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EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?

 
cegipson
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08/18/2014 07:38 PM
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EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Hello GLP! Been stalking this board since I saw the Yahoo "Hacker" B.S. and I am now entirely obsessed with this site (mostly been following the ebola topics and the St Louis shindigs).


So I'm curious. I saw the Ebola "survival guide" but I'm wondering, as a stay at home mom in Utah, what precautions are NECESSARY to be taking RIGHT NOW? We are assuming ebola is already here, correct? Either way, should I be sanitizing my house top to bottom, and decontaminating things I bring in? What exactly should I be doing right now to protect me and my family (I have a 1 year old) from this virus that will surely be here? I'm especially worried about Utah, because of all of the LDS missionaries, I know that a large chunk of them do missions in Africa.

Any input is appreciated, Thanks GLP!

Last Edited by cgip on 08/18/2014 07:51 PM
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
MikeFun
Rockwell

User ID: 31046284
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08/18/2014 08:02 PM

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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
WHO appears to be falling off the curve in terms of reporting numbers. Everyone is still in the "nobody must know mode". But, shortly we may be entering the "everybody knows mode". If this all goes south you may need to shelter in place until things blow over for an interim. There may be multiple waves to this however.

Here's some thoughts:

Planning:
Start thinking about what rules you want to put in place for your house. Who gets in. Who gets out. Do you isolate from each other in the house.

Provisions:
Food- 3 month minimum for first wave
Water- need to find a sustainable source
Vitamins - emphasis on C&D

Health:
first aid kit
plastic sheets
duct tape
90 day supply of all meds you rely on
forehead reading thermometer
tylenol (specifically)
tyvek suit (booties, hood incl)
nitrile gloves
safety goggles
masks (range of possibilities here)
bleach or pool shock

Misc:
car gased up all the time
10 gallons of gas (with preservative)
a few extra tanks of propane for the grill
4 cords of wood for the fireplace

Hope that helps!
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." - George Bernard Shaw
Anonymous Coward
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08/18/2014 08:04 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Standing up for your rights against a tyrannical government!
cegipson  (OP)

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08/18/2014 08:06 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
WHO appears to be falling off the curve in terms of reporting numbers. Everyone is still in the "nobody must know mode". But, shortly we may be entering the "everybody knows mode". If this all goes south you may need to shelter in place until things blow over for an interim. There may be multiple waves to this however.

Here's some thoughts:

Planning:
Start thinking about what rules you want to put in place for your house. Who gets in. Who gets out. Do you isolate from each other in the house.

Provisions:
Food- 3 month minimum for first wave
Water- need to find a sustainable source
Vitamins - emphasis on C&D

Health:
first aid kit
plastic sheets
duct tape
90 day supply of all meds you rely on
forehead reading thermometer
tylenol (specifically)
tyvek suit (booties, hood incl)
nitrile gloves
safety goggles
masks (range of possibilities here)
bleach or pool shock

Misc:
car gased up all the time
10 gallons of gas (with preservative)
a few extra tanks of propane for the grill
4 cords of wood for the fireplace

Hope that helps!
 Quoting: MikeFun


applause

That is great :) Very realistic list. Now you mention WHO falling off the curve in reporting the numbers. Do you feel that this is because the numbers are actually slowing down? Or because they are trying even harder to keep us in the dark? I find it highly unlikely that the numbers would be slowing down, yet, as they've admitted that this won't even start to slow down until 6 months from now, and that's only if they take drastic measures now.
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
cegipson  (OP)

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United States
08/18/2014 08:08 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
We just bought a 1911 pistol yesterday, and took it out for a test run. We are no strangers to guns in this house. I am definitely stocking up 9mm for my Walther, and now some 45. We also have shotguns, a 243 and a 22 magnum. I heard that if they call for a "state of emergency" we won't be able to buy guns, and I felt we needed a 2nd home defense gun! Before it hits the fan!
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
Anonymous Coward
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08/18/2014 08:11 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
bump
Medic
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08/18/2014 08:11 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
WHO appears to be falling off the curve in terms of reporting numbers. Everyone is still in the "nobody must know mode". But, shortly we may be entering the "everybody knows mode". If this all goes south you may need to shelter in place until things blow over for an interim. There may be multiple waves to this however.

