BULLETIN ITEM: Earth Changes Bulletin Update As Of August 9 2006

(ECB August 9, 2006, MWM)


LATEST THREAT ASSESSMENTS: This is a moment of heightened dangers. Solar conditions are beginning to build for the planetary alignments in the last half of this month. Sudden disruptions from solar explosions and sunspots could occur at any moment. Sunspots yesterday at 12 and rising. Tectonic conditions could become dangerous at any moment as a result of very strong Full Moon Perigee gravity vectors. Volcanism is down a little more as is seismic activity. FULL MOON PERIGEE SYZYGY IS NOW THROUGH AUGUST 12. Short and high energy for tectonic activity, may not produce results until the tail end of the period. Watch out South Cal, Aleutians, Fiji/Tonga, Indonesia broadly, Northern Chile/Argentina. NO CHANGE: High temperature deviations in the North Atlantic are more propitious than ever for drawing a lot more Atlantic storms into New England through Newfoundland. Carib and Gulf conditions NO LONGER propitious for vigorous hurricane season. Warm water off Newfoundland, nearly to the North Sea, may be producing enough cross vector which is suppressing hurricanes in the Atlantic this year by sucking wet air straight to the North from the Equator. All other climate factors have become transitional, chaotic, and unpredictable.


Polar Motion: - no change from last two weeks

The anomaly still seems to be slowly resolving. An expanding spiral motion in the 7 year Chandler Wobble cycle is now revealing that the largest phase shift in recorded history of polar motion has in fact occurred. Since we do not know exactly where we are yet in the new seven year cycle, we probably will not be able to completely define the magnitude mathematically for another three years or so. The phase shift may be, by present appearances, in the range of 90 degrees.

As far as the amount of displacement of the average location of the Spin Axis, this “appears” as of the moment to have recovered to within historical norms of the last half of Century 20. The overall displacement appears to have been some 83.3 centimeters of 32.8 inches, which if averaged over six years since the last MIN in the size of the wobble, (measured as MIN on the X Axis), we have averages of 13.9 centimeters and 5.5 inches compared with the approx. 12.5 centimeter average annual displacement of last half of Century 20. (These numbers by graphical dead-reckoning of the average spin location). This however is merely appearance at the moment and as should be known the wobble is somewhat irregular so it is better to base such a figure on a longer time frame somewhat more “after the fact”.

The size of this average displacement is radically less than observed last February. Here is now my interpretation of this anomaly. The Great Sumatra Rupture of December 2004 occurred while the wobble in the Spin Axis was decreasing in size down nearly into the beginning of its smallest spiral size (each spiral is about 14 months long). The Great Rupture disrupted the fluidic motion of the Spin Axis sufficiently to send it on a long careen considerably out of its “balanced” trajectory. This resulted in its sudden “arrest” in November 2005 through February 2006, which was caused by the geophysical vectors which establish the Earth’s overall balance. So the “arrest” was balance reasserting itself.

To return in equipoise, the Earth’s Spin Axis skipped literally during a 90 day period into a new cycle of wobble motion, hence the cartioid shape of the motion of the Spin Axis on the Wobble Track graphs. This of course is seen as a phase shift in the X and Y graphs which are produced by the IERS Agency.

From this I infer that all else is as before, only a little earlier because we are further advanced in a new wobble cycle than we would have been. Using past correlations as a guide, we should see a substantial increase in earthquake and especially volcanic activity fairly soon. I strongly suspect that the upcoming new season of volcanic activity, which usually begins in December closely associated with the Earth’s Perihelion phase, will set new world records. Quake activity should upsurge with the upcoming “season” of Full Moon Perigees, which will commence this very month on August 9/10 and extend through November 2006.


Solar Activity: and weather

Flux at 71, slightly rising?. Sunspots 12, rising (as of August 8), developing a new peak for the next planetary alignment on August 20 between Earth and Neptune. Astrologers I am sure will go nuts over the watery association during the height of hurricane season.. We have exited solar wind gusts from coronal holes. Magnetic A Index at 12, falling – BUT ONLY AFTER AN INTENSE MAGNETIC STORM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON measured at about 32 on the A Index. Some things are still reeling in response. It created geomagnetic disturbances which pegged the U of Alaska Fluxgate Monitor and produced low latitude auroras, but the disturbances have largely disappeared.

