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US/Iran monetary war on hold

 
LTC Peachblossom
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09/28/2006 06:09 PM
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US/Iran monetary war on hold
This is very interesting...

The translation is not mine.

/LTC Peachblossom

---

US/Iran monetary war on hold




19 septembre 2006


La guerre monétaire États-Unis/Iran en suspend [link to www.voltairenet.org]

US/Iran monetary war on hold [link to www.iransolidarity.endofempire.org]



//Le département du Trésor des États-Unis a interdit, le 8 septembre 2006, à toutes les banques US de commercer avec la banque Saderat, l’une des plus importantes d’Iran. Selon le secrétaire au Trésor, Henry Paulson, la banque iranienne financerait le terrorisme (comprendre : la Saderat est la banque du Hezbollah qui vient de vaincre Israël et reconstruit le Liban). Cette interdiction s’étend en chaîne à toutes les banques étrangères ayant des sucursales aux États-unis.//

On the 8th September, 2006, the US Treasury prohibited all US banks from trading with Saderat , one of Iran biggest banks.According to treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, the Itanian bank was financing terrorism (read, Saderat is the banker of Hezbollah which has just defeated Israel and is rebuilding Lebanon ). This prohibition extends to a whole series of banks having subsidiaries in the USA.


//Accordant un entretien le 16 septembre à Emerging Markets, publié en marge de la réunion annuelle des 183 gouverneurs de banque centrale membres du FMI et de la Banque mondiale, Ebrahim Shebanu, directeur de la banque centrale iranienne a clamé l’innoncence de la Saderat. Il a souligné que pour poursuivre ses activités, la Saderat se trouvait contrainte d’abandonner le dollar. Par voie de conséquence la banque centrale iranienne envisageait de vendre partiellement ses avoir en dollars et de ne plus utiliser cette monnaie. M. Sheibani a poursuivi en indiquant qu’en cette circonstance, l’Iran avait choisi de déplacer ses transactions internationales vers des chambres de compensation saoudiennes ou bahreinies.//

In an interview on the 16th September with Emerging Markets, published on the fringe of the anual meeting of the 183 governors of the central bank members of the IMF and the World Bank, Ebrahim Shebanu, director of the Iranian central bank has declared Saderat's innocence. He underlined that in order to continue its activities, Saderat found itself constrained to abandon the dollar. As a result, the Iranian central bank envisaged partial sale of its dollar holdings and abandoning the use of that currency.Mr Shebanu added that, given this circumstance,Iran had decided to transfer its international transactions to clearing houses in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

//Du coup, le sommet des gouverneurs de banque centrale, qui devait débattre de la réforme des institutions financières internationales, a été dominé par le conflit monétaire états-uno-iranien. Plusieurs responsables, comme le gouverneur de la banque centrale allemande, Axel Weber, ont assuré que la vente des réserves de dollars iraniennes était improbable. D’autres ont fait observer que l’Iran a cessé d’établir ses nouveaux contrats pétroliers en dollars, rendant possible la vente partielle de ses réserves en dollars. Or, la fragilité de la monnaie états-unienne est telle qu’une vente rapide pourrait provoquer une forte récession outre-Pacifique.//

Suddenly, the summit, which was meant to debate the reform of international financial institutions, was dominated by a finacial conflict between Iran and the USA. Several representatives, such as the governor of the German central bank,assured us that the sale of Iranian dollar reserves was unlikely. Others observed that Iran had already stopped using dollars in new oil contracts, making partial sale of her reserves possible. The fragility of the US currency means that such a sell-off could provoke a major recession on the other side of the atlantic.

//En définitive, face au risque de déstabilisation générale, les États-Unis ont cédé et laissé le gouverneur de la banque centrale du Japon annoncer qu’il compenserait sur les marchés internationaux les échanges de la Saderat, en violation des directives US. Il n’y aura donc pas de crise, mais il est clair qu’en cas de guerre états-uno-iranienne, le dollar serait très gravement menacé.//

Faced with the risk of global destabilization, the US gave way allowing the governor of the Japonese central bank annonce that he will compensate any sell-off by the Iranians, in violation of US directives. There will then be no crisis, but it is clear that in the event of a war between Iran and the USA, the dollar will be gravely threatened.
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Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2006 06:18 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
The article does not state the amount of US reserves that Iran is holding. I do not believe that liquidation of those assets would pose the problem suggested, as transfer thru a Saudi or German bank was offered as a compromise. More telling, however, is the decline of the US dollar as the currency of the world when so many nations have had it with the US fiat currency, not to mention US foreign policy whose interests are contrary to those nations not seeking enslavement to the FED or the IMF.
LTC Peachblossom  (OP)

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09/28/2006 06:59 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
Thanks for your input, 148838! To be honest I lack the competence to analyze the implications of the US-Iranian exchange of moves.

What caught my attention was that the IOB obviously is under implementation, yet there has been very little in the news about it lately.

For an "economic imbecil" like me it also looks like the move from US treasury prompted countermoves from Iran that increases the risk of of a rapid devaluation of the dollar, as if the idea was to accelerate the inevitable effect that IOB would have in the longer term anyway.

To me it seems to raise the stakes considerably for an eventual attack on Iran, making it more expensive and even more risky than it already was. To my untrained eyes, that is.

Love,
/LTC Peachblossom
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Old-fashioned Catholic

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09/28/2006 07:05 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
Few Americans realize that the status of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is effectively an *enormous* subsidy to us from the rest of the world. The fact that the rest of the world is willing to hold dollars instead of immediately demanding goods and services means that the world is effectively lending us money for years on end at *zero* interest.

