Hurricane Joaquin strengthens, major impact on N.J. now more likely

Can strengthen to 5 briefly Tonight or Tomorrow

All it needs to do is touch the trough and the whole track changes even if the storm touches it a tiny bit cause there will be interaction resulting in a possible east coast landfall

As I stated, if Joaquin passed 75W, then this storm track must be adjusted back to the west

Looks like Joaquin is moving West again. Due west

Seems Joaquin is wobbly, just like the real Joaquin.

Link!?

Husband heard it is going out to Sea. No landfall?

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Unknown at this Point. Should have a better Idea in 12 or so Hours (At the 11 AM advisory)


If it tracks further west prior to a northern turn, that can have an increased landfall chance.

I thought it changed directions and won't make landfall at all.

A strong hurricane is harder to make turn than a weak one, thus it should track further west.

Models show that, but the storm has been near stationary for the past few days. Movement at ~6 MPH WSW At this point. If it moves Past 75 W, then the chance of a Landfall increases tremendously

Water and bread isle at Walmart in eastern North Carolina #Joaquin

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The Weather ChannelVerified account @weatherchannel 4m4 minutes ago
LIVE on #Periscope: BREAKING: Flood Alerts For Much Of The East Coast [link to www.periscope.tv (secure)] …

Edit: this one has ended

Last Edited by Simple27 on 10/01/2015 10:43 PM

The storm SHOULD have turned by now, but it hasn't. Doom is still on.

Looks like there may be a slight shift in a northern direction. Not much though

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Scratch that. No Northern Turn. Now Directly WEST at 3 MPH.


11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 1
Location: 22.9°N 74.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph


NHC still Shifting EAST.


[link to www.nhc.noaa.gov]



I suspect well see a significant shift WEST with the 5 AM or 11 AM Advisory

CAT 4++ hurricane off the Florida coast with these uncertain conditions ... yeah, DOOM IS STILL ON.

Hurricane Joaquin Devastating the Southern Bahamas
10/1/15


[link to videowall.accuweather.com]

Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 1m1 minute ago
This is too funny, their forecast track is due north of where the storm is now, but moving due west.


Steven DiMartino ‏@nynjpaweather 1m1 minute ago
This is too funny, their forecast track is due north of where the storm is now, but moving due west.


CON WEATHER ‏@CONWEATHER 3m3 minutes ago
It's moving west but it has this track? #Joaquin #notbuyingit

Exactly! It makes me think the trough over the east coast is affecting drawing it westward.


The NAM model still shows a South Carolina hit for Sunday Morning!

Last Edited by Mountainman15 on 10/01/2015 10:49 PM

That onshore flow is going to be a bitch.

Wouldn't Follow NAM 100%, but it is trending WEST. I wonder if other 0z will do similar?

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Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago

NHC 11 pm updated forecast track for #Joaquin midway between E. Coast and Bermuda, Expecting add. eastward adjust

NHC just joined the Euro model and they are showing it going well east of the US.

Going to be interesting to see if they stick with that as it just keeps drifting West...

Current position 02nd Oct 2015 04:41:34 N 22° 54.000, W 74° 36.000
Speed 6km/h Wind 213k/hr Gust 259k/hr Category Hurricane V Course 260 ° Wave 13ft Pressure 935 MB Source NOAA NHC
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
wind and pressure equate Cat4 but being reported as Cat5