this country. We had beaten our enemies into near submission, and as a result, the worlds population has exploded. But our Genius is beginning to catch up with us. Anti-biotic resistant bacteria is on the rise, the flu is devising new ways to counter attack our defenses. And Ebola, well, lets just say it's doing what all viruses do. It's trying to survive, it's trying to find a way to use our own immune system against us. Think about this for a minute...

The Flu infects you, your body goes into defensive mode, realizing that it must expel the invader. So your own body fills your lungs with mucus and fluid, which forces you to cough. This is the real genius of the flu. It actually depends on your immune response to spread itself. And it doesn't have much time to do it either. Because your body begins to increase it's own temperature. Yes, having a fever is an immune response, not caused by the flu, rather it is literally your body attempting to make you so hot that the protein coat protecting the flu virus breaks down, allowing your white cells to attack.

This is what all viruses do. ALL of them. They find a way to exploit your natural immune responses to propagate themselves.

Ebola.... once just a hemorrhagic fever on steroids, now is a bona-fide menace. I work in a hospital laboratory at a major hospital in a major Metro Area. My wife works clinical micro for the same company. I'm very well versed in just about everything a STAT lab in a hospital can, and does do. My wife on the other hand, actually majored in micro, with emphasis on virology. So I wanted you all to know a few things about this outbreak that became apparent to us as it began to spread.

#1. Something has changed. This virus used to have a much shorter incubation period. And it would kill within a week. The mortality rate was much higher once upon a time. However, this is not the case anymore. Based on the sheer number of infected, the virus it seems, may have found a way to transmit itself easier. Typically when a virus "evolves" it gains in one area, while giving ground in another. It makes sense to me that Ebola gave up alot of it's lethality, for the ability to spread itself easier, and incubate much, much longer.

#2. Africa is a mess. There is no way to tell how many are infected. Once upon a time Ebola would strike a village and wipe everyone out, and that was it. It would kill so fast that it could not spread out of the hotzone. Because of what I said above that is not the case anymore. On a continent where borders still mean very little to the native population, it is a scary mix. Even if the CDC or the WHO wanted to get accurate numbers, it would be hopeless due to the unknown number or people that distrust western medicine, refuse to get help, or wander around from village to village. The infrastructure simply does not have the same capabilities we do in the west.

#3. Even in the United States, out of all the various hospitals I have worked at, there is no hope of containing anything like this. One of the largest hospitals I worked at only had two reverse flow isolation rooms. TWO, let that sink in for a minute. If this thing goes as bad as some think it will, we are, quite literally, screwed. Patients only show up to the hospital when they go symptomatic. So by the time they get there, they've already infected their entire family, their work group, and anyone they got within a few feet of on the way to the hospital. When they get there the ER nurses would treat it either like Flu, or Sepsis. But the whole time the patient is infecting all of them. And all of them, in turn, begin to infect everyone else in the exact same way. If this is as virulent as the WHO thinks it might be, by the time people realize what is going on, there will be more sick people than there would be beds available at every hospital in the US combined.

#4. Testing blood for anything is not as simple as looking under a microscope. And hospital labs are not set up for exotic virology. We run basic Chemistries, Cardiac enzymes, blood counts, sed rates, drug levels, bacterial cultures, all the basic hands on shit. The kind of things that old people usually present for, blood loss, infection, and cardiac events. Anything exotic gets sent out. Sometimes to the State lab, most of the time specimens get sent across the country to Quest Diagnostics, or to other organizations actually set up for it. Your average city hospital is pitifully, laughably, not ready for anything of this nature. Sure, running a CBC can tell if you are dehydrated, it can tell of you are loosing blood, it can tell if you are fighting "something" off. It just can't tell what. A sed rate can determine if you have excess inflammation, but it can't tell you why. A Lactic Acid level can indicate Sepsis, but it can't tell you from what. The point is, at the early stages of an outbreak, people will get treated for run of the mill things. Because nothing a hospital can test immediately will be able to tell anyone that you are carrying the most deadly hemorrhagic fever currently known. Honestly, if a person came into a busy ER with a fever, the triage nurse would put them in the waiting room until a non urgent room opened up in the back. They simply have no way to know who is carrying what.