Here's some thoughts:

Planning:
Start thinking about what rules you want to put in place for your house. Who gets in. Who gets out. Do you isolate from each other in the house.

Provisions:
Food- 3 month minimum for first wave
Water- need to find a sustainable source
Vitamins - emphasis on C&D

Health:
first aid kit
plastic sheets
duct tape
90 day supply of all meds you rely on
forehead reading thermometer
tylenol (specifically)
tyvek suit (booties, hood incl)
nitrile gloves
safety goggles
masks (range of possibilities here)
bleach or pool shock

Misc:
car gased up all the time
10 gallons of gas (with preservative)
a few extra tanks of propane for the grill
4 cords of wood for the fireplace

Hope that helps!
 Quoting: MikeFun


Probably all good items for any emergency. I would say absolute minimum 40 days of food, but 3 months + is better...

I would however add the following advice, as to what you should do right now. "Don't worry, be happy", live your life to the fullest right now, you will be thankful for it if things get really bad later.

I personally believe that there is no immediate threat to anyone in North America unless you are extremely unlucky. I think this will develop over the next few months, and IF it is not brought under control by then, then the level of risk will start to climb...IMHO
Seeker of Truth
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08/18/2014 08:15 PM

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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Let go of fear until people in your town start dying. hf
'Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.' - Dr. Seuss
'love has no opposite as it is the divine solvent that ends duality.' - m'Lord
'Be the love that you are' -m'Lord
The amount of love and good feelings you have at the end of your life is equal to the love and good feelings you create during your life.- mine
Yes, the things that others think, say, or do will sometimes hurt you— until they do
not anymore.What will get you from here to there most quickly is total honesty—
being willing to assert, acknowledge, and declare exactly how you feel about a thing.
Say your truth—kindly, but fully and completely. Live your truth, gently, but totally
and consistently. Change your truth easily and quickly when your experience brings
you new clarity.-God

[link to youtu.be (secure)]
MikeFun
Rockwell

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08/18/2014 08:16 PM

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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
applause

That is great :) Very realistic list. Now you mention WHO falling off the curve in reporting the numbers. Do you feel that this is because the numbers are actually slowing down? Or because they are trying even harder to keep us in the dark? I find it highly unlikely that the numbers would be slowing down, yet, as they've admitted that this won't even start to slow down until 6 months from now, and that's only if they take drastic measures now.
 Quoting: cegipson


They're slow to report today's number's. MSF is warning that actual numbers should be 4X to 10X what WHO is reporting. Medical workers have stopped showing up. Foreign workers have left. Infected patients are scattering. There's likely no credible basis for the reported numbers anymore.
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." - George Bernard Shaw
Botany girl

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08/18/2014 08:17 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
I am watching this thread to see what others thoughts are on this as well. I, myself took my mom to a dr appt today in a building next to the hospital and when she came back to the car, I had her wash her hands with Hibicleans and rinsed her hands with water. I also used antibacterial wipes to wipe her bag and shoes. I watched a lady in her car having a drink and sandwich from Starbucks (across the street)while we waited. She used antibacterial wipes on her hands, steering wheel and door handle, then she ate her sandwich while holding it with the wrap. She wasn't a hospital employee - first person I have seen being so careful of her hands being clean. I also asked a question on the Clorox site about what strength bleach kills the ebola germs and they response today, here is their response:


"Clorox Hello,this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product that is registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the Ebola virus. More information about the Ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] . I hope this information helps. Have a good day!

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC
www.cdc.gov
Information on Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola HF). Provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

I think you should be making sure everyone washes their hands as soon as they come in the house- warm/hot water, soap, maybe alcohol? Leave your shoes outside or in the garage. Don't touch your face, etc while you are out. I have hibiclens and a jug of water in my car and wash my hands at the car. If you hear of a case in your area, then I would really think of where you go and what you touch.
cegipson  (OP)

User ID: 53598041
United States
08/18/2014 08:18 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
WHO appears to be falling off the curve in terms of reporting numbers. Everyone is still in the "nobody must know mode". But, shortly we may be entering the "everybody knows mode". If this all goes south you may need to shelter in place until things blow over for an interim. There may be multiple waves to this however.

