Volcanic Iceland: Earthquake with magnitude M 5,2 in Þorbjörn mountain (Fagradalsfjall mountain)!!!p1492

kaBUMP!

Is he a volcano?

Huge spikes now, both in bardarbunga and askja! [link to hraun.vedur.is] [link to hraun.vedur.is]

Looks like it might be on the move again.....


Little continuous hickups at Askja again:

[link to hraun.vedur.is]

and loads of orange (2-3M) quakes showing up at [link to baering.github.io]

big kaBUMP happening

[link to strokkur.raunvis.hi.is]

Now, let us move on and talk about what type of an eruption will be most likely at this juncture in time. Remember that this might change as things evolve further.

The seismic activity decreases and the intrusion lose momentum and no eruption happens at this time. For every day this scenario becomes less likely. In the beginning most scientists stated that it was fifty/fifty that an eruption would happen. The chance of it not happening is now probably below ten percent chance.
A small sized eruption at Bárðarbunga central volcano. This is now a very unlikely scenario since the pressure is decreasing inside the caldera.
A large phreatic event in the caldera due to magma chamber collapse. This is an increasing risk as the roof of the magma chamber is currently lowering causing those large earthquakes noted in the caldera.
A small scale fissure eruption like the 1996 Gjálp. The risk for this has significantly decreased as things have moved on.
A medium sized prolonged rift episode like the Krafla Fires. This is currently the most likely scenario.
A large rifting fissure eruption. As time goes by the risk for this increases, currently I think the risk is around 10 percent. So, I guess it is time we start talking about this in the open and what it might entail. I once again recommend reading my series about the Skaftár Fires.
Rifting fissure eruption Let me be clear about what this is, it is about as large as an eruption is likely to be in this geological era. Only full scale trap formations and supereruptions are larger.

But let me start with why I think this is an option. Foremost the length of the fissure, at 40km it is definitely long enough to be able to sustain a large eruption. The fissure is also showing signs of having opened up down to the mantle at places, and that would mean that it is possible for rapid decompression melt to occur, and that is a necessity for a large rifting fissure eruption to access large enough quantities of magma.

Above I have touched on the worst case scenario. If that happens we will face temperature changes, ash and voluminous gas clouds. But one thing is certain, it would not in any way threaten life on earth, it would not even put a big hindrance on your daily life. Get real, the world will not end like this. But, expect a bit of nuisance.


we would have a LOT more than a 'bit of nuisance' if those bad scenarios Carl outlined there happened.

Can't believe he said that.

some of the things he outlined would be FAR worse than Laki, and at the moment, I'd take a Laki scenario, and that would be disastrous for us as it is

if the fissure IS extending down to the mantle,as he suggests is a possibility, holy shit!

mega fissure eruption, akin to a small traps style eruption

August 24 2014 10:39 PM 5.3 Europe Iceland South Kirkjubajarklaustur USGS-RSOE


got a 5.3 via

[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Sunday
24.08.2014 20:39:11 64.627 -17.360 2.9 km 4.5 99.0 8.1 km E of Bárðarbunga

Now this updated:

Sunday
24.08.2014 20:39:11 64.627 -17.360 2.9 km 4.5 99.0 8.1 km E of Bárðarbunga


However I am faily sure that is the bottom one of these

18,2 km ANA Kistufelli 3.1 40 minutes ago 1.4km 90.03%
11.4 A Kistufelli 2.3 40 minutes ago 1.1km 90.01%
10.5 ASA Bárðarbungu 2.8 44 minutes ago 1.1km 90.17%


Will have to wait and see though

5.7 NNV Kistufelli 2.7
2 hours ago
21.2km

Location on map

[link to hraun.vedur.is]

Just now according to [link to baering.github.io]


18,7 km ANA Kistufelli 2.4 7 minutes ago 3.3km 90.03%
18,6 km ANA Kistufelli 3.3 7 minutes ago 3.5km 90.03%
19,1 km ANA Kistufelli 2 8 minutes ago 2km 90.02%

It let me karma pin

Comments from elder English Geologist

Eysteinn Tryggvason:
Now the dynamic flow of Bárðarbunga come to the place where the blowout occurred Lava lílkega the late eighteenth century. Hopefully there is a complete search of the magma of the eruption site. "
Eysteinn Tryggvason "Obviously this is the best eruption site, but I wonder to have seen the hole lava mentioned in all the talk of soda linked Bárðarbunga certainly I had not fallen Bardarbunga in mind in connection with the blowout lava until kvikustreynið changed direction a few days defendant directly originates blowout lava field. "

[link to vulkan.blog.is]

Sunday
24.08.2014 21:20:26 64.856 -16.856 3.5 km 3.3 90.03 18.6 km ENE of Kistufell

PIN NOW.....Thank you

Mike Ross (@eruptionchaser) August 24, 2014 at 21:40
Carl, a masterly summary. A couple of points:

“The most surprising sign though is that this rifting fissure is not following a single fissure swarm. This is totally unsuspected behavior that nobody has even guessed at in their most feverish fantasies. The initial intrusion charged straight out of the Bárðarbunga fissure swam, passed barren land in between fissure swarms and connected with the Grimsvötn northern fissure swarm, followed that downstream and then once again changed trajectory and entered the fissure swarm of Askja.”

I think we have to reevaluate entirely what we *mean* by ‘fissure swarm’. In the past we have spoken glibly of such-and-such an eruption being an eruption on THIS particular fissure swarm, and therefore being an eruption of, or associated with, THAT central volcano. I don’t think that’s a valid bill of sale any more.

“This means that potentially the intrusion might be feeding on the 3 largest Icelandic volcanoes if the fissure evolves a bit more. If this actually happens all bets are off and we would be most likely talking about a rifting fissure eruption with explosive components.”

Likewise, I think we have to reevaluate what we mean by ‘central volcano’. I tend to suspect central volcanoes aren’t especially strongly related to rifting fissure events. I think ‘central volcanoes’ are what happens when the system is NOT in rifting fissure mode.

A more useful question is WHY central volcanoes exist in the Iceland fissure swarms, and WHY they exist WHERE they exist. I know this is being looked at now – George Walker has a model to explain this, Erik Klemetti told me. I haven’t looked in to this myself yet.

do you realise what they are saying here?

really mate.

Yes...

Carl August 24, 2014 at 21:44
I agree, we will have to start to look differently at the dynamics of the rifting fissure eruptions. At least north of the central volcanoes.
I have written previously about the central volcanoes and what they entail.

huge sheets of magma, shooting miles into the air, allied with bursts of plinean eruptions from big volcanoes, until the magma supply is exhausted, which could take years

what a bloody nuisance that would be

what live cam is best to look on now?

Sunday
24.08.2014 21:38:20 64.861 -16.851 4.5 km 3.1 90.03 19.1 km ENE of Kistufell Sunday
24.08.2014 21:29:07 64.939 -16.675 1.5 km 2.6 90.01 11.5 km SSW of Dreki
Sunday
24.08.2014 21:29:04 64.816 -15.990 1.1 km 3.1 90.01 13.5 km SSW of Kárahnjúkavirkjun

Considering all the anomalous activity there, I get the general sense that there are forces beneath this region which are much more powerful than previously estimated. Maybe this is quickly evolving toward a volcanic event beyond the expectations of any expert.