EBOLA - Theoretical Rate of Infection 1.92 as per August 12, 2014 [ Updated for 1.795RO ] | |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 05:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I also wanted to see with this major spike in ROI between July and August (was 2.404) what that might look like if it's increasing the ROI. Mar, 2014 - Infected: 106 Dead: 65 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2014 - Infected: 203 Dead: 124 ROI: 1.92 May, 2014 - Infected: 389 Dead: 238 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2014 - Infected: 747 Dead: 457 ROI: 1.92 Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,435 Dead: 877 ROI: 1.92 Aug, 2014 - Infected: 3,450 Dead: 2,109 ROI: 2.4 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 8,293 Dead: 5,070 ROI: 2.4 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 19,938 Dead: 12,188 ROI: 2.4 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 47,930 Dead: 29,300 ROI: 2.4 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 115,224 Dead: 70,436 ROI: 2.4 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 276,997 Dead: 169,328 ROI: 2.4 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 665,902 Dead: 407,066 ROI: 2.4 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 1,600,828 Dead: 978,586 ROI: 2.4 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 3,848,389 Dead: 2,352,520 ROI: 2.4 May, 2015 - Infected: 9,251,528 Dead: 5,655,459 ROI: 2.4 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 22,240,673 Dead: 13,595,724 ROI: 2.4 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 53,466,578 Dead: 32,684,119 ROI: 2.4 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 128,533,655 Dead: 78,572,623 ROI: 2.4 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 308,994,906 Dead: 188,888,586 ROI: 2.4 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 742,823,754 Dead: 454,088,161 ROI: 2.4 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,785,748,304 Dead: 1,091,627,938 ROI: 2.4 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,292,938,923 Dead: 2,624,273,563 ROI: 2.4 Last Edited by YouAreDreaming on 09/17/2014 10:33 AM |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 53990064 United Kingdom 08/12/2014 06:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good work OP. I have a feeling that the numbers will be much higher now that the virus is spreading in more mobile, densely populated and more contact-intensive societies. Either way the numbers will be much, much higher than most people are imagining. This really is the 'calm before the storm.' |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 07:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good work OP. I have a feeling that the numbers will be much higher now that the virus is spreading in more mobile, densely populated and more contact-intensive societies. Either way the numbers will be much, much higher than most people are imagining. This really is the 'calm before the storm.' Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064 We are seeing a major spike between June and July's Rate of infection. I calculated them all based on the Wiki stats for more accuracy. March - July ROI: 2.404006678 May - June ROI: 1.938511327 April - May ROI: 1.326180258 March - April ROI: 2.043859649 |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 07:57 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is theoretical based on the statistical data that exists, of course things will likely change if this goes pandemic and governments respond hard to infection. The linear logorithm bases itself on the assumption that the rate of infection remains 1.92 based on the current average since the start of infection. I don't expect it to reach our entire population base so the numbers although very doomy have less reality to them as this grows. Airtravel will stop, people will change how they interact to prevent infection. Anything that brings down the ROI until burnout is the desired effect of containment and disease control. |
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Sam Fox 76 User ID: 60593132 United States 08/12/2014 08:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Op I am glad that you are better at Stat's than I am. We are just at the front of the bell curve. What do you think the max ROI could be based on that data? We know that these are just reported cases. I believe that the numbers are probably 50 to 100 times greater than what is being reported. |