Here's some thoughts:

Planning:
Start thinking about what rules you want to put in place for your house. Who gets in. Who gets out. Do you isolate from each other in the house.

Provisions:
Food- 3 month minimum for first wave
Water- need to find a sustainable source
Vitamins - emphasis on C&D

Health:
first aid kit
plastic sheets
duct tape
90 day supply of all meds you rely on
forehead reading thermometer
tylenol (specifically)
tyvek suit (booties, hood incl)
nitrile gloves
safety goggles
masks (range of possibilities here)
bleach or pool shock

Misc:
car gased up all the time
10 gallons of gas (with preservative)
a few extra tanks of propane for the grill
4 cords of wood for the fireplace

Hope that helps!
 Quoting: MikeFun


Probably all good items for any emergency. I would say absolute minimum 40 days of food, but 3 months + is better...

I would however add the following advice, as to what you should do right now. "Don't worry, be happy", live your life to the fullest right now, you will be thankful for it if things get really bad later.

I personally believe that there is no immediate threat to anyone in North America unless you are extremely unlucky. I think this will develop over the next few months, and IF it is not brought under control by then, then the level of risk will start to climb...IMHO
 Quoting: Medic 25033107


I love this. Yes, true, I am definitely still enjoying myself and getting out of the house. Really I was hoping to get some insight as to how much of a threat ebola in the US is right now. I'm on my toes, keeping my eyes and ears open, but still living life generally normal right now.

Going to start stock-piling and keep up on target practice. :)
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
Medic
User ID: 25033107
Canada
08/18/2014 08:18 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Let go of fear until people in your town start dying. hf
 Quoting: Seeker of Truth


clappa
cegipson  (OP)

User ID: 53598041
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08/18/2014 08:19 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
applause

That is great :) Very realistic list. Now you mention WHO falling off the curve in reporting the numbers. Do you feel that this is because the numbers are actually slowing down? Or because they are trying even harder to keep us in the dark? I find it highly unlikely that the numbers would be slowing down, yet, as they've admitted that this won't even start to slow down until 6 months from now, and that's only if they take drastic measures now.
 Quoting: cegipson


They're slow to report today's number's. MSF is warning that actual numbers should be 4X to 10X what WHO is reporting. Medical workers have stopped showing up. Foreign workers have left. Infected patients are scattering. There's likely no credible basis for the reported numbers anymore.
 Quoting: MikeFun


THIS is why I am so scared. just from what they've ALLOWED us to see and know, it's scary. So to think of the things they AREN'T allowing us to see and hear, it's terrifying. Like I said, I'm still just trying to keep my cool in general, but in the back of my mind, I have not left GLP in the last 3 days, and all I can think about is prepping. LOL I'm terrified, and rightly so.
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
cegipson  (OP)

User ID: 53598041
United States
08/18/2014 08:22 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
I am watching this thread to see what others thoughts are on this as well. I, myself took my mom to a dr appt today in a building next to the hospital and when she came back to the car, I had her wash her hands with Hibicleans and rinsed her hands with water. I also used antibacterial wipes to wipe her bag and shoes. I watched a lady in her car having a drink and sandwich from Starbucks (across the street)while we waited. She used antibacterial wipes on her hands, steering wheel and door handle, then she ate her sandwich while holding it with the wrap. She wasn't a hospital employee - first person I have seen being so careful of her hands being clean. I also asked a question on the Clorox site about what strength bleach kills the ebola germs and they response today, here is their response:


"Clorox Hello,this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product that is registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the Ebola virus. More information about the Ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] . I hope this information helps. Have a good day!

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC
www.cdc.gov
Information on Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola HF). Provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

I think you should be making sure everyone washes their hands as soon as they come in the house- warm/hot water, soap, maybe alcohol? Leave your shoes outside or in the garage. Don't touch your face, etc while you are out. I have hibiclens and a jug of water in my car and wash my hands at the car. If you hear of a case in your area, then I would really think of where you go and what you touch.
 Quoting: Botany girl


Really appreciate all of this insight, and it's good to know there are people out there being extra careful already. I just bought quite a few Lysol products from the store, hand sanitizer, clearner, bleach, etc. Funny enough, I worked at a Laboratory here in Utah called ARUP Laboratories, in the VIROLOGY department HAH! So I am pretty much programmed to keep up with the clean hands, no touching face, etc protocols.

