"You slap Israel and Israel will not only slap you back but also tear away an arm and a leg and pluck your eyes out."

Tuesday, July 18, 2006
Llera: The Israeli strategy

OFFICIALLY, the reason why Israel is pounding Gaza and southern Beirut is to force Hamas and Hezbollah to spit out the three Israeli soldiers that these two groups have kidnapped. But I think there's more in the Israeli agenda.

In the case of Hezbollah, it is no less than to provide the final solution to the Hezbollah problem, and that is to wipe Hezbollah out. (Hezbollah has been involved in bombings and kidnappings.)

That much is what's emerging from the missions that Israel has so far done in the past few days.

First, it has repeatedly bombed Beirut airport, putting out of commission all but one runway and setting afire the fuel depot while sparing the control tower.

It's quite clear what the Israelis are trying to do. Analysts say this is to prevent reinforcements -- in personnel and materiel -- from pouring in from Iran, Hezbollah's patron. (At least one Internet report mentions of an Iranian 747 periodically bringing in supplies in the past.)

With the Hezbollah engaged and raining Katyusha and longer-range rockets into Israel, supplies will have to be replenished soon, and that means through the airport and the seaports.

Next, Israel has shut off Beirut's seaports, through a naval blockade, which except for one incident remains uncontested.

This incident concerns an Israeli warship, which was damaged and towed back to port after it was struck by what Hezbollah says was a UIV (Unmanned Infiltration Vehicle), a pilot-less drone packed with explosives, but with what Israel claims was a rocket, which Iranian soldiers helped fire.

Israel has also put out of commission all but one bridge in Beirut. This, in addition to the bombing of fuel depots, gas stations, TV stations, Hezbollah offices, the house and office of Leader Nasrallah, and roads. There is nothing arbitrary about all these actions.

On the contrary, they point to one game plan, and that is to keep the Hezbollah in southern Beirut; prevent them from fleeing into neighboring Syria; prevent reinforcements in men and materiel from coming in; limit internal movement among the Hezbollah , i.e., keep them fragmented and in small groups; and disrupt their means of communication. That way, when the ground troops come in to finish up, the task is more manageable. Or is it? Hardly.

One reason is that Hezbollah may have stashed somewhere chemical weapons (heaven forbid that they have tactical nuclear weapons), and that could change quickly the progress of the war.

Whatever the Hezbollah have, Israel will likely have in abundance. Worse, time and again Israel has demonstrated a propensity for the overkill -- you slap Israel and Israel will not only slap you back but also tear away an arm and a leg and pluck your eyes out.

Another reason is Iran. Many times in the past, the maverick president of Iran has vowed to wipe Israel off the map. He stands to lose a lot of bearded face if Israel -- which is the one supposed to be wiped off the map -- is beating his client black and blue.

The situation can quickly change if Iran attacks Israel and Israel unleashes its nuclear arsenal. By the time this article sees print, everything will probably be over. Israel can be expected to be in a hurry to finish everything up by July 16.

Hezbollah rockets are raining on Israeli towns near the border and Tel Aviv, 70 kms inland, has already been alerted for possible rocket attacks. I hope that we will not wake up today with a world that's at war.

[link to www.sunstar.com.ph]