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Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492

 
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
"An intense seismic swarm is ongoing since yesterday morning (29 September) at Katla volcano. An intense pulse, the largest one if compared with the previous activity, started today at 12:02 (30 September) with several earthquakes around magnitude 3 or larger. No seismic tremor has been detected until now in the caldera. Due to the unusually high level of unrest at the Katla volcano we rise the aviation colour code from green to yellow.
Written by a specialist at 30 Sep 12:34 GMT"

[link to en.vedur.is]

Was that ash cloud map a simulation-did we find out?
 Quoting: Wedge5th


imho, she thinks it's gonna go tonight, and by 11pm too

[link to brunnur.vedur.is]

this is her link too. click IMO_almannavarnir_09022016.pptx, and open the file up in Microsoft Powerpoint. It is a presentation of the volcanic hazards in Iceland.

scroll down to page 25, and you will see a VERY similar map to that one, depicting the ash cloud following the 1947 hekla eruption. that one went to THIRTY km high, for comparison.

game on.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


YOU, Sir, are a Gentleman AND a scholar! Many thanks!
 Quoting: Wedge5th


np. cheers.

basically, it looks like she is expecting a vei4 eruption, minimum. it is a very odd chart to go posting on the day of an intense uptick in activity.

also, IF this does blow tonight, look at tomorrow's jet stream...

[link to www.metcheck.com]

basically, it will drag it ALL down towards the UK and europe, before blowing it all back up north on sunday
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09/30/2016 01:12 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
the predicted plume on that image actually quite closely matches what the wind conditions WILL be like tonight

there are light winds, and no jet stream over it. Tomorrow, that all changes.
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09/30/2016 01:16 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
What is this? Simulation?

2016-09-30 23:00

[link to brunnur.vedur.is]
 Quoting: CoffeeTime


13:39 it was uploaded?

[link to brunnur.vedur.is]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


just so we get the timeline correct here, here are today's 'biggies', the EQs that are green stars on the katla map....

Friday
30.09.2016 12:13:25 63.614 -19.151 0.2 km 3.2 99.0 4.6 km NW of Hábunga
Friday
30.09.2016 12:10:55 63.619 -19.129 0.0 km 3.2 99.0 4.5 km NNW of Hábunga
Friday
30.09.2016 12:09:18 63.623 -19.105 0.0 km 3.6 99.0 4.8 km N of Hábunga
Friday
30.09.2016 12:07:37 63.620 -19.111 0.0 km 3.6 99.0 4.4 km N of Hábunga

so, those quakes occurred, and just about an hour and a half later, Sara had uploaded that 'simulation' to her files.

nice.

I like Sara.
Urður

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09/30/2016 01:20 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
From RUV

Series of powerful earthquakes are currently striking the area around the volcano Katla in southeastern Iceland. The earthquakes have been ongoing since yesterday morning. According to The Icelandic Meteorological Office the activity increased slightly shortly after 12 pm.
Around noon a few earthquakes about the size of 3 hit the area, but no volcanic unrest is visible. 

According to Kristín Jónsdóttir, earthquake hazards coordinator at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, scientists are baffled by the sudden bursts of earthquakes, which could mean a volcanic eruption in the Volcano, but she says it is too early to say. Katla is a very active volcano, with twenty eruptions documented between 930 and 1918, but it has not erupted violently since 1918.

Katla is one of the largest volcanoes in Iceland. It is situated to the north of Vík í Mýrdal and to the east of the smaller glacier Eyjafjallajökull.


In case of eruption, The Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management has issued the following guidelines for people in the area:

1. Please prepare to evacuate your home or place of work immediately. 

2. Quickly gather your family and ensure that your vehicle has a full tank of gasoline.

3. Make sure that all necessary medicines, personal identification, cash, valuables, important documents and jewelry are in your luggage. Keep in mind all necessary items to take care of toddlers and the elderly.