I just have a really bad feeling about the next few weeks!
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
MikeFun
Rockwell

User ID: 31046284
United States
08/18/2014 08:28 PM

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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Let go of fear until people in your town start dying. hf
 Quoting: Seeker of Truth


Agreed, and letting go of fear is easier when you have made some modest preparations.
"All great truths begin as blasphemies." - George Bernard Shaw
Medic
User ID: 25033107
Canada
08/18/2014 08:34 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Well cegipson (OP).. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, not even the people with access to all of the information.

I have not found a single credible report of a confirmed case of Ebola contracted anywhere outside of Africa at this point.. Not on social media, forums, twitter, Google,YouTube the news etc... I would not be shocked to find out it was being suppressed, but I don't expect it would be necessary at this point.

Based on the available information, realistic spread of the virus, and the history of the epidemic to date, I would estimate it will not infect a million people until about Christmas. Even if it were currently in the united states, it would take several months to infect enough people, that you would be at any significant risk of being infected. You are much likely to be struck by lightning right now, and probably for the next few months.

Basically this is something to watch. It will more than likely begin to take a serious toll on Africa first, and infect less diligent countries on a small scale. There will likely only be a handful of cases in the developed world for the first several months, and the official CDC line probably isn't that far from the truth right now.

The concern is not being able to contain it. Ebola is not a particularly fast spreading disease, but without perfect quarantine, which has never been managed in the modern era on a large scale... its spread is inevitable unless we develop an effective cure or vaccine... Any reproductive number greater than 1 will EVENTUALLY spell doom...

Through the start of this outbreak in March research data showed the basic reproductive number to be about 2.7 with the intervention that was going on. That means every infected person infects 2.7 more in about a 3 week period. Keep in mind, they have actually been fighting a losing battle for months...

Right now the reproductive number is likely a lot higher, but it is generally thought that it would go down in a first world country... The growth is currently exponential, so it's CERTAINLY a real concern until it is brought under control... But likely it would take at least a year to spread through the Human population, and very possibly 2 or 3 or never if we are fighting it...
Kezar Stanyan

User ID: 59847208
United States
08/18/2014 08:35 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
WHO appears to be falling off the curve in terms of reporting numbers. Everyone is still in the "nobody must know mode". But, shortly we may be entering the "everybody knows mode". If this all goes south you may need to shelter in place until things blow over for an interim. There may be multiple waves to this however.

Here's some thoughts:

Planning:
Start thinking about what rules you want to put in place for your house. Who gets in. Who gets out. Do you isolate from each other in the house.

Provisions:
Food- 3 month minimum for first wave
Water- need to find a sustainable source
Vitamins - emphasis on C&D

Health:
first aid kit
plastic sheets
duct tape
90 day supply of all meds you rely on
forehead reading thermometer
tylenol (specifically)
tyvek suit (booties, hood incl)
nitrile gloves
safety goggles
masks (range of possibilities here)
bleach or pool shock

Misc:
car gased up all the time
10 gallons of gas (with preservative)
a few extra tanks of propane for the grill
4 cords of wood for the fireplace

Hope that helps!
 Quoting: MikeFun


hesright
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.” - Frank Herbert

For I am not ashamed of the gospel, because it is the power of God that brings salvation to everyone who believes: first to the blah, then to the Gentile. For in the gospel the righteousness of God is revealed—a righteousness that is by faith from first to last, just as it is written: “The righteous will live by faith.” Romans 1:16-17

You can't defend your home with an iPod, gaming console, or nabi.
cegipson  (OP)

User ID: 53598041
United States
08/18/2014 08:43 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Well cegipson (OP).. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, not even the people with access to all of the information.

I have not found a single credible report of a confirmed case of Ebola contracted anywhere outside of Africa at this point.. Not on social media, forums, twitter, Google,YouTube the news etc... I would not be shocked to find out it was being suppressed, but I don't expect it would be necessary at this point.

