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Why is gasoline cheap?

 
Green Man
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User ID: 108824
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09/26/2006 12:47 AM
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Why is gasoline cheap?
You gotta love this. A change in the composition of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index required funds to sell gasoline futures to reduce their positions to match the index.

Just for reference, our new Treasury Secretary is Henry Paulson. Until recently the Chairman of Goldman Sachs. He was confirmed by the Senate on June 28th. The index change happened two weeks later.

"Hank, if you can drop the price of gas in time for the election, we'll make you Treasury Secretary."

But hey, I don't believe in conspiracies or anything...

From here:

[link to financialsense.com]

(NOTE: that link changes weekly. This is the wrapup for Monday, Sept 25th.)

=======================================

RUNNING ON EMPTY

As most of you folks who drive a car are more than aware, over the past six weeks we’ve all been on the receiving end of welcome reprieve in the price of gas at the pumps. In fact, a good many commodity prices have moderated somewhat over the course of the summer.

While I “welcome” cheaper gas just as much as the next guy, I also like to get my head around the reason for precipitous price movements – particularly in prices of commodities that have such a profound influence in my life. After all, it’s often said that knowledge is empowering, isn’t it?

Well, if you happen to be a “Commodities Bull” - last week [Thursday, September 21, 2006] the Wall Street Journal ran an inauspicious article in “Section C” titled, Some Investors Lose Their Zest For Commodities. With the article being “buried” in Section C and the fact that the newsy bit received zero TV time – I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you all missed it.

One person who did not “miss it” was Bill King – he of the King Report fame. Not only did Mr. King “not miss it,” he quickly understood the implications of the content of the article, namely that,

Goldman Sachs [on July 12] tweaked the composition of their “benchmark” Goldman Sachs Commodity Index [GSCI].

Not A Big Deal, Right?

For those of you who might figure a little “tweaking” of an index is not such a big thing, you might want to consider this;

“The Pimco fund has a rival in Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund (QRAAX), which doesn’t use commodity swaps and is therefore unaffected by the SEC ruling. It tracks the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, which is much more volatile than Pimco’s benchmark.”

Or this,

“It is public knowledge that PGGM and ABP, two of the largest pension funds in the world, are benchmarked to commodities via a passive allocation to the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, with ABP between 2-4% and PGGM 4%. Since ABP manages $155bn and PGGM $50bn,….”

So let’s just say “a little tweak” in the composition of the much watched and followed Goldman Sachs Commodity Index can [and does] have a profound influence on the composition of funds and institutional money that is tracking it.

The Tweak…

So here is what Goldman Sachs did to the GSCI,

Prior to Goldman's revision of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in July, unleaded gas accounted for 8.45% (dollar weighting) of the GSCI. Now unleaded gas is only 2.30%.

So What’s Wrong With This?

As Bill King points out,

“Goldman's changes probably induced arbs, commercial hedgers, and other traders to sell September and October unleaded gasoline future contracts to avoid possible (settlement, delivery, etc.) problems.

September futures expired in August; October contracts expire September 29. So unleaded gasoline prices collapsed in August and September.”

I would like to “restate” what Mr. King said: What this means folks, is that hedge funds and institutional money that “TRACKS THE INDEX” were FORCED TO SELL 75% of their gasoline futures to conform with the reconstituted GSCI. And if anyone hasn’t noticed the timing of the price of the gasoline price collapse…just in time for November’s Mid Term Elections!
Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself.

Hey! I'm a Zen Master! And I thought I was just lazy.
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 12:50 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I SMELL CONSPIRACY!

:bushhitler:
Anonymous Coward
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Argentina
09/26/2006 12:55 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
Maybe its so you fucktards have a daily talking point to distract you

job done hi

tard
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 01:08 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
This should be pinned, it was just the kind of info I was looking for as a reason for the recent gas price collapse.

OP, any idea what happens AFTER November elections when the repulicans steal it again? Gas prices shoot back up?
MythGnomer

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09/26/2006 01:09 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
it is obvious to me why, to make the voters happy until the elections, then they will jump back up, i know this because i live in Oregon, and the local news keeps reporting that the national price of gas has dropped, except here in Oregon it is still high, that gives you a clue, because they know Oregon is a democrat state so there is no reason to make us happy. sad but true. and obvious.




protest
Green Man  (OP)

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09/26/2006 01:21 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
This should be pinned, it was just the kind of info I was looking for as a reason for the recent gas price collapse.

OP, any idea what happens AFTER November elections when the repulicans steal it again? Gas prices shoot back up?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 147818



I think four things came together to make oil (and gasoline) prices drop so sharply:

1. We had a mild hurricane season. That was legitimate (both the price premium before, and the drop now).

2. This time of year has weak demand, due to the end of the heavy driving season. Last year was abnormal because of Katrina/Rita. The fall refinery maintenance season hasn't started yet. Prices are usually kind of weak now.

