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Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California

 
Biochemky
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03/06/2016 03:08 PM
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Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump currently has 382 delegates.

This means Trump still needs 855 delegates to pull into the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July with the required HALF (1,237) of all available delegates (2,472).

In my opinion, the list below represents the most reasonable path for Trump to be successful in getting the required delegates to ensure being made the Republican Party’s nominee on the first ballot.

Also, please take special note that the path to success below DOES NOT require Trump to win OHIO or CALIFORNIA. The path to success DOES require Trump to win FLORIDA.

Additionally, the list was built assuming Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich stay in the primary race in order to spoil Trump's chances of gaining the nomination outright.

Lastly, the list was also built keeping the effects of a late-entering candidacy of Romney on primary results also in mind.

855 Trump delegates are still needed:

Puerto Rico 10 (proportional win out of 23 total) 845 delegates still needed

Hawaii 9 (proportional win out of 19 total) 836 delegates still needed

Idaho 12 (proportional win out of 32 total) 824 delegates still needed

Michigan 35 (proportional win out of 59 total) 789 delegates still needed

Mississippi 25 (proportional win out of 40 total) 764 delegates still needed

District of Columbia 7 (proportional win out of 19 total) 757 delegates still needed

Florida 99 (winner take all out of 99) 658 delegates still needed

Illinois 69 (winner take all out of 69) 589 delegates still needed

Missouri 52 (winner take all out of 52) 537 delegates still needed

North Carolina 40 (proportional win out of 72 total) 497 delegates still needed

Arizona 58 (winner take all out of 58) 439 delegates still needed

Utah 10 (proportional win out of 40 total) 429 delegates still needed

Wisconsin 42 (winner take all out of 42) 387 delegates still needed

New York 40 (proportional win out of 95 total) 347 delegates still needed

Connecticut 18 (proportional win out of 28 total) 329 delegates still needed

Maryland 38 (winner take all out of 38) 291 delegates still needed

Pennsylvania 71 (winner take all out of 71) 220 delegates still needed

Rhode Island 10 (proportional win out of 19 total) 210 delegates still needed

Indiana 57 (winner take all out of 57) 153 delegates still needed

West Virginia 22 (direct election of 34) 131 delegates still needed

Oregon 14 (proportional win out of 28 total) 117 delegates still needed

Washington 24 (proportional win out of 44 total) 93 delegates still needed

Montana 27 (winner take all out of 27) 66 delegates still needed

New Jersey 51 (winner take all out of 51) 15 delegates still needed

New Mexico 10 (proportional win out of 24 total) 5 delegates still needed

South Dakota 29 (winner take all out of 29) 0 delegates still needed

Trump ends up with 24 delegates MORE than are needed.
Miguel Aguilera

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03/06/2016 03:11 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
What are the odds?
The wind blows where it wishes, and you hear the sound of it, but do not know where it comes from and where it goes. So is everyone who has been born of the Spirit.
snarkModerator
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03/06/2016 03:14 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Excellent work! I'd like to know what the deadlines for any required party affiliation changes that someone might want to make in those states...then you have help with the ground game. Trump supporters need to be pounding in states where ppl still have time to register/declare party affiliation (where required)
T For Texas, T For Tennessee!


The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:16 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Sounds good, but that is assuming the corrupt Romney team doesn't steal half of those states for Rafael Cruz i.e Maine and Kansas.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:18 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It is imperative that he wins Florida or it will be a tall order to overcome losing Florida and Ohio.
Chaz Aldrin

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03/06/2016 03:18 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I think Missouri is going to be tough for Trump
Life is all about choices
Xeven

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03/06/2016 03:24 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
They can fake the result of the caucus states just as we have seen so far. Trump wins when people can vote and be counted.
I reserve the right to declare my comments and posts as satire. Nothing I post should be considered or interpreted as advocacy for illegal activity. My comments are designed to inspire critical political thinking. I only mean half of what I say and only say half of what I mean.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 03:26 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I know that Trump is polling nationally at 49% while Cruz is in higher teen digits and Rubio and Kasich each have significantly less than Cruz.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 03:31 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Sounds good, but that is assuming the corrupt Romney team doesn't steal half of those states for Rafael Cruz i.e Maine and Kansas.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71580093


I tried not to count any 'Winner-Take-All" states for Trump unless Trump currently has a truly strong lead over current contenders.

I also purposefully adjusted Trump's delegate number down for states that hand them out proportionally. I based the adjustment on what would be only a reasonable expectation for the outcome of those primaries that are in more hotly contested states.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:32 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Booboo says that Cruz is going to beat him.


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and he has never been wrong
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:33 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump is currently up an average of 18.7 points in Florida though the latest poll was on 2/25 before the Fox News debate ambush.

I'd like to see what his numbers are now.
PACNWGUY-01

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03/06/2016 03:35 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Good Job OP

budxn
There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS.