Based on the available information, realistic spread of the virus, and the history of the epidemic to date, I would estimate it will not infect a million people until about Christmas. Even if it were currently in the united states, it would take several months to infect enough people, that you would be at any significant risk of being infected. You are much likely to be struck by lightning right now, and probably for the next few months.

Basically this is something to watch. It will more than likely begin to take a serious toll on Africa first, and infect less diligent countries on a small scale. There will likely only be a handful of cases in the developed world for the first several months, and the official CDC line probably isn't that far from the truth right now.

The concern is not being able to contain it. Ebola is not a particularly fast spreading disease, but without perfect quarantine, which has never been managed in the modern era on a large scale... its spread is inevitable unless we develop an effective cure or vaccine... Any reproductive number greater than 1 will EVENTUALLY spell doom...

Through the start of this outbreak in March research data showed the basic reproductive number to be about 2.7 with the intervention that was going on. That means every infected person infects 2.7 more in about a 3 week period. Keep in mind, they have actually been fighting a losing battle for months...

Right now the reproductive number is likely a lot higher, but it is generally thought that it would go down in a first world country... The growth is currently exponential, so it's CERTAINLY a real concern until it is brought under control... But likely it would take at least a year to spread through the Human population, and very possibly 2 or 3 or never if we are fighting it...
 Quoting: Medic 25033107


Thanks for putting it into perspective a little. It's easy to get carried away and jump at the worst case scenario ideas.
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
Anonymous Coward
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08/18/2014 08:46 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
bump You should be prepared for ANY type emergency.
Medic
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08/18/2014 08:49 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
bump You should be prepared for ANY type emergency.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24518639


clappa
cegipson  (OP)

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08/18/2014 08:50 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Unfortunately, I think there are a lot of people who are not prepared. Myself included. Hence this thread :)
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
Kezar Stanyan

User ID: 59847208
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08/18/2014 08:51 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Well cegipson (OP).. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, not even the people with access to all of the information.

I have not found a single credible report of a confirmed case of Ebola contracted anywhere outside of Africa at this point.. Not on social media, forums, twitter, Google,YouTube the news etc... I would not be shocked to find out it was being suppressed, but I don't expect it would be necessary at this point.

Based on the available information, realistic spread of the virus, and the history of the epidemic to date, I would estimate it will not infect a million people until about Christmas. Even if it were currently in the united states, it would take several months to infect enough people, that you would be at any significant risk of being infected. You are much likely to be struck by lightning right now, and probably for the next few months.

Basically this is something to watch. It will more than likely begin to take a serious toll on Africa first, and infect less diligent countries on a small scale. There will likely only be a handful of cases in the developed world for the first several months, and the official CDC line probably isn't that far from the truth right now.

The concern is not being able to contain it. Ebola is not a particularly fast spreading disease, but without perfect quarantine, which has never been managed in the modern era on a large scale... its spread is inevitable unless we develop an effective cure or vaccine... Any reproductive number greater than 1 will EVENTUALLY spell doom...

Through the start of this outbreak in March research data showed the basic reproductive number to be about 2.7 with the intervention that was going on. That means every infected person infects 2.7 more in about a 3 week period. Keep in mind, they have actually been fighting a losing battle for months...

Right now the reproductive number is likely a lot higher, but it is generally thought that it would go down in a first world country... The growth is currently exponential, so it's CERTAINLY a real concern until it is brought under control... But likely it would take at least a year to spread through the Human population, and very possibly 2 or 3 or never if we are fighting it...
 Quoting: Medic 25033107


More great insight. I think the R value is insufficient because for starters that model is a little elementary but without more accurate field data, the better Sim models can't help us improve our analysis.

WHO could not be updating counts because the situation in the hot zone is REALLY bad....

I am relieved there aren't any confirmed cases outside Africa, but if we don't focus on containment in Africa, it is only a matter of time before we see those first confirmed cases.

Too bad we cut funding at every level, and young students don't see much of an incentive to do field work that trains them to combat epidemic on the front lines, as it happens.

The heroes of previous pandemics faced the same challenges as we do today, but were able to build trust with the local communities to help contain the spread.