Ag47 User ID: 61420839 United States 08/12/2014 08:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great threads, I wonder, at what point would the rate of infection decrease dramatically due to large swaths of population being wiped out and great distances between remaining densely populated areas? Seems the rate would spike in a huge way early on, once it begins to spread in a major metro area and gradually decrease from there? |
Nefarious Libertine User ID: 61015194 United States 08/12/2014 08:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good work OP. I have a feeling that the numbers will be much higher now that the virus is spreading in more mobile, densely populated and more contact-intensive societies. Either way the numbers will be much, much higher than most people are imagining. This really is the 'calm before the storm.' Quoting: Anonymous Coward 53990064 We are seeing a major spike between June and July's Rate of infection. I calculated them all based on the Wiki stats for more accuracy. March - July ROI: 2.404006678 May - June ROI: 1.938511327 April - May ROI: 1.326180258 March - April ROI: 2.043859649 Just wait until it really takes off in Lagos. 21 million people in a huge slum area. Then you will see a spike.Lagos is still in the very early stages. About another 2 months things should be very interesting over there. We do not learn from history because our studies are brief and prejudiced. In a surprising manner, 250 years emerges as the average length of national greatness. This average has not varied for 3,000years. The stages of the rise and fall of great nations seem to be: The Age of Pioneers , The Age of Conquests ,The Age of Commerce ,The Age of Affluence ,The Age of Intellect ,The Age of Decadence. Decadence is marked by: Defensiveness, Pessimism, Materialism,Frivolity An influx of foreigners The Welfare State A weakening of religion. Decadence is due to: Too long a period of wealth and power, Selfishness Love of money ,The loss of a sense of duty. The life histories of great states are amazingly similar, and are due to internal factors. Their falls are diverse, because they are largely the result of external causes. - Sir John Glubb The Fate of Empires We are at the end of the Age of Decadence heading into COLLAPSE |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Op I am glad that you are better at Stat's than I am. We are just at the front of the bell curve. What do you think the max ROI could be based on that data? We know that these are just reported cases. I believe that the numbers are probably 50 to 100 times greater than what is being reported. Quoting: Sam Fox 76 Well, the American that flew to Lagos Patrick Sawyer infected at least 10 cases that I am aware of, and quite possibly a lot more. Obviously the rate reflects itself based on how many available human vectors are in the vicinity of an infected person. The numbers can be quite alarming if this is airborne even at 3 feet. In a dense population base it would spread like a wild fire using humans as the fuel once it hits a critical mass. I'm hearing about more infections in France, the US, China and waiting to see what is going on in Mexico, Saudi Arabia and many other regions of suspected ebola. I do expect this to make some large jumps well past a rate of 1.92 or 2.04 if the population density is large enough. India for example, 1.2 billion people are at risk of rapid infection if it makes it's way into their filthy slums. We are watching in real time an unprecedented ebola outbreak never witness before in our history. This is a big event and is gaining momentum as per the Jun-Jul spike to 2.404 ROI vs 1.92 that's a big increase. |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great threads, I wonder, at what point would the rate of infection decrease dramatically due to large swaths of population being wiped out and great distances between remaining densely populated areas? Quoting: Ag47 Seems the rate would spike in a huge way early on, once it begins to spread in a major metro area and gradually decrease from there? I agree with you, it will have some periods of critical mass infecting massive numbers in dense populations if not contained. We can only wait and see and update the statistics and predictions based on reported data. If we speculate these numbers we are seeing right now could be 1.75 times larger as they are saying only 25% of the actual cases are known. |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Just wait until it really takes off in Lagos. 