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Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years

 
Green Man
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User ID: 108824
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10/24/2006 11:14 PM
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Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
From here:

[link to www.bloomberg.com]
Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Australia, the world's third-largest wheat exporter, may produce its smallest crop in 12 years because of worsening drought.

Production is estimated at 9 million to 11 million tons, AWB Ltd., the nation's monopoly wheat exporter, said today in a statement. That's a reduction of as much as 40 percent from its September [LAST MONTH!] forecast.

Wheat prices rose to a 10-year high this month amid concern that drought will curb output from Australia and worsen a global shortage. AWB's forecast cut today was its third this year.

``It's just another accelerant to the fire,'' Mike Chaseling, executive director of Melbourne-based commodity management company Emerald Group Australia Pty. said today. ``It may be further impetus for U.S. markets.''

Wheat for December delivery rose as much as 5.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $5.28 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and traded at $5.2725 in after-hours electronic trading at 12:01 p.m. Sydney time.

The opportunity for ``effective spring rainfall'' for crop development in Australia has passed, a U.S. agricultural attaché report said today.

more at link above...

Last Edited by bot9 on 08/31/2011 08:38 PM
Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself.

Hey! I'm a Zen Master! And I thought I was just lazy.
Anonymous Coward
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Australia
10/24/2006 11:26 PM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
Still the biggest in the world though and we'll still have a surplus
Green Man  (OP)

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10/24/2006 11:28 PM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
Grain stockpiles at lowest for 25 years

from here:

[link to www.ft.com]
SNIP

The world’s stockpiles of wheat are at their lowest level in more than a quarter century, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which on Thursday slashed its forecasts for global wheat and corn production.

The lower forecasts were largely attributable to the severe drought in Australia, where the forecast for this year’s wheat crop was cut by 8.5m tons to 11m. That is less than half of the 24m produced last year, of which about 17m went to exports.

As a result of the low Australian crop, AWB, the country’s main wheat exporter, said it would suspend exports from the country’s east coast due to the poor crop and review its export requirements.

To add to the global supply concerns, Ukraine has introduced licences and quotas on its wheat exports, effectively bringing shipments to a standstill. This has already halted Ukrainian wheat shipments of 50,000 tonnes to India. The USDA also lowered wheat output for China, Brazil and the European Union.



Last Edited by Account Deleted by User on 08/31/2011 08:39 PM
Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself.

Hey! I'm a Zen Master! And I thought I was just lazy.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 77197
United States
10/24/2006 11:30 PM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
I'm already getting hungry.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 60359
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10/24/2006 11:53 PM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
If the droughts get serious enough they could possibly destabilize the world's already unstable govts & economic systems, leading to depressions & wars.


A search on GLP for drought brings up a good number of interesting threads, including:

Australia drought sparks suicides
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Drought to shut down Canadian rain forest resort
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

Latest heat wave in China scorches drought-ravaged regions
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Green Man  (OP)

User ID: 108824
United States
10/25/2006 12:06 AM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
from here:

[link to www.earth-policy.org]
June 15, 2006

WORLD GRAIN STOCKS FALL TO 57 DAYS OF CONSUMPTION:
Grain Prices Starting to Rise

Lester R. Brown

SNIP

This year’s world grain harvest is projected to fall short of consumption by 61 million tons, marking the sixth time in the last seven years that production has failed to satisfy demand. As a result of these shortfalls, world carryover stocks at the end of this crop year are projected to drop to 57 days of consumption, the shortest buffer since the 56-day-low in 1972 that triggered a doubling of grain prices.

World carryover stocks of grain, the amount in the bin when the next harvest begins, are the most basic measure of food security. Whenever stocks drop below 60 days of consumption, prices begin to rise. It thus came as no surprise when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected in its June 9 world crop report that this year’s wheat prices will be up by 14 percent and corn prices up by 22 percent over last year’s.

This price projection assumes normal weather during the summer growing season. If the weather this year is unusually good, then the price rises may be less than those projected, but if this year’s harvest is sharply reduced by heat or drought, they could far exceed the projected rises.

With carryover stocks of grain at the lowest level in 34 years, the world may soon be facing high grain and oil prices at the same time (See Figure). For the scores of low-income countries that import both oil and grain, this prospect is a sobering one.

The 2006 world grain harvest of 1,984 million tons, estimated by the USDA in its June crop report, is down 24 million tons from last year, or roughly one percent. It is down three percent from the historical high of 2,044 million tons produced in 2004.

World grain consumption has risen in each of the last 45 years except for three—1974, 1988, and 1995—when tight supplies and sharp price hikes lowered consumption (See Figure). Growth in world grain demand, traditionally driven by population growth and rising incomes, is also now being driven by the fast growing demand for grain-based fuel ethanol for cars.



Last Edited by Account Deleted by User on 08/31/2011 08:40 PM
Sitting quietly, doing nothing, spring comes and the grass grows by itself.

Hey! I'm a Zen Master! And I thought I was just lazy.
Woody Allen
User ID: 156219
United States
10/25/2006 12:15 AM
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Re: Australia May Have Smallest Wheat Crop in 12 Years
Wheat, wheat, fields of wheat.





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