I'm not saying we're all gonna die. This thing could fizzle out. And everything could be fine. What I am trying to illustrate here is that just because a lab exists in a hospital, does not mean that it can tell you everything. There are triage algorithms that work for everyday field medicine, but nothing for an outbreak. Thinking that living in a developed nation will curb the spread is ridiculous. If anything, it makes it worse. Our commute, our workplaces, our homes, our methods of entertainment, all of those things that we love so much about living in the the west, are the things that viruses depend on to spread.

If this virus truly has found a way to transmit easier, the healthcare system would be completely overloaded with something they simply can not handle.

Anyway, I'm not trying to scare anyone, I just hope people can be realistic about the capabilities of hospital containment, hospital laboratory testing, and the fact that the healthcare system, in ANY country, could not handle a massive outbreak.

So don't expect miracles from front line hospital staff, we don't have the tools, and we certainly do not have the manpower. Ask anyone in the medical field how much overtime they could work if they felt like it, don't even get me started on how thinly stretched people in the industry are. Though I suppose if this does turn into something, that will become apparent very, very fast.

Good luck, don't freak out, wash your hands, be prepared, hug your kids.

That is all.
 Quoting: Aravoth 35282601


You understand that Ebola is one of the largest (if not the largest) and therefor slowest to evolve viruses. For it to change so radically in such a short period of time is literally unheard of... They can compare Ebola samples from a few years ago to samples found in fossil's from millions of years ago... and guess what, the virus hardly changed at all. Yet we are to believe that in just the past ~1 year this virus has all of a sudden changed drastically (3% which might not sound like much but it is), making it have 3x the standard incubation period as well as being MUCH more easily transmittable then all other known strains of Ebola.

I guess my point is yes, something changed, but to assume it is natural is where you made your mistake. This thing is bioengineered... that is what changed, and it is far from natural.
 Quoting: TruthNow88


*Wondering if radiation could mutate a virus so radically...*
T-Man
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08/09/2014 08:22 AM

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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man


And you know this how?

Please, Share your wisdom with us.

I'm all ears.

*Waiting*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 33382770


Yea i dont really care to share common sense.
Just go ahead and panic for all i care.

For me this is nothing till someone around me dies from it.

(and you can keep all your wisdom around that comment. id rather live free than afraid like you people. death is the worst that could happen. and it happens to everyone. who cares. live a good life and you dont have to care about death. it could only be a shame)
Aravoth  (OP)

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08/09/2014 01:26 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Something else I've been noticing on various forums and discussion across the internet this morning that bears mentioning.

Many people following the story are making a very big mistake. Since news is sketchy at best regarding the spread of this virus people have taken it upon themselves to "track" it themselves. This is fine, it's normal, however, most people doing it are thinking about it all wrong.

The standard plot most people are seeing usually involves something like this.....

The disease started in country A, then spread to country B, then to C, Now on to Nigeria, D.

This is not what is happening. Outbreaks DO NOT follow a linear progression. There is no straight line connecting the dots. The pattern most people are seeing involves just that, A leads to B, leads to C and so on.

What people need to understand is that outbreaks do have a pattern, but it's a web, not a line. A does not lead to B. Rather A leads to B,G,J,Y,Z, and B leads to C,A,O,P,E,K. And all those letters in turn lead to 10 others.

For example. The man that flew to Nigeria, Sawyer. Now, I do not know what kind of plane he was on, or how many people were on it. But I keep seeing comments about how he infected two additional people on the plane. If there were only two other people on that plane, then yes, that would be a true statement.

But if he was flying commercial, and there were more than two other people on the plane, then he didn't infect two people, he exposed the entire aircraft and everyone in it. It's plausible that anyone on that flight could be infected.

Which begs the question, what about the rest of them? Was Lagos the last stop for everyone on the plane? Or was it simply a connecting flight for others? Was Sawyer the first infected person in Nigeria? Or did someone else already bring it in?