It is obvious that there is distrust and poor leadership, across the globe. Our new generation of leaders aren't capable enough. I'm still disappointed at the early message sent to Africa when whisking away and treating US doctors without any offer, or protocol established to save the African doctors who succumbed, fighting the disease with the level of sacrifice necessary: those African doctors should be celebrated because they died trying to save the world.

I pray future leadership provides more unity to stay a further crisis.
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.” - Frank Herbert

For I am not ashamed of the gospel, because it is the power of God that brings salvation to everyone who believes: first to the blah, then to the Gentile. For in the gospel the righteousness of God is revealed—a righteousness that is by faith from first to last, just as it is written: “The righteous will live by faith.” Romans 1:16-17

You can't defend your home with an iPod, gaming console, or nabi.
cegipson  (OP)

User ID: 53598041
United States
08/18/2014 08:54 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Well cegipson (OP).. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, not even the people with access to all of the information.

I have not found a single credible report of a confirmed case of Ebola contracted anywhere outside of Africa at this point.. Not on social media, forums, twitter, Google,YouTube the news etc... I would not be shocked to find out it was being suppressed, but I don't expect it would be necessary at this point.

Based on the available information, realistic spread of the virus, and the history of the epidemic to date, I would estimate it will not infect a million people until about Christmas. Even if it were currently in the united states, it would take several months to infect enough people, that you would be at any significant risk of being infected. You are much likely to be struck by lightning right now, and probably for the next few months.

Basically this is something to watch. It will more than likely begin to take a serious toll on Africa first, and infect less diligent countries on a small scale. There will likely only be a handful of cases in the developed world for the first several months, and the official CDC line probably isn't that far from the truth right now.

The concern is not being able to contain it. Ebola is not a particularly fast spreading disease, but without perfect quarantine, which has never been managed in the modern era on a large scale... its spread is inevitable unless we develop an effective cure or vaccine... Any reproductive number greater than 1 will EVENTUALLY spell doom...

Through the start of this outbreak in March research data showed the basic reproductive number to be about 2.7 with the intervention that was going on. That means every infected person infects 2.7 more in about a 3 week period. Keep in mind, they have actually been fighting a losing battle for months...

Right now the reproductive number is likely a lot higher, but it is generally thought that it would go down in a first world country... The growth is currently exponential, so it's CERTAINLY a real concern until it is brought under control... But likely it would take at least a year to spread through the Human population, and very possibly 2 or 3 or never if we are fighting it...
 Quoting: Medic 25033107


More great insight. I think the R value is insufficient because for starters that model is a little elementary but without more accurate field data, the better Sim models can't help us improve our analysis.

WHO could not be updating counts because the situation in the hot zone is REALLY bad....

I am relieved there aren't any confirmed cases outside Africa, but if we don't focus on containment in Africa, it is only a matter of time before we see those first confirmed cases.

Too bad we cut funding at every level, and young students don't see much of an incentive to do field work that trains them to combat epidemic on the front lines, as it happens.

The heroes of previous pandemics faced the same challenges as we do today, but were able to build trust with the local communities to help contain the spread.

It is obvious that there is distrust and poor leadership, across the globe. Our new generation of leaders aren't capable enough. I'm still disappointed at the early message sent to Africa when whisking away and treating US doctors without any offer, or protocol established to save the African doctors who succumbed, fighting the disease with the level of sacrifice necessary: those African doctors should be celebrated because they died trying to save the world.

I pray future leadership provides more unity to stay a further crisis.
 Quoting: Kezar Stanyan



And to add to the whole "confirmed cases outside of Africa" deal, how much of that is lies or truth, you know? Undoubtedly, people who have recently been to Africa are going to other countries and coming down "sick with Ebola like symptoms" but every single one mysteriously tests negative, within hours. It's fishy and scary and I think it's all lies.
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Botany girl

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08/18/2014 08:57 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
I am watching this thread to see what others thoughts are on this as well. I, myself took my mom to a dr appt today in a building next to the hospital and when she came back to the car, I had her wash her hands with Hibicleans and rinsed her hands with water. I also used antibacterial wipes to wipe her bag and shoes. I watched a lady in her car having a drink and sandwich from Starbucks (across the street)while we waited. She used antibacterial wipes on her hands, steering wheel and door handle, then she ate her sandwich while holding it with the wrap. She wasn't a hospital employee - first person I have seen being so careful of her hands being clean. I also asked a question on the Clorox site about what strength bleach kills the ebola germs and they response today, here is their response:


"Clorox Hello,this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product that is registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the Ebola virus. More information about the Ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] . I hope this information helps. Have a good day!