NASA is predicting little if any activity in storms, spots, and disturbances, but they are not in the groove here on the forming alignments and what has just been happening. Expect any unpredictable possibility, things are definitely transpiring on the Sun to produce a new round of energetic activity.

We are in Solar Min, but not quite to the bottom of the cycle. This is a good example of Summer in a Solar Min during a Global Warming Syndrome with a rising set of new peaks from some Earth and Mercury driven planetary alignments. The atmosphere is still becalmed, baking the continents, more or less, but this will begin to change in a few days. Expect hurricane season to finally arrive during last week of August and through first part of September.

Be mindful of food supplies. All this heat is disrupting normal agriculture.

Solar and Earth Magnetic:

It has been claimed as a result of studies published in 2003, most esp. by Michael Lockwood in a Nature Magazine article (399 437), that the Sun’s magnetic field had increased during the past century by some 140%. I have examined this study again, scratched my head for a long time over their charts, and done some database delving. I simply cannot buy the claim. Lockwood’s article is highly mathematical and uses a heavy load of inferences from indirect indicators to contrive a possible increase, which in even his language, “may” have occurred. No one else has observed such an increase and in fact, humanity does not have a good enough set of records to make the claim. In fact many people are concerned about a decrease in the Earth’s magnetic field but I do not see that either. Only mathematical sophistry is capable of making the inference of an increase in the Sun’s magnetic field. The simple truth is that solar wind and magnetic activity parallels the Sunspot Cycle, in fact sunspots ARE the increase in magnetic storms, which occur in an 11 year rhythm. During the past three cycles, there has been a CLEAR DECREASE IN SOLAR ACTIVITY, which clearly tells us that solar influences have zip zilch nada and nothing to do with global warming and earth changes. One last point, if you measure solar output during a peak Solar Max phase and compare it with the “average” Sun, you will create out of thin air a trend which “appears” to show an increase in solar activity, of any kind you want to discuss.

PREDICTION: All expansion of planetary atmospheres and magnetic envelopes are shrinking rapidly these days as a directly response to the decline solar output as Solar Cycle 23 MINS out and readies to begin life again as Solar Cycle 24.


Volcanic Activity:

We are in the midst of I what am not certain. The number of active volcanoes are down five from last week – which probably represents some housecleaning of the list - but many of the active list are still definitely oozing lava and smoking. Etna is still rumbling, three volcanoes in the Philippines smoked often, Popo gave 65 puffs, and lava continues out of Central American volcanoes, but Kilauea is oozing a little less and the Indonesian volcanoes are clearly going back to bed. SWVC reports only 26 now active (down from 31 last week), 6 restive (same as last week), 71 alert according to the SWVC (highest alert number in four years – same as last week). I was wrong about the prior week but I am right about this past week, the tide is turning and activity is falling off for the next few months. BUT, THE EFFECTS OF THIS FULL MOON PERIGEE HAVE NOT BEEN FELT IN INCREASED VOLCANIC OR EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY. SUDDEN UPSURGE IN ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IS POSSIBLE. PLEASE NOTE THAT QUAKE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR ST. HELENS THIS PAST WEEK.


Earthquake Activity:

The impact of our Full Moon Perigee syzygy has not yet occurred but it is likely at any hour to begin. So far activity is low in magnitude and frequency for all over 4.0. Quake activity is random. But at any moment activity may become more dangerous than in several months. BE ADVISED.

Watch South Cal and Philippines carefully.


