How Would America Be Defeated?

Posted By: mikebarton
Date: Tuesday, 20 June 2006, 2:10 p.m.

If the United States and Russia are fighting a low intensity war then it begs the question: what are the elements of the Russian strategy to defeat the United States?

Russian strategy against the United States would focus on four goals:

Solidify a Eurasian security sphere against encroachment by the United States in areas likely to be used as basing regions,

deny the use of the seas where possible,

force America to defend the Western Hemisphere and American homeland to drain resources away from offensive action, and

deny America the mineral resources needed to continue the war, particularly oil.

Solifiying the Eurasian Bloc
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO] helps to secure the southern and eastern edges of Eurasia while Russia works to drive a diplomatic wedge between the European Union and the United States and China seeks to draw sub-Saharan Africa into her orbit. Recent events like the Ukranian natural gas controversy serve to illustrate Russian power to Europe. Not distant military power, but the real power to make people’s homes cold and shut down factories. A combination of a strong, solid SCO and a Russo-European “understanding” would make it far more difficult for the Americans to gain leverage in Eurasia proper, reducing American influence to Japan, Korea, Australia and England.

Sea Denial
Sea denial against the American navy is a long standing Russian goal but the decline of the Russian navy in the post-Soviet era has shifted the focus from blue water operations to defense of the littorals. The primary reason for this shift is asymmetric expense. A scenario in which a 2 billion dollar aircraft carrier with 80 aircraft can be sunk by a missile costing a few million dollars provides a truly cost-effective tactic given the limited resources that Russia can devote to naval warfare.

To this end, the Russians, Chinese and Iranians have deployed the SS-N-22 Sunburn missile, a nuclear capable supersonic antishipping missile designed specifically to defeat American naval area and point defense weapons. With a range of roughly 100 kilometers, the Sunburn is most effective in enclosed bodies of water like the Persian Gulf where it can be launched from shore batteries and arrive on target before the target can react. However, the Sunburn can also be deployed on destroyers and patrol boats. The loss of a carrier or several escorts would be a major defeat to the United States Navy who would likely pull the carrier battle groups back rather than risk further losses.

Carrying the Fight to the Western Hemisphere
Forcing America to defend the homeland and Western Hemisphere hinges on the ability to do three things: sow internal dissention in the American body politic, create terrorist organizations within the U.S. proper and develop proxies in the Western Hemisphere.

Fometing Terror and Political Strife
The first two aims are relatively easy to accomplish. There is already an undercurrent of dissent within the United States regarding the conduct of the War in Iraq and with the traditional American tolerance for dissent, it would be a simple matter for an enemy power to divide Americans against each other. Various gangs inside the United States may become “terrorist” in nature as the line between street crime and political action blur, especially in the context of illegal immigration and the spread of violent gangs like MS-13. An increase in activity by groups such as this will strain the law enforcement system in the United States and may leave more inviting targets open as law enforcement focus shifts to protecting civilians.

Proxies to Tie Down American Forces
Developing proxies in the Western Hemisphere is a goal that might not even require direct intervention although Russia and China are wise to pursue any opportunities that arise. Cuba and Venezuela present very pointed defensive issues for the United States because they are in a position to interdict traffic coming in and out of the Gulf of Mexico. Such interdiction would not only harm the oil industry as we saw during Hurricane Katrina but could also prevent U.S. barge traffic from the Mississippi from being loaded in New Orleans and sent out on the Gulf.

Whether Chavez and Castro are interested in pursuing these goals or not, the United States must treat them as real possibilities, which will force America to undertake large scale military operations in the Western Hemisphere which would futher degrade the ability to project power across either the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. This danger is amplified when one considers that the Panama Canal is in the hands of Hong Kong based Hutchison Whampoa

Starving the War Machine
Denying America access to natural resources need not be a military action. Because Russia is resource rich and about to open a Euro or Ruble-denominated oil bourse. If the dollar/oil tie is ever effectively severed then the US will have a narrow window of time to decide on a reaction before she is effectively priced out of Eastern Hemisphere resource markets. This will likely end the global reach of the American military as a global war becomes too expensive to pursue.