4. When leaving your home or place of residence, make sure to evaluate whether you need to shut off your power. Securely and tightly close all windows and doors.

5. Please note that any food items in refrigerators and freezers will most likely spoil if power is off.

6. Report to the emergency hotline one-one-two all those you are aware of and may live alone, need assistance due to age, sickness or handicap. Please give their full names and address.

7. If possible, please make room in your vehicle for those evacuating on foot.

8. Drive carefully as accidents will slow down evacuation.

10. Proceed to the nearest evacuation center and make sure to report for registration immediately once you arrive.

11. Pay close attention to information broadcasts in the media. RUV (Rás one and Rás two) is the broadcaster responsible for immediate transmission of relevant information on FM-frequencies and LW (long wave). Should you not be able to receive FM-radio, RUV is broadcast on long wave on 189 kilohertz and 208 kilohertz.

12. If you are in need of emergency assistance, please call the emergency hotline one-one-two. If you are unable to place a phone call, hang a large piece of cloth outside a window facing the nearest street, or on a fencepost. Emergency rescue teams will be sent as soon as possible to the affected area to make sure everyone has evacuated, and they will provide assistance if needed.

 

[link to www.ruv.is]

hiding

Last Edited by Urður on 09/30/2016 01:20 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Pollution warning


However, increased conductivity has been measured in Múlakvísl river, which originates in Mýrdalsjökull, as well as a high concentration of sulfuric dioxide and hydrogen sulphide.

Specialists from the Icelandic Met Office are putting up pollution detectors and people are warned against being in the vicinity of the river. The gases are likely related to the activity in Katla.



[link to icelandreview.com]
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09/30/2016 01:25 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
game on
Urður

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09/30/2016 01:33 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
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09/30/2016 01:53 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
A very good picture (wouldn't mind having a cabin there-if it weren't for the VOLCANO) after the mist lifted:

[link to www.livefromiceland.is]
Deplorable C4G3

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09/30/2016 01:58 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Time to deply R2D2!!
- It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men.
- The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil constitution, are worth defending against all hazards: And it is our duty to defend them against all attacks.
- Samuel Adams -

"When injustice becomes law resistance becomes duty."
- Thomas Jefferson -
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
[link to en.vedur.is]

looks like a wedge coming up?
Urður

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09/30/2016 02:07 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
BREAKING CIVIL PROTECTION UNCERTAINTY PHASE DECLARED

The National Commissioner of Police and the District Commissioner of Police in South Iceland have declared a Civil Protection Uncertainty phase due to seismic unrest in Katla volcano in Mýrdalsjökull. The contingency plan for an eruption in Mýrdalsjökull has been activated accordingly. Uncertainty phase means that a course of events has started that may lead to natural hazard in the near future. Monitoring, assessment, research and evaluation of the situation is increased. 
Increased seismic activity started on September 29 and is still ongoing. Following a meeting with the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection it is likely that the seismic activity is caused by magma movement within the Katla caldera.  Three most likely scenarios have been defined.
1 Seismic activity dies out with no further consequences
2. Glacial outburst flood, jökulhlaup, will emerge from the glacier due to a small eruption or emptying of cauldrons
3. Eruption starts in Katla Myrdalsjökull that will force its way through the 400 meter thick ice with glacial outburst floods and ash fall 
Accordingly a warning has been issued for travelers in the vicinity of Mýrdalsjökull Especially around glacial rivers.