LUNAR SCHEDULE:

Perigee Apogee
Jul 13 17:36 364286 km F+2d14h Jul 29 13:03 405404 km N+4d 8h
Aug 10 18:29 359754 km F+1d 7h Aug 26 1:24 406270 km - N+2d 6h
Sep 8 3:08 357174 km + F+ 8h Sep 22 5:22 406498 km -- N- 6h
Oct 6 14:08 357409 km F- 13h Oct 19 9:36 406073 km - N-2d19h
Nov 3 23:52 360597 km F-1d13h Nov 15 23:21 405192 km N-4d22h
Dec 2 0:07 365922 km F-3d 0h Dec 13 18:57 404416 km N-6d19h

New Full
2006 Jul 25 4:32 2006 Aug 9 10:56
2006 Aug 23 19:11 2006 Sep 7 18:44
2006 Sep 22 11:46 2006 Oct 7 3:14
2006 Oct 22 5:15 2006 Nov 5 12:59
2006 Nov 20 22:18 2006 Dec 5 0:25
2006 Dec 20 14:01 2007 Jan 3 13:58


Since the New Moon Syzygies will be far from Perigees during the next three lunar cycles, their influences will be the weakest of 2006. On August 9, a Full Moon will be followed by an August 10 Perigee. Thereafter through the Fall, Full Moons should have the maximum syzygy punch on the Earth. All dates UTC.

Here is the list of the remaining Super Moon Syzygies for 2006, meaning a New or Full Moon at Perigee or within 90 per cent.

SEP 07, 2006 | 06:43 PM | FULL MOON
OCT 07, 2006 | 03:13 AM | FULL MOON

In accordance with Hotno’s remarks, the October Full Moon may be the deadliest during 2006, esp. through the Medit-Himalayan Belt.

PLANETARY ALIGNMENTS:

The Sun is almost at MINIMA – most of last week had 0 sunspots. In other words, there is very little petulant activity which can rotate into the alignment in July. This suggests strongly the Mercury | Earth alignment will be diminished. THIS MAY SAVE SOME CARIB AND GULF COAST LINES THIS YEAR. The timing of the rapid die-off of solar activity is not very predictable but it is a welcome ray of hope which may result in this Hurricane Season remaining closer to the old averages than the new trends established during 2004/05.

However, keep in mind that precisely because the Sun is mutable and somewhat chaotic in its responses to the planets, which makes exact prediction impossible and most forecasts somewhat sloppy, we could see a sudden flare-out of new activity at any time.

FORMING UP THIS WEEK ALREADY: August should lull down for the first two weeks until another double-header alignment forms up on about August 21. The Earth will align with Neptune about August 20, which will produce a minor peak in Solar Activity about August 15, while Mercury will align with Venus about August 21 and quickly speed by Saturn the next day. These passages most likely will produce another spectacular increase in Solar Activity.

ON TRACK: Beware then, THE IDES OF AUGUST. Hurricane activity will be greatly stimulated during the third week of August leading into the New Moon period on August 23. The New Moon of August may be especially ominous this year.

But wait it can and most likely will get worse about the end of August when Solar Activity is pulled out in even larger volumes by a triple header alignment on September 4.

September 4 will bring alignments between Venus and Saturn, Mercury and Mars, and Earth and Uranus. This may very likely produce a week long plateau above 50 in the Sunspot Count, along with three distinct peaks, one of which will reach towards 100.

Any hurricanes which form up about the New Moon of August 23 or during the ensuing week are likely to be stimulated THREE TIMES by the Sun, a few days apart each time.

This will be a very good time indeed to be a long ways away from Gulf and Eastern beaches. Take your last August and early September vacation in the Mountains, preferably the Rockies, or in places like Maine and Newfoundland.

ATMOSPHERIC VORTEX

HURRICANE WATCH: Much diminished for North America. Egg on the face for all predictions and predictors, including this one. But, activity will pick up as discussed above. Apparently reduced solar activity has neutralized the extremes of Global Warming for this year. If so, this could persist for another couple of years.

PACIFIC WATCH: New patterns now evolving. Seeds of El Nino are slowly emerging. The Scripps projection below may be conservative. These developments could portend an El Nino next year. In the meantime, there is water much warmer than normal stiff parked off the California/Baja coasts. This is probably partly to blame for the becalming of the atmosphere over the continent. This patch should pull in some major tropical storms and in fact one a strong monsoon wind is whistling past me now.