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FredAllen

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03/06/2016 03:35 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump will be fighting ad campaigns that are being aired 24/7 against him by the billionaire oligarchy establishment who is pushing Rubio, the yes man, Bubbles Boy -- Rubio is just a mindless, drug popping puppet.

That aside, Trump was badly wounded in the last debate -- he really needs to get his public speaking act under control and be more measured in consistent in HOW he relays his message. His best format is the large press conference, and he should do that more, because the media also loves it, and they are starved for politicians to actually face questions and answer them on camera, which Obama has refused to do for years, and which Clinton refuses to do to this day.

Every other day he should call a press conference and make an announcement or clarification about one of his key positions, so that people will stop believing the lies that are run against him in the ads.

His biggest problem is sleep deprivation. He's a workaholic and sleeps at most four hours a night, maybe less. He has to allow himself more sleep so he can think a bit more clearly when he is being assailed at the debates. Personally, I think if he just avoids the set ups (the debates) and focuses on press conferences instead, which are unscripted and a lot more genuine than the debates, he will regain the traction he lost after the last debate.
Biochemky  (OP)

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
It is imperative that he wins Florida or it will be a tall order to overcome losing Florida and Ohio.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 71580093


I think those who are against Trump in the Republican establishment are counting on Trump thinking that he MUST get both Florida and Ohio or he will lose later when he misses potentially in California.

However, these individuals are missing the fact that Trump will do very well in New York, fairly well in Illinois, and he is expected to take Pennsylvania.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:41 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Excellent work! I'd like to know what the deadlines for any required party affiliation changes that someone might want to make in those states...then you have help with the ground game. Trump supporters need to be pounding in states where ppl still have time to register/declare party affiliation (where required)
 Quoting: snark


You can find out online. I actually looked up my state earlier in the week. I'm registered as an independent in Pennsylvania, but independents aren't allowed to vote in the Republican and Democrat primaries in Pennsylvania (check your state to see its rules), so I need to register as a Republican. I think I have until March 28th to register for our primary, which I think is in June. I intend to change my registration just to vote for Trump in the primary. It appears our state is winner take all.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 03:41 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I think Missouri is going to be tough for Trump
 Quoting: Chaz Aldrin


Missouri IS going to be tough for Trump.

For instance, Cruz did better in nearby Kansas than Trump. However, although press accounts represent Cruz as the winner of Oklahoma, another state nearby Missouri, Trump nearly took as many delegates as Cruz in Oklahoma.

Rural and some suburban parts of Missouri also historically trend similar to Kentucky and Tennessee, both of which went for Trump.

Missouri is a mixed bag and vote fraud has happened there, so we shall see, but right now it appears to be leaning toward Trump.
Martini & Cigar

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03/06/2016 03:43 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump currently has 382 delegates.

This means Trump still needs 855 delegates to pull into the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July with the required HALF (1,237) of all available delegates (2,472).

In my opinion, the list below represents the most reasonable path for Trump to be successful in getting the required delegates to ensure being made the Republican Party’s nominee on the first ballot.

Also, please take special note that the path to success below DOES NOT require Trump to win OHIO or CALIFORNIA. The path to success DOES require Trump to win FLORIDA.

Additionally, the list was built assuming Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich stay in the primary race in order to spoil Trump's chances of gaining the nomination outright.

Lastly, the list was also built keeping the effects of a late-entering candidacy of Romney on primary results also in mind.

855 Trump delegates are still needed:

Puerto Rico 10 (proportional win out of 23 total) 845 delegates still needed

Hawaii 9 (proportional win out of 19 total) 836 delegates still needed

Idaho 12 (proportional win out of 32 total) 824 delegates still needed

Michigan 35 (proportional win out of 59 total) 789 delegates still needed

Mississippi 25 (proportional win out of 40 total) 764 delegates still needed

District of Columbia 7 (proportional win out of 19 total) 757 delegates still needed