 
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
when this thing goes your thread will be a legacy. All the links and info its like history leading up to the eruption. Hopefully it dies down but an eruption would be exciting but sad for some in iceland probably
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
BREAKING CIVIL PROTECTION UNCERTAINTY PHASE DECLARED

The National Commissioner of Police and the District Commissioner of Police in South Iceland have declared a Civil Protection Uncertainty phase due to seismic unrest in Katla volcano in Mýrdalsjökull. The contingency plan for an eruption in Mýrdalsjökull has been activated accordingly. Uncertainty phase means that a course of events has started that may lead to natural hazard in the near future. Monitoring, assessment, research and evaluation of the situation is increased. 
Increased seismic activity started on September 29 and is still ongoing. Following a meeting with the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection it is likely that the seismic activity is caused by magma movement within the Katla caldera.  Three most likely scenarios have been defined.
1 Seismic activity dies out with no further consequences
2. Glacial outburst flood, jökulhlaup, will emerge from the glacier due to a small eruption or emptying of cauldrons
3. Eruption starts in Katla Myrdalsjökull that will force its way through the 400 meter thick ice with glacial outburst floods and ash fall 
Accordingly a warning has been issued for travelers in the vicinity of Mýrdalsjökull Especially around glacial rivers.


 
 Quoting: Urður
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
 Quoting: Wubbo Ockels


[link to hraun.vedur.is]
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Uh-oh!!!

:hidetomato:
Urður

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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]

Last Edited by Urður on 09/30/2016 02:31 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


There are any danger relating this side of volcano?
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


'uncertainty' is never good. I reckon they know exactly what is happening though.

my thinking is the caldera structure itself is failing

is it crumbling, under the pressure of the ice above and the very shallow and constantly filling magma chamber below

today's quakes are creating what to me looks like a huge crack smack in the centre of the top of the glacier, where the thickest, heaviest ice is. Is it collapsing down the top of the caldera?
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Flight alert raised in Iceland after 'seismic swarm' hits Katla volcano


The Icelandic Met Office said: "Due to the unusually high level of unrest at the Katla volcano, we raise the aviation colour code from green to yellow."


[link to news.sky.com]
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


'uncertainty' is never good. I reckon they know exactly what is happening though.

my thinking is the caldera structure itself is failing

is it crumbling, under the pressure of the ice above and the very shallow and constantly filling magma chamber below

today's quakes are creating what to me looks like a huge crack smack in the centre of the top of the glacier, where the thickest, heaviest ice is. Is it collapsing down the top of the caldera?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


Well frighteningly, 400m ice sheet collapsing into a fissure or chamber of molten rock causes one mother of a bang.
Deplorable C4G3

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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


'uncertainty' is never good. I reckon they know exactly what is happening though.

my thinking is the caldera structure itself is failing

is it crumbling, under the pressure of the ice above and the very shallow and constantly filling magma chamber below

today's quakes are creating what to me looks like a huge crack smack in the centre of the top of the glacier, where the thickest, heaviest ice is. Is it collapsing down the top of the caldera?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


Well frighteningly, 400m ice sheet collapsing into a fissure or chamber of molten rock causes one mother of a bang.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72912774


popcorn
- It does not take a majority to prevail... but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men.
- The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil constitution, are worth defending against all hazards: And it is our duty to defend them against all attacks.
- Samuel Adams -

"When injustice becomes law resistance becomes duty."
- Thomas Jefferson -
Anonymous Coward
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


'uncertainty' is never good. I reckon they know exactly what is happening though.

my thinking is the caldera structure itself is failing

is it crumbling, under the pressure of the ice above and the very shallow and constantly filling magma chamber below

today's quakes are creating what to me looks like a huge crack smack in the centre of the top of the glacier, where the thickest, heaviest ice is. Is it collapsing down the top of the caldera?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


Well frighteningly, 400m ice sheet collapsing into a fissure or chamber of molten rock causes one mother of a bang.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72912774


Pillar2

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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
5a
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Down Under (Andrew - @Recretos) 30/09/2016 at 18:55
Interesting. First IMO states this: “No seismic tremor has been detected until now in the caldera.”, which means they have detected tremor signals, and then they later came to a conclusion: “Following a meeting with the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection it is likely that the seismic activity is caused by magma movement within the Katla caldera.”.