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC
www.cdc.gov
Information on Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola HF). Provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

I think you should be making sure everyone washes their hands as soon as they come in the house- warm/hot water, soap, maybe alcohol? Leave your shoes outside or in the garage. Don't touch your face, etc while you are out. I have hibiclens and a jug of water in my car and wash my hands at the car. If you hear of a case in your area, then I would really think of where you go and what you touch.
 Quoting: Botany girl


Really appreciate all of this insight, and it's good to know there are people out there being extra careful already. I just bought quite a few Lysol products from the store, hand sanitizer, clearner, bleach, etc. Funny enough, I worked at a Laboratory here in Utah called ARUP Laboratories, in the VIROLOGY department HAH! So I am pretty much programmed to keep up with the clean hands, no touching face, etc protocols.

I just have a really bad feeling about the next few weeks!
 Quoting: cegipson


I worked in a hospital lab- many years ago and I am with you, I can't shake this one- the planes still flying in- insanity. I was surprised the Clorox rep responded that they don't currently have a project the currently registered with US EPA as being effective against the ebola virus.
cegipson  (OP)

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08/18/2014 09:03 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
I am watching this thread to see what others thoughts are on this as well. I, myself took my mom to a dr appt today in a building next to the hospital and when she came back to the car, I had her wash her hands with Hibicleans and rinsed her hands with water. I also used antibacterial wipes to wipe her bag and shoes. I watched a lady in her car having a drink and sandwich from Starbucks (across the street)while we waited. She used antibacterial wipes on her hands, steering wheel and door handle, then she ate her sandwich while holding it with the wrap. She wasn't a hospital employee - first person I have seen being so careful of her hands being clean. I also asked a question on the Clorox site about what strength bleach kills the ebola germs and they response today, here is their response:


"Clorox Hello,this is Peter with Clorox. Clorox does not currently have a product that is registered with the U.S. EPA as being effective against the Ebola virus. More information about the Ebola virus and proper prevention can be found on the CDC website here: [link to www.cdc.gov] . I hope this information helps. Have a good day!

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever | CDC
www.cdc.gov
Information on Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Ebola HF). Provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."

I think you should be making sure everyone washes their hands as soon as they come in the house- warm/hot water, soap, maybe alcohol? Leave your shoes outside or in the garage. Don't touch your face, etc while you are out. I have hibiclens and a jug of water in my car and wash my hands at the car. If you hear of a case in your area, then I would really think of where you go and what you touch.
 Quoting: Botany girl


Really appreciate all of this insight, and it's good to know there are people out there being extra careful already. I just bought quite a few Lysol products from the store, hand sanitizer, clearner, bleach, etc. Funny enough, I worked at a Laboratory here in Utah called ARUP Laboratories, in the VIROLOGY department HAH! So I am pretty much programmed to keep up with the clean hands, no touching face, etc protocols.

I just have a really bad feeling about the next few weeks!
 Quoting: cegipson


I worked in a hospital lab- many years ago and I am with you, I can't shake this one- the planes still flying in- insanity. I was surprised the Clorox rep responded that they don't currently have a project the currently registered with US EPA as being effective against the ebola virus.
 Quoting: Botany girl


I also worked as a phlebotomist with Red Cross so I am hoping to use the knowledge I've gained from my medical career to keep my family safe. Just need to get on top of this "prepping" stuff.
_________
To die would be an awfully big adventure.
Go then, there are other worlds than these.
Ka was a wheel; it was also a net from which none ever escaped.
Medic
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08/18/2014 09:13 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
More great insight. I think the R value is insufficient because for starters that model is a little elementary but without more accurate field data, the better Sim models can't help us improve our analysis.

WHO could not be updating counts because the situation in the hot zone is REALLY bad....