Florida 99 (winner take all out of 99) 658 delegates still needed

Illinois 69 (winner take all out of 69) 589 delegates still needed

Missouri 52 (winner take all out of 52) 537 delegates still needed

North Carolina 40 (proportional win out of 72 total) 497 delegates still needed

Arizona 58 (winner take all out of 58) 439 delegates still needed

Utah 10 (proportional win out of 40 total) 429 delegates still needed

Wisconsin 42 (winner take all out of 42) 387 delegates still needed

New York 40 (proportional win out of 95 total) 347 delegates still needed

Connecticut 18 (proportional win out of 28 total) 329 delegates still needed

Maryland 38 (winner take all out of 38) 291 delegates still needed

Pennsylvania 71 (winner take all out of 71) 220 delegates still needed

Rhode Island 10 (proportional win out of 19 total) 210 delegates still needed

Indiana 57 (winner take all out of 57) 153 delegates still needed

West Virginia 22 (direct election of 34) 131 delegates still needed

Oregon 14 (proportional win out of 28 total) 117 delegates still needed

Washington 24 (proportional win out of 44 total) 93 delegates still needed

Montana 27 (winner take all out of 27) 66 delegates still needed

New Jersey 51 (winner take all out of 51) 15 delegates still needed

New Mexico 10 (proportional win out of 24 total) 5 delegates still needed

South Dakota 29 (winner take all out of 29) 0 delegates still needed

Trump ends up with 24 delegates MORE than are needed.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Good job on this!
A word of caution to neophyte Martini drinkers: When taken to excess, this perfectly civilized drink can lead directly to uncivilized behavior.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 03:43 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump will be fighting ad campaigns that are being aired 24/7 against him by the billionaire oligarchy establishment who is pushing Rubio, the yes man, Bubbles Boy -- Rubio is just a mindless, drug popping puppet.

That aside, Trump was badly wounded in the last debate -- he really needs to get his public speaking act under control and be more measured in consistent in HOW he relays his message. His best format is the large press conference, and he should do that more, because the media also loves it, and they are starved for politicians to actually face questions and answer them on camera, which Obama has refused to do for years, and which Clinton refuses to do to this day.

Every other day he should call a press conference and make an announcement or clarification about one of his key positions, so that people will stop believing the lies that are run against him in the ads.

His biggest problem is sleep deprivation. He's a workaholic and sleeps at most four hours a night, maybe less. He has to allow himself more sleep so he can think a bit more clearly when he is being assailed at the debates. Personally, I think if he just avoids the set ups (the debates) and focuses on press conferences instead, which are unscripted and a lot more genuine than the debates, he will regain the traction he lost after the last debate.
 Quoting: FredAllen


I agree.
Rubio just this weekend again listed 'wants government controlled healthcare' as a reason why Trump is 'not a conservative'. He and Cruz are ignoring Trump's published policy positions and just making up their own stuff about him as they campaign.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 03:45 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
They can fake the result of the caucus states just as we have seen so far. Trump wins when people can vote and be counted.
 Quoting: Xeven


Hey, I can't agree more with you on this one.

I know that Kentucky just became a caucus, rather than a primary, state for Republicans and the change/lack of adverting etc. made it more difficult to get enough voters showing up at even the right hours and places for the state to have gone in Trump's column.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 03:46 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Good Job OP

budxn
 Quoting: PACNWGUY-01


Thank you, PACNWGUY-01!

It's nice of you to say something.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 04:00 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
BTW, I consulted the listing at the following link to know how many delegates are available per state and also whether a state awards delegates proportionally or on a winner-take-all basis.

I would appreciate it if someone would please look into what happens with the states whose delegates are described as being "unbound" on the list at the link below.

The states/territories who delegates are described as "unbound" are:

Colorado (37 delegates), Wyoming (29 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates), American Samoa (9 delegates), and Guam (9 delegates).

Also, please note that I did not consider any of those states/territories who delegates are described as "unbound" in the list for Trump's Path to Success. These presently 112 "unbound" delegates represent ADDITIONAL possible delegates for Trump to get, ones that may not commit to him, however, until the Convention in Cleveland in July.

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:09 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Trump currently has 382 delegates.

This means Trump still needs 855 delegates to pull into the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July with the required HALF (1,237) of all available delegates (2,472).

In my opinion, the list below represents the most reasonable path for Trump to be successful in getting the required delegates to ensure being made the Republican Party’s nominee on the first ballot.

Also, please take special note that the path to success below DOES NOT require Trump to win OHIO or CALIFORNIA. The path to success DOES require Trump to win FLORIDA.

Additionally, the list was built assuming Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich stay in the primary race in order to spoil Trump's chances of gaining the nomination outright.

Lastly, the list was also built keeping the effects of a late-entering candidacy of Romney on primary results also in mind.

855 Trump delegates are still needed:

Puerto Rico 10 (proportional win out of 23 total) 845 delegates still needed

Hawaii 9 (proportional win out of 19 total) 836 delegates still needed

Idaho 12 (proportional win out of 32 total) 824 delegates still needed

Michigan 35 (proportional win out of 59 total) 789 delegates still needed

Mississippi 25 (proportional win out of 40 total) 764 delegates still needed

District of Columbia 7 (proportional win out of 19 total) 757 delegates still needed