Americans need to remember, then, that a large part of our high standard of living is simply a kind of leeching off the rest of the world.
Anonymous Coward
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09/28/2006 07:31 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
I noticed at the end of the article:


"the US gave way allowing the governor of the Japanese central bank announce that he will compensate any sell-off by the Iranians, in violation of US directives. "


And 'OFC' added:

"...a large part of our high standard of living is simply a kind of leeching off the rest of the world."


It seems that the Japanese would step in an absorp the funds. They could use the funds to buy US T-Bills. The interest rate in Japan is @ 1% and @ 4.75% in the US.

The 'violation of US directives,' to me, seems that the US told the Internation Bankers to refuse to take the financial assets, but Japan was allowed to defray the situation as the overall cost to Japan would be profitable and not detrimental to the US from a 'currency' viewpoint.


With respect to 'standard of living,' the US is quickly becoming a land of 'have' and 'have nots' with an increasing disparity of wealth distribution. In a global economy, many of the developing countries owe the US quite a bit for growth rates in the @ 12% range. It is true that the US is 'using' them, but they too are prospering more than they would if not for US.

The problems that lie ahead need to resolve what is reasonable and what is excessive in an efficient allocation of the world's resources, and giving other countries 'worthless dollars' for their natural resources is not an honest path. I suggest the US needs a more 'balanced' approach free from military 'protection' and the threat of the World Bank and the IMF to achieve an equitable distribution of wealth and opportunity.

Unfortunately, the US thinks that "more" is "better" and rather than providing growth rates in some reasonable proportion to population growth, the idea of prosperity for the people at large is subservient to the enrichment of a ruling elite.
LTC Peachblossom  (OP)

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09/29/2006 06:33 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
Few Americans realize that the status of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is effectively an *enormous* subsidy to us from the rest of the world. The fact that the rest of the world is willing to hold dollars instead of immediately demanding goods and services means that the world is effectively lending us money for years on end at *zero* interest.

Americans need to remember, then, that a large part of our high standard of living is simply a kind of leeching off the rest of the world.
 Quoting: Old-fashioned Catholic


It is an interesting perspective, also quite spooky. Maybe some third world countries actually dervie a benefit together with the US, as suggested by the previous poster.

Nevertheless, let's see if I got this right. If Iran is liquidating its assets in US dollars, essentially flooding the market with something that is in declining demand, would it not depress the value of the US dollar even more? Who would buy the dollars, and at what price?

What I'm getting at are the systems effects of the move, making the Japanese promise to absorb the effect more difficult to keep due to changing global parameters such as exchange rate.

Of course the magnitude of the effects depends on the size of Iranian holdings in US dollars. This is completely unknown to me.

What do you say, is the Iranian US dollar stash small enough not to cause these rather alarming effects?

It would be very interesting to see you elaborate on the likely effects, those of you that are more used to working in this domain. As is probably evident to you, I'm not among the people initiated in these games.

Love,
/LTC Peachblossom
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Dil
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09/29/2006 07:15 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
" Others observed that Iran had already stopped using dollars in new oil contracts, making partial sale of her reserves possible. "

Is that the sign of the Iranian oil bourse, much talked about a few months ago?
LTC Peachblossom  (OP)

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09/29/2006 07:38 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
" Others observed that Iran had already stopped using dollars in new oil contracts, making partial sale of her reserves possible. "

Is that the sign of the Iranian oil bourse, much talked about a few months ago?
 Quoting: Dil 51202


Definitely so, by the looks.

It is interesting that it has not been mentioned at all in the mainstream news. IOB has a rather powerful potential, as speculated. Question is just how powerful.

This is not my cup of tea as I said, so I really welcome all inputs and insights.

Peace.
/LTC Peachblossom
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Anonymous Coward
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09/29/2006 08:09 PM
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Re: US/Iran monetary war on hold
The implication, I gathered, is that the Japanese Central Bank intervenes to absorb whatever quantity of US $$ Iran is looking to dump. The US then offers Japan face value (perhaps slightly discounted based on volume) with an interst rate on a 5 or 10 year T-Bill. Japan might exchange the cash for T-Bills outright, I am not sure.

The main point is that the hegemony of the US Dollar as the world currency is losing credibility and with it the NWO as Washington & Tel Aviv envisioned. There has been some talk about 'zones' comprising the NWO. Given the strength of the Euro against the Dollar, Europe appears to be resisting the NWO as the DC neo-cons prefer. Great Britain sided with the US in rejecting the Euro, as have the Scandanavian countries, most importantly Norway for its crude oil resources. Russia and China have also been reluctant to submit to the will of Zionist/DC neo-cons.

As for the Iranian oil bourse, I have not heard much of anything recently. Iran produces @ 14% of the world's output, and it's influence on the world market might be over-rated, but in cooperation with Venezuela could be a force in determining price directions through production manipulations.

Here in the US we have the natural tendency to think of 'us' as the good guys, and Iran and Venezuela as the 'bad guys.' What the leaders of those countries represent, however, is a resistance to the US not as the 'leader' of the world, but as the tyrant of the world. We in the US would do well to take note of the dominating role the US is taking in the world, and talking rather than taking a defiant attitude to those who do not side with US on issues of national sovereignty of other countries.

There are but a few dominoes that have yet to fall for the USrael objectives, and these are far greater stumbling blocks than the neo-ZioCons realize. The quagmire in Iraq should be sufficient reminder to these clowns hell bent on world domination that would only lead to the world's destruction.





GLP