3. Market manipulation for the election. The Republicans were getting beaten up in the polls because of gasoline prices. The Goldman Sachs thing was one of the manipulation mechanisms.

4. Easing of the rhetoric on Iran. This happened after Lamont beat Leiberman, and the British "terror scare" didn't give Bush a bump in the polls. They decided to wait until after the election. The additional drop in oil prices was a side benefit.


Yes, I think after the elections we will go back to the new normal, which is $3 a gallon and $75 a barrel. If they move on the Iran thing, we are looking at $4/$100.
Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself.

Hey! I'm a Zen Master! And I thought I was just lazy.
Kaytee

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09/26/2006 01:22 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I don't know why it's so cheap but I'm likin' it! I filled up at $2.11 gal today!
Mask

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09/26/2006 01:22 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I bought regular at 1.99 a gallon last night.

still voting out every incumbant i can
Just one puzzle piece, of the jigsaw whole.
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 01:26 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
It is so much bigger than an election.......

it is the economy stupid
Mask

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09/26/2006 01:26 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
"it is the economy stupid"

are you saying the economy is getting better?
Just one puzzle piece, of the jigsaw whole.
captain obvious

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09/26/2006 01:46 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
"Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that is the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it."

From page 405 of Rockefeller's 2002 book Memoirs.

to force on the people a more integrated global economic structure
captain obvious

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09/26/2006 01:52 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
A few times in this journey, Mr. Savo asked the nature of their journey. Dr. Tesla remained unwilling to disclose any information, speaking rather directly to this issue. Taken into a small garage, Dr. Tesla walked directly to a Pierce Arrow, opened the hood and began making a few adjustments. In place of the engine, there was an AC motor.

This measured a little more than 3 feet long, and a little more than 2 feet in diameter. From it trailed two very thick cables which connected with the dashboard. In addition, there was an ordinary 12 volt storage battery. The motor was rated at 80 horsepower.

Maximum rotor speed was stated to be 30 turns per second. A 6 foot antenna rod was fitted into the rear section of the car.

Dr. Tesla stepped into the passenger side and began making adjustments on a "power receiver" which had been built directly into the dashboard.

The receiver, no larger than a short-wave radio of the day, used 12 special tubes which Dr. Tesla brought with him in a boxlike case.

The device had been prefitted into the dashboard, no larger than a short-wave receiver. Mr. Savo told Mr. Ahler that Dr. Tesla built the receiver in his hotel room, a device 2 feet in length, nearly 1 foot wide, a 1/2 foot high.

These curiously constructed tubes having been properly installed in their sockets, Dr. Tesla pushed in 2 contact rods and informed Peter that power was now available to drive.

Several additional meters read values which Dr. Tesla would not explain. Not sound was heard. Dr. Tesla handed Mr. Savo the ignition key and told him to start the engine, which he promptly did. Yet hearing nothing, the accelerator was applied, and the car instantly moved. Tesla's nephew drove this vehicle without other fuel for an undetermined long interval.

Mr. Savo drove a distance of 50 miles through the city and out to the surrounding countryside. The car was tested to speeds of 90 mph, with the speedometer rated to 120.

After a time, and with increasing distance from the city itself, Dr. Tesla felt free enough to speak. Having now become sufficiently impressed with the performance of both his device and the automobile.

Dr. Tesla informed his nephew that the device could not only supply the needs of the car forever, but could also supply the needs of a household - with power to spare. When originally asked how the device worked, Tesla was initially adamant and refused to speak.

Many who have read this "apocryphal account" have stated it to be the result of an "energy broadcast". This misinterpretation has simply caused further confusions concerning this stage of Tesla's work. He had very obviously succeeded in performing, with this small and compact device, what he had learned in Colorado and Shoreham.

As soon as they were on the country roads, clear of the more congested areas, Tesla began to lecture on the subject. Of the motive source he referred to "a mysterious radiation which comes out of the aether". The small device very obviously and effectively appropriated this energy.

Tesla also spoke very glowingly of this providence, saying of the energy itself that "it is available in limitless quantities".

Dr. Tesla stated that although "he did not know where it came from, mankind should be very grateful for its presence".

The two remained in Buffalo for 8 days, rigorously testing the car in the city and countryside. Dr. Tesla also told Mr. Savo that the device would soon be used to drive boats, planes, trains, and other automobiles. Once, just before leaving the city limits, they stopped at a streetlight and a bystander joyfully commented concerning their lack of exhaust fumes.