Likely, they've basically said as much

I am relieved there aren't any confirmed cases outside Africa, but if we don't focus on containment in Africa, it is only a matter of time before we see those first confirmed cases.

Pretty much a Fact, it will start to spread eventually

Too bad we cut funding at every level, and young students don't see much of an incentive to do field work that trains them to combat epidemic on the front lines, as it happens.

The heroes of previous pandemics faced the same challenges as we do today, but were able to build trust with the local communities to help contain the spread.

Apart from one important one, nobody has ever faced an Ebola outbreak of this scale in the modern age, and it's only getting bigger


It is obvious that there is distrust and poor leadership, across the globe. Our new generation of leaders aren't capable enough. I'm still disappointed at the early message sent to Africa when whisking away and treating US doctors without any offer, or protocol established to save the African doctors who succumbed, fighting the disease with the level of sacrifice necessary: those African doctors should be celebrated because they died trying to save the world.

I pray future leadership provides more unity to stay a further crisis.
 Quoting: Kezar Stanyan
Medic
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08/18/2014 09:22 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
And to add to the whole "confirmed cases outside of Africa" deal, how much of that is lies or truth, you know? Undoubtedly, people who have recently been to Africa are going to other countries and coming down "sick with Ebola like symptoms" but every single one mysteriously tests negative, within hours. It's fishy and scary and I think it's all lies.
 Quoting: cegipson



Well "Ebola like symptoms" is pretty much every tropical disease and the flu if you focus on the initial ones, fever, sore throat, headache. The bleeding etc. doesn't happen until latter, if ever.

It's just statistically really unlikely that one of the first few people tested actually have Ebola rather than several other common illnesses... Only 1 in several thousand West Africans likely have Ebola right now... Malaria and the Flu etc are much more common... The suspicious part is how they keep saying suspected Ebola lol...

I posted this thought in another thread, but I suspect they are trying to desensitize the masses to it. They know that it will cause panic, and it is just a matter of time until it actually happens... So they are crying WOLF WOLF! WOLF! WOLF! Until it actually happens, so everyone doesn't head for the hills when the first person tests positive... Because even then...It will be months before there is "really anything to worry about"
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08/18/2014 09:44 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
[link to www.relfe.com]
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08/18/2014 10:25 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Officially Ebola is in the USA, recall the two or three doctors taken to Atlanta?

If you live in a major cross roads or airport hub, I would strongly urge you to keep an ear and eye on the local gossip to see what people are saying about local rumors of sick people in your area.

If not, then you just need to wait until the secondary media sources (local news/newspapers) start talking about potential cases in your area.

You do not need to start decon of your house and items you are bringing in. You do need to get a broad spectrum germicidal that will kill Viruses (not just bacteria) read labels.

I would suggest stocking up on stuff at home, unless you do that by nature (don't forget the pets).

Right now there is no real indicator that Ebola is poising a health risk to anyone in the states. Granted this might change, so keep an eye and ear open.

As for haz mat suits and ziplock bags for money and the other things I have seen suggested here and other CT sites - I would suggest passing up on those.

Once Ebola hits your area, you are going to want to keep your family in your home and keep strangers (and even people you know) out of the house.

I would also suggest if you have a screen door for the front door that you get clear vinyl (sold at fabric stores). Its rubbery, perfectly clear (not milky plastic). Use that to cover the screen of your screen door. This way should anyone show up to chat, you can talk to them from behind this 'spray barrier'. Sound is heard better than through double paned windows. Of course this step is when you have solid reports that Ebola has reached your neighborhood.

Since you have kids, once you hear that Ebola is in your state, take them out of school.
mysticalamber

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08/18/2014 10:41 PM

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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
very good info here .. thanks ..... but i would suggest that everyone gets ther supplies ( garbage bags .. baggies .. bleach .. hand scrub .. bottled water and so on ..) now before the rush starts and u can't find any .......
I7redd

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08/18/2014 11:20 PM
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Re: EBOLA- What do I need to be doing right NOW?
Let go of fear until people in your town start dying. hf
 Quoting: Seeker of Truth


Corollary Argument: Panic is more contagious than ebola.

Start panicking when you first hear locals screaming for their lives or looting and no cops show up.
Judge