21 million people in a huge slum area. Then you will see a spike.Lagos is still in the very early stages. About another 2 months things should be very interesting over there. Quoting: YouAreDreaming It can be explosive in dense populations like you say... this is the early stages and the above predictions are statistical only thus no doubt if at this current rate we will start seeing some big numbers in a couple of months. I expect in many large centers of the world as well, it's not Africa's problem anymore. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 61293100 United States 08/12/2014 08:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's an updated calculation. I used the statistical data on the Ebola 2014 Wiki page to refactor the death rate and rate of infection based on actual statistical data. Quoting: YouAreDreaming Average Death Rate: 0.611 Average Rate of Infection: 1.928 Mar, 2014 - Infected: 106 Dead: 65 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2014 - Infected: 203 Dead: 124 ROI: 1.92 May, 2014 - Infected: 389 Dead: 238 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2014 - Infected: 747 Dead: 457 ROI: 1.92 Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,435 Dead: 877 ROI: 1.92 Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,755 Dead: 1,684 ROI: 1.92 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 5,290 Dead: 3,234 ROI: 1.92 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 10,157 Dead: 6,209 ROI: 1.92 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 19,502 Dead: 11,921 ROI: 1.92 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 37,443 Dead: 22,889 ROI: 1.92 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 71,891 Dead: 43,947 ROI: 1.92 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 138,031 Dead: 84,379 ROI: 1.92 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 265,020 Dead: 162,007 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 508,838 Dead: 311,053 ROI: 1.92 May, 2015 - Infected: 976,970 Dead: 597,222 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,875,782 Dead: 1,146,665 ROI: 1.92 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 3,601,501 Dead: 2,201,598 ROI: 1.92 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 6,914,883 Dead: 4,227,068 ROI: 1.92 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 13,276,574 Dead: 8,115,970 ROI: 1.92 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 25,491,023 Dead: 15,582,662 ROI: 1.92 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 48,942,764 Dead: 29,918,712 ROI: 1.92 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 93,970,107 Dead: 57,443,926 ROI: 1.92 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 180,422,605 Dead: 110,292,339 ROI: 1.92 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 346,411,402 Dead: 211,761,290 ROI: 1.92 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 665,109,892 Dead: 406,581,677 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 1,277,010,993 Dead: 780,636,820 ROI: 1.92 May, 2016 - Infected: 2,451,861,106 Dead: 1,498,822,694 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2016 - Infected: 4,707,573,324 Dead: 2,877,739,573 ROI: 1.92 Data from Wiki used to recalculate the numbers. [link to en.wikipedia.org] 9-Aug-14 1848 1013 0.548160173 6-Aug-14 1779 961 0.540191119 4-Aug-14 1711 932 0.544710695 1-Aug-14 1603 887 0.553337492 30-Jul-14 1440 826 0.573611111 2.404006678 27-Jul-14 1323 729 0.551020408 23-Jul-14 1201 672 0.559533722 20-Jul-14 1093 660 0.603842635 18-Jul-14 1048 632 0.603053435 15-Jul-14 964 603 0.625518672 10-Jul-14 888 539 0.606981982 8-Jul-14 844 518 0.613744076 2-Jul-14 759 467 0.615283267 24-Jun-14 599 338 0.56427379 1.938511327 18-Jun-14 528 337 0.638257576 10-Jun-14 474 252 0.53164557 5-Jun-14 438 231 0.52739726 2-Jun-14 354 208 0.587570621 27-May-14 309 200 0.647249191 1.326180258 23-May-14 270 181 0.67037037 14-May-14 245 164 0.669387755 5-May-14 243 162 0.666666667 30-Apr-14 233 153 0.656652361 2.043859649 23-Apr-14 220 143 0.65 21-Apr-14 215 136 0.63255814 17-Apr-14 209 129 0.61722488 10-Apr-14 169 108 0.639053254 7-Apr-14 163 102 0.625766871 2-Apr-14 135 88 0.651851852 1-Apr-14 130 82 0.630769231 31-Mar-14 114 70 0.614035088 27-Mar-14 103 66 0.640776699 26-Mar-14 86 60 0.697674419 25-Mar-14 86 59 0.686046512 Continued from: Thread: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly. as I didn't log in so can't update the first page. Other threads of important tracking this outbreak: Experimental Serum fails to save priest: Thread: Experimental Drug - ZMAPP - For EBOLA FAILS - Priest Dies! Speculation France has several cases: Thread: France deputy "There are several cases of Ebola in France right now" The important outbreak map to see where this is spreading. [link to healthmap.org] gonna be a lot faster than that.... especially since it's airborne. i guess since they are playing on the lie that it's not airborne, these statistics would make sense. |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | This ebola outbreak rings of global doom... never seen anything like this with this type of a disease. Scary to know that it can now strike anyone, anywhere in the world. Maybe you get some money handled by an infected person, or sit on a plane or bus and pick it up. It's really eerie because it's moving rapidly without restrictions now that it breached into airports and cities. |