One person could theoretically infect hundreds. Hundreds of people, with their own schedules, different places to be, different vacation destinations, different jobs, etc. The point I'm making is this, if people start springing up with this in other countries, and it gets confirmed, it didn't just arrive, it's been there for a while, and the whole time it's been there it's still been spreading elsewhere.

If you want an idea of how this outbreak could progress and why it could happen all at once, Take a look at this picture
[link to spatial.ly]

That is the route it would take, all it needs to do is get on an airplane in an international airport and the possibility of a global outbreak increases dramatically.

Something to ponder.
Anonymous Coward
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08/09/2014 01:31 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
There I a CURE

Watch the Doc an sent it to 10 ppl amd them to do the Same!!
Thread: There IS a KNOWN cure!!! Nova documentary from Kitwit 1995!!!

We are on our own so lets erradiate this w knowledge of the realcure and how the Stoped the outbreak!
Sleeping One
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08/15/2014 09:35 AM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Yeah, it can't go on like that... that's the whole point.

How many hours do you expect the 'special team' to work before they are too tired, make mistakes, get infected, and either go home or drop dead themselves?

Do you think they will be replaced after their shift ends by automatons? Because no one else will be forthcoming, not with several dozen or several hundred patients crashing and bleeding out all over the floor, not to mention vomiting up black clotted blood until there's nothing left of them except black jelly and bones.

Read up about what's really involved with Ebola. Once someone presents with symptoms, it's horrific and few people are brave enough to hang around near it.

OP's point was just this; no hospital is ready for this any more than they are ready for any pandemic. If you're lucky, there will be people willing to go from house to house to pick up the dead, but don't count on that either.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61037425

So do you have any better idea ?

Maybe just do it the way it's been until now ?
Is that your solution ?

Now it is still possible to have those teams. If Ebola goes on, at some point not far in the future it will simply be impossible. That's all.
Anonymous Coward
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08/15/2014 09:52 AM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Something else I've been noticing on various forums and discussion across the internet this morning that bears mentioning.

Many people following the story are making a very big mistake. Since news is sketchy at best regarding the spread of this virus people have taken it upon themselves to "track" it themselves. This is fine, it's normal, however, most people doing it are thinking about it all wrong.

The standard plot most people are seeing usually involves something like this.....

The disease started in country A, then spread to country B, then to C, Now on to Nigeria, D.

This is not what is happening. Outbreaks DO NOT follow a linear progression. There is no straight line connecting the dots. The pattern most people are seeing involves just that, A leads to B, leads to C and so on.

What people need to understand is that outbreaks do have a pattern, but it's a web, not a line. A does not lead to B. Rather A leads to B,G,J,Y,Z, and B leads to C,A,O,P,E,K. And all those letters in turn lead to 10 others.

For example. The man that flew to Nigeria, Sawyer. Now, I do not know what kind of plane he was on, or how many people were on it. But I keep seeing comments about how he infected two additional people on the plane. If there were only two other people on that plane, then yes, that would be a true statement.

But if he was flying commercial, and there were more than two other people on the plane, then he didn't infect two people, he exposed the entire aircraft and everyone in it. It's plausible that anyone on that flight could be infected.

Which begs the question, what about the rest of them? Was Lagos the last stop for everyone on the plane? Or was it simply a connecting flight for others? Was Sawyer the first infected person in Nigeria? Or did someone else already bring it in?

One person could theoretically infect hundreds. Hundreds of people, with their own schedules, different places to be, different vacation destinations, different jobs, etc. The point I'm making is this, if people start springing up with this in other countries, and it gets confirmed, it didn't just arrive, it's been there for a while, and the whole time it's been there it's still been spreading elsewhere.

If you want an idea of how this outbreak could progress and why it could happen all at once, Take a look at this picture
[link to spatial.ly]

That is the route it would take, all it needs to do is get on an airplane in an international airport and the possibility of a global outbreak increases dramatically.