Obviously they know something more since they are specialists and have much more available data. But it does show that there is more at play than simple isostatic rebound, tho it had a large role overall in the large scale of things. Tho the specific nature of this particular swarm might be something else, esp. given the pulsating nature of the swarm with in-between pulse pause time being kinda dependant on the energy release of the previous peak.almost kinda like all the swarms in the past this year. Katla is boiling, be it literally or not, but there is likely a specific mechanism at play, or a multitude if it. Whatever it might be, it looks like it is either caysing strain and pressure of its own,or helping to release the already pent-up energy. I would rather go with option one. There is still an option that the excess strain is released and the Caldera goes into temporary equlibrium, with the emphasis on temporary.

Just my 2 un-educated cents…
[link to www.volcanocafe.org]
MsMc
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Irpsit 30/09/2016 at 14:49
I think that Katla is on the way to an eruption!
I am increasingly confident.

The shallow chamber already received several deep intrusions in previous months. Quakes are now above the top of the very shallow magma chamber, located around 2km below sea level. Magma is probably around 0.5km from the crustal surface.

I think the next thing to wait for is a very rapid sequence of events. A stronger earthquake swarm starts, and sudden high tremor follows. This is just a couple of hours until a flood occurs and a few more hours until a dark ash cloud appears above the ice cap, but by then the tremor has been already ongoing since a few hours. Perhaps anywhere 2-5 hours. Time is short however to warn tourists and locals.

In my opinion this build-up will not last longer than 4 weeks. If no eruption happens in October, then activity will die out.

I think authorities in Iceland already expected more an eruption rather than not. This is reflected in their preparatory meetings and behavior.

[link to www.jonfr.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


:bert:
 Quoting: Wubbo Ockels


wtfdoom
Wubbo Ockels

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09/30/2016 03:28 PM
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Ok..so there are numerous known geothermal spots inside Katla's caldera that are known as cauldrons.
What they are saying in the article below is that the area where these quakes are occuring, is not one of them. Hence they basically have no idea what exactly is going on.
Also..they say that this spot within the caldera is a part of Múlakvísl river so they would expect flooding to the east of Katla.

[link to www.mbl.is]
 Quoting: Urður


'uncertainty' is never good. I reckon they know exactly what is happening though.

my thinking is the caldera structure itself is failing

is it crumbling, under the pressure of the ice above and the very shallow and constantly filling magma chamber below

today's quakes are creating what to me looks like a huge crack smack in the centre of the top of the glacier, where the thickest, heaviest ice is. Is it collapsing down the top of the caldera?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 55317889


Well frighteningly, 400m ice sheet collapsing into a fissure or chamber of molten rock causes one mother of a bang.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 72912774



made me think of this post:
Thread: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492 (Page 1418)


.

Last Edited by Wubbo Ockels on 09/30/2016 03:29 PM
R.I.P. for the real Wubbo Ockels. He was a true icon of my country, and a great front-fighter for sustainable energie/technology and humanism.

"Yes, we have hurdles, we have distractions, we have disasters, personally and world-wide, and we do have to work it all out ourselves. BUT, there is a most amazing experience awaiting us on the other end of the finish-line.
The idea being, once we can handle it all down here, then we can live and explore eternally, responsibly, because we know what not to do, and not be resentful about being responsible, so we don't start a polarity domino effect in the other realms of existence."

"The Fraction" of Life can be increased in value not so much by increasing your Numerator as by lessening your Denominator. Nay, unless my Algebra deceive me, Unity itself divided by Zero will give Infinity."

Thread: LADIES & GENTLEMEN: I PRESENT to YOU OUR NEW SUN !!
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Gisli Olafsson ‏@gislio 1 hHá 1 hora San Francisco, CA
Scientists believe seismic activity in #Katla caused by magma movement under #volcano - not necessarily a sign of imminent eruption
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Dave McGarvie ‏@subglacial 5 hhá 5 horas
#Katla For the seismic crowd. Cumulative EQ strain of last 5 months already exceeds that of previous 12 months. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
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Re: Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492
Time to cue the web cam watchers?





GLP