Cosmic Winter Changes Earth

Hi Phi

Are you tracking that element? ?Filament? Wondering what your thoughts were.

:-)

Yea was just going to ask the same myself.

If it detatches while earth facing we could be in for nice light show or maybe a spot of bother with grids etc...

No kill shot though, well not on its own...

M2.4

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

.

Last Edited by Xenophon on 02/09/2015 07:37 PM

:ozbanana:

What's a million miles of plasma between friends?

I recon it could fly off in such a way to give us a headache, but it will not destabilize till it turns off the earth facing disk.

The next launch attempt for the DSCOVR mission will now be Tuesday, Feb. 10 at 6:05pm ETwith a backup launch opportunity on Wednesday, Feb 11 at 6:03 ET. Weather for an attempt today, Feb.9, is unfavorable.

Watch the launch live on NASA Television. Coverage of Tuesday's launch will begin at 5 p.m. ET [link to www.nasa.gov]

[link to www.nesdis.noaa.gov]

DSCOVR Successfully Launched

Some slightly good news.

The northern pole of the sun is at it's highest value since 2013.

I would like to call this solar cycle over, but I don't think we can yet.
[link to wso.stanford.edu]

2014:12:18_21h:07m:13s -6N -40S 17Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf -36Sf 19Avgf
2014:12:28_21h:07m:13s -4N -43S 19Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf -36Sf 19Avgf
2015:01:07_21h:07m:13s 3N -42S 22Avg 20nhz filt: 2Nf -37Sf 20Avgf
2015:01:17_21h:07m:13s 9N -45S 27Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf -38Sf 20Avgf
2015:01:27_21h:07m:13s 18N -41S 29Avg 20nhz filt: 3Nf -39Sf 21Avgf

Still, it's moving in the right direction.

The Kp index has gone back to 4.
We are in another geomagnetic storm watch.

Forecast over the next three hours is 5.7.

Starting to see some jolts at the Kiruna station.
The Kp index is already 5 there.
[link to www.irf.se]

We are still seeing some instability in the magnetosphere.
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It's holding for now, but we have been getting some density spikes, and it will not take much more at this rate.


Not looking good.
[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Steady as she goes, sir.

We'll make it through this and live to sail to new and far distant shores.



Hi Phi.

I missed being here.

It's only a minor disturbance.
It might be alarming that so little is causing a geomagnetic storm, but we have been through worse.

Full steam ahead.

How are you Lil Sis?

Doing well, Phi. Made it through a localized disturbance called the flu and am pulling back onto course.

And you? I have missed checking in for updates from the captain and crew. Have you escaped the blizzards and freezes and flus and all the creepy crud that is being dumped on us?







These little perturbances might be a new sort of weather, one we have not seen before.

These little disturbances are driving the weather past what the weather man can forecast.

It's been quite hot in my area.
It was a little cold and ice yesterday, but the sun was shining this morning. There is another system moving through right now, but it has been overly warm in my area.

I'm sorry you got the flu, that's never fun.

What have you been up to?
Anything new and exciting?

Well, actually, maybe not exciting, but different. Last night I built a sort of prototype of a refinement on the candle in the clay pot heaters that got so much You Tube time last year. There is so much emergency kind of weather going on (as you mentioned) that I thought it would be good to experiment. I thought of the popcorn tin, because if I can develop appreciable heat, it could also serve as a little stove top water heater.

We have an unheated storeroom, lightly insulated in a shed, and it go to 31 last night, by way of background, That is where I tried it out. It did not make much heat. See refinements below.

I got one of those big popcorn tins to use instead of a big clay pot, I used some candles in glass, tall and thin, like the Catholic candles you can buy with Virgin Mary picture on them. Only these are just plain. I thought they might be less messy than regular pillar candles and also safer.

These are the refinements I will need to make, at this point, to get any appreciable heat, (Although 1 candle burned all night)

1. Do not use enclosed candles, the more air gets to the candle the better, glass cuts down circulatation.

2. Make sure the wicking is substantial. The wick on these candles was too thin to develop a hearty flame

3. More air circulation needed than 1" a base of tin. Probably will end up putting some draft holes around the bottom of the tin (which is actually the top).

4. Use multiwick candle for heat.

Last year I tried it with the clay pot and it worked reasonably well except it is messy,

I had a nice 3 wick candle that worked the best. It burned for days and put out appreciable heat. I will make one using a small cookie tin 6" diameter like you see at Christmas, and some scrap candle.

I had it in a greenhouse that had thick straw mulch on the ground, and I put it in a washtub because of fire hazard.

So that is what is new at the Lil Sis household, a little light weight experimentation.

Kp index is at 5.
[link to solarham.net]

We are in a G1 geomagnetic storm.

I feel ya there.
I am working on my own prototype.
It should work a lot better than candles.
That's all I can say now, but it might help you rest knowing others are thinking along the same lines.

:)

Indeed it does make me feel better.

I was a little down at the heart reading the regional blizzard threads, to find that people do not know how to build a fire in their fireplace, have not even tried and experimented, are so dependent on commercial heat that they will be lucky to survive if we have a series of dangerous storms with power outages.

We have lost too much too fast as a culture.

Please keep me posted on your experiments!

ps. If you live where there is sun, you can take one of those clear glass christmas bulbs that you can buy at Joann or Michael's, fill it with water and use it to focus the sun's beam on wood or paper to make a fire. Excellent fire starter. Be careful, it can start a fire a lot faster than you thing.

the amazing thing is that you can see the little "salamander" fire creature captured in the water just before the fire starts. It is worth doing just to see the little thing.

I will keep you posted.
I wanted to be done with my prototype already, but I am making progress. I ordered some parts... so that's a start.

I have never started a fire with a christmas bulb before.
I do want to try that. :)

The Kp index made it to 6 at Kiruna.
[link to www.irf.se]

The magnetosphere is trying to make a recovery, but is having a hard time as the solar wind is still variable.

In the mean time, earthquakes are running a muck.
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]

Large earthquakes are normally suppressed while the Kp index is high, so this could be a sign if the kp starting to fall, and get are getting magnetic reconnections.

A quick look at the CCMC data shows otherwise.
ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ccmc-swrt-display/SWMF-RCM/mhd//ycut2.gif
​

We are seeing some disturbance in Canada, but likely there is more happening in Europe than North America right now.
[link to www.spaceweather.gc.ca]

I will check some other data here in a bit.

hey phi

finally some activity up there

Lol at poles flipping when they have just been moving slowly.

It's something.
I posted some new data from on the solar polar flip today.
Hot off the press, and the data is looking better.
I expect it will drop again with the next report, but I think it's some progress.

Here is a look at the magnetosphere from today.


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

You will be amazed at the little creature you catch, just like in the old old days. I was not paying attention one day with the bulb and noticed a strange stinging on my hand, looked down and I had the bulb focused on the other hand. Ouch!

the solar pole flip process has been going for quite some time. if i recall correctly the japanese called it early on but they may have jumped the gun

is it pretty much done or is there a way to go?

It's a brilliant thought.

I started a thread the other day at GMG about apocalypse Jewelry. I think they should start making stuff that is useful.

We came up with a good one.
Ear Plugs that are actually lenses.
You could use one to start a fire by focusing the light, or you could combine both and make a looking glass if you wrapped them in a small tube.

Like you said, there are a lot of people that will not be prepared.

What is the use if they are just going to change the data how they want anyway. Marked in red...