Mr Brown User ID: 43655454 Canada 08/12/2014 08:32 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Anybody also think FEMA is happy to finally have a reason to do it's "thing" [link to rationalwiki.org] PS, kudos to you op, i'm liking those statistics...(well not liking but you know what i mean) Doom On!! |
YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | gonna be a lot faster than that.... especially since it's airborne. i guess since they are playing on the lie that it's not airborne, these statistics would make sense. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 61293100 Yes, ever since Patrick Sawyer flew to Lagos... pandora's box has been opened. At least with statistical data we can make predictions and adjust the predictions accordingly with real-world data, if we are being lied to, covered up.. the numbers can be far greater which itself is a nightmare scenario. A virulent strain of ariborne ebola like we are suspecting with this one, quite possibly a deliberately released bioweapon is what used to be the works of horror fiction and is now becoming a reality. Unlike a movie, you are the active player in this unfolding drama. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 52154903 United States 08/12/2014 08:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You need to adjust your data for the ebbs and flows of the disease once it passes "breakout" (not there yet The linked chart indicates that for the Spanish Flue deaths came in a clear 3 wave cycle of 18 weeks peak to peak. For the Spanish Flu the incubation period is reported to have been 2 to 7 days, with a skew to the longer side. In this Ebola event the incubation period is reported to be 7 to 21 days, with a skew to the longer side. Because of the longer incubation period one should lengthen the data from the Spanish Flu somewhere in the range of 2x to 4x, with 3x being the idealized lengthening (imo). Based upon a 3x lengthening of the data from the Spanish Flu that would indicate 54 weeks peak to peak for the 3 peak cycle of deaths ... and about 5 to 6 years from when it begins to run until it is over with. When "breakout" occurs the disease may well go above the infection RO rate that is indicated at the moment by it's STEADY expansion, (and then will decline somewhat before it begins it's next ramp up). [link to images2.dailykos.com] |
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Boatdrunk User ID: 60647644 United States 08/12/2014 08:38 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's an updated calculation. I used the statistical data on the Ebola 2014 Wiki page to refactor the death rate and rate of infection based on actual statistical data. Quoting: YouAreDreaming Average Death Rate: 0.611 Average Rate of Infection: 1.928 Mar, 2014 - Infected: 106 Dead: 65 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2014 - Infected: 203 Dead: 124 ROI: 1.92 May, 2014 - Infected: 389 Dead: 238 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2014 - Infected: 747 Dead: 457 ROI: 1.92 Jul, 2014 - Infected: 1,435 Dead: 877 ROI: 1.92 Aug, 2014 - Infected: 2,755 Dead: 1,684 ROI: 1.92 Sep, 2014 - Infected: 5,290 Dead: 3,234 ROI: 1.92 Oct, 2014 - Infected: 10,157 Dead: 6,209 ROI: 1.92 Nov, 2014 - Infected: 19,502 Dead: 11,921 ROI: 1.92 Dec, 2014 - Infected: 37,443 Dead: 22,889 ROI: 1.92 Jan, 2015 - Infected: 71,891 Dead: 43,947 ROI: 1.92 Feb, 2015 - Infected: 138,031 Dead: 84,379 ROI: 1.92 Mar, 2015 - Infected: 265,020 Dead: 162,007 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2015 - Infected: 508,838 Dead: 311,053 ROI: 1.92 May, 2015 - Infected: 976,970 Dead: 597,222 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2015 - Infected: 1,875,782 Dead: 1,146,665 ROI: 1.92 Jul, 2015 - Infected: 3,601,501 Dead: 2,201,598 ROI: 1.92 Aug, 2015 - Infected: 6,914,883 Dead: 4,227,068 ROI: 1.92 Sep, 2015 - Infected: 13,276,574 Dead: 8,115,970 ROI: 1.92 Oct, 2015 - Infected: 25,491,023 Dead: 15,582,662 ROI: 1.92 Nov, 2015 - Infected: 48,942,764 Dead: 29,918,712 ROI: 1.92 Dec, 2015 - Infected: 93,970,107 Dead: 57,443,926 ROI: 1.92 Jan, 2016 - Infected: 180,422,605 Dead: 