Florida 99 (winner take all out of 99) 658 delegates still needed

Illinois 69 (winner take all out of 69) 589 delegates still needed

Missouri 52 (winner take all out of 52) 537 delegates still needed

North Carolina 40 (proportional win out of 72 total) 497 delegates still needed

Arizona 58 (winner take all out of 58) 439 delegates still needed

Utah 10 (proportional win out of 40 total) 429 delegates still needed

Wisconsin 42 (winner take all out of 42) 387 delegates still needed

New York 40 (proportional win out of 95 total) 347 delegates still needed

Connecticut 18 (proportional win out of 28 total) 329 delegates still needed

Maryland 38 (winner take all out of 38) 291 delegates still needed

Pennsylvania 71 (winner take all out of 71) 220 delegates still needed

Rhode Island 10 (proportional win out of 19 total) 210 delegates still needed

Indiana 57 (winner take all out of 57) 153 delegates still needed

West Virginia 22 (direct election of 34) 131 delegates still needed

Oregon 14 (proportional win out of 28 total) 117 delegates still needed

Washington 24 (proportional win out of 44 total) 93 delegates still needed

Montana 27 (winner take all out of 27) 66 delegates still needed

New Jersey 51 (winner take all out of 51) 15 delegates still needed

New Mexico 10 (proportional win out of 24 total) 5 delegates still needed

South Dakota 29 (winner take all out of 29) 0 delegates still needed

Trump ends up with 24 delegates MORE than are needed.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Your first state. I don't think Trump will win Puerto Rico.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 04:22 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
No one will win Puerto Rico (in the end).

Puerto Rico only gets to participate in the primary process.

That is why they are included in my list, the list of where the delegates can come from in the primary process for trump to earn the Republican party's nomination outright, without the process requiring multiple ballots and devolving into a very messy brokered convention.

Puerto Rico does matter, as far as the primary delegate count goes.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:25 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
No one will win Puerto Rico (in the end).

Puerto Rico only gets to participate in the primary process.

That is why they are included in my list, the list of where the delegates can come from in the primary process for trump to earn the Republican party's nomination outright, without the process requiring multiple ballots and devolving into a very messy brokered convention.

Puerto Rico does matter, as far as the primary delegate count goes.
 Quoting: Biochemky


Of course we are talking about the primaries.

And Trump will not win Puerto Rico.
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 04:25 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Also, regarding Puerto Rico, I only reflected a win of 10 delegates for Trump, out of a total of 23 total delegates available in Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico awards their delegates on a proportional basis to candidates based on the vote totals.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:29 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
I'm in Missouri and everyone I know is either voting trump, pulling democrat ballot or not voting until the general election.
snarkModerator
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03/06/2016 04:30 PM

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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
BTW, I consulted the listing at the following link to know how many delegates are available per state and also whether a state awards delegates proportionally or on a winner-take-all basis.

I would appreciate it if someone would please look into what happens with the states whose delegates are described as being "unbound" on the list at the link below.

The states/territories who delegates are described as "unbound" are:

Colorado (37 delegates), Wyoming (29 delegates), North Dakota (28 delegates), American Samoa (9 delegates), and Guam (9 delegates).

Also, please note that I did not consider any of those states/territories who delegates are described as "unbound" in the list for Trump's Path to Success. These presently 112 "unbound" delegates represent ADDITIONAL possible delegates for Trump to get, ones that may not commit to him, however, until the Convention in Cleveland in July.

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]
 Quoting: Biochemky


YES this is a question I have too. Are these delegates just up for grabs at the convention? How do they vote on the first ballot-- however they want?
T For Texas, T For Tennessee!


The virtue of courage is a prerequisite for the practice of all other virtues, because otherwise one is virtuous only when virtue has no cost. There are times when something needs to be done, and yet we know that if we step up and do this needful thing, we will pay a heavy personal price. -C.S. Lewis
PACNWGUY-01

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03/06/2016 04:33 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
They changed the rules and there are No unbound delegates anymore.

[link to www.bustle.com]

Last Edited by PACNWGUY-01 on 03/06/2016 04:51 PM
There will be a time in the not so distant future when they will hunt Liberals with DOGS.

Democrats vote for what benefits them while Republicans vote for what benefits the country.
Useless Cookie Eater

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03/06/2016 04:33 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP....even if Trump is CLOSE to the the 1237....the Republican party cannot deny him the nomination.
...not without all hell breaking loose.

If he makes it to 1175-1200-ish....that will be enough.

trpright
Biochemky  (OP)

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03/06/2016 04:40 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
OP....even if Trump is CLOSE to the the 1237....the Republican party cannot deny him the nomination.
...not without all hell breaking loose.

If he makes it to 1175-1200-ish....that will be enough.

trpright
 Quoting: Useless Cookie Eater


I really like hearing what you expressed above.

I agree that if Trump is close to half the delegates and he is still denied the nomination, all hell will break loose.
Anonymous Coward
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03/06/2016 04:42 PM
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Re: Trump's Path to Success for 1,237 Delegates/GOP Nominee Includes Florida But Not Ohio or California
Rubio just won Puerto Rico with close to 75%.

So much for that prediction.





GLP