Well cegipson (OP).. I don't think anyone really knows for sure, not even the people with access to all of the information.

I have not found a single credible report of a confirmed case of Ebola contracted anywhere outside of Africa at this point.. Not on social media, forums, twitter, Google,YouTube the news etc... I would not be shocked to find out it was being suppressed, but I don't expect it would be necessary at this point.

Based on the available information, realistic spread of the virus, and the history of the epidemic to date, I would estimate it will not infect a million people until about Christmas. Even if it were currently in the united states, it would take several months to infect enough people, that you would be at any significant risk of being infected. You are much likely to be struck by lightning right now, and probably for the next few months.

Basically this is something to watch. It will more than likely begin to take a serious toll on Africa first, and infect less diligent countries on a small scale. There will likely only be a handful of cases in the developed world for the first several months, and the official CDC line probably isn't that far from the truth right now.

The concern is not being able to contain it. Ebola is not a particularly fast spreading disease, but without perfect quarantine, which has never been managed in the modern era on a large scale... its spread is inevitable unless we develop an effective cure or vaccine... Any reproductive number greater than 1 will EVENTUALLY spell doom...

Through the start of this outbreak in March research data showed the basic reproductive number to be about 2.7 with the intervention that was going on. That means every infected person infects 2.7 more in about a 3 week period. Keep in mind, they have actually been fighting a losing battle for months...

Right now the reproductive number is likely a lot higher, but it is generally thought that it would go down in a first world country... The growth is currently exponential, so it's CERTAINLY a real concern until it is brought under control... But likely it would take at least a year to spread through the Human population, and very possibly 2 or 3 or never if we are fighting it...