110,292,339 ROI: 1.92 Feb, 2016 - Infected: 346,411,402 Dead: 211,761,290 ROI: 1.92 Mar, 2016 - Infected: 665,109,892 Dead: 406,581,677 ROI: 1.92 Apr, 2016 - Infected: 1,277,010,993 Dead: 780,636,820 ROI: 1.92 May, 2016 - Infected: 2,451,861,106 Dead: 1,498,822,694 ROI: 1.92 Jun, 2016 - Infected: 4,707,573,324 Dead: 2,877,739,573 ROI: 1.92 Data from Wiki used to recalculate the numbers. [link to en.wikipedia.org] 9-Aug-14 1848 1013 0.548160173 6-Aug-14 1779 961 0.540191119 4-Aug-14 1711 932 0.544710695 1-Aug-14 1603 887 0.553337492 30-Jul-14 1440 826 0.573611111 2.404006678 27-Jul-14 1323 729 0.551020408 23-Jul-14 1201 672 0.559533722 20-Jul-14 1093 660 0.603842635 18-Jul-14 1048 632 0.603053435 15-Jul-14 964 603 0.625518672 10-Jul-14 888 539 0.606981982 8-Jul-14 844 518 0.613744076 2-Jul-14 759 467 0.615283267 24-Jun-14 599 338 0.56427379 1.938511327 18-Jun-14 528 337 0.638257576 10-Jun-14 474 252 0.53164557 5-Jun-14 438 231 0.52739726 2-Jun-14 354 208 0.587570621 27-May-14 309 200 0.647249191 1.326180258 23-May-14 270 181 0.67037037 14-May-14 245 164 0.669387755 5-May-14 243 162 0.666666667 30-Apr-14 233 153 0.656652361 2.043859649 23-Apr-14 220 143 0.65 21-Apr-14 215 136 0.63255814 17-Apr-14 209 129 0.61722488 10-Apr-14 169 108 0.639053254 7-Apr-14 163 102 0.625766871 2-Apr-14 135 88 0.651851852 1-Apr-14 130 82 0.630769231 31-Mar-14 114 70 0.614035088 27-Mar-14 103 66 0.640776699 26-Mar-14 86 60 0.697674419 25-Mar-14 86 59 0.686046512 Continued from: Thread: Theoretical Ebola spread and death based on 1.86 infection rate monthly. as I didn't log in so can't update the first page. Other threads of important tracking this outbreak: Experimental Serum fails to save priest: Thread: Experimental Drug - ZMAPP - For EBOLA FAILS - Priest Dies! Speculation France has several cases: Thread: France deputy "There are several cases of Ebola in France right now" The important outbreak map to see where this is spreading. [link to healthmap.org] gonna be a lot faster than that.... especially since it's airborne. i guess since they are playing on the lie that it's not airborne, these statistics would make sense. What insect is abundant in every country that is relentlessly attracted to a rotting corpse? What insect has enough has enough body mass and folicals to carry an entire egg of a parasite to another potential host? What insect can find the only patch of bare skin on a clothed person? The common fly. America and other first world countries might take a hit but we don't leave bodies in the street (in the 50 years I've been around) and have screens. If this thing goes pure "airborne" all bets are off. But for now, let's keep an eye on Lagos. GET OFF MY LAWN! |
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YouAreDreaming (OP) User ID: 10503161 Canada 08/12/2014 08:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You need to adjust your data for the ebbs and flows of the disease once it passes "breakout" (not there yet Quoting: Anonymous Coward 52154903 The linked chart indicates that for the Spanish Flue deaths came in a clear 3 wave cycle of 18 weeks peak to peak. For the Spanish Flu the incubation period is reported to have been 2 to 7 days, with a skew to the longer side. In this Ebola event the incubation period is reported to be 7 to 21 days, with a skew to the longer side. Because of the longer incubation period one should lengthen the data from the Spanish Flu somewhere in the range of 2x to 4x, with 3x being the idealized lengthening (imo). Based upon a 3x lengthening of the data from the Spanish Flu that would indicate 54 weeks peak to peak for the 3 peak cycle of deaths ... and about 5 to 6 years from when it begins to run until it is over with. When "breakout" occurs the disease may well go above the infection RO rate that is indicated at the moment by it's STEADY expansion, (and then will decline somewhat before it begins it's next ramp up). [link to images2.dailykos.com] You are right, I was trying to find a population database by city but couldn't find one. What I want to do is factor in the number of flights per day, the probability of spread and see if I can get some probabilistic statistics based on what we know of Patrick Sawyer's numbers that were infected after he landed in Lagos. There will be peaks and die offs as it ebbs and flows, some of the peaks could be explosive numbers too. The 21 day incubation period and lack of treatment/cure makes this one hell of a risk to humanity. If it's not controlled or contained it could be a real long term problem that won't go away as easily as it has in the past. |
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