ATLANTIC WATCH: No anomalies to report except around Newfoundland. This patch may be creating enough cross pressure pull to keep the energy from building along the Equator for hurricanes. All Carib and Gulf Basin sea surface temperature appears at about the same temperature. This will promote equi-potential for the land fall of all storms, thus these will likely be heavily influenced more by jet stream mechanics than by the sea surface temperatures.

NEWFOUNDLAND: The water off Newfoundland has consolidated into a large warm patch which is persisting strongly. As it did during the past four weeks, this will be sure to suck more floody storms into the New England area. This “pull on the atmosphere” COULD BE WHAT IS NOW SURPRESSING HURRICANE FORMATION. And in later August it could help bring in a major hurricane which hits up “high” onto New York as is now subliminally feared and oft discussed. Since it is in the ethers, the planetary alignments, and in the ocean charts, those who live there should be concerned about major destructive storms riding during August and September into New England and of course anywhere along the Southern coasts. Have your “battens” well fastened.

Take a look at all this on the “Anomalies Chart” at
[link to www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov]

SOUTHWEST: Not sure what is going to happen next here. While the continent baked this past week, we had cloudy scales and cooling moisture. Got hot, but the monsoon is back today blowing up a major wind and ruining my broadband connection. I gotta call them back up and get them to come out to do another signal-to-noise ratio test. I know this signal is too weak but I also know that I may not get it fixed by anyone.


THIS IS ON TRACK – BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE SLOWLY THAN LAST YEAR – I expect that the acceleration of Global Warming during the last four years will sustain a stiff drought regime in the desert latitudes of North and South America, Africa, and through the Middle East for the next several years. I believe we are likely to see dust bowl conditions widespread in both Africa and America. During the next several years, there is not likely to be much relief in Africa and the Sonoran Desert in the PSW of the U.S. The PSW probably will not see much monsoon rain except in the high elevations above 7000 feet. There may not be any relief until the next El Nino, which will come during 2007 or 2008 at the latest This pattern will continue to persist for the foreseeable future under the global warming trend. There will be occasional short-lived relief, as in late 2004 and early 2005, from El Nino wet air, but most of this wet air will probably end up far to the North and to the East, producing extremes of flooding and large numbers of tornadoes in other areas. In other words, the new normal is there is no normal at all, just a deepening of chaotic extremes.

AS PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED, BUT MORE SLOWLY THAN LAST YEAR:
Weather PATTERNS will continue to be non-normal because of the chaotic mixing effects which Global Warming Syndrome is inducing into the flow of air. All local regimes will continue to be perturbed and this perturbance will gradually get more and more surreal through this time of the rapidly accelerating Change In The Earth. No normality will be seen for at least the next four millennia. All biomes will relentlessly migrate and transmute. Catastrophic impact of the weather in some regions, such as the Carib Basin, will ebb and flow in severity in response to the modulation imposed by the 7 year cycle in the Wobble, (the Primary Axis Cycle). In general, the coast lines of the Gulf area, including Florida, are in process of being destroyed and this process will accelerate. REVISED AUGUST 2006: A REPRIEVE ON THIS PROJECTION BELOW DURING SOLAR MIN. It is likely that North Americans will give up on the Gulf Coast. The islands in the Carib Basin will face the same issues and abandonment of some of these will commence as well during the next four years. This process may not start until Solar Cycle 24 is well advanced. It should be noticeable by 2009, possibly earlier depending upon how much solar and tectonic activity emerges to feed into the Global Warming Syndrome.

SCRIPPS EL NINO WATCH: - no change since June 5
see [link to meteora.ucsd.edu]

“Forecast Summary (Updated August 1 2006): The model is forecasting the current cold conditions to be replaced by mild warm conditions by the end of 2006.”

ECB Commentary: Right on. I expect now to see El Nino arrive during the Fall of 2007 to last through the Spring of 2008. This coming El Nino probably will be driven by a record-breaking increase in world volcanism during late 2006 and through 2007. The El Nino will break a lot of climate/weather records.


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Best Wishes, Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA at [email protected]
Master Website Index is at: [link to www.michaelmandeville.com]