Something to ponder.
 Quoting: Aravoth


OP, you are one of the few people that seems to actually get what is going on. People are starting to slowly wake up to the seriousness of the threat, but I think it is already too late. The fact that we still have people saying things like 'how long will this take to contain?' and 'I will worry when there are a million dead' shows just how deluded most people are.
Anonymous Coward
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08/15/2014 09:54 AM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
And that flight route graphic only shows a handful of the major airlines. What would it look like if all scheduled flights, from all airlines, were added? Then there are all the charters too.
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08/16/2014 03:49 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
Epic thread OP.

Question: If this strain of the virus has evolved with a lessor mortality rate, does the weakened condition of the host present a "target rich" environment that more deadly strains of any number of other viri?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 9908226

Listen, you can't have your cake and eat it too, you know ?
Oh no, that would be too easy !
You have to make up your mind and choose one or the other.
But whose cake shall I eat if not my own, you ask ?
Not my problem !
And what shall I do with my cake if I can't eat it, you ask again ?
To which I reply again: not my problem !

But you do have to choose, because it's either "virii" or "viruses". No "viri" ! Viri is the plural of "vir" which means "man".
Aravoth  (OP)

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08/20/2014 04:48 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
With the current reports about Sacramento and Houston, what I aid in this thread is becoming more and more important. Please, if you haven't read this thread in it's entirety, do it now, it could help you along the way.
Botany girl

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08/20/2014 06:04 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
All,

I have a practical request.

Can you get a virologist, microbiologist, chemist or health care worker to get the correct dilution rate for standard household clorox? That is, a safe amount to ensure that the viral particles have been broken up?

E.g., The Clorox Company switched to selling its concentrated liquid version. The bottle states it's 8.25% sodium hypochlorite. For hostpital disinfection, it states 1/2 cup per gallon.

I assume most folks will have plastic gallon milk jugs, so using gallons as a standard calculation is preferred.

Should I go with 1/2 cup per gallon?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45799893


I have been wondering about bleach also and concentrations. I asked Clorox about what strength is recommended to kill ebola germs, this is the response I got:

"Hello, this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the bola virus. More information about the ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] I hope this information helps. Have a good day!"
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08/20/2014 06:29 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
If the death rate is a certain percentage - known rate. And there is a point in this illness it becomes obvious the patient will not recover - will there be options to mercy kill before the human being explodes blood and guts all over everyone?

Maybe that is just wrong to ask. But its like this, if I get it and I turn a corner with it where its not likely I am going to recover I want to be put down and not left to die from the progression of this stuff.

Is there a way they can determine you are making it through this stuff - as opposed to no hope.

What is the clinical profile of survivors, does anyone know?
Aravoth  (OP)

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08/20/2014 08:27 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
All,

I have a practical request.

Can you get a virologist, microbiologist, chemist or health care worker to get the correct dilution rate for standard household clorox? That is, a safe amount to ensure that the viral particles have been broken up?

E.g., The Clorox Company switched to selling its concentrated liquid version. The bottle states it's 8.25% sodium hypochlorite. For hostpital disinfection, it states 1/2 cup per gallon.

I assume most folks will have plastic gallon milk jugs, so using gallons as a standard calculation is preferred.

Should I go with 1/2 cup per gallon?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45799893


I have been wondering about bleach also and concentrations. I asked Clorox about what strength is recommended to kill ebola germs, this is the response I got:

"Hello, this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the bola virus. More information about the ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] I hope this information helps. Have a good day!"
 Quoting: Botany girl


I think the concern is the type of exposure. Contact precautions work well with things like c-diff, not so much with droplet precautions. Thats not to say that bleach won't kill ebola, but seriously it's not like everyone can carry a bottle of bleach everywhere they go and sanitize everything. And if someone sneezes on you, then what?
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09/11/2014 05:10 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
ebola will do nothing.
 Quoting: T-Man

Spanish flu, 1919 - 30 million dead worldwide...
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09/30/2014 03:51 PM
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Re: Ebola - A perspective you might need to hear.
And a bump for probably the most cognizant thread about ebola on the GLP. Folks, read it and understand the implications given. This is the reality if and/or when we have an outbreak here.

Thank you, OP.





GLP