Mr. Savo spoke up whimsically, saying that they had "no engine". They left Buffalo and traveled to a predetermined location which Dr. Tesla knew, an old farmhouse barn some 20 miles from Buffalo. Dr. Tesla and Mr. Savo left the car in this barn, took the 12 tubes and the ignition key, and departed.
Mr. PredictorModerator
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09/26/2006 01:55 AM

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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
ok, for the last time ... while world tensions will often spike the price of oil, the oil producing cartel makes sure the price falls just below the viable price of alternative fuels ... as much as we distrust Bush, this little price game has been going on since the beginning of the auto/petrol economy early last century

so there !!!!
"If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 02:19 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
Gas isn't cheap. You have been conditioned. It should be in the $1.20-$1.40 range.
Mr. PredictorModerator
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09/26/2006 02:26 AM

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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
Gas isn't cheap. You have been conditioned. It should be in the $1.20-$1.40 range.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 147170


why ???
"If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 02:35 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
why ???
 Quoting: Mr. Predictor


um. we are being over charged. Oil companies are making record profits. I do not care if you say its a supply and demand thing or whatever. The bottom line is oil companies are making huge profits.
Exxon/Mobil made a $36.1 billion profit for 2005. They are getting it cheap and selling it for way too much.
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 02:38 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
and furthermore, there is the tax thing too. Maybe next time the oil companies go before Congress they will have to swear in.

[link to www.house.gov]
Mr. PredictorModerator
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09/26/2006 02:38 AM

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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
why ???


um. we are being over charged. Oil companies are making record profits. I do not care if you say its a supply and demand thing or whatever. The bottom line is oil companies are making huge profits.
Exxon/Mobil made a $36.1 billion profit for 2005. They are getting it cheap and selling it for way too much.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 147170


buy stock in the oil companies
"If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 02:39 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
yea sure. I will just yank 2k out of my ass and set up an account and get right on it.
Mr. PredictorModerator
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09/26/2006 02:45 AM

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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
yea sure. I will just yank 2k out of my ass and set up an account and get right on it.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 147170


Exxon closed today at about $65 a share. Schwab charges $13 a transaction. Help yourself to as much profit as you want.
"If there is a new fascism, it won't come from skinheads and punks; it will come from people who eat granola and think they know how the world should be." - Brian Eno
Dino1

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09/26/2006 03:12 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
The article is interesting in terms of the % change in unleaded futures. One could argue that the index was overweighted in unleaded though given the run up in oil over the past year and it was time to lighten up the position.

I would agree the timing is nice though
Dino1

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09/26/2006 03:24 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
So gasoline and all other oil derivatives trade off of the underlying commodity - oil.

So crude has dropped to 60 from the mid 70s and this can't be explained away by lessening gas futures in the index.

so gas does have to trade in relation to the cost of crude based on refining costs

But again dumping a lot of gas futures quickly would cause gas to be cheaper.
Dino1

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09/26/2006 03:49 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I need to think about this more, but if this report is accurate there would be a localized drop in gas prices in the US.

Oil is a similar price globally so one would expect after the selling that arbitragers would buy up gasoline and sell oil futures and then wait for the spread to tighten.

Because the out of whack relationship would have to correct as gas and oil prices are linked.

Keep in mind this was massive futures selling. Someone is buying the futures and ultimately taking physical delivery of the gas.

So really when you look at it the funds would have lost money in a rapid decline and the buyers such as refineries or oil companies would take physical deliver at a lower cost.

I don't think any of this is indicative of a change in actual demand for gas.

The main thing is that crude prices are lower, hence lower gas prices.

The oil market is enormous and hard to manipulate. Traders can manipulate it short-term if say a pipeline blows up.

THe best way to manipulate it other than less demand is to play with supply up or down.
Katarina
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09/26/2006 04:00 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I am along the lines of thinking, that our Gulf Coast didn't get slammed by Hurricanes as has been the norm in the past few years....therefore the gas that was stockpiled up for evacuations, to supply the people exiting the areas to be hit... you know how the people would of blamed the politicians, (BUSH) if there wasn't enough gas. Well, so far so good, no major storms, so therefore, a surplus in gas, and lower prices... but oh that's right blame a politician for that too ?
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 06:32 AM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
I wish all you dumb asses would quit calling the gas cheap.

It is not cheap you have been conditioned to think so because it went to nearly 4 bucks a gallon under these fucking asswads in power.

Wake the hell up and realize things are normalizing so they can raise their ratings. That way they can fuck us for another decade or two!
Anonymous Coward
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09/26/2006 02:04 PM
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Re: Why is gasoline cheap?
BP made $900 a second in second quarter.

fall mainainences already began.

most companies are making millions a day.

if republicans really wanted to stay in power they'd put the price where it whould be. 17-19 cents a gallon.





GLP